- Contents
- *Analyst Comment
- Dutch malaise may be drawing to a close
- What we’ve seen
- 2013 was weak
- Figure 1: The Netherlands: Year-on-year growth in retail sales, selected major sectors, current prices, 2013
- 2014 should be better
- Figure 2: The Netherlands: Consumer confidence levels, May 2013-May 2014
- Looking ahead
What we’ve seen
A number of retailers have been reporting poor performance in the Netherlands:
In May 2014, Dutch department store group, De Bijenkorf posted a 1% fall in sales for the year ending February 2014.
Also in May, Alliance Boots reported full-year revenues down 5% in the Netherlands.
Carpetright issued a profits warning in March 2014, citing ‘difficult trading conditions’ in the Netherlands.
2013 was weak
The Netherlands has seen an extended period of economic malaise:
GDP fell a further 0.8% in real terms in 2013;
In 2013, there was zero annual growth in total consumer spending;
Total retail sales fell 2.4% in 2013. This was on top of a 1.3% decline in 2012.
2014 should be better
But there are some positive signs emerging:
The country exited recession in Q3 2013, as positive quarter-on-quarter economic growth returned and the IMF forecasts real-terms GDP growth of 0.8% for 2014;
Q1 2014 retail sales were the least negative for two years. Positive growth in non-food sales were up, year-on-year, for the first time in more than three years;
Consumer confidence appears to be trending upwards:
Looking ahead
The economic recovery is so far relatively weak. Austerity measures remain in place and households and businesses will also need to strengthen their finances before embarking on spending.
Consumers and retailers should not expect a swift recovery.
But in retail the lowest point is likely to have been reached: we are seeing early signs of a turnaround.