Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- People are still cutting back, but less actively
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- Figure 1: Changes in spending habits in 2015, January 2016
- Time to stop relying on promotions
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- Figure 2: Reasons why people spent less across all categories in 2015 (netted across all sectors), January 2016
- Austerity fatigue is setting in
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- Figure 3: What people buy themselves as a treat, January 2016
- The better off buck the savvy shopping trend
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- Figure 4: Attitudes towards spending, by household income, January 2016
- What we think
Britain Today – What You Need to Know
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- Economic growth slows
- Low inflation helping British households
- Growth in insecure jobs
- The better off are feeling the benefits of the recovery
- Britain’s population continues to age
- The baby boom subsides
- Multi-generational households on the rise
The Economy
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- Economic growth falters, but still fairly strong
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- Figure 5: Quarterly % change in UK GDP, Q1 2009-Q4 2015
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- Figure 6: UK GDP quarterly average compound growth, by industry grouping before and after the 2008/09 economic downturn
- Real wages are growing – but the rate of increase has fallen
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- Figure 7: Employment, by gender, 2010-20
- Continued low inflation – a boon for households
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- Figure 8: Headline CPI inflation (12-month percentage change), January 2009-January 2016
- Uneven benefits of recovery
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- Figure 9: Share of GDP of employee earnings (including pension contributions) and private non-financial corporation gross operating surplus (corporate profitability), current prices, UK, Q1 2008-Q4 2015
- Only slow improvement in consumer confidence
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- Figure 10: Trends in how people describe their financial situation (net of ‘Healthy’ and ‘OK’ responses are shown), February 2009-February 2016
- Higher income earners are pulling away from the rest
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- Figure 11: Changes in financial situation compared with a year ago, by household income, February 2016
- Figure 12: Future financial confidence, by household income, February 2016
- Indulgent categories will benefit from the confidence of the better off
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- Figure 13: Spending intent in the next three months, by household income, February 2016
The People
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- Population and age structure
- UK population continues to age
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- Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-20
- Shifting focus from newborns to older children
- Households’ wealth
- The over-55s open opportunities for new markets
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- Figure 15: Distribution of household total wealth, by household type: Great Britain, July 2012-June 2014
- Fertility rate
- Public policies are affecting family planning
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- Figure 16: Total fertility rate and number of live births, England and Wales, 2009-14
- Household size trends
- Multi-generational families becoming more common
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- Figure 17: UK households, by size, 2010-20
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- Figure 18: People in households (thousands), by type of family, UK, 2010 and 2015
- One-person senior households on the rise
Consumer Expenditure – What You Need to Know
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- Total expenditure reaches new heights
- Focus on health in in-home food and non-alcoholic drinks
- The need to provide compelling experiences in foodservice
- Quality over quantity in alcoholic drinks
- Online channel offers opportunities in BPC
- OTC sector benefits from a DIY approach
- Focusing on ageing consumers in fashion
- Mixed fortunes in the technology sector
- Leisure and holidays benefit from rising consumer confidence
- Improvement in finances drives demand for financial products
Expenditure Overview
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- Sector breakout
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- Figure 19: Consumer expenditure, by sector (£billion), 2015
- Outlook for the next five years
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- Figure 20: Best- and worst-case forecast total value sales, 2010-20
- Winners in the next five years
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- Figure 21: Fastest-growing market sectors, at current prices, by % growth, 2015-20
- Slower-growing sectors in the next five years
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- Figure 22: Consumer sectors with weaker growth, at current prices, by % growth, 2015-20
In-home Food
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 23: UK in-home food market value, 2010-15
- Figure 24: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the in-home food market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Chilled fish/shellfish
- Herbs, spices and seasonings
- Crisps, savoury snacks and nuts
- Losers
- Ambient wet cooking sauces
- Prepacked bread
- Spreads
- Dairy drinks, milk and cream
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 25: Changes in spending habits on in-home food in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Condiments, dressings and seasonings
- Food packaging
- Fish and shellfish
- World cuisines
- Healthy eating
- Dairy drinks, milk and cream
Foodservice
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 26: UK foodservice market value, 2010-15
- Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the foodservice market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Chicken and burger bars
- Pub catering
- Losers
- Mid-market operators
- Pizza and pasta restaurants
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 28: Changes in spending habits on eating out in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Menu flavours
- Pizza and pasta restaurants
- Burger and chicken restaurants
Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 29: UK non-alcoholic drinks market value, 2010-15
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- Figure 30: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the non-alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Bottled water
- Coffee pods
- Fruit/herbal teas
- Losers
- Fruit juices and smoothies
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 31: Changes in spending habits on non-alcoholic drinks in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies
- Carbonated soft drinks
- Tea
- Coffee
- Sports and energy drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 32: UK alcoholic drinks market value, 2010-15
- Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Prosecco
- Beer
- Flavoured cider
- Losers
- White rum
- RTDs
- Rosé wine
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 34: Changes in spending habits on alcoholic drinks in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Craft alcoholic drinks
- Cider
- Beer
- Gin
- Wine
- Dark spirits and liqueurs
Beauty and Personal Care
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 35: UK beauty and personal care market value, 2010-15
- Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Colour cosmetics
- Soap, bath and shower
- Losers
- In-salon hair services
- Suncare
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 37: Changes in spending habits on beauty products and toiletries in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Colour cosmetics
- Soap, bath and shower
- In-salon hair services
- Suncare
OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 38: UK OTC and pharmaceuticals market value, 2010-15
- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Analgesics and cold and flu remedies
- Gastrointestinal remedies
- Losers
- Vitamins and supplements
- Sexual health
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 40: Changes in spending habits on healthcare products in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Topical analgesics
- Focus on diet and health
- Price-conscious shopping
Clothing and Accessories
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 41: UK clothing and accessories market value, 2010-15
- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the clothing and accessories market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Men’s clothing
- Footwear
- Sportswear
- Losers
- Handbags
- Jewellery
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 43: Changes in spending habits on clothing and accessories in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Womenswear
- Sports fashion
- Fashion accessories
- Clothing retail
Household Care
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 44: UK household care market value, 2010-15
- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the household care market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Air care
- Losers
- Toilet tissue
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 46: Changes in spending habits on household care products in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Household paper products
- Air care
- Environmentally friendly household care
Technology and Communications
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 47: UK technology and communications market value, 2010-15
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Video games and games consoles
- Telecom providers
- Televisions
- Losers
- Tablet computers
- CDs and DVDs
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 49: Changes in spending habits on technology and communications in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- PC and mobile use
- Desktop and laptop PCs
Leisure and Entertainment
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 50: UK leisure and entertainment market value, 2010-15
- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the leisure and entertainment market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Cinemas
- Music concerts, festivals and spectator sports
- Losers
- Health and fitness clubs, leisure centres and swimming pools
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 52: Changes in spending habits on leisure and entertainment in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Deal-seeking
- Cinemas
- Leisure centres and swimming pools
- Health and fitness clubs
Home and Garden
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 53: UK home and garden market value, 2010-15
- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the home and garden market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Losers
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 55: Changes in spending habits on home and garden products in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Furniture purchases
- Bathrooms
- Garden products
Transport
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 56: UK transport market value, 2010-15
- Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transport market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Cars and motorcycles
- Car hire
- Air travel
- Rail travel
- Losers
- Used cars
- Sea/tunnel travel
- Key consumer findings
- Car purchases
- Air travel
- Car hire
Holidays
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 58: UK holidays market value, 2010-15
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- Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the holidays market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Beach holidays
- Short city breaks
- Losers
- Staycations
- Tourism to the US
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 60: Changes in spending habits on holidays in 2015, January 2016
- Key consumer findings
- Holiday outlook
- Beach holidays
- Customer journey
Personal Finance
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 61: UK personal finance market value, 2010-15
- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the personal finance market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Consumer credit
- Investments
- Losers
- Cash-based savings
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 63: Likelihood to switch provider if existing provider moved services online, December 2015
- Key consumer findings
- Low engagement in cash savings market
- Appetite for borrowing
- Attitudes towards general insurance products
- Consumer payment preferences
- Interest in use of robo-advice in retirement planning
Housing
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 64: UK housing market value, 2010-15
- Figure 65: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the housing market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Changing consumer habits
- Key consumer findings
- Interest in buy-to-let investment
- Struggles to get onto the property ladder
- Renting – a lifestyle choice
Newsagents’ Goods
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
- Greetings cards
- Cigarettes
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- Figure 66: UK newsagents’ goods market value, 2010-15
- Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the newsagents’ goods market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Key consumer findings
- E-cigarettes
- Greetings cards
Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- What we think
- Market – past, present, future
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- Figure 68: UK miscellaneous expenditure market value, 2010-15
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- Figure 69: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the miscellaneous expenditure market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Winners
- Funerals
- Private healthcare
- Losers
- Disposable nappies and wipes
- Pet food, care and accessories
- Key consumer findings
- Pet food, care and accessories
- Disposable nappies and wipes
- Private healthcare
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- People are starting to throw caution to the wind…
- …but savvy shopping habits die hard
- Rising costs of utilities have the biggest impact on finances
- Discounted fashion as a favourite treat
- A food-loving nation
- Discounts encourage shopping
- Higher income earners will lead the way
Changes in Spending Habits
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- Spending patterns are stable
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- Figure 70: Changes in spending habits in 2015, January 2016
- Proportions spending less are shrinking
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- Figure 71: Difference between proportions of people spending more and less, January 2015 and January 2016
Reasons Why People Spent Less
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- Consumers are still focused on savings…
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- Figure 72: Reasons why people spent less across all categories in 2015 (netted across all sectors), January 2016
- …but discounts are starting to lose their appeal
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- Figure 73: Reasons why people spent less in 2015, January 2016
- Focus on value subdued in beauty markets
- Fashion retailers suffer from widespread discounting
- Spending on leisure and eating out still weak
- Demand for holidays suffers from changing circumstances
Factors Impacting Financial Wellbeing
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- Falling oil/gas prices fail to trickle down to households
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- Figure 74: Factors that had the biggest impact on people’s financial situation in the past year, January 2016
- Low interest rates hit retirement savings
- The Sandwich Generation are financially stretched
- Benefit cuts increase inequality
How People Treat Themselves
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- Fashion – the ultimate treat
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- Figure 75: What people buy themselves as a treat, January 2016
- A nation of food lovers
- Spending on holidays set to resume in earnest
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- Figure 76: What people buy themselves as a treat – Holidays, by age and household income, January 2016
- ‘Lipstick effect’ – no more
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- Figure 77: What people buy themselves as a treat – Beauty and personal care products, by gender and age, January 2016
Current Mood of British Consumers
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- Cautious mood prevails
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- Figure 78: Attitudes towards spending, January 2016
- Scrimping and saving is still in vogue
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- Figure 79: Attitudes towards spending, January 2016
- Brits remain keen bargain hunters
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- Figure 80: Attitudes towards spending, January 2016
- Unlocking the spending power of the better off
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- Figure 81: Attitudes towards spending, by household income, January 2016
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Methodology
- Abbreviations
- Definitions
- Generations
Appendix – Expenditure Overview
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- Figure 82: Best- and worst-case forecast for total consumer expenditure, 2015-20
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Appendix – In-home Food
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- Figure 83: Best- and worst-case forecast for in-home food, 2015-20
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Appendix – Foodservice
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- Figure 84: Best- and worst-case forecast for foodservice, 2015-20
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Appendix – Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- Figure 85: Best- and worst-case forecast for non-alcoholic drinks, 2015-20
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Appendix – Alcoholic Drinks
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- Figure 86: Best- and worst-case forecast for alcoholic drinks, 2015-20
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Appendix – Beauty and Personal Care
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- Figure 87: Best- and worst-case forecast for beauty and personal care, 2015-20
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Appendix – OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- Figure 88: Best- and worst-case forecast for OTC and pharmaceuticals, 2015-20
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Appendix – Clothing and Accessories
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- Figure 89: Best- and worst-case forecast for clothing and accessories, 2015-20
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Appendix – Household Care
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- Figure 90: Best- and worst-case forecast for household care, 2015-20
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Appendix – Technology and Communications
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- Figure 91: Best- and worst-case forecast for technology and communications, 2015-20
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Appendix – Leisure and Entertainment
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- Figure 92: Best- and worst-case forecast for leisure and entertainment, 2015-20
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Appendix – Home and Garden
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- Figure 93: Best- and worst-case forecast for home and garden, 2015-20
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Appendix – Transport
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- Figure 94: Best- and worst-case forecast for transport, 2015-20
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Appendix – Holidays
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- Figure 95: Best- and worst-case forecast for holidays, 2015-20
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Appendix – Personal Finance
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- Figure 96: Best- and worst-case forecast for personal finance, 2015-20
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Appendix – Housing
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- Figure 97: Best- and worst-case forecast for housing, 2015-20
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Appendix – Newsagents’ Goods
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- Figure 98: Best- and worst-case forecast for newsagents’ goods, 2015-20
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Appendix – Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- Figure 99: Best- and worst-case forecast for miscellaneous expenditure, 2015-20
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