Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Limited service represents 63% of Blacks’ dining out expenditures
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- Figure 1: Segment share of expenditures by black households on dining out, at current prices, 2015
- The issues
- Limited number of locations in Black community isn’t feeding into their love for food
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- Figure 2: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants in the last year, December 2015
- Is the glass half empty or half full? Opportunity exists on both sides
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- Figure 3: Blacks’ use of fast casual restaurants in the past month and population distribution, by generation, December 2015
- Blacks starving for technology innovations to make life easier
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- Figure 4: Receptivity to fast casual restaurant promotions and amenities, December 2015
- Taste, quality, and fresh food will win over Blacks
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- Figure 5: Types of fast casual restaurants Blacks have dined at in the past month – Indexed against the total population, December 2015
- The opportunities
- Messaging is key…Blacks see fast casual differently than others
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- Figure 6: Words associated with fast casual restaurants – Blacks versus the total population, December 2015
- Consider expansion into Black communities, leverage Black franchise owners
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- At $28 billion in sales, limited-service restaurants are a force to reckon with
- Weeding crops to produce fruit bears a harvest for brands who target Blacks
Market Size and Forecast
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- Currently at $44 billion, Blacks’ dining out expenditures projected to reach nearly $58 billion by 2020
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- Figure 7: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers on dining out, at current prices, 2010-20
- This decade could boast a 65% gain in dining out expenditures
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- Figure 8: Expenditures by Black households on dining out, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Two thirds of every dining out dollar spent is on limited-service restaurants
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- Figure 9: Expenditures by Black households on dining out, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Limited-service restaurant expenditures forecast to reach $36.5 billion by 2020
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- Figure 10: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers on limited-service restaurants, at current prices, 2010-20
- Full-service restaurant expenditures forecast to reach $21.2 billion by 2020
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- Figure 11: Total expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers on full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Perspective
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- Blacks’ value equation is different, quality always trumps cost
- Food is how they demonstrate love … even if they didn’t cook it
Market Factors
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- Single households, hectic lives
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- Figure 12: Family households with own children, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, by type, 2014
- Opportunity to build loyalty among Black men and Millennials
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- Figure 13: Brand loyalty segments, September 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Fast casual restaurants step up tactics to win the game
- Experiences broaden horizons, restaurants rewarded
What’s Working?
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- Food is the gateway to experiencing other cultures
- Authenticity…taste is everything
- Delivery works, but the restaurant’s location may be a barrier to delivery
What’s Challenging?
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- Social media…it can make or break a brand
- Few fast casuals offer kids menu, a huge miss
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- Figure 14: Family households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2014
What’s Next?
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- Coming soon…more chains to open in Black communities
- Time-saving extras: drive-throughs, delivery, and ordering in advance
- Fast casual as an entertainment venue
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Blacks eat at fast casuals more frequently, especially men and Millennials
- Quality and taste trumps low cost
- Buy Black by Black…Blacks enjoy eating at Black-owned fast casual restaurants
- TV and word of mouth highly effective at feeding awareness
Incidence of Dining at Fast Casual Restaurants
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- iGeneration/Millennials dine at fast casuals more than others
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- Figure 15: Incidence of Blacks dining at fast casual restaurants in the past month, by generation, December 2015
- Pizza, chicken, and burger are leading fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 16: Types of fast casual restaurants Blacks have dined at in the past month – Indexed against the total population, December 2015
- Blacks more likely than others to eat at leading fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 17: Fast food/fast casual Blacks have eaten at in the last 30 days – indexed against the total population, July 2014-September 2015
Fast Casual Dining Dayparts
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- Three in 10 Blacks dine at fast casual for breakfast and snack
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- Figure 18: Types fast casual restaurants Blacks have dined in the past month, by dining daypart, December 2015
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- Figure 19: Correspondence analysis – Types of restaurants by dining out daypart, December 2015
Frequency of Dining at Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Blacks dine at fast casuals more often than others, nearly every other day on average
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- Figure 20: Average number of times dined at a fast food/fast casual restaurant in past 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
- Blacks eating at fast casuals more
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- Figure 21: Changes in frequency of dining at fast casual restaurants in the last year, December 2015
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- Figure 22: Changes in eating healthier options at fast casual dining in the last year, December 2015
- Value menu may not be as effective as coupons promoting fast casual
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- Figure 23: Spending changes at fast casual restaurants in the last year, December 2015
- Technology is up, delivery still may help drive sales
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- Figure 24: Changes in using mobile technology and delivery services at fast casual restaurants, December 2015
Attitudes toward Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Quality food and ingredients justifies higher cost
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- Figure 25: Impact price has on dining at fast casual restaurants, December 2015
- Quality may draw Blacks in, but brands’ advocacy may drive loyalty
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- Figure 26: Attitudes toward dining at fast casual restaurants, December 2015
Brand Health of Fast Casual Category
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- Good taste, advance ordering, and good value messages are working for fast casual
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- Figure 27: Correspondence analysis – Restaurant association, December 2015
- Fast casuals can work on strengthening efforts for kids’ options, LTOs
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- Figure 28: Restaurant association, by type of restaurant December 2015
Preferences for Chain vs Independent Restaurants
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- Seven in 10 Blacks eat at Black-owned restaurants
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- Figure 29: Preferences for dining at chain, independent and Black-owned restaurants, December 2015
- Men more likely than women to dine at fast food and fast casual
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- Figure 30: Level of enjoyment of dining at restaurants, by gender, December 2014
- Millennials more likely to dine at independent and fast food restaurants
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- Figure 31: Level of enjoyment of dining at restaurants, by generation, December 2014
- Blacks enjoy eating at chain restaurants more so than others
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- Figure 32: Preferences for dining at fast casual versus fast food and casual dining restaurants, December 2015
- Women more likely to dine at Black-owned casual dining
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- Figure 33: Level of enjoyment of dining at fast casual versus fast food and casual dining restaurants, by gender, December 2014
Pizza Restaurants
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- Pizza is the #1 fast casual restaurant visited, family portions attributed
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- Figure 34: Time of day Blacks eat at a pizza fast casual restaurant, by gender, December 2015
- Millennials twice as likely than Boomers to eat at pizza fast casual for lunch
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- Figure 35: Time of day Blacks eat at a pizza fast casual restaurants, by generation, December 2015
- Pizza fast casual competition is strong – Independents may be biggest threat
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- Figure 36: Fast food and fast casual pizza restaurants people dine at, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
Chicken Restaurants
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- Two in three Blacks have eaten at a chicken fast casual – Particularly men
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- Figure 37: Time of day Blacks eat at a chicken fast casual restaurant, by gender, December 2015
- Millennials twice as likely to eat at chicken fast casual for lunch
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- Figure 38: Time of day Blacks eat at a chicken fast casual restaurant, by generation, December 2015
- Blacks significantly more likely than others to eat at chicken restaurants
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- Figure 39: Fast food and fast casual chicken restaurants people dine at, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
Burger Restaurants
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- Men eat at burger fast casual restaurants more than women
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- Figure 40: Time of day Blacks eat at a burger fast casual restaurant, by gender, December 2015
- Boomers less likely to eat at burger fast casuals, opportunity with healthier options
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- Figure 41: Time of day Blacks eat at a burger fast casual restaurant, by generation, December 2015
- Fast casual burger restaurant struggle to compete with fast food chains
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- Figure 42: Fast food and fast casual burger restaurants, by race/Hispanic origin,
Bakery, Sandwich, and Salad Restaurants
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- Blacks less likely to have eaten at salad fast casual, opportunity for brands
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- Figure 43: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual sandwich shops, bakeries, and salad restaurants, by generation, December 2015
- Millennials significantly more likely than others to eat at sandwich shop for lunch
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- Figure 44: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual sandwich shops and delis in the past month, by generation, December 2015
- Millennials nearly 3x as likely to pick up a snack or dessert from bakery fast casual
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- Figure 45: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual bakeries in the past month, by generation, December 2015
- Panera Bread is the leader, but there’s significant room for growth in category
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- Figure 46: Fast food/fast casual deli, bakery, and salad restaurants people have dined at in the last 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
- Coffee shops may be a bigger threat than the category realizes
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- Figure 47: Coffee shops and ice cream parlors people have dined at in the last 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
- Boomers less likely to eat at salad restaurant, suggests opportunity
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- Figure 48: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual salad shops in the past month, by generation, December 2015
Asian and Mexican Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Millennials twice as likely to eat at a Mexican fast casual for lunch and dinner
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- Figure 49: Time of day Blacks eat at Mexican fast casual restaurants, by generation, December 2015
- Blacks more likely to eat at Asian restaurants, lunch and dinner primarily
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- Figure 50: Time of day Blacks eat at Asian fast casual restaurants, by generation, December 2015
- Chipotle and Panda Express are leaders in ethnic fast casual
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- Figure 51: Fast food and fast casual Mexican and Asian restaurants people dine at, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
Impact of Marketing Tactics
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- Word of mouth and TV are the leading ways Blacks find out about fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 52: Resources used to learn about fast casual restaurants, December 2015
- Promotions could work, but may not drive repeat visits – Other factors in play
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- Figure 53: Impact of promotions, delivery, and drive-through on fast casual restaurant visits, December 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence analysis – Methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 54: Expenditures by Black households on dining out, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 55: Expenditures by black households on dining out, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
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