Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
- Chilled
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- Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
- Frozen
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- Figure 3: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
- Ambient
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- Figure 4: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
- Market factors
- Fish consumption is below the recommended level
- Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market
- Growing confidence in scratch cooking bodes well for fish
- Companies, brands and innovation
- John West is one of the few major branded players to perform well
- Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market
- Adspend falls from 2013 high
- The consumer
- Similar levels of usage across different formats
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- Figure 5: Frequency of eating fish and shellfish, by format, September 2015
- Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish
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- Figure 6: Occasions for eating fish/shellfish, by type, September 2015
- Confidence in cooking and speed is key
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- Figure 7: Perceived importance of factors when buying fish/shellfish, September 2015
- People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards fish/shellfish, September 2015
- Fish benefits from overall positive perceptions
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- Figure 9: Selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
- Figure 10: Further selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Providing more recipe ideas can help to build perceptions of fish/shellfish being versatile
- The facts
- The implications
- NPD can meet the strong demand for healthier coated fish options
- The facts
- The implications
- British coastal origin could provide important standout as sustainability has lost its power as a differentiator
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Fish consumption is below the recommended level
- Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market
- Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share
- Deflation in fresh fish has not eroded value growth
- Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses
- Falling prices buoy sales in ambient
Market Size and Segmentation
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- Overall sales are broadly stagnate in 2015
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- Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2010-20
- Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share
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- Figure 12: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, 2010-20
- Figure 13: UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, 2010-20
- Chilled expected to continue to grow ahead of the market
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- Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
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- Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20
- Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses
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- Figure 16: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 17: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20
- Falling prices buoy sales in ambient
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- Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 19: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20
Market Drivers
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- Growing confidence with scratch cooking bodes well for fish
- However, convenience still appeals
- Deflation has impacted the fish market
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- Figure 20: RPI – Total food, fresh fish, fish and poultry, January 2009-October 2015
- Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market
- Fish consumption is below the recommended level
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market
- A surge in frozen launches in 2015
- The competition heats up in oily fish
- Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood
- John West extends its lead in ambient
- Princes is hit by Tesco delisting
- Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value
- Adspend falls from 2013 high
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market
- A surge in frozen launches in 2015
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- Figure 21: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by storage type, 2011-15
- Supermarkets lead innovation
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- Figure 22: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by company, 2011-15
- Young’s maintains its position as the most active brand in terms of NPD
- Birds Eye is close behind
- The coating of fish is pushed into the limelight in 2015
- High level of launch activity from John West in 2015
- The competition heats up in oily fish
- Ethical claims rise
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- Figure 23: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by claim, 2011-15
Market Share
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- Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood
- Saucy Fish Co goes online
- Young’s expands Funky Fish Kitchen
- John West extends its lead in ambient
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Princes is hit by Tesco delisting
- Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Price rises take their toll on Youngs’ volume sales
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Adspend falls from 2013 high
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- Figure 26: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, 2011-15
- Birds Eye extends its lead in adpend in 2014
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- Figure 27: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, by top 15 advertisers (sorted by 2014), 2011-15*
- Iceland becomes the top spender in 2015
- Lidl invests heavily in advertising in 2015
- Aldi pits its fish fingers against leading brand in 2014
- Young’s unveils new TV ads for Gastro range in 2015
- NMR Methodology
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Similar levels of usage across different formats
- Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish
- Confidence in cooking and speed is key
- Oily fish have the edge over white fish
- A minority look for indications of sustainability
- People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish
- Demand for healthier coated fish options
- Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions
- Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious
Usage of Fish and Shellfish
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- Similar levels of usage across different formats…
- …but frozen has the edge
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- Figure 28: Frequency of eating fish and shellfish, by format, September 2015
- Socio-economic factors influence choice of format
- Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish
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- Figure 29: Occasions for eating fish/shellfish, by type, September 2015
- Only tinned is driven by lunchtime usage
Choice Factors
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- Confidence in cooking is key
- Speed is also of the essence
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- Figure 30: Perceived importance of factors when buying fish/shellfish, September 2015
- Oily fish have the edge over white fish
- A minority look for marks of sustainability
- Scope to push British fish
Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish
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- People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish
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- Figure 31: Attitudes towards fish/shellfish, September 2015
- Demand for healthier coated fish options
- Resealable packaging can add value
- Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions
Qualities Associated with Different Formats of Fish
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- Methodology
- Fish benefits from overall positive perceptions
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- Figure 32: Correspondence analysis – Fish and shellfish, September 2015
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- Figure 33: Selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
- Figure 34: Further selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015
- Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious
- Frozen breaded fish and tinned fish/shellfish stand out on convenience
- Cured fish has the most sophisticated image
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 35: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 36: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 37: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 38: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20
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- Figure 39: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 40: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20
- Figure 41: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 42: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20
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