Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Market drivers
- Competitive context
- The consumer
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- Figure 2: Foodservice expenditures in the past 30 days, by gender, December 2014
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- Figure 3: Burger and chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents) Use of drive-thru for burger and chicken, by gender, April 2015
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- Figure 4: What matters with menus, by household income, April 2015
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- Figure 5: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
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- Figure 6: What matters with menus, by presence of children in household, April 2015
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- Figure 7: Barriers to restaurant usage, by region, April 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How can restaurants balance health with indulgence on the menu?
- The issues
- The implications
- What can be done to minimize the wait-time obstacle, especially for casual and fine dining?
- The issues
- The implications
- How can restaurants effectively respond to the growing Hispanic population?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Let’s Make a Deal
- Trend: The Power of One
- Trend: Slow it All Down
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- FSRs still lead limited service in market share
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- Figure 8: Total market share of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2014
- Figure 9: Total US sales of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Sales and forecast of US full service restaurant sales
- Expanding sales reflect a stronger economy
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- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
- Inflation-adjusted sales also show growth
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- Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of US limited service restaurant sales
- Sales expand at a rate of 5% and beyond
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of limited service eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
- Inflation-adjusted sales also show growth
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- Figure 13: Total US retail and forecast of limited service eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of other US limited service restaurant sales
- Menu build-outs yield expanded sales
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- Figure 14: Total US sales and forecast of *other limited service, at current prices, 2009-19
- Inflation-adjusted sales also show growth
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- Figure 15: Total US retail and forecast of *other limited service, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full service and limited service restaurants at current prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Jobs continue to rebound
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- Figure 17: Unemployment rate and underemployment, January 2007-April 2015
- Disposable income continues to rise slightly
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- Figure 18: Real disposable personal income, January 2007-March 2015
- Wages have yet to rebound
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- Figure 19: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
- Consumer confidence remains shaky, but has improved year-over-year
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- Figure 20: Consumer confidence index, January 2009-April 2015
- Population groups support targeting Millennials and Gen X
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- Figure 21: US population, by generation share, 2015*
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- Figure 22: Median household income, by age of householder, 2013*
- Restaurant Performance Index shows solid expansion
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- Figure 23: National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index, 2004-15
- Minimum wage wars
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Grocery and convenience stores up their game for dining-out dollars
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- Figure 24: Barriers to restaurant usage, by select demographics of those who chose “There are better dinner specials at the grocery store,” April 2015
- Meal services bring the ingredients and recipe to the door
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- Figure 25: Where and how consumers order limited service restaurant food, by delivery, April 2015
- Figure 26: Where and how consumers order full service restaurant food, by delivery, April 2015
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Easy interactive ordering/paying fills need for speed
- Entertainment tie-ins help restaurants gain exposure
- Contests create vibe
Menu Analysis
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- Key points
- Exclusive menu items appeal to consumers
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- Figure 27: Top 10 menu item claims at limited service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
- Limited service “signature” and “original” menu examples
- Top full service menu claims
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- Figure 28: Top 10 menu item claims at full service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
- Full service “signature,” “house,” and “homemade” menu examples
- Healthy menu section and items appeal to customers
- Nutritional claims at limited service restaurants
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- Figure 29: Top 10 nutritional claims at limited service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
- Limited service “gluten-free” and “natural” menu examples
- Nutritional claims at FSRs
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- Figure 30: Top 10 nutritional claims at full service restaurants, by incidence, Q1 2012-15
- Full service “gluten-free,” and “natural” examples
Consumer Data – Overview
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- Key points
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- Figure 31: Restaurant expenditures, November 2013-December 2014
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- Figure 32: Where and how consumers eat restaurant food (limited service), April 2015
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- Figure 33: Where and how consumers eat restaurant food (full service), April 2015
- Quick seating, fair prices, good service, and a healthy food section appeal to guests
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- Figure 34: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, April 2015
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- Figure 35: What matters with menus, April 2015
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- Figure 36: Choosing a restaurant based on occasion, April 2015
- Recommendations bring in the most customers; high price and poor service keep them out
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- Figure 37: Drivers for new restaurant trial, April 2015
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- Figure 38: Barriers to restaurant usage, April 2015
Consumer Data – By Gender and Age
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- Key points
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- Figure 39: Restaurant expenditures, by gender and age, November 2013-December 2014
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- Figure 40: Limited service restaurant use, by gender and age, April 2015
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- Figure 41: Full service restaurant use, by gender and age, April 2015
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- Figure 42: Burger and chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by demographics, April 2015
- Women most care about quick seating and a healthy menu section; older men care about quietness for special-occasion dining
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- Figure 43: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by demographics, April 2015
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- Figure 44: What matters with menus, by gender and age, April 2015
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- Figure 45: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by gender and age, April 2015
- Recommendations, good price, and positive experience go a long way in driving traffic to the restaurant, especially for women
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- Figure 46: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by gender and age, April 2015
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- Figure 47: Barriers to restaurant usage, by demographics, April 2015
Consumer Data – By Generation
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- Key points
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- Figure 48: Limited service restaurant use, by generations, April 2015
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- Figure 49: Full service restaurant use, by generations, April 2015
- Location and menu healthy food sections matter less to Millennials
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- Figure 50: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by generations, April 2015
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- Figure 51: What matters with menus, by generations, April 2015
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- Figure 52: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by generations, April 2015
- Baby Boomers are more promotion and price driven than Millennials
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- Figure 53: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by generations, April 2015
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- Figure 54: Barriers to restaurant usage, by generations, April 2015
Consumer Data – By Income
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- Key points
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- Figure 55: Limited service restaurant use, by annual household income, April 2015
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- Figure 56: Full service restaurant use, by annual household income, April 2015
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- Figure 57: Burger and chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by household income, April 2015
- To draw all incomes, restaurants must have price solutions for low-income earners and quality offerings for high-income earners
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- Figure 58: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by household income, April 2015
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- Figure 59: What matters with menus, by household income, April 2015
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- Figure 60: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by household income, April 2015
- Adventurous menus draw upper income earners; value draws low income earners
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- Figure 61: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by household income, April 2015
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- Figure 62: Barriers to restaurant usage, by household income, April 2015
Consumer Data – By Race and Hispanics
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- Key points
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- Figure 63: Median annual household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
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- Figure 64: Restaurant expenditures, by race and hispanic origin, November 2013-December 2014
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- Figure 65: Limited service restaurant use, by race and hispanic origin, April 2015
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- Figure 66: Full service restaurant use, by race and hispanic origin, April 2015
- Daily specials matter to Hispanics, not so much to Whites; Asians want to see pictures of the food on the menu
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- Figure 67: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
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- Figure 68: What matters with menus, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
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- Figure 69: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
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- Figure 70: Choosing a restaurant based on every day, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
- Asians are value conscious; Blacks look for interesting food and drink specials
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- Figure 71: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
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- Figure 72: Barriers to restaurant usage, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2015
Consumer Data – By Parents
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- Key points
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- Figure 73: Restaurant expenditures, by presence of children, November 2013-December 2014
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- Figure 74: Limited service restaurant use, by parents, April 2015
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- Figure 75: Full service restaurant use, by parents, April 2015
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- Figure 76: Burger and chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by parental status, April 2015
- Parents with children don’t expect to be seated quickly, but they do want a bar area to compensate for the wait
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- Figure 77: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by parental status, April 2015
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- Figure 78: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by presence of children in household, April 2015
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- Figure 79: What matters with menus, by parental status, April 2015
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- Figure 80: What matters with menus, by presence of children in household, April 2015
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- Figure 81: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by presence of children in household, April 2015
- Fathers try restaurants with a good online presence and that conduct special events
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- Figure 82: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by parental status, April 2015
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- Figure 83: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by presence of children in household, April 2015
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- Figure 84: Barriers to restaurant usage, by parental status, April 2015
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- Figure 85: Barriers to restaurant usage, by presence of children in household, April 2015
Consumer Data – By Region and Area
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- Key points
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- Figure 86: Restaurant expenditures, by region, November 2013-December 2014
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- Figure 87: Limited service restaurant use, by region, April 2015
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- Figure 88: Full service restaurant use, by region, April 2015
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- Figure 89: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by region, April 2015
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- Figure 90: Limited service restaurant use, by area, April 2015
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- Figure 91: Full service restaurant use, by area, April 2015
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- Figure 92: Burger & chicken (eg McDonald’s, KFC, Chick-fil-A, El Pollo Loco, or independents), by area, April 2015
- Bar areas are important to Westerners and urban dwellers; Midwesterners and suburban dwellers most prize a quiet, leisurely dinner
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- Figure 93: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by region, April 2015
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- Figure 94: Important characteristics when choosing a restaurant, by area, April 2015
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- Figure 95: What matters with menus, by region, April 2015
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- Figure 96: What matters with menus, by area, April 2015
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- Figure 97: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by region, April 2015
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- Figure 98: Choosing a restaurant based on special occasion, by area, April 2015
- Midwesterners respond best to price promotions; Northeasterners and those in urban areas are least concerned with price and service
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- Figure 99: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by region, April 2015
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- Figure 100: Drivers for new restaurant trial – Any rank, by area, April 2015
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- Figure 101: Barriers to restaurant usage, by region, April 2015
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- Figure 102: Barriers to restaurant usage, by area, April 2015
Key Driver Analysis
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- Methodology
- Dining-out correlations to those who choose restaurants they learned about via social media or TV shows
- Special occasion
- Everyday
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- Figure 103: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for special occasions, April 2015
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- Figure 104: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for everyday dinning, April 2015
- Dining-out correlations to those who choose restaurants they have never tried before
- Special occasion
- Everyday
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- Figure 105: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for special occasions, April 2015
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- Figure 106: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for everyday dinning, April 2015
Appendix – Key Driver Analysis
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- Figure 107: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for special occasions based on social or television media – key driver output, April 2015
- Figure 108: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant for everyday dining based on social or television media – key driver output, April 2015
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- Figure 109: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant never tried before for special occasions – key driver output, April 2015
- Figure 110: Key drivers of choosing a restaurant never tried before for everyday dining – key driver output, April 2015
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Appendix – Trade Associations
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