Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Volume sales of beer declined 2% from 2010-15
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- Figure 1: US dollar and volume sales of beer, at current prices, 2010-15
- Light beer maintains largest share, but slipping
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- Figure 2: Share of US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
- Leading domestic brands stall
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- Figure 3: Share change of MULO sales of domestic beer/ale, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending Oct. 4, 2015
- The opportunities
- Flavored beer launches grow
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- Figure 4: Beer launches, by flavor, 2010 and 2015
- Imports see strong activity
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- Figure 5: Types of beer consumed, October 2015
- Craft continues to thrive
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- Figure 6: Innovation of interest, October 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Dollar sales of beer grow 21% 2010-15, while volume sales decline
- Beer leads alcohol consumption
- US brewery count reaches all-time high in 2015
- Light beer maintains the largest share, but this is slipping
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dollar sales of beer grow 21% 2010-15, while volume sales decline
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- Figure 7: US sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: US sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- The beer category is going through a major overhaul
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- Figure 11: Share of total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
- Off-premise sales dwarf on-premise
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- Figure 12: US volume sales of beer, by channel 2010 and 2014
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- Figure 13: Consumption location, October 2015
- On-premise beer may be seen as expensive
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- Figure 14: Locations for drinking beer, by household income, October 2015
Market Perspective
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- Beer leads alcohol consumption
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- Figure 15: Alcohol consumption – Any drink*, October 2015
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- Figure 16: Alcohol consumption – Most often drink, October 2015
Market Factors
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- Alcohol sales continue to rise; patterns favor a growth in on-premise consumption
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- Figure 17: Total expenditures on alcoholic beverages, 2000-13
- US brewery count reaches all-time high in 2015
- The majority of drinkers do so for relaxation
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- Figure 18: “Born in the Rockies: Place,” online video, June 2015
- Figure 19: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, October 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- AB InBev, SABMiller continue to dominate as major brands stagnate
- Imports see strong activity
- Cider brands show strong growth
- Flavored beer launches grow
Manufacturer Sales of Beer
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- AB InBev and SABMiller continue to dominate
- Manufacturer sales of beer
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of beer and cider, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Imports see positive growth
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of imported beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Craft still growing
- Cider sales grow fivefold 2010-15
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- Figure 22: US volume sales of hard cider (2.25-gallons cases), 2010-20
- Figure 23: MULO sales of cider, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Flavored beer launches grow
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- Figure 24: Beer launches, by flavor, 2010 and 2015
- Limited edition launches grow from 2010-15
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- Figure 25: Beer launches, by leading claims, 2010-15*
What’s Struggling?
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- Leading domestic brands stall at MULO
- Struggling leaders make a play for heritage positioning
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- Figure 26: “Coors Stubby Bottle – Taste,” online video, February 2015
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of domestic beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Why is light beer struggling if people are concerned about calories?
What’s Next?
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- Beer blurring can grow appeal among drinkers of other alcoholic beverages
- Being clear about nutritional information
- Craft adoption diversifies big brand offerings, falls in closer line with consumer interest
- Smaller formats may suggest quality, appeal to Millennials
- Creating and catering to a savvy consumer
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- Figure 28: “The Battle (30 seconds),” online video, November 2015
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Men, Millennials, and Hispanics remain key beer targets
- Light beer leads consumption, but motivations vary
- A higher percentage of consumers drink imported beer than domestic
- 28% of consumers are drinking more beer than a year ago
- Beer leads for drinkability and affordability
- Fresh and local finds appeal
Motivations for Drinking Alcoholic Beverages
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- Beer drinkers like the taste of alcohol and look for fun/refreshment
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- Figure 29: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by alcohol type 1 of 2, October 2015
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- Figure 30: Key drivers of beer (eg alcohol and non-alcohol) consumption, October 2015
- Cider drinkers are interested in boosting mood, reward, variety, socializing
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- Figure 31: “The Simple Life | Stella Artois | Cidre,” online video, April 2015
- Figure 32: Key drivers of hard cider consumption, October 2015
- Boomers look to relax
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- Figure 33: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by generation, October 2015
- Women are more likely than men to drink for relaxation/indulgence
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- Figure 34: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by gender, October 2015
- Less than half of Hispanics drink for the taste of alcohol
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- Figure 35: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
- Food pairing appeals to higher earners
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- Figure 36: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by household income, October 2015
Beer Consumption
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- Men are twice as likely as women to drink beer
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- Figure 37: Beer consumption*, by gender, October 2015
- The gender gap narrows slightly among younger consumers
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- Figure 38: Beer consumption, by gender and age, October 2015
- Millennials and Gen Xers lead consumption
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- Figure 39: Beer consumption, by generation, October 2015
- Higher earners are more likely to drink beer, but not as their primary drink
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- Figure 40: Beer consumption, by household income, October 2015
- Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to drink beer
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- Figure 41: Beer consumption, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Types of Beer Consumed
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- A larger percentage of consumers drink imported beer than domestic
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- Figure 42: Types of beer consumed, October 2015
- Flavored varieties find greater appeal among women
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- Figure 43: Types of beer consumed, by gender, October 2015
- Age plays a stronger role than gender in interest in flavored beer
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- Figure 44: Types of beer consumed, by gender and age, October 2015
- Millennials open to variety
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- Figure 45: Types of beer consumed, by generation, October 2015
- Light beer appeals to older women
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- Figure 46: Types of beer consumed, by gender and age, October 2015
- Half of Hispanics drink imported beer
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- Figure 47: Types of beer consumed, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
- Hispanic Millennials are particularly drawn to imports
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- Figure 48: Types of beer consumed, by Hispanic origin and Millennials, October 2015
- Light beer appeals to those who drink for fun
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- Figure 49: Types of beer consumed, by motivations for drinking, October 2015
- Flavored and craft beer most likely consumed away from home
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- Figure 50: Types of beer consumed, by consumption location, October 2015
Change in Beer Consumption
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- 28% of consumers are drinking more beer than a year ago
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- Figure 51: Change in beer consumption – Amount, October 2015
- More than half of young men are drinking more beer in the past year
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- Figure 52: Change in beer consumption – Amount, by gender and age, October 2015
- Hispanics are increasing their beer consumption
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- Figure 53: Change in beer consumption – Amount, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
- Hard sodas may be helping category gain users
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- Figure 54: Change in beer consumption – Amount, by type of alcohol consumed, October 2015
- A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking different kinds of beer than before
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- Figure 55: Change in beer consumption – Type, October 2015
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- Figure 56: Change in beer consumption – Drinking different kinds of beer, by gender, October 2015
- Craft and flavored varieties contribute to increased consumption
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- Figure 57: Reasons for drinking more beer, October 2015
- Flavor innovation appears as a stronger driver than craft among Millennials
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- Figure 58: Reasons for drinking more beer – Males 22-34, October 2015
- Half of consumers are drinking less beer for health; half are turning to other alcohol types
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- Figure 59: Reasons for drinking less beer, October 2015
Opinions toward Alcoholic Beverages
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- Beer leads for affordability and drinkability, but lags for sophistication and quality
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- Figure 60: Correspondence Analysis – Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, October 2015
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- Figure 61: Perceptions of types of alcoholic drinks, October 2015
- Cider struggles with health
- Beer is less likely to appeal for taste/sophistication among women
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- Figure 62: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Beer, by gender, October 2015
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- Figure 63: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Women, by alcoholic drink type, October 2015
- Millennials are most likely to associate beer with quality/sophistication
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- Figure 64: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types, by generation, October 2015
- Beer can be an attractive point of entry for newer drinkers
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- Figure 65: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Millennials, by alcoholic drink type, October 2015
- Encouraging drinking with others will be important among Hispanics
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- Figure 66: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
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- Figure 67: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Hispanics, by alcoholic drink type, October 2015
Innovation of Interest
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- Fresh and local finds appeal
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- Figure 68: Innovation of interest, October 2015
- Beer drinkers don’t appear willing to pay more for innovation
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- Figure 69: Innovation of interest – Beer drinkers, by willingness to pay more, October 2015
- Flavor innovation appeals to beer nondrinkers
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- Figure 70: Innovation of interest, by beer consumption, October 2015
- Innovation appeals more directly to men, but can be a clue to attracting women
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- Figure 71: Innovation of interest, by gender, October 2015
- Men are most willing to pay more for limited editions and higher abv
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- Figure 72: Innovation of interest – Men, by willingness to pay more, October 2015
- Millennials are highly receptive to innovation
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- Figure 73: Innovation of interest, by generation, October 2015
- …and show a greater willingness to pay more for it
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- Figure 74: Innovation of interest – Millennials, by willingness to pay more, October 2015
- Innovation also appeals to Hispanics
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- Figure 75: Innovation of interest, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Key driver analysis methodology
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 76: US volume sales of light beer, 2010-20
- Figure 77: US volume sales of super-premium and premium beer, 2010-20
- Figure 78: US volume sales of imported beer, 2010-20
- Figure 79: US volume sales of craft beer, 2010-20
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- Figure 80: US volume sales of popular beer, 2010-20
- Figure 81: US volume sales of ice beer, 2010-20
- Figure 82: US volume sales of malt liquor, 2010-20
- Figure 83: US volume sales of hard cider, 2010-20
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- Figure 84: Share of alcoholic beverage launches, by alcoholic beverage type, 2010-15*
- Figure 85: US volume sales of beer, by channel, 2010-14
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 86: Beer launches, by flavor, 2010-15*
- Figure 87: Beer launches, by leading claims, 2010-15*
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Interpretation of results
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- Figure 88: Key drivers of beer (eg alcohol and non-alcohol) consumption, October 2015
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- Figure 89: Key drivers of hard cider consumption, October 2015
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