Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales growth expected to continue through 2021
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dark and white distilled spirits, at current prices, 2011-21
- On-premise consumption has room to grow
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- Figure 2: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, off premise vs. on premise, 2011-16
- Price appears insufficient means of differentiation
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- Figure 3: Spirits value, August 2016
- The opportunities
- Flavor and complexity could fuel dark spirits
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- Figure 4: Important dark spirits characteristics, August 2016
- Older Millennial interest in variety of dark spirit flavors
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- Figure 5: Dark spirits flavors, by Millennial generation, August 2016
- Craft definition varies
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- Figure 6: Craft spirits defined, August 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Distilled spirit growth to continue
- Whiskey leads dark spirit consumption
- Potential for on-premise to grow
Market Size and Forecast
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- Historic and projected sales performance
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dark and white distilled spirits, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise dark and white distilled Spirits, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Volume growth to continue, though slower
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- Figure 9: Total US volume sales and fan chart forecast of dark spirits, in nine-liter cases, 2011-21
- Figure 10: Sales of dark spirits, by volume, 2011-21
- Whiskey leads segments, with brandy/Cognac growing
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- Figure 11: Volume Sales of dark spirits, by segment, 2011-21
- Whiskey segments continue to grow
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- Figure 12: Sales of whiskey, by segment, 2011-16
- Strong growth for brandy, Cognac, Armagnac to slow
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- Figure 13: US volume sales of brandy/Cognac/Armagnac, 2011-21
Market Perspective
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- Majority of white spirits drinkers also drink dark spirits
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- Figure 14: White spirits consumption, by dark spirits consumption, August 2016
- On-premise consumption has room to grow
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- Figure 15: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, off premise vs. on premise, 2011-16
Market Factors
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- On-premise offerings may influence off-premise selections
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- Figure 16: Away-from-home new drink trial motivators, by gender, February 2016
- Millennial, iGeneration populations have positive growth
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- Figure 17: Population by generation, percentage change, 2011-21
- Hispanic, Asian populations expect to see growth
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- Figure 18: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
- Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
- Millennials as parents
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- Figure 19: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
- Hispanics as parents
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- Figure 20: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
- Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 21: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Premium offerings impacting leading whiskey brands
- Flavor fueling dark rums
- Niche attributes benefit brandies
- Leveraging production methods to communicate authenticity
Leading Companies and Brands – Whiskey/Whisky
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- Jack Daniel’s holds steady, as Maker’s Mark rises
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- Figure 22: Bourbon, blended whiskey/rye consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16
- Flavor options from Crown Royal
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- Figure 23: Irish whiskey/Scotch whisky/ Canadian whiskey consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16
Leading Companies and Brands – Dark Rum
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- Captain leads dark rum, but growth appears stagnant
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- Figure 24: Dark rum consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16
- Figure 25: Captain Morgain Jack-O’Blast Pumpkin Spiced Rum
Leading Companies and Brands – Brandy
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- Brandy options leverage premium positioning and added flavors
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- Figure 26: Brandy consumption in the last 30 days, by brands, trended 2012-16
What’s Working?
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- Hitting the Maker’s Mark
- Small batch
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- Figure 27: Maker’s Mark bourbon whiskey
What’s Struggling?
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- Christian Brothers attempts to counter loss with more flavor
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- Figure 28: Christian Brothers Apple Brandy
- Lack of category focus impacts Seagram’s
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- Figure 29: Seagram’s Hard Soda
What’s Next?
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- Novel flavors separating dark spirits from the pack
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- Figure 30: Rebel Yell Root Beer Whiskey
- Leveraging production methods
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- Figure 31: Dark spirit launches leveraging production methods
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Rum consumption trails other dark spirits
- Age related to dark spirit consumption
- Rum consumption could leverage on-premise behaviors
- Age related to brandy consumption
- Dark spirit consumption trails white
- Flavor key to dark spirit selection
- If interested in a flavored dark spirit, consumers seek spiced and fruit options
- Experience influencing Older Millennial consumption
- Price and dark spirits
- Craft opinion differs by age
Dark Spirit Consumption
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- Whiskey/whisky consumption leads category
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- Figure 32: Dark spirits consumption - Any consumption, August 2016
- Consumers drink multiple types of Dark spirits
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- Figure 33: Dark spirits consumption, by dark spirits consumption, August 2016
- Income strongly related to dark spirit consumption
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- Figure 34: Dark spirits consumption, any consumption, by household income, August 2016
- Older Millennials drink wide variety of dark spirits
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- Figure 35: Dark spirits repertoire, August 2016
Whiskey/Whisky Consumer
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- American Tennessee whiskey leading whiskey/whisky type
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- Figure 36: Dark spirits consumption – Whiskey/whisky, August 2016
- Whiskey/whisky with soda leading drink form
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- Figure 37: Whiskey/whisky drink form, August 2016
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- Figure 38: Whiskey/whisky drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016
Dark Rum Consumer
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- Spiced rum most popular dark rum type
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- Figure 39: Dark spirits consumption – Dark rum, August 2016
- Soda and dark rum leading drink form
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- Figure 40: Dark rum drink form, August 2016
- Older Millennials drink the greater variety of dark rum drink forms
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- Figure 41: Dark rum drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016
Brandy Consumer
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- Cognac leading brandy type
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- Figure 42: Dark spirits consumption – Brandy, August 2016
- Older Millennials drink brandy with a mixer, in a cocktail
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- Figure 43: Brandy drink form, by Millennial generations, August 2016
Dark versus White Spirits Consumption
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- Majority drink more white spirits than dark
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- Figure 44: Dark versus white spirits consumption, August 2016
- Non-fathers drink more dark spirits than white
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- Figure 45: Dark versus white spirits consumption - More dark spirits than white spirits, by demographics, August 2016
Important Dark Spirits Characteristics
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- Flavor leading attribute important in dark spirits selection
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- Figure 46: Important dark spirits characteristics, August 2016
- Lower importance in whiskey/whisky mash type, blend, malt
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- Figure 47: Important dark spirits characteristics – Whiskey/whisky, August 2016
- Fathers have greater awareness of dark spirits attributes
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- Figure 48: Important dark spirits characteristics, by gender and parental status with children under 18 in the household, August 2016
Dark Spirits Flavors
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- Drinkers prefer spiced, fruit, unflavored dark spirits
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- Figure 49: Dark spirits flavors, August 2016
- Baby Boomers drive preferences for unflavored dark spirits
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- Figure 50: Dark spirits flavors – None of the above, I prefer unflavored, by generation, August 2016
- Older Millennials interest in variety of dark spirits flavors
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- Figure 51: Dark spirits flavors, by Millennial generation, August 2016
- Fathers stand out for fruit preferences, mothers prefer sweetened, vanilla
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- Figure 52: Dark spirits flavors, by gender and parental status with child(ren) under 18 in the household, August 2016
Spirits Behaviors
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- Socialization, relaxation leading reasons to drink dark spirits
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- Figure 53: Spirits behaviors, by dark versus white spirits consumption, August 2016
- Older Millennials looking for new experiences
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- Figure 54: Spirits behaviors, by Millennial generations, August 2016
- Parents less likely to drink for socialization, relaxation than non-parents
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- Figure 55: Spirits behaviors, by gender and parental status with child(ren) under 18 in the household, August 2016
Spirits’ Value Defined
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- Consumers define value, mid-range, premium, and super-premium prices
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- Figure 56: Spirits value, August 2016
- Millennials drive up price points
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- Figure 57: Spirits value, by white versus dark spirits consumption - Mostly/only white spirits drinkers, August 2016
- Preferred spirits pricing varies with age
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- Figure 58: Spirits behaviors – Price point preferences, by generation, August 2016
- Mid-range, premium priced spirits preferred
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- Figure 59: Spirits behaviors, by white versus dark spirits consumption, August 2016
Craft Spirits Defined
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- Craft definition differs with age
- Non-Millennials define craft as being made in small batches
- Older Millennials driven by premium ingredients
- Younger Millennials look for unique qualities
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- Figure 60: Craft spirits defined, August 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of on and off-premise dark and white distilled spirits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 62: US volume sales of dark spirits, by segment, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 63: Total US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, 2011-21
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