Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Small increase in value sales of fish and shellfish
- Population growth should help volumes but price rises expected
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2011-21
- Companies and brands
- John West increases share of ambient fish sales
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value, 2015/16
- Premium range success not enough to boost branded frozen sales
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value, 2015/16
- Chilled fish taking bigger share of 2016 launch activity
- The consumer
- Eight in 10 people fish and shellfish eaters
- Being too expensive biggest barrier to eating fish
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- Figure 4: Reasons for not eating fish more often/at all, September 2016
- Product visibility important to buyers of fish
- Strong demand for single-serve packs
- Convenience products can add value to fish sales
- A third of buyers interested in healthier coatings
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- Figure 5: Products people are interested in seeing more of when shopping for fish/shellfish, September 2016
- Ease of preparation a big influence on choice
- Strong interest in sustainability issues
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards buying and eating fish and Shellfish, September 2016
- High awareness of two portions of fish a week being healthy
- Recipe ideas important for increasing eating of fish
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards cooking and eating fish and shellfish, September 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Bigger emphasis on promotion of fish as a healthy and affordable meal option needed to encourage increased consumption
- The facts
- The implications
- More scope to add value to fish and shellfish sales by targeting those looking for ease of preparation
- The facts
- The implications
- New products and recipe ideas offer will be important in encouraging people to increase their repertoire of fish meals
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Chilled fish and discounters drive small increase in value sales
- Mixture of trading up and deflationary pressures
- Prices likely to increase following fall in value of the Pound
- Push towards added value in chilled segment
- High-value products limiting decline in frozen sales
- Deflationary pressures hit canned fish sales
- Demand for fish for scratch cooking and ready-to-cook options
- Fish consumption failing to meet NHS recommendations
- Projected population growth set to drive additional demand
Market Size and Forecast
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- Chilled fish and discounters drive small increase in total sales
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- Figure 8: UK retail value and volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2011-21
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- Figure 9: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2011-21
- Figure 10: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by volume, 2011-21
- The impact of the EU Referendum
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- Figure 11: Alternative scenarios for the post-Brexit fish and shellfish market, at current prices, 2016-21
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- Figure 12: Alternative scenarios for the post-Brexit fish and shellfish market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Not too much to fear from any incomes squeeze
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Growth in sales of chilled fish
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- Figure 13: UK retail value and volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2011-21
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- Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2011-21
- Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by volume, 2011-21
- Higher-value product lines limit decline in frozen fish sales
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- Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2011-21
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- Figure 17: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2011-21
- Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by volume, 2011-21
- Falling prices hit value sales of canned fish
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- Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2011-21
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- Figure 20: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2011-21
- Figure 21: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by volume, 2011-21
Market Drivers
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- Fish and shellfish sales can benefit from interest in scratch cooking
- Ready-to-cook fish options can appeal to those looking to free up time
- Consumption of fish failing to meet NHS recommendations
- Falling prices should benefit fish consumption
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- Figure 22: Consumer price indices – total food, meat and fish, January 2011-August 2016
- Discounters heat up focus on price in grocery retailing
- Brexit and Common Fisheries policy
- Catering for different sizes of household
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- Figure 23: UK households, by size, 2011-21
- Smaller homes limit freezer space
- New voluntary ban in response to Greenpeace report
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- John West increases share of canned fish sales
- Premium range successes not enough to boost total branded sales
- Chilled fish taking bigger share of 2016 launch activity
- Ethical claims widespread in new fish launches
- Growing focus on ease of use claims
- Wider range of added flavours being seen for fish
- Increase in advertising for fish and shellfish in 2015
- A few big brands and retailers dominate spending
- Big advertising push by Lidl seen in 2016
Market Share
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- John West increases share of canned fish sales
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Premium ranges offer a boost to frozen fish sales
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Chilled fish taking bigger share of 2016 launch activity
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- Figure 26: New product launches in the UK processed fish and shellfish market, by storage type, 2012-16
- Fish products push ethical claims
- Retailers increasing commitment to sustainable seafood
- Focus on convenience to drive fish sales
- Premium claims look to encourage trading up in own-label
- Wider range of added flavours for fish
- Focus on smoking process for salmon
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- Figure 27: New product launches in the UK processed fish market*, by top 25 claims, 2012-16
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Increase in 2015 advertising spending
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- Figure 28: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, 2012-16
- Frozen fish the biggest focus for advertising support
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- Figure 29: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, by category, 2012-16
- Iceland biggest advertiser in fish/seafood in 2015
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- Figure 30: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, by advertiser, 2012-16
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- Figure 31: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, by 10 highest-spending brands, 2015
- Seafood Week aims to get people eating more fish
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Eight in 10 people are fish and shellfish eaters
- Being too expensive biggest barrier to eating fish
- Product visibility important to buyers of fish
- Strong demand for single-serve packs
- Convenience products can add value to fish sales
- A third of buyers interested in healthier coatings
- Ease of preparation a big influence on choice
- Strong interest in sustainability issues
- High awareness of two portions of fish a week being healthy
- Recipe ideas important for increasing fish consumption
Frequency of Eating Fish and Shellfish
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- Eight in 10 people eat fish or shellfish
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- Figure 32: Usage of fish and shellfish, September 2016
- Frozen fish eaten most widely, but chilled fish eaten more frequently
- Eating shellfish more of an occasional indulgence
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- Figure 33: Frequency of eating fish and shellfish, by format, September 2016
Reasons for Not Eating Fish More Often/At All
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- Price the biggest barrier to eating more fish
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- Figure 34: Reasons for not eating fish more often/at all, September 2016
- Worries about bones a significant barrier to eating fish
- More suggestions and advice on fish can help encourage eating
- Promoting fish to cater for a wide range of individual tastes
- Young people have more reasons for not eating fish
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- Figure 35: Repertoire of reasons for not eating fish more often or at all, September 2016
Interest in Fish and Shellfish Products
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- Strong interest in seeing product through packaging
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- Figure 36: Products people are interested in seeing more of when shopping for fish/shellfish, September 2016
- Single-serve packs enjoy strong appeal
- Further interest in family-size packs
- Strong demand for convenience in fish products
- Making fish part of easy meals with pasta and rice
- Interest in more breaded fish with healthier coatings
- Influence of foreign cuisines drives interest in hot/spicy flavours
- Three in ten people would like more sustainably caught fish
Attitudes towards Buying and Eating Fish and Shellfish
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- White fish appeals as a low-fat source of protein
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- Figure 37: Attitudes towards buying and eating fish and Shellfish, September 2016
- Ease of preparation a big influence on choice of fish
- Strong interest in suggestions of sustainable alternative fish options
- Support for the UK fishing industry worth a price premium
- CHAID analysis
- Methodology
- Ease of preparation most important to parents
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- Figure 38: Fish and Shellfish – CHAID – Tree output, September 2016
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- Figure 39: Fish and Shellfish – CHAID – Table output, September 2016
Attitudes towards Cooking and Eating Fish and Shellfish
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- Promoting fish as a quick-to-cook meal option
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards cooking and eating fish and shellfish, September 2016
- High awareness of two portions of fish a week as healthy
- Interest in suggestions for cheap meals using fish
- Expanding the repertoire of eating occasions
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast Methodology
Appendix – Segment Performance
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- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, 2016-21
- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2016-21
- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2011-21
- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2016-21
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- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2016-21
- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2016-21
- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2011-21
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2016-21
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 49: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Figure 50: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 51: Split of branded vs own-label new product launches in the UK processed fish market, by storage type, January-September 2016
- Figure 52: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by company (top 15)*, 2012-16
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