Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Ice cream sales have experienced long-term declining trend
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- Figure 1: Canadian retail volume sales for ice cream market, 2010-15
- Aging population creates headwinds for growth
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- Figure 2: Usage of ice cream and frozen novelties by type and by age (any use), March 2016
- Concerns exist around sugar, but perspective is required
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- Figure 3: Concerns over sugar in ice cream, by age and gender, March 2016
- The opportunities
- Canadians show clear interest in artisan and handmade offerings
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- Figure 4: Top areas of interest in ice cream and frozen treats, March 2016
- Internationally inspired formats can help stimulate growth in an increasingly diverse country
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- Figure 5: Interest in ethnically-inspired flavours and international formats, March 2016
- Younger consumers show higher demand for flavour innovation
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- Figure 6: Interest in new flavours, by age group, March 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Market forces fuelling softness
- Family pack offerings to support forecasted volume sales growth
- Aging Canadian population poses challenge for ice cream growth
Market Size and Forecast
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- Volume sales projected to grow in-line with population growth
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- Figure 7: Forecast of Canadian retail value sales and forecast ice cream market, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 8: Forecast of Canadian retail value sales and forecast ice cream market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream market, 2010-20
- Figure 10: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream market, 2010-20
- Family pack offerings to support volume sales growth
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- Figure 11: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream family packs, 2010-20
- Figure 12: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream multipacks, 2010-20
- Figure 13: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream individually wrapped, 2010-20
Market Factors
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- Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
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- Figure 14: Foreign-born share of population by G8 country and Australia
- Focus on health and weight management to continue
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- Figure 15: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14
- Canada’s aging population represents a challenge for ice cream and frozen novelty consumption
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- Figure 16: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Sophistication growing among ice cream consumers
- Concerns around sugar serve as a hurdle for growth
- Opportunity to capitalize on preference for international foods
What’s Working?
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- Ice cream consumers are becoming more sophisticated
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- Figure 17: Chapman’s Amaretto Biscotti Gelato and Sour Cherry Tango Gelato (Canada), September 2015
- Figure 18: Breyers Gelato Indulgences, fudge truffle and vanilla caramel (Canada) , May 2016
What’s Struggling?
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- Concerns over sugar impact consumption among older consumers
What’s Next?
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- Dairy-free ice cream opens up new options for consumers
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- Figure 19: Ben & Jerry’s Non-Dairy Chocolate Fudge Brownie and P.B. & Cookies ice cream, April 2016 (USA)
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- Figure 20: Share of annual frozen/chilled desert* launches that include the claims coconut derived and coconut oil derived, 2011-15
- Opportunity for ice cream to capitalize on growing acceptance of international foods
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- Figure 21: Little Moons Matcha Green Tea Mochi Ice Cream, October 2015 (Germany)
- Figure 22: Heritage Tasty Kulfi, December 2015 (India)
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- Figure 23: Kulfi Karma Ice Cream, January 2012 (Canada)
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Canadians show interest in artisan/premium options
- Gelato associated with quality and health
- Older consumers less interested in flavour innovation; responding to quality instead
- Chinese Canadians represent an opportunity for category innovation
- “Fun” matures to “indulgence” with age
Ice Cream and Frozen Treat Usage
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- Nearly all Canadians eat ice cream and/or frozen treats
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- Figure 24: Ice cream and frozen treat usage by type (any use), March 2016
- Opportunity to drive frequency through less commonly eaten options
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- Figure 25: Ice cream and frozen treat usage, by format and frequency, March 2016
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- Figure 26: Weekly Ice cream usage, by type and age, March 2016
- ‘Hand-held’ format used by the most Canadians
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- Figure 27: Ice cream and frozen treat usage by format (any use), March 2016
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- Figure 28: Weekly Ice cream usage, by package format and age, March 2016
- ‘Large’ and ‘hand-held’ formats used most often by Canadians
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- Figure 29: Ice cream and frozen treat usage, by format and frequency, March 2016
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- Figure 30: Ben & Jerry’s Son of a… ‘Wich, April 2016 (Netherlands)
- Figure 31: The Decadent Peanut Butter Chocolate Chunk Cookie Ice Cream Sandwiches, June 2012 (Canada)
- Figure 32: PC Black Label Madagascar Bourbon Vanilla Ice Cream Bars, May 2014 (Canada)
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- Figure 33: Chocoholic Moments Ice Cream, April 2014 (Singapore)
- Figure 34: Chunk-Lovers Collections, September 2014 (Singapore)
- Figure 35: Classic Honeycomb Crunch Assorted Ice Cream, April 2015 (Malaysia)
Factors that Influence Ice Cream Purchase
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- Quality and price tied as the most important considerations for consumers
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- Figure 36: Factors behind ice cream and frozen treat selection, March 2016
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- Figure 37: Price vs quality as factors behind ice cream and frozen treat selection, by age, March 2016
- ‘Health’ is a lower consideration when choosing ice cream and frozen treats
- Ingredients can be positioned as a point of differentiation, particularly among gelato
- Younger consumers more likely to be influenced by unique flavours
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- Figure 38: Importance of new and unique flavours/toppings when choosing ice cream or frozen treats, by age, March 2016
Associations with Ice Cream and Frozen Treats
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- Consumers associate different drivers with different frozen treats
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- Figure 39: Characteristics associated with ice cream and frozen treat categories plus yogurt, March 2016
- “Fun” matures to “indulgence” with age
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- Figure 40: Associated of indulgence and fun with ice cream, by age group, March 2016
Innovation Opportunities
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- Artisanal positioning resonates with Canadians
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- Figure 41: Top areas of interest in ice cream and frozen treats, March 2016
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- Figure 42: Emporio La Rosa Orange and Ginger Ice Cream (Chile), November 2015
- Figure 43: Savoy Sorbet Ginger Lemongrass Sorbet (USA), December 2015
- Figure 44: La Belle Aude Lemon Sorbet (France), August 2015
- Exploring flavour variety
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- Figure 45: Agreement with being open to new and different ice cream flavours by, gender and age, March 2016
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- Figure 46: Top 10 ice cream flavours launched in 2015 (global)
- Room for maturity and sophistication in ice cream/frozen treats
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- Figure 47: Baileys Original Custard, January 2016 (Australia)
- Figure 48: Häagen-Dazs Baileys Flavoured Ice Cream, February 2014 (Austria)
- Concerns around sugar can be addressed with a diversified portfolio
- A fifth of Canadians show interest in non-dairy ice cream
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- Figure 49: Percent of Canadians who are interested by dairy-free ice cream, by age, March 2016
- Ice cream can pack a protein punch
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- Figure 50: Percentage of Canadians who are interested ice cream high in protein, by age and gender, March 2016
Consumers Groups
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- Chinese Canadians are avid ice cream and frozen treat consumers
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- Figure 51: Ice cream and frozen treat usage (any use), Chinese Canadians vs overall population, March 2016
- British Columbia and Quebec hold unique characteristics towards ice cream
- US appears to hold more positive associations with ice cream versus Canadians
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- Figure 52: Ice cream retail market consumption per capita, Canada vs US, 2008-15
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- Figure 53: No/low characteristics associated with ice cream, Canada vs US, March 2016 and April 2015
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- Figure 54: Characteristics associated with gelato, Canada vs US, March 2016 and April 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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