Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
- Segment performance
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Key players
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- Figure 3: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Non-dairy milk consumption increases, dairy milk remains flat
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- Figure 4: Total milk consumption, January 2015
- Nutrition, taste, protein top reasons for drinking non-dairy milk
- Health pushes dairy milk users to non-dairy milks
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- Figure 5: Total milk consumption – Any consumption, by reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Do consumers know the difference between non-dairy milks?
- Issues
- Insight: Increase consumer education
- How can products resonate with consumers?
- Issues
- Insight: Tap consumer’s personal needs to encourage trial
Trend Application
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- Trend: Hungry Planet
- Trend: Prove It
- Trend: Moral Brands
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of total milk
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of total milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Total category growth will continue
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- California drought, overseas demand, spurs high 2014 milk prices
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- Figure 9: Average retail milk prices, per gallon, US city average, January 2014-February 2015
- Conflicting media reports complicate health perceptions
- Positioning as a healthy beverage aids growth
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- Figure 10: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2009-12
- Race, presence of children impacts milk usage
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- Figure 11: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
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- Figure 12: Households with own children. by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
- Figure 13: Population percent change, by age and race, 2010-20
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Non-dairy milk sales up 94%, dairy milk up 14%
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Segment forecast at current prices
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Inflation-adjusted prices forecast dairy milk segment decline
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Forecast table output, at inflation-adjusted prices
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Whole milk sees largest sales gain in estimated 2014
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 2009-19
- Almond milk dominates non-dairy milk
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- Figure 19: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 2009-19
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Retail channels see strong sales gains
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales of total milk, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
- Natural channel sales increase 23%
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- Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
- Dairy/non-dairy 60/40 split in natural channels
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- Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
- Almond, soy, coconut are top non-dairy milks
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- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012
- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2014
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- Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
- Organic preferred for dairy milk, non-organic for non-dairy
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- Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Private label dominates leading companies
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Milk category sees 3% growth
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Brand Share
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- Flavored, organic dairy milks see growth
- Dean Foods declines 4%
- Prairie Farms experiences largest gains
- Organic milk’s strong demand continues
- Soy milk struggles, almond milk sees growth
- WhiteWave’s soy milk declines, almond milk grows
- Blue Diamond’s Almond Breeze experiences sales gains
- Name brand beats private label
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- Figure 29: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
- Dairy milk sales increase 3.2%
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Non-dairy milk brand share declines 4.4%
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Innovations and Innovators
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- Dairy milk offers additional nutrition
- And pushes protein
- Rise of new non-dairy milk types
- Cold-press next for non-dairy chilled milk
- Premium milk enters market
General Milk Consumption
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- Key points
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- Figure 32: Total milk consumption, January 2015
- Dairy milk consumption declining
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- Figure 33: Household milk consumption, average number of glasses consumed in past 30 days
- Men seek variety of milk types
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- Figure 34: Total milk personal consumption, by gender, January 2015
- Baby Boomers and older untapped market
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- Figure 35: Total milk personal consumption, by generation, January 2015
- Presence of children increases household consumption
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- Figure 36: Total milk personal consumption, by presence of children, January 2015
- Hispanics, Asians high non-dairy milk users
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- Figure 37: Total milk personal consumption, by race, January 2015
Non-Dairy Milk – Usage
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- Non-dairy milk used with foods and other beverages
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- Figure 38: Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
- Men drink; women use as ingredient
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- Figure 39: Non-dairy milk usage, by gender, January 2015
- Non-dairy milk as exercise aid
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- Figure 40: Non-dairy milk usage, by generation, January 2015
- Households with children drink at more occasions
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- Figure 41: Non-dairy milk usage, by children in household, January 2015
Non-Dairy Milk – Reasons for Usage
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- Key points: Nutrition, taste, and protein content most important
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- Figure 42: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2015
- Younger men most likely to drink non-dairy for protein
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- Figure 43: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by age and gender, January 2015
- Younger women drinking for taste; older women for protein
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- Figure 44: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by age and gender, January 2015
For Health – Non-dairy Milk Consumption
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- Key points
- Almond milk drinkers using as exercise aid, meal replacement
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- Figure 45: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
- Almond milk drinkers look for nutrition, protein, weight loss
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- Figure 46: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
- Millennials, Gen Xers agree non-dairy milk healthier than dairy milk
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- Figure 47: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk is healthier than dairy milk, by generation, January 2015
- Millennials, Gen Xers agree non-dairy milk healthier for kids
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by generation, non-dairy milk is healthier for kids than dairy milk, January 2015
- Half of Hispanics believe non-dairy to be healthier for adults than dairy
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- Figure 49: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by race, January 2015
- Households with children find non-dairy milk healthier than dairy milk
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- Figure 50: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by presence of children, January 2015
As a Beverage – Non-dairy Milk Consumption
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- Key points
- Almond milk popular for beverage use, as a snack
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- Figure 51: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
- Millennials want products that help them lead healthier lives
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- Figure 52: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, any agree, by generation, January 2015
- Households with children less likely to drink as beverage
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk is good with food, but not by itself, by presence of children, January 2015
Ingredient Usage
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- Restaurants offer non-dairy milks in familiar forms
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- Figure 54: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
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- Figure 55: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
Consumption Shift – Dairy to Non-dairy
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- Nutrition, allergies push dairy milk users to non-dairy milks
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- Figure 56: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
Attitudes and Attributes
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- Key points
- Heavy users unaware of nutritional differences between non-dairy milks
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- Figure 57: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by gender and age, January 2015
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- Figure 58: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk innovation, by gender and age, January 2015
- Men, Hispanic and Asians overwhelmed by choices
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- Figure 59: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I AM OVERWHELMED by the wide selection of non-dairy milks, by gender and age, January 2015
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- Figure 60: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I am overwhelmed by the wide selection of non-dairy milks, by race, January 2015
- Heavy users see environmental impact of non-dairy
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- Figure 61: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by gender and age, January 2015
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- Figure 62: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I am concerned about the negative environmental/ecological effect from non-dairy milk production, by race, January 2015
Purchasing Habits
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- Key points
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- Figure 63: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, January 2015
- Package offers ways to increase consumption
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- Figure 64: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
- Preference of natural vs organic
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- Figure 65: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by generation, January 2015
- Nutrition more important than calories
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- Figure 66: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
- Figure 67: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by race, January 2015
- Refrigerated non-dairy preferred
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- Figure 68: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
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- Figure 69: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk sold in the refrigerated section is fresher than non-dairy milk sold on store shelves, by generation, January 2015
- Figure 70: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by generation, January 2015
CHAID analysis – Specialty/Holiday Non-Dairy Flavors
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- Target for specialty/holiday flavors
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- Figure 71: Holiday flavors – CHAID – Tree output, January 2015
- CHAID table output
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- Figure 72: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk – CHAID – Table output, January 2015
- Methodology
Appendix – Trade Associations
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- Almond Board of California
- American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI)
- American Soybean Association (ASA)
- International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA)
- National Dairy Council (NDC)
- Organic Trade Association (OTA)
- United Soybean Board (USB)
- US Dairy Export Council (USDEC)
- Regional dairy councils
- State associations
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