Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Gluten-free food category continues solid growth
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- Figure 1: Sales* and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2018
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- Figure 2: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Gluten-free foods not viewed as nutritious
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- Figure 3: Attitudes toward gluten-free foods – Any agree, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
- Gluten-free foods are only part of consumers’ diets
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- Figure 4: Consistency of eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
- The opportunities
- Focus on key consumer segments driving growth
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- Figure 5: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, 2013-15
- Quality, taste perceptions positive, but need to boost nutritional profile
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- Figure 6: Satisfaction with taste of gluten-free foods, July 2015
- Offer gluten-free foods with value-added attributes to increase consumption frequency
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- Figure 7: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Gluten-free food sales reach $11.6 billion in 2015
- Sales grow across food segments
- Growth in foodservice a competitive threat
Market Size and Forecast
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- Gluten-free sales and total share of gluten-free foods continue to rise
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- Figure 8: Sales* of gluten-free foods as a share of total category sales, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
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- Figure 9: Sales* and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2018
- Figure 10: Sales* of gluten-free foods, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2018
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- Figure 11: Sales* of gluten-free foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2018
Market Breakdown
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- Strongest growth within meats, desserts, energy bars segments
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- Figure 12: Sales* of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
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- Figure 13: Sales* of gluten-free foods as a share of total category sales, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Bread products and cereals
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- Figure 14: Sales* of total and gluten-free bread products and cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Condiments, seasonings, and spreads
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- Figure 15: Sales* of total and gluten-free condiments, seasonings, and spreads, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Desserts
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- Figure 16: Sales* of total and gluten-free desserts, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Energy bars
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- Figure 17: Sales* of total and gluten-free energy bars, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Meats/meat alternatives
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- Figure 18: Sales* of total and gluten-free meats/meat alternatives, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Pasta, noodles, and rice
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- Figure 19: Sales* of total and gluten-free pasta, noodles, and rice, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Prepared foods
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- Figure 20: Sales* of total and gluten-free prepared foods, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Snacks
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- Figure 21: Sales* of total and gluten-free snacks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
Market Perspective
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- Foodservice gluten-free options continue to grow, create competition
Market Factors
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- Celiac disease and gluten sensitivity incidence
- Perceived health benefits a key driver
- Use of the gluten-free claim grows
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- Figure 22: Gluten-free food introductions, by launch type, August 2014-15
- Figure 23: Gluten-free food product penetration, 2010-14
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Gluten-free category highly fragmented
- Expanded gluten-free product lines help boost sales
- Products with ancient grains, probiotics emerging
Manufacturer Sales of Gluten-free Foods
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- Nearly half of category represented by smaller brands
- Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods
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- Figure 24: Sales* of gluten-free products at retail, by market share of leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015
- Figure 25: Sales* of gluten-free products at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Established brands expanding their product lines
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- Figure 26: Sales* of Snyder’s of Hanover gluten-free snacks
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- Figure 27: Sales* of Amy’s Kitchen gluten-free prepared foods
- Figure 28: Sales* of EVOL gluten-free prepared foods
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- Figure 29: Sales* of Cheerios gluten-free cereal
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- Figure 30: Sales* of CLIF LUNA gluten-free energy bars
- Figure 31: Sales* of Barilla gluten-free pasta
- Dedicated gluten-free brands
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- Figure 32: Sales* of Glutino gluten-free bread products
- Figure 33: Sales* of Glutino gluten-free desserts
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- Figure 34: Sales* of Glutino gluten-free prepared meals
- Naturally gluten-free snacks
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- Figure 35: Sales* of On The Border gluten-free snacks
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- Figure 36: Sales* of Cheetos gluten-free snacks
- Figure 37: Sales* of Smartfood gluten-free snacks
What’s Next?
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- Adding value with added nutrition
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- Figure 38: Sales* of gluten-free foods with pre-/probiotics, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Gluten-free food consumption continues to rise
- Increase in those who believe they may be gluten intolerant or sensitive
- Satisfaction with gluten-free foods high, yet improvement needed
- Consumers don’t always eat gluten-free
Consumption of Gluten-free Foods
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- Consumption continues upward trend
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- Figure 39: Consumption of gluten-free foods, 2013-15
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- Figure 40: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender and age, July 2015
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- Figure 41: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2015
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- Figure 42: Past consumption of gluten-free foods, 2013-15
Reasons for Eating Gluten-free Foods
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- Increase in those who believe they may be gluten intolerant or sensitive
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- Figure 43: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, 2013-15
- Health continues to drive consumption, especially among nonceliacs
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- Figure 44: Other reasons for eating gluten-free foods, 2013-15
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- Figure 45: Other reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by celiac disease diagnosis, July 2015
Satisfaction with Taste of Gluten-free Foods
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- Generally high satisfaction across food categories
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- Figure 46: Satisfaction with taste of gluten-free foods, July 2015
- Higher satisfaction among those diagnosed with celiac disease
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- Figure 47: Satisfaction with taste of gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, any satisfied, July 2015
Consistency of Eating Gluten-free Foods
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- Most consumers also eat gluten-containing foods across categories
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- Figure 48: Consistency of eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
Behaviors Related to Gluten-free Foods
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- Awareness of gluten-free label rises slightly
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- Figure 49: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, 2014-15
- Celiacs most likely to follow other free-from diets
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- Figure 50: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
- Celiacs less strict about gluten-free diet away from home
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- Figure 51: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
- Certification, specialty brands more important to gluten intolerant or sensitive
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- Figure 52: Behaviors related to gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
Attitudes toward Gluten-free Foods
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- The “fad factor” rises
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward gluten-free foods – Any agree, 2013-15
- Trust of gluten-free product claims declines
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- Figure 54: Attitudes toward gluten-free foods – Any agree, 2014-15
- Hispanics concerned about ingredients, weight gain on a gluten-free diet
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- Figure 55: Attitudes toward gluten-free foods – Any agree, by Hispanic origin, July 2015
- Celiacs agree gluten-free foods are higher quality but room exists to improve nutritional value
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- Figure 56: Attitudes toward gluten-free foods – Any agree, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, July 2015
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- Figure 57: Attitudes toward gluten-free foods – CHAID – Tree output, July 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – CHAID Analysis
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- Methodology
- Attitudes toward gluten-free foods
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- Figure 58: Attitudes toward gluten-free foods – CHAID – Table output, July 2015
Appendix – Market
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- Retail channel sales
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- Figure 59: Market share of sales* of gluten-free foods, by retail channel, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Gluten-free food sales by select attributes
- Organic
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- Figure 60: Sales* of organic gluten-free foods, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
- Allergen-free
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- Figure 61: Sales* of allergen-free and gluten-free foods, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-June 2015
Appendix – Key Players
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- Bread products and cereals
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- Figure 62: Sales* of gluten-free bread products and cereals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
- Condiments, seasonings, spreads
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- Figure 63: Sales* of gluten-free condiments, seasonings, and spreads, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
- Desserts
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- Figure 64: Sales* of gluten-free desserts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
- Energy bars
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- Figure 65: Sales* of gluten-free energy bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
- Meats/meat alternatives
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- Figure 66: Sales* of gluten-free meat/meat alternatives, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
- Pasta and rice
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- Figure 67: Sales* of gluten-free pasta and rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
- Prepared foods
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- Figure 68: Sales* of gluten-free prepared foods, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
- Snacks
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- Figure 69: Sales* of gluten-free snacks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks June 2014-15
Appendix – Segments and Subsegments
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