Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Category stagnation continues
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
- 100% juice struggles
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Morning leads as breakfast occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
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- Figure 3: Consumption occasion – Daypart, by drink type, July 2016
- The opportunities
- More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
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- Figure 4: Types purchased – Claims, by segment, July 2016
- 100% juice pack size decreases; smoothies grow
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- Figure 5: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
- Retail placement has a strong impact on product perception
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- Figure 6: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category stagnation continues
- Smoothies take dollar share away from 100% juice
- 100% juice struggles
- Supermarkets lose share to convenience stores and other channels
- Updated nutrition facts panel could help 100% juice
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category stagnation continues
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Smoothies take dollar share away from 100% juice
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, by segment, 2011 and 2016 (est)
- 100% juice struggles
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 12: MULO volume sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, 2010 and 2015
- Supermarkets lose share to convenience stores and other channels
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
- Category continues strong growth across natural channels
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- Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 13, 2014-July 10, 2016
Market Perspective
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- The non-alcoholic beverage market is highly competitive
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- Figure 15: Non-alcoholic beverage consumption, November 2015
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- Figure 16: Percent change in sales non-alcoholic drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2014-15
- If you can’t beat ‘em, mimic them
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- Figure 17: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, October 2016
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- Figure 18: Juice and juice drinks, October 2016
Market Factors
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- Consumers see the benefit of healthy eating
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- Figure 19: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
- …but close to a third of consumers don’t have time for healthy meals
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- Figure 20: Attitudes toward health – Agree
- Taste leads non-alcoholic beverage purchase decision
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- Figure 21: Beverage purchase factors – Any rank, April 2016
- Government guidelines crack down on added sugar
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- MULO sales are highly fragmented
- Juice drink brands with natural positioning continue to thrive
- 100% juice pack size decreases; smoothies grow
- Tropical flavors grow among launches, traditional flavors decline
Leading Company Sales of 100% Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies
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- MULO sales are highly fragmented
- Brand sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending May 15, 2016
- Figure 23: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Juice drink brands with natural positioning continue to thrive
- Coca-Cola brands aim at adult audience, even for kid-focused products
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- Figure 24: “Simply Limeade® | How To Make A Spicy Pineapple Frozen Margarita,” online video, June 2016
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- Figure 25: “Tea Party with Dad & Mr. Bentley | Minute Maid Premium Fruit Punch Commercial,” online video, July 2016
- Ocean Spray aims to expand appeal through function
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- Figure 26: “Ocean Spray® PACt® Cranberry Extract Water – A Better Water for a Better You,” online video, July 2016
- Figure 27: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Smoothies see 6% dollar sales growth at MULO
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- 100% juice pack sizes decrease; smoothies grow
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- Figure 29: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
- A third of smoothie launches in the past year carried an organic claim
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- Figure 30: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
- Tropical flavors grow among launches, traditional flavors decline
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- Figure 31: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
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- Figure 32: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
- Sales of stevia-sweetened products double from 2014-16 in natural channels
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- Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
What’s Struggling?
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- Florida’s Natural and V8 Fusion stumble
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- Figure 34: “Welch’s 100% Grape Juice has Something for Everyone,” online video, September 2016
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- Figure 35: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Shelf stable launches decline
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- Figure 36: 100% juice, juice, drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
What’s Next?
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- Going beyond fruit and veg
- Don’t be so sweet
- Focus on function to diversify consumption occasions
- Bulking up
- Give ‘em a shot
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 85% of consumers purchase products in the category; 100% juice leads
- The category performs well for taste
- Morning leads as breakfast occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
- Retail placement has strong impact on product perception
- Close to half of smoothie buyers purchase single-serving containers
- More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
100% Juice, Juice Drink, and Smoothie Purchase
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- 85% of consumers purchase products in the category; 100% juice leads
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- Figure 37: Purchase, July 2016
- A quarter of shoppers are purchasing products for children
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- Figure 38: Purchase – For a child under the age of 18, July 2016
- Asian shoppers are strong targets for smoothie purchase
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- Figure 39: Purchase, by race, July 2016
Reasons for Purchase
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- The category performs well for flavor
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- Figure 40: Reasons for purchase, July 2016
- The category hits the mark for iGens
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- Figure 41: Reasons for purchase – Enjoyment, by generation, July 2016
- Health appeals to older consumers, Millennials look for other function
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- Figure 42: Reasons for purchase – Function, by generation, July 2016
- Variety appeals to younger shoppers
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- Figure 43: Reasons for purchase – Other, by generation, July 2016
- Juice drinks lead for refreshment
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- Figure 44: Reasons for purchase, by type consumed, July 2016
Consumption Occasions
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- Three quarters of adults drink products in the category
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- Figure 45: Consumption, July 2016
- 100% juice does the best job of retaining consumers as they age
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- Figure 46: Consumption, by generation, July 2016
- Hispanics are significantly more likely than non-Hispanics to drink juice drinks and smoothies
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- Figure 47: Consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
- Morning leads as consumption occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
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- Figure 48: Consumption occasion – Daypart, by drink type, July 2016
- Room exists for diversifying occasions
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- Figure 49: Consumption occasion, by drink type, July 2016
Retail Placement
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- Retail placement has a strong impact on product perception
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- Figure 50: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
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- Figure 51: Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
- The highest percentage of consumers purchase products in refrigerated dairy case
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- Figure 52: Retail placement – Something I buy, July 2016
- iGens exhibit the largest range of in-store purchase locations
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- Figure 53: Retail placement – Something I buy, by generation, July 2016
- Shelf stable may appeal for affordability
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- Figure 54: Retail placement – Something I buy, by HH income, July 2016
- Smoothies do well at checkout
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- Figure 55: Retail placement – Something I buy, by type, July 2016
Types Purchased
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- Packaging
- Close to half of smoothie buyers purchase single-serving containers
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- Figure 56: Types purchased – Size, by segment, July 2016
- Single-serve formats appeal to younger shoppers
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- Figure 57: Types purchased – Size, by generation, July 2016
- Plastic containers/jugs lead juice usage
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- Figure 58: Juice and juice drink forms used, July 2016
- Storage
- Use of refrigerated juice continues to lead
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- Figure 59: Juice and juice drink storage formats used, 2012 and 2016
- Claims
- More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
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- Figure 60: Types purchased – Claims, by segment, July 2016
- iGens and Millennials are strong targets for product claims
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- Figure 61: Types purchased – Claims, by generation, July 2016
- Flavor
- Orange still leads HH consumption by a large margin
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- Figure 62: Juice and juice drink flavors used, 2016
- Kids drive the popularity of certain flavors
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- Figure 63: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by presence of children, 2016
- Close to a third of consumers purchase products made with vegetables
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- Figure 64: Types purchased – Select flavors, July 2016
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- Figure 65: Types purchased – Select flavors, by generation, July 2016
- Concentrate
- Consumers are slightly less likely to purchase juices made from concentrate
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- Figure 66: Types purchased – Concentrate, July 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 73: MULO volume sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, 2010 and 2015
- Figure 74: US supermarket sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-16
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- Figure 75: US convenience store sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 76: US sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 77: Smoothie launches, by store type, 2012-16*
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 78: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 79: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
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- Figure 80: 100% juice launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
- Figure 81: Juice drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
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- Figure 82: Smoothie launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
- Figure 83: 100% juice launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
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- Figure 84: Juice drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
- Figure 85: Smoothie launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
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- Figure 86: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
- Figure 87: 100% juice launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
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- Figure 88: Juice drink launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
- Figure 89: Smoothie launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
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- Figure 90: Sales of 100% juice, by storage, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
- Figure 91: Sales of juice drinks, by storage, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
- Figure 92: Sales of 100% juice, by format, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
- Figure 93: Sales of juice drinks, by format, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
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- Figure 94: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 13, 2014-July 10, 2016
- Figure 95: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
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- Figure 96: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
- Figure 97: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/13/14 and 7/10/16
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- Figure 98: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by gluten-free labelling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
- Figure 99: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
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- Figure 100: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
- Figure 101: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by packaging, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
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- Figure 102: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 103: Juice and juice drink forms used, 2012-16
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- Figure 104: Juice and juice drink forms used, by HH with children, 2016
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- Figure 105: Juice and juice drink storage formats used, 2012-16
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- Figure 106: Juice and juice drink flavors used, 2012-16
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- Figure 107: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by presence of children, 2016
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- Figure 108: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
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- Figure 109: Orange juice kinds used, 2012-16
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