Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales of red meat strengthen
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Pork, other red meats, to grow
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, 2010-20
- Price increases take toll
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- Figure 3: Changes in consumer food price indexes, 2012-15
- The opportunities
- Higher-income households consuming a greater diversity of red meats
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- Figure 4: Red meat consumption, January 2016
- Parents notably more likely to turn to online stores for red meat
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- Figure 5: Red meat source, by parental status, January 2016
- Hispanics avoid additives/preservatives across all red meats
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- Figure 6: Red meat attributes, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Red meat sales growing
- Meat supply loosening, but prices likely to remain relatively high
- Households with children eat more meat
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of red meats gather steam
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Beef sales to surge through 2020
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, 2010-20
- Consumers turn to supermarkets for red meats
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Market Perspective
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- Health issues leading consumers to other meats
Market Factors
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- Red meat price increases take toll
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- Figure 11: Changes in Consumer Food Price Indexes, 2012-15
- Households with kids purchase more meat
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- Figure 12: Total US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Meat link to cancer, other health concerns
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Notable sales drop for Hormel
- Some relief in beef prices should lead segment to growth
- Cleaner red meat labels resonating with consumers
- Healthier options luring consumers to red meats
Manufacturer Sales of Packaged Red Meat
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- Natural options driving growth of red meat
- Manufacturer sales of packaged red meat
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- Figure 13: MULO sales of packaged red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 14: Market share of packaged red meat, based on MULO sales by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Beef recovery begins
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- Figure 15: MULO sales of beef, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Declining pork markets impact pork purveyors
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- Figure 16: Smithfield Foods, “Everyone Wants to See Animals Treated Humanely,” January 2016
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of pork, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Launches reflect interest in less artificial ingredients
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- Figure 18: Packaged red meat launches, by claims, 2012-15
- Private label options enter a crowded marketplace
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- Figure 19: Private label launch examples
- Microwaveable claims factor consistently in red meat launches
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- Figure 20: Red meat launches with microwaveable claims
What’s Struggling?
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- Humanely raised claim struggles in natural channels
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- Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of packaged red meat, by animal-welfare claim, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 1, 2013 and Nov. 29, 2015, in $ millions
What’s Next?
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- Ostrich and other red meats gaining interest
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- Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at current prices, 2010-20
- Potential for meats touting their healthy attributes
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- Figure 23: PRE Brands meat products
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Price leading consumers to ground beef options
- Hispanics likely to consume other red meats
- Health fears deterring consumers away from red meat
- Parents looking online for red meat
- Consumers seeking natural claims in red meats
- Cost of red meat impacting consumption
- Butcher shops appreciated, if underused
Consumption of Packaged Red Meat
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- Ground beef leads consumption patterns
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- Figure 24: Red meat consumption, January 2016
- Lower-income households less likely to purchase red meat
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- Figure 25: Red meat consumption, by household income, January 2016
- Hispanics much more likely to consume pork and ham
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- Figure 26: Red meat consumption, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
- Higher-income households consuming more – and a greater diversity of – red meats
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- Figure 27: Other red meat consumption, by household income, January 2016
Deterrents to Consuming Red Meat
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- Price’s toll slightly ahead of health concerns
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- Figure 28: Red meat deterrents, January 2016
- Cost of red meat a big issue for childless households
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- Figure 29: Red meat deterrents, by age of children in household, January 2016
- Cholesterol concerns leading Hispanics to consume less beef
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- Figure 30: Red meat deterrents, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
Supermarkets Lead Sources for Red Meat
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- More than a quarter of consumers buy red meat from club stores and mass merchandisers
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- Figure 31: Red meat source, January 2016
- Parents notably more likely to turn to online stores for red meat
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- Figure 32: Red meat source, by parental status, January 2016
- Hispanics more likely to purchase red meat from club stores and mass merchandisers
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- Figure 33: Red meat source, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
Natural/Free Claims Top Red Meat Attributes
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- Grass-fed resonates with more than a quarter of beef consumers
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- Figure 34: Red meat attributes, January 2016
- All-natural beef claims resonating with households with multiple children
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- Figure 35: Red meat attributes, by presence and number of children in household, January 2016
- Hispanics avoid additives/preservatives across all red meats
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- Figure 36: Red meat attributes, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
Opinions of Packaged Red Meat
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- Rising meat prices take their toll on consumers
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- Figure 37: Opinions about red meat, January 2016
- Cost of red meat impacting purchase behavior
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- Figure 38: Opinions about red meat, by household income, January 2016
- Parents seeking guidance about red meats
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- Figure 39: Opinions about red meat, by parental status, January 2016
- Hispanic interest in resealable packaging for red meat
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- Figure 40: Opinions about red meat, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
- Health concerns leading consumers to eat less red meat
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- Figure 41: Opinions about red meat – CHAID – Tree output, December 2015
Descriptions of Red Meat Vary by Source
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- Consumers favor butcher shop options
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- Figure 42: Correspondence Analysis – Meat description, December 2015
- Hispanics regard butcher shop and supermarket refrigerated meat as fresh
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- Figure 43: Red meat description, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Methodology – CHAID
- Methodology – Correspondence Analysis
Appendix: Market
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- Figure 44: Total US sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 45: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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Appendix: Consumer
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- Figure 52: Opinions about red meat – CHAID – Table output, December 2015
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- Figure 53: Meat description – Correspondence Analysis, December 2015
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