Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Negative health perceptions impacting sales
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by segment, 2009-14
- Difficult to identify natural sugar substitutes
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- Figure 2: Sugar substitutes considered natural, by gender, February 2015
- Sweetener types causing consumer confusion
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- Figure 3: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, February 2015
- The opportunities
- Natural positioning can help boost sales
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- Figure 4: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by generation, February 2015
- Hispanics, households with children key demographic groups
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- Figure 5: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by Hispanic origin, February 2015
- Make product information easily accessible
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- Figure 6: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, February 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Honey is the category sweet spot
- Opportunity for further private label growth
- Health concerns, lack of product information hurting sales
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sugar and sweetener sales to remain relatively stable
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Market Breakdown
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- Sugar fueling majority of category declines
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by segment share, 2014
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by segment, 2009- 14
- Private label options can help retailers grow sales
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
- Natural sales driven by products with agave, stevia
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- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of selected products* with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 2/24/13 and 2/22/15
Market Factors
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- Sugar and honey production, prices on the rise
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- Figure 14: US honey production and imports, 2001-14
- Impact on consumer health
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- Figure 15: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2009-12
- Sugar substitutes’ household usage on the decline
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- Figure 16: Use of sugar and sugar substitutes/artificial sweeteners, October 2009 – December 2014
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- Figure 17: Use of sugar and sugar substitutes/artificial sweeteners, November 2013 – December 2014
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Nearly all companies experience sales declines
- Natural, low-calorie positioning resonates with consumers
- Additional natural alternatives go mainstream
Manufacturer Sales of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners
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- Category leaders struggle to grow sales
- Manufacturer sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners
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- Figure 18: MULO sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Skinny, natural resonating with consumers
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of Stevia in the Raw, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Figure 20: MULO sales of Truvia, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of other sugar substitutes, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Honey sees sweet success
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of Aunt Sue Honey, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Figure 23: MULO sales of Busy Bee Honey, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
What’s Struggling?
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- Several sugar substitutes face declines
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of Sweet’N Low, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Figure 25: MULO sales of Equal, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Sugar declines across the board
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of C&H sugar, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Figure 27: MULO sales of private label sugar, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Focus on tradition not enough to boost syrup sales
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of Karo, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
- Figure 29: MULO sales of Mrs. Butterworth’s, 52 weeks ending Jan. 25, 2015
What’s Next?
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- More natural alternatives go mainstream
- Raw is the new natural?
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- Figure 30: Percentage of Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners product launches with a raw claim, 2010-14
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Sugar use not slowing
- More natural sweeteners needed
- Households with children shifting away from sugar substitutes
- Confusion about sweetener types, need for more product information
Sugar Types Used
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- Despite health concerns, sugar is top sweetener
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- Figure 31: Sugar types used in past month, by generation, February 2015
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- Figure 32: Sugar types used in past month, by generation, February 2015
Sugar Substitutes Used or Seen
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- Baseline awareness of newer sugar substitutes
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- Figure 33: Sugar substitutes used or seen in past month, February 2015
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- Figure 34: Sugar substitutes used or seen in past month, Any use, by generation, February 2015
Sugar Substitutes Considered Natural
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- Agave considered most natural
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- Figure 35: Sugar substitutes considered natural, by gender, February 2015
Sweetened Products
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- Consumers paying more attention to food and beverages sugar content
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- Figure 36: Attention paid to sugar/sweeteners as an ingredient, February 2015
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- Figure 37: Pepsi True, TV ad, November 2014
- Older generations less likely to look at sugar content
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- Figure 38: Attention paid to sugar/sweetener as an ingredient, select products, by generation, February 2015
Purchase Factors
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- Calorie content most important for sugar substitute purchases
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- Figure 39: Factors when purchasing sugar/sugar substitutes, February 2015
- Millennials look for organic claims, added nutrition
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- Figure 40: Select factors when purchasing sugar substitutes, by Millennials, February 2015
Behaviors Related to Sugar and Sugar Substitutes
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- Households with children limiting sugar substitute use
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- Figure 41: Select Sugar/Sugar Substitutes Behaviors, by presence of children in household, February 2015
- Households with children see value in natural positioning
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- Figure 42: Select Sugar/Sugar Substitutes Behaviors, by presence of children in household, February 2015
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- Figure 43: Select Sugar/Sugar Substitutes Behaviors, by generation, February 2015
Attitudes toward Sugar and Sugar Substitutes
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- Consumer confusion, lack of information about sweeteners
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- Figure 44: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by Hispanic origin, February 2015
- Universal health concerns impacting perceptions
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- Figure 45: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by generations, February 2015
- Packaging color nearly as influential as brand
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- Figure 46: Select Attitudes toward sugar and sweeteners, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 47: Sugar and alternative sweetener clusters, February, 2015
- Group one: Super Sweet
- Group two: Naturally Sweet
- Group three: Simply Sweet
- Cluster methodology
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrups and molasses, at current prices, 2009-19
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
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- Figure 55: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Figure 56: US supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2009-14
- Figure 57: US sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
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- Figure 58: Natural supermarket sales of candy and individual snacks with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
- Figure 59: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
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- Figure 60: Natural supermarket sales of cold cereals with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
- Figure 61: Natural supermarket sales of energy bars and gels with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
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- Figure 62: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
- Figure 63: Natural supermarket sales of RTD tea and coffee, with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
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- Figure 64: Natural supermarket sales of refrigerated juices and functional beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
- Figure 65: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable functional beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
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- Figure 66: Natural supermarket sales of refrigerated juices and functional beverages with alternative sweeteners, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 and Feb. 22, 2015
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 67: MULO sales of sugar, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 68: MULO sales of syrups and molasses, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 69: MULO sales of sugar substitutes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 70: MULO sales of honey, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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