What you need to know

Dollar sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies showed little change at current prices between 2009 and 2014, settling down slightly to reach $16 billion (a decrease of 9% when adjusted for inflation).

The lack of growth (and projected future declines) results from increasing competition from other drink categories, including ready-to-drink tea and flavored water; health concerns that shine the spotlight on sugar and calorie counts; and a preference for fresh products. Encouraging expanded usage occasions and positioning products with a focus on functional benefits, such as nutrition delivery and satiety, as well as enhanced freshness positioning are in order. Such approaches may help to mitigate further dips. Mintel forecasts a drop of 5% through 2019 (15% inflation adjusted).

Definition

This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Juice and Juice Drinks – US, November 2013; RTD Smoothies – US, December 2012; Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks – US, January 2012; Juice and Juice Drinks: The Market – US, February 2011; Juice and Juice Drinks: The Market – US, January 2011; and earlier titles of the same names.

This report covers total retail sales of:

  • 100% juice – fruit and vegetable juices with no other ingredients added; includes both 100% juice blends and 100% pure juice of a single kind

  • Juice drinks – contain ingredients other than fruit and/or vegetable juice, such as corn syrup or other sweeteners and flavorings

  • RTD (ready-to-drink) smoothies – drinks made with fruit and/or juice with some kind of thickener, such as fruit puree or milk

Fruit and vegetable juice and juice drinks covered here include those sold in a number of formats:

  • Aseptic (boxed), canned, or bottled

  • Shelf-stable, refrigerated, or frozen

Powdered juice drink and smoothie mixes are excluded from this report, as are fruit juice energy drinks, such as Rockstar Juiced, and nutritionally enhanced smoothies, such as Muscle Milk.

Only products sold at retail are included. Products sold through foodservice, gyms/health clubs, and other non-retail venues are excluded.

Value figures throughout this report are at rsp (retail selling prices) excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated.

Data sources

Sales data

Market Size and Forecast: total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; USDA Economic Research Service; forecast developed by Mintel

Segment Performance: total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; USDA Economic Research Service; forecast developed by Mintel

Retail Channels: based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; USDA Economic Research Service; except supermarket and drug store sales, which are based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews

Leading Companies and Brand Analysis section: based on MULO sales data from Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews. MULO is defined as Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: total US grocery, mass, total US drug, total Walmart, dollar, military, and club stores/Mintel. Note that the values shown in this section differ from the Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance sections of this report. Companies and brands sales data encompasses only sales through MULO channels, while Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance sales cover the entire market.

Consumer survey data

For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through Lightspeed GMI to explore consumer consumption of and attitudes and behaviors toward juice, juice drinks, and smoothies. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in August 2014 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.

Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly over-samples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings.

Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results.

Mintel also has analyzed data from Experian Marketing Services, using the Simmons NCS (National Consumer Study), the Simmons Teen Study, and the Simmons Kids Study.

The Experian Marketing Services/Simmons NCS/NHCS was carried out during April 2013-June 2014, and the results are based on the sample of 24,073 adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population.

The Experian Marketing Services/Simmons Teen Study was conducted during Spring 2014 (April 2013-June 2014) and based on a sample of 1,692 teens aged 12-17, with results weighted to represent the US teen population. The Simmons Kids Study was conducted during Spring 2014 (April 2013-June 2014) and based on a sample 1,975 kids aged 6-11, with results weighted to represent the US kid population.

While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses for race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.

Abbreviations and terms

Abbreviations

The following is a list of abbreviations used in this report:

CPI Consumer Price Index
CSD Carbonated soft drink
DPS Dr Pepper/Snapple Group
GMO Genetically modified organism
GNPD Global New Products Database
HPP High-pressure processing
MULO Multi Outlet, representative of following channels: total US grocery, mass, total US drug, total Walmart, dollar, military, and club
NCS/NHCS National Consumer Study/National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Marketing Services)
: :
: :

Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as:

World War II/Swing generations Members of the WWII Generation were born in 1932 or before and are aged 82 or older in 2014. Members of the Swing Generation were born between 1933 and 1945 and are aged 69-81 in 2014.
Baby Boomers The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 50 and 68.
Generation X The generation born between 1965 and 1976. In 2014, Gen Xers are between the ages of 38 and 49.
Millennials* Born between 1977 and 1994, Millennials are aged 20-37 in 2014.
iGeneration Born between 1995 and 2007, members of iGen are aged 7-19 in 2014.
Emerging generation The newest generation born in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2014 members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are younger than 7.

* also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers

In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows:

CPI The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly, and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates.

The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars.

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition.
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