Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- Quest for flavor and convenience will fuel the coffee category’s continued growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
- Coffeehouse flavors could inspire in-home options
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- Figure 2: Top 10 coffee types menued at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
- Consumers of all types drink less coffee as the day progresses
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- Figure 3: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
- Multi-serve drip coffee makers remain the norm in most households
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- Figure 4: Coffee brewer ownership, by generations, June 2014
- Convenience, ease of use lead reasons behind choice of coffee machine
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- Figure 5: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by gender and age, June 2014
- Roast coffee share slips, while single-cup gains
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19, in millions
- Single-cup coffee, RTD companies offset declines from roast, instant manufacturers
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- Figure 7: MULO market share of coffee sales, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending June 15, 2014
- Consumers aged 18-34 most likely to drink single-cup, RTD coffee
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- Figure 8: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by gender and age, June 2014
- Potential for healthy coffee innovation
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- Figure 9: Any Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Pods could resonate with older consumers, though perhaps not single-cup
- Issue
- Insight: Forthcoming pod carafe machines could entice older consumers to the pod
- Energy drinks emerge as coffee substitute – can they take over coffee’s turf?
- Issue
- Insight: Coffee can serve as a natural energy booster
- Can RTD coffees expect the same growth as single-cup?
- Issue
- Insight: RTDs should capitalize on Millennial interest with flavorful coffees that embrace other attributes
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Who are the Joneses?
- Trend: Minimize Me
- Trend: Secret, Secret
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Coffee growing but slowing
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- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Single-cup propels the coffee category to continued growth
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2008-18
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Commodity prices of coffee rise dramatically
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- Figure 13: Monthly average price for raw coffee supplies, January 2012-June 2014
- Millennials growing and embracing quick, convenient options
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- Figure 14: US population, by generation share, 2014
- Diverse population drinking a diversity of coffee drinks
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- Figure 15: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Energy drinks, CSDs compete for coffee’s caffeine benefit
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- Figure 16: Reasons for drinking energy drinks, by age, June 2014
- Foodservice steals in-home coffee occasions by promoting premium and specialty coffee drinks
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- Figure 17: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 18: Top 10 coffee types menued at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
- Figure 19: Drivers for coffeehouses and donut shops, by day parts, September 2013
- Tea has caffeine plus a healthier reputation
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- Figure 20: Attitudes and behaviors toward tea, by generations, any agree responses May 2014
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Single-cup and RTD drive coffee category growth
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- Figure 21: Total US retail sales of coffee, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Roast coffee’s loss is single-cup’s gain
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- Figure 23: Total US Retail sales of roast coffee, 2009-19
- Single-cup growth slows but will still overtake roast coffee within three years
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- Figure 24: Total US retail sales and forecast single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
- RTD sales value grows 26% vs 2012, second only to single-cup
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- Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
- Instant coffee continues to erode
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- Figure 26: Total US Retail sales of instant coffee, 2009-19
- Figure 27: Household usage of instant coffee, by brand, February 2008-March 2014
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- Figure 28: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2009-14
- Figure 29: Household usage of instant coffee, February 2008-March 2014
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- Figure 30: Household volume usage of instant coffee, February 2008-March 2014
- Figure 31: Household usage of instant coffee, by flavors, February 2009-March 2014
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets and other channels vie for coffee sales
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- Figure 32: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel and market share, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Coffee sees distinctly more activity in other retail channels than most other food and drink
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- Figure 33: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
- Natural grocery stores coffee sales grew 20%, more than any other retail channel
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- Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, at current prices, 2012-14*
- Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of coffee, by segment, 2012 and 2014*
- Single-cup pods begin to emerge in natural supermarkets
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- Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of ground coffee, by packaging, 2012 and 2014*
Leading Companies and Brand Analysis
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- Key points
- Roast coffee sales tumble as single-cup continues upward climb
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- Figure 37: Folgers, “Folgers Gourmet Selections K-Cup Packs Commercial,” TV Ad, August 2014
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- Figure 38: MULO sales of coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Roast coffee brands shrink
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- Figure 39: Maxwell House, “GOOD,” TV Ad, April 2014
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- Figure 40: Seattle’s Best, “Seattle's Best Coffeehouse Blend is the Taste That Duncan Loves,” TV Ad, March 2014
- Figure 41: MULO sales of roast coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Single-serve espresso cups, store brands drive sales in the single-serve segment
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- Figure 42: Gevalia, “Cheers,” TV Ad, August 2014
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- Figure 43: MULO sales of single-cup coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Starbucks maintains dominance in RTD segment
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- Figure 44: Starbucks, “Purrfection,” Tumblr Post, 2014
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- Figure 45: International Delight, “Skip the Line,” TV Ad, May 2014
- Figure 46: MULO sales of ready to drink coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Innovations and Innovators
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- Single-cup launches overtake those of roast coffee
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- Figure 47: Coffee launches by product launch type, 2009-14*
- Coffeehouse and other foodservice brands take their mark into single-cup formats
- Consumers are looking for a healthful benefit from their coffee
- Cold brewing takes RTD form
The Consumer – Coffee Brewer Ownership
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- Key points
- Multi-serve drip coffee makers remain standard with single-cup pod makers in second place
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- Figure 48: Coffee brewer ownership, by generations, June 2014
- Households with children more likely to own single-serve machines
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- Figure 49: Coffee brewer ownership, by presence of children in household, June 2014
- Coffee connoisseurs own the widest variety of coffee-making machines
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- Figure 50: Coffee brewer ownership, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
The Consumer – Reasons for Coffee Brewer Preference
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- Key points
- Ease of use, coffee taste are top reasons for preferred brewer
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- Figure 51: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, June 2014
- Single-cup machine users demonstrate a stronger degree of brand loyalty
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- Figure 52: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by generations, June 2014
- Multi-serve owners most habit-driven, single-serve drip maker users less happy with taste
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- Figure 53: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by coffee brewer ownership, June 2014
- Espresso-pod users like ability to accommodate many drinkers with a variety of coffee drinks
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- Figure 54: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by coffee brewer ownership, June 2014
- Cold brew coffee connoisseurs say their machine/s offer a coffeehouse experience
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- Figure 55: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by any consumption – Types of Coffee, June 2014
The Consumer – Occasions for Drinking Coffee
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- Key points
- Morning and breakfast still most common times to drink coffee
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- Figure 56: Occasions for drinking coffee prepared at home, June 2014
- Younger adults drink coffee at less conventional times of day, more likely on the go
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- Figure 57: Location, meal occasion and time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by generations, June 2014
- Millennial women are biggest afternoon coffee drinkers, Millennial men drink coffee in the evening
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- Figure 58: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by gender and age, June 2014
- RTD and cold brew coffee drinkers consume at lunch, in the evening
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- Figure 59: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 60: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
- Half of Millennial women drink home-brewed coffee on the go
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- Figure 61: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by gender and age, June 2014
- Parents drink coffee everywhere: at home and on the go
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- Figure 62: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by presence of children in household, June 2014
- Retail RTD and cold brew coffee drinkers drink it out of home
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- Figure 63: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
The Consumer – Consumption by Type
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- Key points
- Ground/whole bean, espresso coffee usage holds steady; RTD just under 25% usage
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- Figure 64: Household usage of ground or whole bean coffee, February 2008-March 2014
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- Figure 65: Personal consumption of bottled or canned coffee drinks, February 2008-March 2014
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- Figure 66: Household usage of espresso/cappuccino, February 2008-March 2014
- Ground coffee consumption high; Millennials driving single-cup, RTD coffee usage
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- Figure 67: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, June 2014
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- Figure 68: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 69: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by gender and age, June 2014
- Households with children significantly more likely to drink all coffee types than households without kids
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- Figure 70: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by presence of children in household, June 2014
The Consumer – Consumption by Frequency
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- Key points
- Ground coffee has daily at-home consumption
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- Figure 71: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home, June 2014
- Most coffee drinkers are have high to moderate consumption
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- Figure 72: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
- Single-cup and RTD consumers are high frequency overall coffee drinkers
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- Figure 73: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Usage Groups, by Any consumption* – Types of coffee, June 2014
- Swing Generation most likely to be high frequency coffee consumers
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- Figure 74: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Usage groups*, by generations, June 2014
- Parents are high frequency coffee consumers – across all coffee types
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- Figure 75: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – High usage*, by presence of children in household, June 2014
The Consumer – Consumption by Volume
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- Key points
- Households drinking 4.5 cups of home-brewed coffee per day
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- Figure 76: Household volume usage of ground or whole bean coffee, February 2008-March 2014
- Personal at-home coffee consumption has mean range 1.5-2.9 cups per day
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- Figure 77: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume, June 2014
- Millennial single-cup, RTD consumption lead results in more average cups per day than other generation groups
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- Figure 78: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by generations, June 2014
- Parents average more coffee volume per day than those without kids
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- Figure 79: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by presence of children in household, June 2014
The Consumer – Brands Used
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- Key points
- Folgers leads in ground/whole bean usage with other brands taking usage from Maxwell House
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- Figure 80: Household usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by brand, February 2008-March 2014
- Other brands lead RTD coffee usage
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- Figure 81: Personal consumption of bottled or canned coffee drinks, by brand, February 2008-March 2014
The Consumer – Important Product Attributes
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- Key points
- Millennials seek coffeehouse experience in retail product purchase
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- Figure 82: Important product attributes, by generations, June 2014
- Parents choose coffeehouse brands, premium/gourmet, and bulk size
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- Figure 83: Important product attributes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
- RTD coffee drinkers attracted to a coffeehouse experience via flavor, freshness, and premium quality
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- Figure 84: Important product attributes, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 85: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by generations, June 2014
- High frequency coffee drinkers, mostly older adults, seek national brands
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- Figure 86: Important product attributes, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
The Consumer – Attitudes and Behaviors toward Coffee
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- Key points
- Iced coffee and new flavored coffee are desired by Millennials
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- Figure 87: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 88: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by presence of children in household, June 2014
- Consumers want additional benefits from coffee – strong potential for innovation and growth
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- Figure 89: Attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 90: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 91: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by presence of children in household, June 2014
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- Figure 92: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- All ethnicities more likely to use single-serve drip machines with less likelihood to like the coffee taste
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- Figure 93: Coffee brewer ownership, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
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- Figure 94: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
- Coffee with lunch is more common among all race/ethnic groups
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- Figure 95: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
- Figure 96: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
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- Figure 97: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
- Hispanics drink RTDs and cold brew more than traditional hot coffee
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- Figure 98: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
- Hispanics drink RTDs with higher frequency than all other consumers
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- Figure 99: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Usage groups*, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
- Blacks, Hispanics favor major retail brands, look for freshness dates
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- Figure 100: Important product attributes, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
- Hispanics are key opportunity for major retail brand RTDs with added benefits and flavors
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- Figure 101: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Coffee brewer ownership
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- Figure 102: Coffee brewer ownership, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 103: Coffee brewer ownership, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 104: Coffee brewer ownership, by age and household income, June 2014
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- Figure 105: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 106: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by age and household income, June 2014
- The Consumer – Personal Consumption of Coffee
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- Figure 107: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by age and household income, June 2014
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- Figure 108: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 109: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
- Occasions for drinking coffee prepared at home
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- Figure 110: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 111: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 112: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 113: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
- Important coffee product attributes
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- Figure 114: Important product attributes, by gender and age, June 2014
- Attitudes and behaviors toward coffee
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- Figure 115: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 116: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by age and household income, June 2014
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- Figure 117: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 118: Attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, June 2014
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- Figure 119: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 120: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
Appendix – Trade Associations
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