Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2011-21
- Segmentation
- The future
- New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
- Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
- Companies and brands
- A number of top lager brands enjoy double-digit growth
- Hobgoblin and Sharp’s enjoy rapid growth
- Craft NPD from major players
- Tesco Express, Aldi and the Co-op expand their craft beer offering
- Adspend on beer slumps by a fifth
- The consumer
- Overall usage of beer stabilises, with areas of growth
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- Figure 2: Usage of types of beer, October 2015 and September 2016
- Over two fifths of beer drinkers do so more than once a week
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- Figure 3: Frequency of drinking beer, September 2016
- Brand has the biggest sway over beer choice
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- Figure 4: Order in which factors are considered when choosing which beer to buy, September 2016
- Locally-brewed beer attracts most interest
- Fruit-based lager NPD can open up the category to more women
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- Figure 5: Interest in innovation in beer, September 2016
- More evening meal deals should include beers
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- Figure 6: Beer drinking behaviours, September 2016
- Pros and cons to smaller formats
- Providing details on hops can boost quality perceptions
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards beer, September 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Despite efforts, food pairing remains a missed opportunity for beer
- The facts
- The implications
- Nutritional labelling presents a chance to stand out among young beer drinkers
- The facts
- The implications
- It’s time to shine for the smaller volume beer formats
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Volume sales of beer remain broadly flat
- Lager dominants, but ale steals share
- Off-trade overtakes on-trade in volume sales of beer
- Fourth consecutive year of volume growth in the off-trade
- Share captured by independents and online grows
- Stability in the beer market expected to endure
- The shift to off-trade purchasing set to curb the impact of inflation
- New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
- Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
Market Size and Segmentation
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- Volume sales of beer remain more or less flat
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- Figure 8: Total value and volume sales of beer, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- Lager’s dominance in the beer market is being eroded
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- Figure 9: Total value and volume sales of lager, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- Volume sales of ale/bitter up 5% in two years
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- Figure 10: Total value and volume sales of ale/bitter, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- Stout returns to growth
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- Figure 11: Total value and volume sales of stout/porter, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- The future
- Only a negligible fall in volume sales predicted
- The shift to off-trade purchasing set to curb the impact of inflation
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- Figure 12: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2011-21
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- Figure 13: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2011-21
- The impact of the EU Referendum
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- Figure 14: Alternative scenarios for the beer market, 2016-21
- The calm before the storm?
- Consumers’ remain optimistic about their finances
- The market was in a different place in 2008-09
Channels to Market
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- Off-trade overtakes on-trade in volume sales of beer
- Ale/bitter is going from strength to strength
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- Figure 15: Value and volume sales of beer, by channel, 2011-16
- Fourth consecutive year of volume growth in the off-trade
- Share captured by independents and online grows
- Big brands make a play for online delivery
Market Drivers
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- New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
- New opportunities for premium drinks, lower/no-alcohol drinks and smaller formats
- The small tax relief for alcohol producers is set to be outweighed by other upward pressures on cost
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- Figure 16: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2004-16
- Brexit could hike up prices of imported alcohol
- Opportunities for domestic beer brands and entrepreneurial brewers
- The on-trade set to be affected by more cautious spending habits
- The new Pubs Code comes into force
- Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
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- Figure 17: Change in age structure of the UK population, 2011-16 and 2016-21
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- A number of top lager brands enjoy double-digit growth
- Tesco delisting hits sales of Carlsberg
- Hobgoblin and Sharp’s enjoy rapid growth
- Guinness returns to growth
- Craft NPD from major players
- Tesco Express, Aldi and the Co-op expand their craft beer offering
- AB InBev to provide full nutritional information for its beers
- Adspend on beer slumps by a fifth
Market Share
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- The mega merger of AB InBev and SABMiller goes ahead
- A number of top lager brands enjoy double-digit growth
- Strong performances from world lagers
- Tesco delisting hits sales of Carlsberg
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- Figure 18: Retail sales of the leading lager brands in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
- Figure 19: Retail sales of the leading lager manufacturers in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
- Hobgoblin and Sharp’s enjoy rapid growth
- Sales of BrewDog triple
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- Figure 20: Retail sales of the leading ale brands in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
- Figure 21: Retail sales of the leading ale manufacturers in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
- Guinness returns to growth
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- Figure 22: Retail sales of the leading stout/porter brands in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Craft NPD from major players
- First foray into small-batch beers for Meantime
- Shed Head: the new craft beer from Carlsberg
- Tesco Express, Aldi and the Co-op expand their craft beer offering
- More experimental NPD activity from BrewDog
- Buoyant NPD in flavoured beer/lager
- NPD in fruit and botanical flavours well-placed to appeal to 25-34s
- Lemon and lime from Kopparberg, botanicals from Lowlander
- The rise of the 330ml can
- Small cans move from craft to mainstream
- Recent launches range from Fullers to Wychwood
- AB InBev to provide full nutritional information for its beers…
- …and forays into alcohol-free beer
- Gluten-free innovation from Carlsberg and Peroni
- A number of large beer brands undertook packaging revamps in 2016
- San Miguel and Stella hope to create a premium feel
- Carlsberg looks to emphasise heritage, Marston’s hopes to modernise
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend on beer slumps by a fifth
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- Figure 23: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, 2012-16
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- Figure 24: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by category, 2012-16
- AB Inbev becomes adspend leader in 2015
- Stella marks its 600th anniversary with global campaign
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- Figure 25: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by top 10 highest-spending advertisers in 2015, 2012-16
- Figure 26: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by top 15 highest-spending brands, 2012-16
- Guinness makes big strides in social media advertising
- Support for responsible drinking of beer boosted
- Heineken continues to deliver responsible drinking messages
- …with a major push behind this same theme from Budweiser
- AB InBev ran a local campaign in Preston
- Carlsberg jumps up the ranks in adspend
- Pubs are at the core of Carlsberg’s advertising for Euro 2016
- Estrella Damm’s Vale: an example of the blurring of films and adverts
- Typically atypical marketing from BrewDog
- Other notable digital and social campaigns
- Fuller’s unites OOH and social media in its #FindFlavour campaign
- Miller brands introduces a Pint Finder App for Kozel
- Carlsberg partners with MatchPint for UEFA Euro 2016
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 27: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2016
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 28: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2016
- Brand attitudes: Guinness is seen to have strong quality credentials
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- Figure 29: Attitudes, by brand, September 2016
- Brand personality: Desperados stands out on fun and vibrancy
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- Figure 30: Brand personality – Macro image, September 2016
- Peroni has the most stylish and sophisticated image
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- Figure 31: Brand personality – Micro image, September 2016
- Brand analysis
- Peroni is at the fore in terms of engagement
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- Figure 32: User profile of Peroni, September 2016
- Desperados stands out as fun and vibrant
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- Figure 33: User profile of Desperados, September 2016
- Old Speckled Hen scores well on authenticity
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- Figure 34: User profile of Old Speckled Hen, September 2016
- Stella Artois is seen as innovative
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- Figure 35: User profile of Stella Artois, September 2016
- Guinness has an enviable all-round reputation
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- Figure 36: User profile of Guinness, September 2016
- Budweiser garners a fun image among young men
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- Figure 37: User profile of Budweiser, September 2016
- Foster’s win on value for money
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- Figure 38: User profile of Foster’s, September 2016
- John Smith’s is marred with a tired and boring image
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- Figure 39: User profile of John Smith’s, September 2016
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Overall usage of beer stabilises, with areas of growth
- Over two fifths of beer drinkers do so more than once a week
- Brand has the biggest sway over beer choice
- Promotions remain a strong driver
- Locally-brewed beer attracts most interest
- Fruit-based lager NPD can open up the category to more women
- More evening meal deals should include beers
- Age divide in preference for nutritional labelling
- Pros and cons to smaller formats
- Providing details on hops can boost quality perceptions
Usage of Beer
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- Overall usage of beer stabilises, with areas of growth
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- Figure 40: Usage of beer, by type, October 2015 and September 2016
- A big gap in usage between the sexes
- Usage peaks among 25-34s
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- Figure 41: Usage of types of beer, by location, September 2016
- Over two fifths of beer drinkers do so more than once a week
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- Figure 42: Frequency of drinking beer, September 2016
Factors Considered When Buying Beer
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- Brand has the biggest sway over beer choice
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- Figure 43: Order in which factors are considered when choosing which beer to buy, September 2016
- Promotions remain a strong driver
- Under-35s most likely to look at price per can/bottle and litre and seek chilled beer
- Under-25s place most importance on ABV
Interest in Innovation in Beer
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- Locally-brewed beer attracts most interest
- Rise of small breweries offers scope for retailers and on-trade to leverage this interest
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- Figure 44: Interest in innovation in beer, September 2016
- Interest in barrel-aged beer peaks among over-55s
- Beer can draw on positivity around barrel-aged spirits and natural cues
- Linking with bourbon can boost appeal among the young
- Flavour-based innovation and blends chime most among 25-34s
- Fruit-based lager NPD can open up the category to more women
- Interest in sour beer remains niche despite industry noise around this concept
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- Figure 45: Interest in flavour- and blend-based innovation in beer, by age, September 2016
Beer Drinking Behaviours
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- More evening meal deals should include beers
- Most 25-34s are interested in more food pairing suggestions
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- Figure 46: Beer drinking behaviours, September 2016
- Age divide in preference for nutritional labelling
- Half of 18-24s would choose a beer with nutrition details
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- Figure 47: Consumers who would choose a beer with nutrition labelling over one without, by age, September 2016
- Responsible drinking behaviour is widespread
- Under-35s most open to low-alcohol beer
Attitudes towards Beer
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- Pros and cons of smaller formats
- Craft brands have helped to make the 330ml can trendy
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- Figure 48: Attitudes towards beer, September 2016
- Providing details on hops can boost quality perceptions…
- …with unique yeasts also offering opportunities
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Forecast Methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by volume, 2016-21
- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total lager market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total lager market, by volume, 2016-21
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- Figure 53: Forecast of UK value sales of lager, 2011-21
- Figure 54: Forecast of UK volume sales of lager, 2011-21
- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total ale/bitter market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total ale/bitter market, by volume, 2016-21
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- Figure 57: Forecast of UK value sales of ale/bitter, 2011-21
- Figure 58: Forecast of UK volume sales of ale/bitter, 2011-21
- Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total stout/porter market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total stout/porter market, by volume, 2016-21
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- Figure 61: Forecast of UK value sales of stout/porter, 2011-21
- Figure 62: Forecast of UK volume sales of stout/porter, 2011-21
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