Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Market tends to be cyclical and consumers uncertain in post-election landscape
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- Figure 1: Total planned US back-to-school (K-12 and college) spending, at current prices, 2011-16
- Little growth in school-age population and stagnant enrollment challenges market
- The opportunities
- Digitally savvy BTS shoppers fuel growth for omnichannel and online retailers
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- Figure 2: Select retailers used for back-to-school shopping, in-store and online – Parents, October 2016
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- Figure 3: Select retailers used for back-to-school shopping, online and in-store, college students, October 2016
- Many points of entry, as BTS shoppers take into account multiple influencers
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- Figure 4: Select back-to-school shopping influencers, parents and college students, October 2016
- BTS shoppers eager for time-saving innovations, omnichannel features, free shipping
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- Figure 5: Desired improvements to back-to-school shopping – Parents, October 2016
- Figure 6: Desired improvements to back-to-school shopping – College students, October 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- 2016 BTS market shows strong growth, but this is largely cyclical
- BTS shoppers and their kids are increasingly diverse
- Digitally engaged generations make up the core of BTS shoppers
Market Size
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- Planned back-to-school spending grows in 2016, a “stock up” year
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- Figure 7: Planned back-to-school (K-12) spending, in current dollars, 2011-16
- Back-to-college planned spending reaches $48.5 billion in 2016
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- Figure 8: Planned back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2011-16
Market Factors
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- Macroeconomic factors show stronger outlook
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- Figure 9: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-September 2016
- Slow rise in household income and high expenses still squeeze families
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- Figure 10: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2005-15
- Rising costs associated with raising kids also squeeze families
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- Figure 11: Cost to raise a child from birth to age 18 for middle-income families, by share of expense, 1993 vs 2013
- Tight school budgets can mean more is demanded of families
- Tax-free holidays support BTS, can shape timing of promotional activity
- Population growth among kids, teens, and young adults stagnates
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- Figure 12: US population under age 24, by age, 2012-22
- School enrollment is essentially flat, college enrollment in decline
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- Figure 13: US school enrollment, 2011-15
- More kids, parents, and college students are racially diverse
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- Figure 14: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
Market Perspective
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- Digitally engaged generations represent growing share of population
- Changes and opportunities as schools integrate more technology
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- Figure 15: Desktop and laptop computer ownership (household), April 2015-June 2016
- Online courses may transform landscape of higher education
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Walmart and Target are lead players, building omnichannel presence
- Marketing showcases new trends, low prices, and education’s value
- Traditional department stores struggle to stay relevant
- Amazon is the leading online retailer, and a force of innovation
- Customization, “kids for kids” product lines, and easy list fulfilment
What’s Working?
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- Mass merchants lead with one-stop, high-value, omnichannel appeal
- Low prices underpin Walmart’s lead position, while 2016 ads also evoke other themes
- Promoting clothing via “cool” looks for kids and deals for “moms”
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- Figure 16: Macy’s, back-to-school ad featuring dancing in halls, august 2016
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- Figure 17: Macy’s, back-to-school ad for high school students, august 2016
- Parents still want to get it “right” and prize school’s serious purpose
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- Figure 18: Office Depot OfficeMax, Get Back to Great project TV ad, July 2016
What’s Struggling?
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- Traditional department stores struggle to stay relevant
- Efforts to reinvigorate include partnerships, one-on-one service, and refreshed merchandising
- Value-oriented department stores doing comparatively well
- Online commerce is a key bright spot for department stores
What’s Next?
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- Ongoing innovation and growth in online and in omnichannel retail
- Optimizing use of individual and aggregate data
- Taking a lead from Amazon’s strengths, and innovations
- Empowering kids via personalization and “kids for kids” products
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- Figure 19: Target, Back to School 2016: The Project TV ad, July 2016
- Online tools and new apps to make shopping even easier
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Vast majority of parents and college students engage in BTS shopping
- Walmart, Target, and Amazon stand out as top retailers
- Clothing leads for K-12 shoppers, supplies for college shoppers
- Parents seek balance of price and quality, weigh range of influencers
- Free shipping and more time-saving measures widely sought
Participation in Back-to-School Shopping – K-12
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- Almost all parents do at least some back-to-school shopping
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- Figure 20: Participation in back-to-school shopping, October 2016
- Parents aged 35+ more likely to participate in back-to-school shopping
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- Figure 21: Participation in back-to-school shopping, by gender and age, October 2016
- Participation is fairly high across household income brackets
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- Figure 22: Participation in back-to-school shopping, by household income, October 2016
- Hispanic parents lead BTS shopping for 2016-17 school year
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- Figure 23: Participation in back-to-school shopping, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2016
Participation in Back-to-School Shopping – College
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- Virtually all college students make back-to-school purchases
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- Figure 24: Participation in back-to-school shopping – College students, October 2016
- Living situation shifts as students advance through school
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- Figure 25: Participation in back-to-school shopping, 2016-17 school year – College students, by current living situation, October 2016
- Lower-income college students less likely to participate
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- Figure 26: Participation in back-to-school shopping, 2016-17 school year – College students, by household income, October 2016
Retailers Shopped for Back-to-School Shopping – K-12
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- Virtually all shop for BTS in stores, three quarters also go online
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- Figure 27: Retailers shopped for BTS items – K-12, October 2016
- Younger parents favor mass merchandisers; dads choose electronics stores
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- Figure 28: Retailers shopped in-store for BTS items, by gender and age, October 2016
- Younger parents, especially dads aged 18-34, favor online shopping
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- Figure 29: Retailers shopped online for BTS items, by gender and age, October 2016
- Less affluent stick to Walmart and dollar stores; wealthier visit a wider range
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- Figure 30: Retailers shopped in-store for BTS items, by household income, October 2016
- Affluent shoppers embrace online retailers
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- Figure 31: Retailers shopped online for BTS items, by household income, October 2016
- Race and Hispanic origin impacts retailer choice for BTS shopping
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- Figure 32: Retailers shopped in-store for BTS items, by household income, October 2016
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- Figure 33: Retailers shopped online for BTS items, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2016
Retailers Shopped for Back-to-School Shopping – College
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- College students show high usage of Target and Amazon
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- Figure 34: Retailers shopped for BTS items – College students, October 2016
- Female college students favor Target, males look to electronics stores
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- Figure 35: Retailers shopped in-store for college BTS items, by gender, October 2016
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- Figure 36: Retailers shopped online for college BTS items, by gender, October 2016
- Less-affluent college students turn to Walmart; wealthier ones to Target
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- Figure 37: Retailers shopped in-store for college BTS items, by household income, October 2016
Anticipated Spend by Category – K-12
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- Clothing is top category for back-to-school spending
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- Figure 38: Anticipated spend by category – Parents, October 2016
- Moms expect to spend on clothes, young dads spend on shoes, gadgets, bags
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- Figure 39: Anticipated spend by category – K-12, by age and gender, October 2016
- Less-affluent parents prioritize clothing and basic supplies
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- Figure 40: Anticipated spend by category – K-12, by household income, October 2016
- Blacks anticipate spending on clothing, footwear; Asians on electronics
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- Figure 41: Anticipated spend by category – K-12, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2016
Anticipated Spend by Category – College
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- Supplies, clothing, food, and electronics are priorities for college BTS shopping
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- Figure 42: Anticipated spend by category – College students, October 2016
- Females spend on a wide category range; males focus on electronics
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- Figure 43: Anticipated spend by category – College students, by gender, October 2016
- Less-affluent students spend less on supplies and electronics
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- Figure 44: Anticipated spend by category – College students, by household income, October 2016
Attitudes toward Back-to-School Shopping
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- Parents seek to do it “right,” but also to please kids and have fun
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping – Parents, October 2016
- Less-affluent shoppers are more attentive to price, but still want BTS to be fun
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- Figure 46: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping – Parents, by household income, October 2016
- Older kids have bigger impact on BTS choices
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- Figure 47: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping – Parents, by age of child, October 2016
- College shoppers reuse items, prioritize price, and set budgets
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping – College students, October 2016
Back-to-School Shopping Influencers – K-12
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- School recommendations and brand familiarity are top influencers
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- Figure 49: Back-to-school shopping influencers – Parents, October 2016
- Gender and age impact influencers that guide BTS choices
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- Figure 50: Back-to-school shopping influencers, part 1 – Parents, by gender and age, October 2016
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- Figure 51: Back-to-school shopping influencers, part 2 – Parents, by gender and age, October 2016
- Household income shapes influencers for BTS shopping
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- Figure 52: Select influencers on back-to-school shopping (any rank), by household income, October 2016
- Online influencers important to Hispanics
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- Figure 53: Back-to-school shopping influencers – Parents, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2016
Back-to-School Shopping Influencers – College
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- Brand familiarity and coupons are top influencers in college BTS
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- Figure 54: Back-to-school shopping influencers – College students, October 2016
- Deals motivate college-age women; online influencers shape men
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- Figure 55: Back-to-school shopping influencers – College students, by gender, October 2016
Desired Improvements to Back-to-School Shopping
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- Free shipping is widely sought, with time-saving measures also wanted
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- Figure 56: Desired improvements to back-to-school shopping – Parents, October 2016
- Free shipping wanted by over 70% of college BTS shoppers
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- Figure 57: Desired improvements to back-to-school shopping – College students, October 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 58: Average household size, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
- Figure 59: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2017
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- Figure 60: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2015
- Figure 61: Population by generations, 2012-22
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