Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Winter holidays show recovery
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- Figure 1: Forecast total winter holidays abroad market volume, 2009/10-19/20
- Figure 2: Forecast total winter holidays abroad market value*, 2009/10-19/20
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- Figure 3: Winter holidays abroad, volume by month, 2014/15
- Season of short breaks and long-haul
- Market factors
- Strong Pound promotes overseas spend
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- Figure 4: Sterling exchange rate vs selected ‘winter destination’ currencies, percentage change 2009-15 (as at 28 April 2015)
- Wage growth is key for supplementary winter spend
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Dreamliner opens up new winter sun destinations
- Winter wellness
- Northern soul
- Markets and festivals
- The consumer
- Winter beach and city neck and neck
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- Figure 5: Winter holidays taken in the past three years, December 2014
- Figure 6: Types of winter holidays abroad, taken in the past three years, December 2014
- Escaping UK weather, summer costs and crowds
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- Figure 7: Reasons for taking winter holidays abroad, December 2014
- What we think
Issues And Insights
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- Who are the ‘Winter Regulars’ and what opportunities do they offer travel companies?
- The facts
- The implications
- What are the key marketing messages for winter holidays abroad?
- The facts
- The implications
- When is the best time to engage consumers with the idea of winter holidays abroad?
- The facts
- The implications
- What is the way forward for a struggling snowsports sector?
- The facts
- The implications
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Oversea holidays on course for gradual recovery
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- Figure 8: Estimated overseas holiday market volume, value and average spend, 2009-14
- Figure 9: Estimated domestic holiday market volume, value and average spend, 2009-14
- Macro factors positive but uncertainties remain
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- Figure 10: GfK Consumer Confidence Index, January 2013-March 2015
- Oil price plummets but fare falls likely to be modest
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- Figure 11: European Brent Crude Oil monthly average spot price (US$ per barrel), January 2014-March 2015
- Pound heads back towards pre-recessionary levels
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- Figure 12: Sterling exchange rate vs selected ‘winter destination’ currencies, annual averages, 2009-14, and spot rate March 2015
- Resort living costs fall in Costas
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- Figure 13: Holiday costs, comparison of top 20 leading resorts, 2014-15
- Best long-haul winter sun value
- APD changes to boost winter sun 2015/16
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- Figure 14: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates April 2013-April 2015
- New winter holiday transport links
- Short-haul winter routes
- Long-haul winter routes
- Eurostar year-round routes
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- New mainstream sun holidays
- Wellness and long-stay trips
- New snowsports products
- Single escapes
- Winter adventures
- Christmas markets
- Santa in the sky
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Winter holidays abroad up 10% over past two years
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- Figure 15: Winter holidays abroad volume, value and average spend, 2008/9-2019/20
- Forecast
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- Figure 16: Forecast total winter holidays abroad market volume, 2009/10-19/20
- Figure 17: Forecast total winter holidays abroad market value*, 2009/10-19/20
- Forecast Methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- All winter months showing recovery
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- Figure 18: Winter holidays abroad, volume by month, 2011/12-2014/15
- Packages higher in October-December period
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- Figure 19: Holidays abroad, package vs independent volumes, winter 2013/14 & summer 2014
- Winter holiday durations are shorter
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- Figure 20: Holidays abroad, volume and percentage share by duration, winter 2013/14 & summer 2014
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- Figure 21: Holidays abroad, short-haul vs long-haul volume, winter 2013/14 & summer 2014
- Beach and city lead winter holiday types
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- Figure 22: Types of winter (October-March) holiday abroad, taken in the past three years, December 2014
- Snowsports on slippery slope but falling prices may stem decline
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- Figure 23: Snowsports holidays, volume and value, 2008/9-2014/15
- Spain is top winter destination, led by Canaries
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- Figure 24: Winter (October-March) holidays abroad, top 20 destinations by volume, 2013/14
- Central Europe popular for festive markets
- France and Austria dominate snowsports
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- Figure 25: Snowsports holidays, percentage share of trips by destination, 2013/14
- Nordic demand is rising
- Winter long-haul destinations led by Caribbean
- Over-55s take relatively high proportion of winter holidays
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- Figure 26: Holidays abroad, volume by age group, winter 2013/14 and summer 2014
Companies and Products
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- Winter sun
- TUI plc
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- Figure 27: TUI AG key financials, 2012/13-2013/14
- Thomas Cook
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- Figure 28: Thomas Cook UK and Ireland key financials, 2012/13-2013/14
- Other Long-haul
- Virgin Holidays
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- Figure 29: Virgin Holidays Limited key financials, 2013
- Trailfinders
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- Figure 30: Trailfinders Limited key financials, 2013-14
- City breaks
- Superbreak
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- Figure 31: Superbreak Mini-Holidays Limited key financials, 2013-14
- Snowsports
- TUI plc/Crystal Ski
- Hotelplan
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- Figure 32: Hotelplan (UK Group) Limited key financials, 2012-13
- Inghams
- Esprit Ski
- Ski Total
- Nordic holidays
The Consumer – Winter vs Summer Holiday Taking
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- Key points
- A third of UK adults take winter holidays abroad
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- Figure 33: Winter vs summer holidays taken in the past three years, December 2014
- AB bias is sharper for winter holidays
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- Figure 34: Winter vs summer holidays abroad taken in the past three years, by age and socio-economic group, December 2014
- Cross-selling potential
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- Figure 35: Winter and summer holiday combinations taken in the past three years, December 2014
The Consumer – Winter vs Summer Holiday Types
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- Key points
- Beach & city are closer in popularity during winter
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- Figure 36: Types of winter vs summer holidays abroad, taken in the past three years, December 2014
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- Figure 37: Types of winter vs summer holidays abroad, taken in the past three years, December 2014
- Demographics of winter holiday types over the past three years (overall consumer penetration)
- Cross-selling holiday types
The Consumer – When People Book And When They Go
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- Key points
- Winter beach and city peak in October
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- Figure 38: Winter beach holidays and city breaks abroad taken in the past three years, by month last holiday was taken, December 2014
- Key winter holiday booking windows
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- Figure 39: Winter beach holidays and city breaks abroad taken in the past three years, by month last holiday was booked, December 2014
- Winter regulars vs occasionals
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- Figure 40: Frequency of taking winter holidays abroad, December 2014
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- Figure 41: Demographic profile of regular winter holiday takers abroad, December 2014
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- Figure 42: Types of winter holidays abroad, regular vs occasional/rare winter holiday takers, December 2014
- Slight rise in winter holiday penetration
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- Figure 43: Changes in winter holiday taking abroad over the past five years, December 2014
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- Figure 44: Types of winter holiday taken by changes in winter holiday taking abroad over the past five years, December 2014
The Consumer – Reasons Why People Take Winter Holidays Abroad
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- Key points
- Winter escapists
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- Figure 45: Reasons for taking winter holidays abroad, December 2014
- Lower costs and fewer crowds draw travellers
- Reasons for winter holidays –demographics
- Escapism most important for regulars
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- Figure 46: Reasons for taking winter holidays abroad, ‘regulars’ vs ‘occasionals’, December 2014
- One in four see winter as time for main annual holiday
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- Figure 47: ‘Main’ vs ‘supplementary’ winter holiday taking abroad, December 2014
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- Figure 48: ‘Main’ vs ‘supplementary’ winter holiday taking abroad, ‘regulars’ vs ‘occasionals’, December 2014
The Consumer – Reasons Why People Do not Take Winter Holidays Abroad
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- Key points
- Cost is main barrier
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- Figure 49: Reasons for not taking winter holidays abroad, December 2014
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