Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- The pub industry turnover passes £23 billion in 2015
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- Figure 1: Forecast for total UK pub industry revenues, 2010-20
- Figure 2: Forecast for UK pub industry revenues of alcoholic drinks, 2010-20
- The managed segment of the market is thriving
- UK consumers cutting back on alcohol
- The pub industry continues to shrink
- Publicans under pressure from further cost pressures
- Population changes will have an impact
- Companies and brands
- Pubs look to stand out
- Little advertisement in the category
- The consumer
- Almost nine in 10 Brits go to pubs/bars
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- Figure 3: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars/nightclubs to eat and drink in, March 2016
- A quarter of adults are cutting back on pub visits
- Socialising is the main reason for visiting pubs/bars
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- Figure 4: Reasons for going to pubs/bars, March 2016
- High-quality food is the main draw to try a new venue
- Dining space is a draw for many pub-goers
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- Figure 5: Preferences regarding selected attributes of pubs/bars, March 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- New National Living Wage puts pressure on pubs
- The facts
- The implications
- Pubs should look to embrace technology more
- The facts
- The implications
- Balancing food and drink opportunities
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- The pub industry turnover passes £23 billion in 2015
- The managed segment of the market is thriving
- UK consumers cutting back on alcohol
- The pub industry continues to shrink
- Publicans under pressure from further cost pressures
- Population changes will have an impact
Market Size and Forecasts
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- The pub industry turnover passes £23 billion in 2015
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- Figure 6: UK pub industry market size and forecast, 2010-20
- Tenanted/leased segment struggles
- Alcoholic drinks struggle
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- Figure 7: Estimated UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2012-15
- Food forges ahead
- Forecasts
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- Figure 8: Forecast for total UK pub industry revenues, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Forecast for UK pub industry revenues of alcoholic drinks, 2010-20
Segment Performance
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- The managed segment of the market is thriving…
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- Figure 10: Turnover of selected leading pub operators in the UK, 2011/12-2014/15
- …while the tenanted/leased segment struggles
- Leading players sell off sites
- Freehold/independent pubs could thrive
Market Drivers
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- UK consumers cutting back on alcohol
- New guidelines on alcohol intake
- Alcoholic drink prices have risen dramatically
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- Figure 11: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2004-16
- Business rates put pressure on landlords
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- Figure 12: Average rateable value of pubs in England and Wales, 2005 and 2014
- Councils allowed to set licence fees locally
- Pub closures remain commonplace
- Steps to protect pubs
- Pubs as ACVs
- The Community Pub programme
- New Clause 2
- Possibility of Brexit poses uncertainty for pubs
- Utilities and live sport costs add pressures on publicans
- A dip in energy prices in 2015
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- Figure 13: Utility prices paid by non-domestic consumers (including the Climate Change Levy), 2007-15
- Figure 14: Average fuel prices at the pump for unleaded standard and diesel, 2007-16
- Sports TV subscriptions
- The National Living Wage has not been unanimously welcomed
- Late-night legislation remains a controversial subject
- Additional late-night schemes and initiatives
- Local Alcohol Action Areas
- Best Bar None
- Purple Flag
- Business Improvement Districts
- National Pubwatch
- Population changes present challenges and opportunities
- Growth of over-55s on the cards
- Decline of 18-24s set to pose a challenge
- Significant growth expected among C2DEs
- The weather can also influence pub visits
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- Figure 15: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2011-15
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Managed segment on the rise
- Little advertisement in the category
- Mixed performance among the leading operators
Selected Leading Companies
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- Market overview
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- Figure 16: Selected leading pub operators in the UK, by outlet numbers, 2012-15
- Enterprise Inns
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 17: Key financial data for Enterprise Inns PLC, 2012-15
- Figure 18: Enterprise Inns PLC turnover, by segment, 2012-15
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- Greene King plc
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 19: Key financial data for Greene King PLC, 2012-15*
- Figure 20: Greene King PLC revenue, by segment, 2012-15*
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- JD Wetherspoon plc
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 21: Key financial data for JD Wetherspoon PLC, 2012-15
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- Mitchells & Butlers plc
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 22: Key financial data for Mitchells & Butlers PLC, 2012-15
- Selected recent activity and innovation
- Punch Taverns
- Company overview
- Financial performance
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- Figure 23: Key financial data for Punch Taverns PLC, 2012-15
- Figure 24: Punch Taverns PLC revenue, by segment, 2012-15
- Selected recent activity and innovation
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Almost nine in 10 Brits go to pubs/bars
- A quarter of adults are cutting back on pub visits
- Socialising is the main reason for visiting pubs/bars
- High-quality food is the main draw to try a new venue
- Dining space is a draw for many pub-goers
Frequency of Visiting Pubs/Bars
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- Almost nine in 10 Brits go to pubs/bars
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- Figure 25: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars/nightclubs to eat and drink in, March 2016
- Men are more likely to drink in pubs/bars
- Nightclubs hit by late-night pubs
Changes to Visiting Pubs/Bars
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- A quarter of adults are cutting back on pub visits
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- Figure 26: Changes in frequency of visiting pubs/bars/nightclubs to eat and drink in, March 2016
- Only 9% are going to the pub more…
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- Figure 27: Reasons for increased visits to pubs/bars, March 2016
- …while 25% are going less often
- Cost is a key barrier
- Home comforts appeal to many
- Pubs not seen to be falling behind
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- Figure 28: Reasons for fewer or no visits to pubs/bars, March 2016
Reasons for Visiting Pubs/Bars
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- Socialising is the main reason for visiting pubs/bars
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- Figure 29: Reasons for going to pubs/bars, March 2016
- Pub food has become an important driver of visits
- Formal dining remains rare
- Sport has little appeal to pub-goers
Enticements to Try New Pubs/Bars
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- High-quality food is the main draw to try a new venue
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- Figure 30: Enticements to try new pubs/bars, March 2016
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- Figure 31: Enticements to try new pubs/bars, by gender, March 2016
- Recommendations are influential…
- Pubs’ own online presence matters
- Half of patrons check pub website before visiting
- Welcome offers prompt nearly half of 18-24s
- Catering to screen needs
- …as are external considerations
- External appearance is a pub’s calling card
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- Figure 32: Cask Marque accreditation and Food Hygiene rating signage, 2016
- Parking space matters to older patrons
- Outdoor space a draw for one in five patrons
Pub/Bar Preferences
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- Dining space is a draw for many pub-goers
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- Figure 33: Preferences regarding selected attributes of pubs/bars: dining space, type and choice of pub/bar and origin of products, March 2016
- Local food and drink appeals to a minority
- Live sport on TV, entertainment and music prove to be divisive
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- Figure 34: Preferences regarding selected attributes of pubs/bars: live sport on TV, March 2016
- Entertainment and music divide opinion
- Lively atmosphere deters many over-55s
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- Figure 35: Preferences regarding selected attributes of pubs/bars: atmosphere, entertainment and music, March 2016
- Children in pubs also polarises opinions
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- Figure 36: Preferences regarding selected attributes of pubs/bars: children in pubs/bars, March 2016
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecasts
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- Figure 37: UK pub industry revenue, by segment, 2010-20
- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK pub market, 2015-20
- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK pub industry revenues of alcoholic drinks, 2015-20
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- Figure 40: Forecast for UK pub industry catering (meals) revenues, 2010-20
- Figure 41: Forecast for UK pub industry soft drinks revenues, 2010-20
- Figure 42: Forecast for UK pub industry revenues of other items*, 2010-20
- Forecast methodology
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