Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Ice cream and frozen novelties sales freeze in 2014
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2009-19
- Leading companies
- Blue Bell pushes 10% growth as other leaders decline
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- Figure 2: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Segment performance
- Steady growth of frozen yogurt slows in 2014
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- Figure 3: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties (and percentage change) ($ millions), by segment, at current prices, 2009-14
- Competitive context
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- Figure 4: Reasons for buying less (top five), April 2014
- The consumer
- Nearly a third of frozen treat eaters look for all-natural products
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- Figure 5: Retail purchase drivers (health-related) (top five), April 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Why the slowdown in ice cream and frozen novelty sales?
- Issues
- Insight: Expand permissible indulgence
- What are growth opportunities in the ice cream and frozen novelties category?
- Issue
- Insight: Emphasize quality, even in smaller formats
- How strong is the demand for non-dairy frozen treats?
- Issue
- Insight: Expanding dairy-free offerings may be one means of shining up the health halo
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Non-Standard Society
- Trend: Factory Fear
- Trend: Locavore
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Ice cream and frozen novelties sales freeze in 2014
- Sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2009-19
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Consumers eating less ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 9: Change in purchase, by purchase by segment, April 2014
- Figure 10: Change in purchase, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
- Health concerns lead reasons for cutting back
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- Figure 11: Reasons for buying less, by purchase by segment, April 2014
- Figure 12: Reasons for buying less, by purchase by segment, April 2014 (continued)
- Close to half of frozen treats eaters say restaurant/ice cream shop offerings are better quality than the freezer case
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- Figure 13: Household frozen treat purchase, by personal location, April 2014
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Frozen yogurt grows, but remains small part of the market
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Ice cream sales grow 6% from 2009-14, boosted by gelato
- US retail sales of ice cream
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Spotlight on gelato
- US retail sales of gelato brands within the ice cream segment
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of gelato brands within the ice cream segment at current prices, 2009-19
- Frozen novelties grow 7% from 2009-14
- US retail sales of frozen novelties
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Frozen yogurt and tofu segment grows 67% from 2009-19
- US retail sales of frozen yogurt and tofu
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt and tofu at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 21: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt and tofu at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Sherbet, sorbet, and ices only segment to fall over measurement period
- US retail sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices
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- Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 23: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets continue to dominate, despite sales declines
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- Figure 24: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2012-14
- Store brands represent slightly more than a quarter of launches
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- Figure 25: Frozen treats launches, by private label, 2010-14
- Young shoppers open to wider array of purchase locations
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- Figure 26: Purchase location, by age, April 2014
- Low-income households look to save on frozen treats at mass outlets
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- Figure 27: Purchase location, by household income, April 2014
- Mass merchandisers and club stores appeal to HHs with children
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- Figure 28: Purchase location, by presence of children in household, April 2014
- High-frequency eaters patronize a range of outlets
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- Figure 29: Purchase location, personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
Leading Companies and Brand Analysis
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- Key points
- Nestlé and Unilever continue to reign, Blue Bell posts strongest growth
- MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Ice cream segment grows slightly as leading brands focus on flavor
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- Figure 31: Blue Bell TV Ad, “Show and Tell,” 2014
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- Figure 32: Blue Bunny TV Ad, “Real Ice Cream. Real Moments.” 2014
- MULO sales of ice cream
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- Figure 33: MULO sales of ice cream at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Popularity of Greek yogurt boosts frozen yogurt sales
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- Figure 34: Cherry Garcia, Product Description, July 2014
- Figure 35: Introducing Two New Healthy Choice Flavors, Twitter Photo, July 2014
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- Figure 36: “World’s Shortest Grant Application - #140difference,” YouTube Video, 2014
- MULO sales of frozen yogurt
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- Figure 37: MULO sales of frozen yogurt at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Sherbet, sorbet, and ices segment declines from poor differentiation
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- Figure 38: “Talenti Gelato: A Vacation For Your Mouth,” YouTube Video, 2014
- MULO sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices
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- Figure 39: MULO sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- New frozen novelty formats fail to captivate consumers
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- Figure 40: “It’s All Good,” Promotional Song, 2013
- MULO sales of frozen novelties
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- Figure 41: MULO sales of frozen novelties at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Innovations and Innovators
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- New product innovation down
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- Figure 42: Frozen treats launches, by launch type, 2010-14*
- Non-dairy offerings on the rise
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- Figure 43: Frozen treats launches, by subcategory, 2010-14*
- Vanilla, chocolate lead flavor launches, see slight decline
- We all scream for…vegetables
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- Figure 44: Frozen treats launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-14*
- Category can find inspiration from international flavors and trends
- Brands from other categories enter the market with street cred
- Dessert-inspired flavors hit, well, dessert
- Premiumization and elimination of allergens among growing claims
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- Figure 45: Frozen treats launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-14*
- Product names imply healthier fare
- Handheld formats on the rise
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- Figure 46: Frozen treats launches, by format type, 2010-14*
Social Media
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- Key points
- Market overview
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 47: Key social media metrics, June 2014
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 48: Brand usage and awareness for selected ice cream and frozen novelty brands, April 2014
- Interactions with ice cream and frozen novelty brands
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- Figure 49: Interactions with select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, April 2014
- Leading online campaigns
- Highlighting lifestyles
- Flavor innovations
- Apps and gaming
- What we think
- Online conversations
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- Figure 50: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by week, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
- Where are people talking about ice cream and frozen novelties?
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- Figure 51: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by page type, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 52: Topics of conversation around selected ice cream and frozen treat brands, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
Frozen Treat Consumption
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- Key points
- More than eight in 10 adults eat frozen treats
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- Figure 53: Frozen treat purchase (for self), personal consumption by segment, April 2014
- 10% of category participants eat frozen treats at least once a day
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- Figure 54: Consumption frequency, personal consumption by segment, April 2014
- Men show greater consumption frequency
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- Figure 55: Consumption frequency, by gender and age, April 2014
- 25-34s sweet on gelato and non-dairy offerings
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- Figure 56: Frozen treat purchase (for self), personal consumption by age, April 2014
- … particularly young men
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- Figure 57: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by gender and age, April 2014
- Non-dairy consumers also appear more engaged in the products
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- Figure 58: Consumption frequency, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
- Frozen yogurt and gelato may appear as cost prohibitive
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- Figure 59: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by household income, April 2014
- Smaller formats may appeal to single-person HHs
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- Figure 60: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by household size, April 2014
Purchase Drivers
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- Key points
- Flavor big among seniors, young shoppers look for indulgence
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- Figure 61: Retail purchase drivers, by age, April 2014
- Seniors most finicky
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- Figure 62: Alternate product purchase decision, by age, April 2014
- Older consumers interested in low-in, younger users want more
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- Figure 63: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by age, April 2014
- Young men open to ice cream and frozen novelty experimentation
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- Figure 64: Alternate product purchase decision, by gender and age, April 2014
- Low earners aim to save money, higher earners want premium, health
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- Figure 65: Retail purchase drivers, by household income, April 2014
- Daily eaters less price conscious, higher than average interest in health
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- Figure 66: Retail purchase drivers, personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
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- Figure 67: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
- Gelato buyers less driven by price
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- Figure 68: Retail purchase drivers, by purchase by segment, April 2014
- Non-dairy buyers also less interested in price, more likely to prioritize health
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- Figure 69: Retail purchase drivers, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
- Dairy-free buyers significantly more interested in natural and organic
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- Figure 70: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by purchase by segment, April 2014
Attitudes towards Frozen Treats
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- Key points
- Quality
- Nearly half of frozen treat eaters believe ice cream shops best CPG
- Men may be more brand aware, but appreciate local quality
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- Figure 71: Attitudes toward frozen treats (quality), by gender and age, April 2014
- Seniors fine with quality of freezer case offering
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- Figure 72: Attitudes toward frozen treats (quality), by age, April 2014
- Daily frozen treat eaters twice as likely to prefer local
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- Figure 73: Attitudes toward frozen treats (quality), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
- Occasion
- More than a third of respondents eat the products away from home
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- Figure 74: Attitudes toward frozen treats (occasion), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
- Health
- Majority of respondents say frozen yogurt is healthier than ice cream
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- Figure 75: Attitudes toward frozen treats (health), by age, April 2014
- Frozen yogurt eaters tolerant of low-in varieties
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- Figure 76: Attitudes toward frozen treats (health), personal consumption by segment, April 2014
- …as are high-frequency eaters
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- Figure 77: Attitudes toward frozen treats (health), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
- Price
- Majority of respondents willing to spend more on quality
- Seniors not sold on store brands
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- Figure 78: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), by age, April 2014
- Lower earners not willing to spend more
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- Figure 79: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), by household income, April 2014
- Gelato eaters will pay for quality
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- Figure 80: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), personal consumption by segment, April 2014
- …as will non-dairy consumers
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- Figure 81: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
- Daily eaters are generally more tolerant
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- Figure 82: Attitudes toward frozen treats (price), personal consumption by frequency*, April 2014
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Gelato, non-dairy find favor among Asian consumers
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- Figure 83: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
- Other segments appeal to higher-earning Hispanics
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- Figure 84: Frozen treat purchase (for self), by Hispanic origin and household income, April 2014
- Hispanics appear less price conscious about frozen treats
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- Figure 85: Retail purchase drivers, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
- Higher-earning Hispanics are particularly attuned to quality
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- Figure 86: Attitudes toward frozen treats, by Hispanic origin and household income, April 2014
Custom Consumer Group – Households with Children
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- Key points
- HHs with children more likely to buy frozen treats across the board
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- Figure 87: Household frozen treat purchase, by presence of children in household, April 2014
- Opportunity exists to grow sales to parents of kids 5 and under
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- Figure 88: Household frozen treat purchase, by who purchased for, April 2014
- Moms stick to ice cream, dads over index in most everything else
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- Figure 89: Household frozen treat purchase, by gender and parents with children in household, April 2014
- Parents particularly interested in a product looking healthy
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- Figure 90: Retail purchase drivers, by presence of children in household, April 2014
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- Figure 91: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by presence of children in household, April 2014
- Kids-focused frozen yogurt brands may hit sweet spot
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- Figure 92: Attitudes toward frozen treats, by presence of children in household, April 2014
- Teens eat ice cream only slightly more than once per week
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- Figure 93: Ice cream, November 2012-December 2013
- Kids eat it slightly more often
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- Figure 94: Ice cream, December 2013
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Frozen treat purchase
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- Figure 95: Household frozen treat purchase, by age, April 2014
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- Figure 96: Household frozen treat purchase, by gender and age, April 2014
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- Figure 97: Household frozen treat purchase, by household income, April 2014
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- Figure 98: Household frozen treat purchase, by household size, April 2014
- Consumption frequency
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- Figure 99: Consumption frequency, by gender, April 2014
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- Figure 100: Consumption frequency, by age, April 2014
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- Figure 101: Consumption frequency, by household income, April 2014
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- Figure 102: Consumption frequency, by purchase by segment, April 2014
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- Figure 103: Consumption frequency, by personal location, April 2014
- Purchase drivers
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- Figure 104: Retail purchase drivers, by gender, April 2014
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- Figure 105: Retail purchase drivers, by gender and age, April 2014
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- Figure 106: Retail purchase drivers, by household size, April 2014
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- Figure 107: Alternate product purchase decision, by household income, April 2014
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- Figure 108: Alternate product purchase decision, by household size, April 2014
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- Figure 109: Alternate product purchase decision, by purchase by segment, April 2014
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- Figure 110: Alternate product purchase decision, personal consumption by dairy/non-dairy, April 2014
- Purchase drivers (health-related)
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- Figure 111: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by gender and age, April 2014
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- Figure 112: Retail purchase drivers (health-related), by personal location, April 2014
- Purchase location
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- Figure 113: Purchase location, by gender and age, April 2014
- Attitudes toward frozen treats
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- Figure 114: Attitudes toward frozen treats, April 2014
Appendix – Social Media
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 115: Brand usage or awareness, April 2014
- Figure 116: Ben & Jerry’s usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 117: Breyers usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 118: Magnum usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 119: Häagen-Dazs usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 120: Nestlé Drumstick usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 121: Dreyer’s usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
- Activities done
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- Figure 122: Activities done, April 2014
- Figure 123: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 124: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 125: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 126: Ben & Jerry’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 127: Breyers – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 128: Breyers – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 129: Breyers – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 130: Breyers – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 131: Magnum – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 132: Magnum – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 133: Magnum – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 134: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 135: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 136: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 137: Häagen-Dazs – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 138: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 139: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 140: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 141: Nestlé Drumstick – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 142: Dreyer’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 143: Dreyer’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 144: Dreyer’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 145: Key social media indicators of selected brands, June 2014
- Online conversations
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- Figure 146: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by week, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
- Figure 147: Online mentions for select ice cream and frozen novelty brands, by page type, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
- Figure 148: Topics of conversation around selected ice cream and frozen treat brands, July 7, 2013-July 6, 2014
Appendix – Trade Associations
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