Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Pace of category sales growth slows
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2011-16
- Category faces breakfast competition
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- Figure 2: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Nets, May 2016
- Greek isn’t going away anytime soon, but consumers are hungry for innovation
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- Figure 3: Yogurt/yogurt drink launches featuring “Greek,” by segment, 2012-16*
- The opportunities
- The small yogurt drinks segment increases value by 62% from 2011-16
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- Figure 4: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Pushing beyond breakfast as one means of retaining relevance
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- Figure 5: Correspondence analysis – Yogurt and yogurt drinks perceptions, May 2016
- Flavor is key, followed by health and convenience
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- Figure 6: Reasons for consumption, May 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Dollar sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks are expected to grow 3% in 2016
- Spoonable makes up 90% of dollar sales, growth slows in the segment
- The small yogurt drinks segment increases value by 62% from 2011-16
- Yogurt has competition for breakfast
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dollar sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks are expected to grow 3% in 2016
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Spoonable yogurt dominates category sales
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment share, 2016 (est)
- Yogurt drinks continue strong growth
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Volume sales lag in spoonable at MULO, boom in drinks
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- Figure 12: Volume sales yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, 2011-15
- Supermarkets account for 61% share of dollar sales
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- Figure 13: “Create. Mix. Enjoy. with Chobani Greek Yogurt and Target,” online video, August 2015
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
- Natural channel growth outpaces that of the total market
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- Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks May 18, 2014-May 15, 2016
Market Perspective
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- Yogurt faces competition for breakfast
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- Figure 16: Breakfast food purchase, May 2016
Market Factors
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- Health remains top of mind with consumers
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- Figure 17: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
- Most adults believe it’s better to eat well than to use diet products
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- Figure 18: Attitudes toward diets, July 2015
- Digestive health issues are common among adults
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- Figure 19: Attitudes toward probiotics, by age, May 2016
- FDA reveals updated nutrition facts panel
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Groupe Danone controls 30% of MULO dollar sales in the category
- Chobani posts 12% MULO dollar sales growth over 52-week period
- Dannon benefits from range within the yogurt drinks segment
- Other yogurt drink leaders post big gains, suggest further growth potential
Leading Company Sales of Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Groupe Danone controls 30% of MULO dollar sales in the category
- General Mills stumbles, looks at realignment
- Chobani continues to flourish
- Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks
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- Figure 20: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 52 weeks ending May 15, 2016
- Figure 21: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Dannon bests Yoplait for top spot in spoonable
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- Figure 22: “Dannon Pledge - Straight Talk Mom Hero video,” online video, July 2016
- Yoplait takes a hit, keeps going
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- Figure 23: “Yoplait I Synchronicity,” online video, June 2016
- Figure 24: “Plenti Yogurt – That’s Surprising – Lawn Mower (:30),” online video, February 2016
- Chobani posts strong gains
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of spoonable yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Lala turns yogurt into a verb
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- Figure 26: “LALA Yogurting TV & Web :15 Kitchen Core,” online video, February 2016
- Growth of Yakult could point to interest in efficacy
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Private label gets in on the yogurt drink action
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- Figure 28: Yogurt drink launches, by private label, 2012-16*
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- Figure 29: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Store brand, by generation, May 2016
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- Figure 30: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Store brand, by reasons for consumption, May 2016
- Greek isn’t going away anytime soon
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- Figure 31: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
- Figure 32: Yogurt/yogurt drink launches featuring “Greek,” by segment, 2012-16*
- Coconut milk options top natural channel sales
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- Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy yogurt and yogurt drinks, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
- Full fat makes big gains in natural channels
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- Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
- Organic positioning gains on not organic in natural channels
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- Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
What’s Struggling?
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- Standard spoonable yogurt flavors give way to taste innovation
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- Figure 36: Spoonable yogurt launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
- Figure 37: Spoonable yogurt launches, by fastest growing, 2012-16*
What’s Next?
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- The expansion of yogurt drink variety
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- Figure 38: Yogurt drink launches, by launch type, 2012-16*
- A wider array of formats
- More adventurous flavors
- Reminding consumers yogurt drinks are a thing around the world
- Pushing beyond breakfast
- Continued specialization
- Emphasizing probiotics
- Mainstream brands promote their bugs
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- Figure 39: “Yoplait | Counting,” online video, December 2015
- Figure 40: “Let Them Eat Bugs – ProBugs!” online video, April 2016
- Grass fed
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Two thirds of consumers purchase yogurt
- Single servings top purchase format
- Largest percentage of buyers purchase low-fat options
- Half of yogurt drink buyers purchase all-natural varieties
- The category is gaining acceptance as a snack
Yogurt/Yogurt Drink Purchase
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- Two thirds of consumers purchase yogurt
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- Figure 41: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, May 2016
- Men are a strong target for yogurt drinks
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- Figure 42: “Texture,” online video, September 2015
- Figure 43: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, by gender, May 2016
- Millennials are strong category participants
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- Figure 44: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, by generation, May 2016
- Half of Asian shoppers purchase yogurt drinks
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- Figure 45: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, by race, May 2016
- HHs with children are more likely to participate in category
- Stonyfield depicts dads
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- Figure 46: “No Matter How You Dad, It’s All Good,” online video, May 2016
- Figure 47: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase, by parental status, May 2016
Formats and Claims
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- Size
- Single servings top purchase format
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- Figure 48: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by segment, May 2016
- Single servings resonate with women, men like variety
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- Figure 49: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by gender, May 2016
- Smaller sizes appeal to older shoppers, young shoppers like variety
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- Figure 50: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by generation, May 2016
- Multi-serving containers resonate with frequent eaters
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- Figure 51: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by consumption frequency across occasions measured, May 2016
- Single servings appear as affordable, multiservings aid versatility
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- Figure 52: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by reasons for consumption, May 2016
- Format
- Tubes and pouches are still the realm of parents
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- Figure 53: “Star Wars GoGurt,” online video, November 2015
- Figure 54: Yogurt/yogurt drink format, by parental status, May 2016
- Fat content
- The largest percentage of buyers purchase low fat, full fat gains strength
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- Figure 55: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by segment, May 2016
- Millennials open to full fat, older shoppers shy away
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- Figure 56: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by generation, May 2016
- Parents are twice as likely as nonparents to buy full fat
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- Figure 57: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by parental status, May 2016
- Dieters are twice as likely to buy nonfat than full fat
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- Figure 58: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by reasons for consumption, May 2016
- Health attributes
- A third of category participants purchase all-natural varieties
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- Figure 59: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by segment, May 2016
- All-natural, organic appeal to Millennials; older shoppers aim to reduce sugar
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- Figure 60: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by generation, May 2016
- Health attributes have generally stronger appeal among higher earning HHs
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- Figure 61: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by HH income, May 2016
- Parents are more likely to look for all-natural, organic
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- Figure 62: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by parental status, May 2016
Varieties and Styles
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- Varieties
- Fruit and fruit flavors lead yogurt varieties purchased
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- Figure 63: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety, May 2016
- Nuts and grains and savory flavors have stronger appeal among men
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- Figure 64: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, by gender, May 2016
- Millennials are generally more adventurous eaters
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- Figure 65: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, by generation, May 2016
- Style
- Half of category participants purchase Greek, other international styles are still catching on
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- Figure 66: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, May 2016
- Alternative styles find a strong audience in Millennials
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- Figure 67: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, by generation, May 2016
- Non-dairy
- 18% of category participants buy non-dairy varieties
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- Figure 68: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety – Non-dairy, May 2016
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- Figure 69: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety – Non-dairy, by generation, May 2016
- Non-dairy might be cost prohibitive
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- Figure 70: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety – Non-dairy, by HH income, May 2016
Reasons for Consumption
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- Flavor is key, followed by health and convenience
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- Figure 71: Reasons for consumption, May 2016
- Calcium is important to women
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- Figure 72: Reasons for consumption, by gender, May 2016
- Older consumers seek products for health, younger ones for convenience
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- Figure 73: Reasons for consumption, by generation, May 2016
Consumption Occasions
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- Breakfast and snacking lead consumption occasions
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- Figure 74: “Yoplait Fro-Yo Snowflakes with Whips!” online video, December 2015
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- Figure 75: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Nets, May 2016
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- Figure 76: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption frequency, by select occasions, May 2016
- Breakfast consumption
- A third of men eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for breakfast daily
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- Figure 77: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Breakfast net*, by gender, May 2016
- 43% of Millennials eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for breakfast daily
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- Figure 78: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Breakfast net*, by generation, May 2016
- Nearly half of parents eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for breakfast daily
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- Figure 79: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Breakfast net*, by parental status, May 2016
- Snack consumption
- A quarter of men eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for snacks daily
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- Figure 80: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Snack net*, by gender, May 2016
- A third of Millennials consume yogurt/yogurt drinks for a snack daily
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- Figure 81: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Snack net*, by generation, May 2016
- A third of parents eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for snacks daily
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- Figure 82: “Four Ways to Snack Hack,” online video, March 2016
- Figure 83: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Snack net*, by generation, May 2016
Perceptions
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- Grains, fruit are most likely to satisfy as a snack/meal
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- Figure 84: “Yoplait | Not Yet,” online video, December 2015
- Figure 85: Correspondence analysis – Yogurt and yogurt drinks perceptions, May 2016
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- Figure 86: Yogurt and yogurt drinks perceptions, May 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 88: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 89: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 90: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 91: Volume sales of spoonable yogurt, 2011-15
- Figure 92: Volume sales of yogurt drinks, 2011-15
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- Figure 93: US supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 94: US sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 95: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks May 18, 2014-May 15, 2016
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 96: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2015 and 2016
- Figure 97: Spoonable yogurt launches, by private label, 2012-16*
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- Figure 98: Yogurt drink launches, by private label, 2012-16*
- Figure 99: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
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- Figure 100: Yogurt/yogurt drink launches featuring “Greek,” by segment, 2012-16*
- Figure 101: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy yogurt and yogurt drinks, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
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- Figure 102: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
- Figure 103: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
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- Figure 104: Spoonable yogurt launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
- Figure 105: Yogurt drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
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- Figure 106: Spoonable yogurt launches, by launch type, 2012-16*
- Figure 107: Yogurt drink launches, by launch type, 2012-16*
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- Figure 108: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
- Figure 109: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
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- Figure 110: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
- Figure 111: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by lactose free, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
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- Figure 112: Spoonable yogurt launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
- Figure 113: Yogurt drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
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