Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Shelf-stable fruit segments aren’t pulling weight
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, 2010-15
- Figure 2: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
- Brand leaders aren’t helping matters in respective shelf-stable subsegments
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- Figure 3: Leading brand performance vs. total sales, by subsegment, 2014-15*
- Fruit’s snack-able appeal isn’t grabbing parents and Millennials
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- Figure 4: Fruit for snacking behavior, by generation and presence of children, June 2015
- The opportunities
- Parents and Millennials see benefits of nonfresh options
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- Figure 5: Fruit purchases, Millennials and parents vs. all respondents, June 2015
- Specialization and provenance increasingly relevant, especially to parents
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- Figure 6: Attitudes toward fruit’s provenance, June 2015
- Frozen fruit’s positive image can be exploited further
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- Figure 7: Average response rate for fruit’s top five favorable characteristics, by fruit type, June 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Fruit market sees steady growth
- Fresh trend on full display in this market
- Organics losing share in some outlets
Market Size and Forecast
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- Fruit market tops $47 billion
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Fresh fruit dominates; shelf-stable segments lag; frozen fruit leaps
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of fruit, by segment sales share percentage, 2015
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Perspective
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- Organics not keeping pace in natural and other supermarkets
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- Figure 12: Natural supermarket sales of packaged fruit, by segment, rolling 52 weeks May 2013-May 2015
Market Factors
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- Millennials figure prominently in fruit market
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- Figure 13: Population share percentage, by generation, 2010, 2015, 2020
- Fruit prices fluctuate modestly but supply challenges lie ahead
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- Figure 14: Changes in food price indexes, fruits and vegetables, 2011-15*
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leading companies performing worse than store and other brands
- Shelf-stable segments losing steam, no thanks to leading brands
- Frozen fruit a bright spot, but brand identity challenged
Manufacturer Sales of Fruit
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- Dole and Del Monte hold onto a third of fruit market
- Manufacturer sales of fruit
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- Figure 15: MULO sales of fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Frozen fruit’s solid growth helps sustain entire fruit market
- Specialization and provenance increasingly relevant
- Store brands central to parts of the fruit business but growth a mixed bag
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- Figure 16: Private label versus name brand launches, fruit and fruit snacks, 2013-15*
- Fruit brands occasionally on point with nutritional messaging
What’s Struggling?
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- Dried fruit’s solid image can’t stop sales lag
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- Figure 17: Sun-Maid and Ocean Spray sales for select items in MULO, 2014-15*
- Leading canned/jarred fruit types and brands face declines
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- Figure 18: Dole and Del Monte sales for select items in MULO, 2014-15*
What’s Next?
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- Healthy snack trend will indirectly bolster canned/jarred fruit market
- Dried fruit brands further exploit snacking angle as well
- Provenance to play increasingly prominent marketing role
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Millennial engagement with fruit surpasses vegetables
- Fresh and frozen options most appealing for many shoppers
- Shelf-stable fruit’s image marred by processing and sugar
Fruit Purchases by Type
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- For Millennials convenience is the name of the game
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- Figure 19: Fruit purchases, Millennials vs. all respondents, June 2015
Household Fruit Consumption
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- Shelf-stable fruit consumption on the rise but among fewer households
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- Figure 20: Household usage and purchasing – Canned, jarred, or packaged fruit*, February 2010-March 2015
Favorable Characteristics
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- Fresh and frozen options most appealing for many shoppers
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- Figure 21: Correspondence analysis – Favorable characteristics by fruit type, June 2015
Negative Characteristics
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- Fresh fruit’s issues lie in the fine print
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- Figure 22: Correspondence analysis – Negative characteristics by fruit type, June 2015
Purchase and Consumption Behavior
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- Fruit’s snack-ability is its biggest asset
- More on fruit snacking
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- Figure 23: Purchase and consumption behavior, June 2015
Attitudes toward Fruit
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- Core fruit consumers crave the real deal
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- Figure 24: Attitudes toward fruit, June 2015
- Parents and Millennials see benefits of nonfresh options
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- Figure 25: Additional attitudes toward fruit, June 2015
Nutritional Information Gathering
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- Men, Millennials, and parents seek out Internet and word of mouth
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- Figure 26: Nutritional info gathering, by select demographics, June 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast methodology
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence map methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Market sales and forecast
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- Figure 27: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Retail channel sales of packaged fruit
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- Figure 28: Total US retail sales of packaged fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 29: Total US retail sales of packaged fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Macroeconomic factors
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- Figure 30: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2011-May 2015*
- Figure 31: Disposable personal income, January 2011-April 2015*
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- Figure 32: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2011-May 2015*
Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 33: MULO sales of canned and jarred fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 34: MULO sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 35: MULO sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Experian Simmons
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- Figure 36: Household usage, by type/brand – Canned, jarred, or packaged fruit*, February 2010-March 2015
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