Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales rise in a deflationary market
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- Figure 1: Total US MULO sales and fan chart forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2011-21
- Online shopping still a Wild West
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- Figure 2: Online shopping attitudes and behaviors, November 2013, August 2015, and August 2016
- Multistop shopping process
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- Figure 3: Purchase incidence by channel, August 2016
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- Figure 4: Number of stores shopped, August 2016
- The opportunities
- Get the basics right
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- Figure 5: Top five categories purchased at supermarkets, August 2016
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- Figure 6: Purchase drivers, by household income, August 2016
- Take time to get to know the customers
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- Figure 7: Efficiency-related desired improvements, August 2016
- Bring on the in-store experiences
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- Figure 8: Experience-related desired improvements, by generation, August 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Market slated for growth
- Supermarkets continue to lose
- Hot competition for food and drink sales
- Other grocery categories are an opportunity area
- Americans gets healthier
Market Size and Forecast
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- MULO sales continue to climb
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- Figure 9: Total US MULO sales and fan chart forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 10: Total MULO sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Supermarkets versus the “other” guys: The gap widens
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- Figure 11: Total MULO sales and forecast of groceries, by retail channel, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 12: Total MULO percentage of grocery sales, by retail channel, at current prices, 2011-21
- Food and drink account for two thirds of sales
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- Figure 13: Total MULO sales of groceries, by category, at current prices, 2011-16
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- Figure 14: Total US MULO category market share of groceries, by segment and retail channel, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
Market Perspective
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- At-home versus away-from-home: Which is winning?
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- Figure 15: Food sales at home and away from home, January 2010-June 2016
- Lower DPI likely to lead to more eating at home
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- Figure 16: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, August 2014-July 2016
Market Factors
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- Younger generations reportedly shopping more
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- Figure 17: US population by generation, 2016
- Growing Hispanic and Asian markets continue to influence grocery sector
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- Figure 18: Generations, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
- Americans are trying to be healthier
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- Figure 19: Attitudes toward food, by diet status, June 2016
- Food prices are falling
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- Figure 20: Changes in food at home price indexes, 2015-16
- Food-price deflation squeezes profits while competition intensifies
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- Figure 21: Distribution of expenditures for food for off-premise consumption, by retail channel, 1996-2016
- Going local is still cool
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- A very fluid marketplace
- Meal kit services catch on
- Target looks again to build up grocery division
- In-store registered dieticians and other services becoming commonplace
What’s Working?
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- Sales of leading grocery retailers and wholesalers
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- Figure 22: Top US retailers, 2016
- Discount grocers faring well with Aldi paving the way
- Meals on-the-go feed the convenience culture
- For those who want to cook but not shop: Meal/ingredient kits
- For those who don’t mind shopping but don’t want to cook: Grab-and-go prepackaged foods or cook-to-order meals
- For those who don’t want to cook or shop: Ready-to-eat meal delivery
What’s Struggling?
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- Target as a grocery destination: “We’re working on it”
- Improvements underway
What’s Next?
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- Make room for Lidl
- Supermarkets as one-stop shopping destinations
- Health and wellness: Dieticians
- Clothing and home goods
- Future of food is in 3D
- Automation hits the aisles
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Men are shoppers too
- Grocery shopping is a journey by default
- Online shopping continues to climb
- Produce and dairy are supermarkets’ defense against e-tailers
- The endless cycle of consumer demand: More for less
The Primary Grocery Shopper
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- Grocery shopping is mostly an assigned duty
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- Figure 23: Grocery shopping responsibility, August 2016
- Men play a more important role
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- Figure 24: Grocery shopping responsibility, by key demographics, August 2016
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- Figure 25: Changes in grocery shopping responsibility, by select demographics, August 2016
- Over four in 10 consumers enjoy grocery shopping
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- Figure 26: Changes in grocery shopping responsibility, by age and income and Hispanic origin, August 2016
Purchase Incidence by Channel
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- Supermarkets holding steady but Walmart and other discounters on their heels
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- Figure 27: Purchase incidence by channel, August 2016
- Lower-income consumers less likely than all to shop at supermarkets
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- Figure 28: Purchase incidence by channel, by age and household income, August 2016
- Supermarkets can increase appeal to multicultural shoppers
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- Figure 29: Purchase incidence by channel, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2016
- Nearly one third of consumers feel forced to shop around
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- Figure 30: Number of stores shopped, August 2016
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- Figure 31: Percentage of those shopping at three or more stores, by generation, August 2016
Online Shopping Attitudes and Behaviors
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- Momentum picking up but adoption still slow
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- Figure 32: Online shopping attitudes and behaviors, November 2013, August 2015, and August 2016
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- Figure 33: Technology used when shopping for food and drink, August 2016
- Click-and-collect services deemed saviors for those on-the-go
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- Figure 34: Online shopping and pick up at store behaviors, August 2015 and August 2016
- Who’s buying online?
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- Figure 35: Online shopping and pick up at store behaviors, by select demographics, August 2016
- What foods and beverages are they buying online?
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- Figure 36: Top five food and beverages purchased for delivery/pick up, August 2016
- What’s Amazon up to?
- Online grocery market still up for grabs
Channels Shopped by Item
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- Supermarkets for food/drinks; Mass merchandisers for everything else
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- Figure 37: Channels shopped by item, August 2016
- Produce and dairy are supermarkets’ best defense against e-tailers
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- Figure 38: Categories purchased at supermarkets, August 2016
- Fresh food huge priority for Walmart
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- Figure 39: Categories purchased at mass merchandisers, August 2016
- Club channel sees steady performance; opportunity to increase BPC
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- Figure 40: Categories purchased at warehouse clubs, August 2016
- Are organic stores too niche?
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- Figure 41: Categories purchased at organic/natural grocery stores, August 2016
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- Figure 42: Nonshoppers at organic/natural grocery stores, by generation, August 2016
- Shelf-stable products top online shoppers’ orders
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- Figure 43: Categories purchased online*, August 2016
General Attitudes and Behaviors
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- One third spend $150 or more on groceries each week
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- Figure 44: Average grocery expenditures per week, April 2015-June 2016
- Most people prefer to stock up
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- Figure 45: Number of times shopped at select stores in last four weeks, April 2015-June 2016
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- Figure 46: Preference on stocking up versus fill-in trips, by generation, August 2016
- Brand versus price: HHI a factor
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- Figure 47: Purchase drivers, August 2016
- Figure 48: Attitudes toward spending, January 2016
- Coupons remain a vital resource
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- Figure 49: Coupon usage, April 2011-June 2016
Desired Improvements
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- Consumers seek convenience, service, and better selections
- Efficiency
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- Figure 50: Efficiency-related desired improvements, August 2016
- Experience
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- Figure 51: Attitudes toward in-store experiences, by generation, August 2016
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- Figure 52: Experience-related desired improvements, by generation, August 2016
- Choice
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- Figure 53: Selection-related desired improvements, August 2016
- TURF analysis reveals opportunities to maximize reach
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- Figure 54: TURF Analysis – Desired improvements, August 2016
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- Figure 55: Table – TURF Analysis – Desired improvements, August 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Total MULO sales
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- Figure 56: Total MULO sales and forecast of groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 57: Total MULO sales of groceries, by retail channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Supermarket sales
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- Figure 58: Supermarket sales of groceries, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 59: Supermarket sales of groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 60: Supermarket sales of groceries, by category, at current prices, 2011-16
- Other MULO sales
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- Figure 61: Sales of groceries through other MULO retailers*, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 62: Sales of groceries through other MULO retailers*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 63: Sales of groceries through other MULO retailers*, by category, 2011-21
- Additional data
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- Figure 64: Detailed distribution of expenditures for food for off-premise consumption, by retail channel, 1996-16
- Figure 65: Average number of children per household, 2005-15
- Figure 66: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
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- Figure 67: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-August 2016
- Figure 68: Average expenditures on food of all consumer units, 2013-15
Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 69: Attitudes toward locally grown food, April 2012-June 2016
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- Figure 70: Barriers to using online technology, August 2016
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- Figure 71: Number of times shopped at any supermarket in last four weeks, April 2011-June 2016
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- Figure 72: Where coupons are redeemed, April 2015-June 2016
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- Figure 73: Types of coupons used, April 2015-June 2016
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- Figure 74: Supermarkets/food stores shopped in past four weeks, October 2015-June 2016
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