Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Cyclical trends have led to a downturn in the market since 2013
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care products, at current prices, 2010-20
- Nail polish segment struggles
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- Figure 2: Sales of nail color and care products, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Declining engagement among trend-driven teens
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- Figure 3: Nail product usage and frequency of usage (#) among teens aged 12-17, 2010-15
- The opportunities
- Millennials vital in shaping current trends and driving growth
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- Figure 4: Types of nail services done, any, by Millennials, October 2015
- Hispanic women are highly engaged in the category
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- Figure 5: Types of nail services done, any, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
- Gel polish is driving sales in the nail polish segment
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- Figure 6: Gel nail polish usage at home, November 2014 and October 2015
- Concern about ingredient safety and damage to nails
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- Figure 7: Attitudes toward nail product safety and natural products, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category sales wane, salons pose increased competition
- Nail polish segment sees sales decline from 2013-15
- Millennials and Hispanics will shape market development through 2020
Market Size and Forecast
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- Cyclical nature of trend-driven market limits growth
- Outreach to specific demographic groups may boost sales
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care products, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care products, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Largest segment, nail polish, sees sales drop
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- Figure 10: Sales of nail color and care sales, by segment share, at current prices, 2015
- Positive growth for nail tools and treatment segments
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- Figure 11: Sales of nail color and care products, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Other retail channels account for majority of category sales
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- Figure 12: Total US sales of nail color and nail care products, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Market Perspective
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- Usage of nail salon services on the rise with economic upswing
- Salon services grow in popularity from 2013-15
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- Figure 13: Nail services done at a salon, October 2013, November 2014, and October 2015
- Affluent women are most likely to visit salons
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- Figure 14: Select nail services done at a salon, by household income, October 2015
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- Figure 15: More time spent on professional nail services than 12 months ago, by household income, October 2015
Market Factors
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- Declining engagement in the nail category, especially among teens
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- Figure 16: Nail product usage among women and teens, February 2009-March 2015
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- Figure 17: Mean (#) use of nail products among women and teens, February 2009-March 2015
- Millennial population should drive category growth
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- Figure 18: Select nail services done, any, by generation, October 2015
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- Figure 19: Population by generations, 2010-20
- Hispanic population growth should drive market growth
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- Figure 20: Select types of nail services done, any, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
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- Figure 21: Population by Hispanic origin, 2010-2020
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Coty Beauty posts gains thanks to Miracle Gel success
- Nail treatments offer growth opportunities; Kiss Products builds share
- Natural products, mobile apps, and time-saving features to drive future growth
Manufacturer Sales of Nail Color and Care
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- MULO sales reflect segment trends
- Market leader Coty Beauty grows sales thanks to gel polish success
- Kiss Products, with gains in accessories and artificial nails, builds share
- Manufacturer sales of nail color and care
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of nail color and care, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Gel hybrid products, with Sally Hansen’s Miracle Gel a standout success
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- Figure 23: Miracle gel ad, Sally Hansen, July 2015
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- Figure 24: Miracle gel “tribal vibe” colors, Sally Hansen, September 2015
- Demand for nail treatments offers bright spot for major brands
- Kiss Products is solid performer
- Private label dominates removers, but smaller suppliers show gains
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- Figure 25: Ad for Cutex twister nail polish remover, 2015
- Co-branding and brand ambassadors to connect with fashion, culture
What’s Struggling?
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- Traditional nail polishes lose sales to gel polishes and private label
- In accessories, major brands struggle as private label builds share
What’s Next?
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- Online tools for product selection and mobile apps to match colors
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- Figure 26: Ad for “So Mani Choices” ManiMatch App, 2015
- Natural and chemical-free products
- Time-saving spray-on products and small sizes
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Gel manicures are gaining traction
- Gel polish seen as durable, good value, even as some concerns persist
- Main influencer for color choice is suitability for everyday wear
- Moms, Hispanics, and 18-34-year-olds invest more time on nails
- Concerns about chemicals and damage to nails warrant focus
- Smaller products appeal to impulse buys, may help boost sales
Types of Nail Services Done
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- Single color manicures and pedicures remain most popular services
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- Figure 27: Types of nail services done, October 2015
- Trended data shows strong growth in at-home gel manicures
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- Figure 28: Nail services done myself, October 2013, November 2014, and October 2015
- Those aged 25-34 and moms over index for a range of services
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- Figure 29: Types of nail services done myself, by age and parental status, October 2015
- At-home services popular across income levels
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- Figure 30: Types of nail services done myself, by household income, October 2015
- Hispanic women more likely to do specialty manicures
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- Figure 31: Types of nail services done myself, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2015,
Nail Products Used
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- Colored nail polish and remover are most widely used products
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- Figure 32: Nail product usage, October 2015
- Those aged 55+ or without kids rely on traditional products
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- Figure 33: Nail product usage, by age, parental status and Hispanic origin, October 2015
Usage of Gel Nail Polish
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- Usage growing for hybrid gel products
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- Figure 34: Gel nail polish usage, November 2014 and October 2015
- Household income and age shape usage of gel polish
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- Figure 35: Gel nail product usage, by age, household income and parental status, October 2015
- Hispanics over index for usage of gel polish
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- Figure 36: Gel nail product usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Attitudes toward Gel Nail Polish
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- Nearly one third agree that gel polish outlasts conventional polish
- Opportunity lies in building awareness and addressing concerns
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- Figure 37: Attitudes toward gel polish, October 2015
- Those aged 18-34 have stronger awareness of pros and cons
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- Figure 38: Positive attitudes toward gel polish, by age, October 2015
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- Figure 39: Concerns toward gel polish, by age, October 2015
- Hispanics aware of gel polish, see as worth the cost
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- Figure 40: Positive attitudes toward gel polish, by Hispanic orgin, October 2015
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- Figure 41: Concerns toward gel polish, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Selection of Nail Polish Color
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- Top reason for selecting color is appropriate for everyday wear
- Expression of personality and on-trend colors also shape choices
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- Figure 42: Nail polish color influencers when using at home or shopping for new color, October 2015
- Color choice at salon more likely driven by trends, self-expression
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- Figure 43: Nail polish color influencers when visiting a salon, October 2015
- Younger users more likely to seek color to express personality, style
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- Figure 44: Nail polish color influencers when selecting for at-home use, part I, by age, October 2015
- Figure 45: Nail polish color influencers when selecting for at-home use, part II, by age, October 2015
- Hispanics look to reviews, friends, and online for color ideas
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- Figure 46: Nail polish color influencers when selecting for at-home use, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Time Spent on Nails
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- Women spending less time shopping for polish
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- Figure 47: Time spent on nails, October 2015
- 25-34-year-olds, moms spending more time in category
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- Figure 48: More time spent on nails than 12 months ago, by age and parental status, October 2015
- Hispanics also more likely to invest time in relation to nails
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- Figure 49: More time spent on nails than 12 months ago, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2015
Attitudes toward Nail Product Safety and Natural Products
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- Concern about ingredient safety drives interest in natural products
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- Figure 50: Attitudes toward nail product safety and natural products, October 2015
- Those aged 25-34 and moms have positive attitudes to natural polishes
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- Figure 51: Attitudes toward nail product safety and natural products, by age and parental status, October 2015
- Hispanics concerned about chemicals and damage to nails
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- Figure 52: Attitudes toward nail product safety and natural products, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2015
Attitudes toward Experimentation
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- Opportunities to promote sample sizes, spur impulse buys
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward experimentation, October 2015
- Younger users seek ideas on social media, may value customization
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- Figure 54: Attitudes toward experimentation, by age and parental status, October 2015
Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix: Market
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- Market factors
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- Figure 55: Consumer Confidence, 2010-15
- Market size
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- Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Market breakdown
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of nail polish, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of nail accessories and tools, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of nail treatments, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of artificial nails and accessories, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of nail polish removers, at current prices, 2010-20
- Base table
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- Figure 62: Summary of bases for nail product usage and mean (#) usage of nail products, February 2009-March 2015
Appendix: Key Players
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- Manufacturer sales of nail polish
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- Figure 63: MULO sales of nail polish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Manufacturer sales of nail accessories and tools
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- Figure 64: MULO sales of nail accessories and tools, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Manufacturer sales of nail treatments
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- Figure 65: MULO sales of nail treatments, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Manufacturer sales of artificial nails and accessories
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- Figure 66: MULO sales of artificial nails and accessories, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Manufacturer sales of nail polish removers
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- Figure 67: MULO sales of nail polish removers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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