Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2008-18
- Other segment leads in growth, skim/low-fat milk continues to dominate
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer, by segment, 2008-18
- Market factors
- Producers avoid “dairy cliff,” increased global demand hikes milk prices
- Obesity concerns continue to drive health trends
- Households with children top milk purchasers
- Multicultural population growth encourages increased milk consumption
- Retail channels
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- Figure 3: Total US retail sales of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
- Key players
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- Figure 4: MULO sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013
- The consumer
- Young consumers most increasing their dairy, non-dairy product purchases
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- Figure 5: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Buying more, by generations, February 2014
- Dairy, non-dairy products most consumed as an accompaniment, at home
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- Figure 6: Occasions and locations for drinking, February 2014
- Younger consumers prefer refrigerated dairy, non-dairy, name brand products
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- Figure 7: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by generations, February 2014
- Respondents interested in natural sweeteners, sophisticated flavors for flavored milks
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- Figure 8: Attitudes and behaviors toward flavored dairy and non-dairy milk and cream/creamer – Any agree, February 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Can health angle turn around the milk category?
- Issues
- Insight
- Can milk retailers be successful in the on-the-go market?
- Issues
- Insight
- Is flavoring the answer to category innovation?
- Issues
- Insight
- How important is the refrigerated section to non-dairy products?
- Issues
- Insight
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Extend My Brand
- Trend: The Big Issue
- Trend: Transumers
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Fluctuating milk prices, new health angle affect milk category growth
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- Figure 9: The Food-at-Home annual price change, by category, 2008-14
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, 2008-18
- Figure 11: Total US retail sale of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2008-18
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Producers avoid “dairy cliff,” increased global demand hikes milk prices
- Health trends put new spin on milk, childhood obesity remains a concern
- Households with children more likely to purchase milk products
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- Figure 13: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Multicultural population growth encourages increased milk consumption
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- Figure 14: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer, by race, February 2014
- Greater household disposable income supports high milk prices
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- Figure 15: Real disposable personal income, February 2007-October 2013
Competitive Context
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- Competition from other beverages
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- Figure 16: Non-alcoholic and alcoholic drink purchases, November 2013
- Other forms of dairy already in the on-the-go, breakfast, health spaces
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Other segment drives category growth, skim/low-fat milk falters
- Sales of market, by segment
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
- Skim/low-fat milk remains category leader, but declines continue
- Sales and forecast of refrigerated skim/low-fat milk
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated skim/low-fat milk, 2008-18
- Whole milk recovers from declines, new health trends may support growth
- Sales and forecast of refrigerated whole milk
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- Figure 19: Total US retail sales of refrigerated whole milk, 2008-18
- Flavored dairy milks could bounce back as milk benefits highlighted
- Sales and forecast of refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales of refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk, 2008-18
- Other segment sees high growth as non-dairy milk popularity surges
- Sales and forecast of other milk products
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- Figure 21: Total US retail sales of other milk products (includes ready-to-drink milk/milk substitutes, refrigerated kefir/milk substitutes/soy milk; refrigerated milkshakes/non-dairy drinks), 2008-18
- Cream/half & half segment remains small with consistent growth
- Sales and forecast of refrigerated cream/half & half
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- Figure 22: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cream/half & half, 2008-18
- Coffee creamer segment forecast to remain successful through 2018
- Sales and forecast of coffee creamer
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- Figure 23: Total US retail sales of coffee creamer, 2008-18
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- The other retail channel closing gap between channel leader supermarkets
- Sales of market, by channel
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- Figure 24: Total US retail sales of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
- Supermarkets, drug stores struggle to reach pre-recession sales
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- Figure 25: Total US retail sales of milk, creamer, and non-diary milk, by channel, at current prices, 2008-13
- Sales of dairy and non-dairy milk in the natural channel
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- Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2011-13
- Figure 27: National supermarket sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
- Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of dairy and non-dairy milk, by organic content, 2011 and 2013
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- Figure 29: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, 2011 and 2013
- Figure 30: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by shelf placement, 2011 and 2013
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- National brands catching up to private label in milk market
- Manufacturer sales of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Brand Share – Dairy Milk
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- Key points
- Skim/low-fat milk segment continues downward trend
- Manufacturer sales of skim/low-fat milk
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of skim/low-fat milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Brand loyalty strong in private label skim/low-fat milk
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- Figure 33: Key purchase measures for the top brands of skim/low-fat milk, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 29, 2012 (year ago)
- Whole milk outpaces skim/low-fat category, reflecting organic preference
- Manufacturer sales of whole milk
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- Figure 34: MULO sales of whole milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Brand loyalty strong in private label whole milk
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- Figure 35: Key purchase measures for the top brands of whole milk, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago)
- Flavored milk sales driven by BFY options, TruMoo leads the charge
- Manufacturer sales of flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk
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- Figure 36: MULO sales of flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- TruMoo sees increases in purchase volume
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- Figure 37: Key purchase measures for the top brands of flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 29, 2012 (year ago)
Brand Share – Non-dairy Milk
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- Key points
- Plant-based milk products become segment leaders
- Soy milk fails to impress as almond and coconut milk flourishes
- Brand name is clear choice over private label in non-dairy milk segment
- Nestlé’s Nesquik sees little growth in non-dairy milk segment
- Manufacturer sales of other milk
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- Figure 38: MULO sales of other* milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Brand loyalty strong for name brand products in non-dairy milk
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- Figure 39: Key purchase measures for the top brands of milk substitutes/soy milk/kefir, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 29, 2012 (year ago)
Brand Share – Creamer and Cream
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- Key points
- Nestlé dominates the creamers category, new flavors drive sales
- Manufacturer sales of coffee creamer
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- Figure 40: MULO sales of coffee creamer, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Brand loyalty supports branded coffee creamer sales
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- Figure 41: Key purchase measures for the top brands of coffee creamer, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 29, 2012 (year ago)
- Private label controls cream segment, Dean Foods suffers big losses
- Manufacturer sales of cream
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- Figure 42: MULO sales of dairy cream/half & half, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Brand loyalty strong in private label dairy cream
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- Figure 43: Key purchase measures for the top brands of dairy cream/half & half, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 29, 2013 (current) and Dec. 29, 2012 (year ago)
Innovations and Innovators
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- Protein power
- Innovative flavors
- Outside-the-jug packaging
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- The MilkPEP replaces “Got Milk?” slogan
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- Figure 44: The Milk Processor Education Program “Milk Life” print ad, February 2014
- Figure 45: Milk, Make the most of your morning with milk. Milk Life., March 2014
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- Figure 46: Got Chocolate Milk?, Zach Parise - Drive, February 2014
- Silk Almondmilk “helps you bloom”
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- Figure 47: Silk, Need a Reason to Try Silk?, December 2013
- Figure 48: Silk, The Taste Might Surprise You, December 2013
- Creamer sees success with branded partnerships
- Baileys Creamers
- Dunkin’ Donuts
- Girl Scouts
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- Figure 49: Coffee-mate, Girl Scouts Commercial, January 2014
Social Media – Milk, Creamers, and Non-dairy Milk
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- Key points
- Market overview
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 50: key social media metrics, March 2014
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 51: Brand usage and awareness for selected milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, February 2014
- Interactions with milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands
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- Figure 52: Interaction with selected milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, February 2014
- Leading online campaigns
- Focusing on healthy living
- Marketing to families
- What we think
- Online conversations
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- Figure 53: Online mentions of select milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, by month, March 1, 2013-Feb. 28, 2014
- Where are people talking about milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands?
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- Figure 54: Online mentions of select milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, by page, March 1, 2013-Feb. 28, 2014
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 55: Mentions by topic of conversations, milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, March 1, 2013-Feb. 28, 2014
Purchasing Habits for Dairy Milk, Non-dairy Milk, Cream, and Creamer
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- Key points
- Skim milk, almond milk, half & half, flavored creamer dominate segments
- Young men consume largest variety of milks, creams/creamers
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- Figure 56: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by gender and age, February 2014
- Consumption, variety of category purchases decrease with age
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- Figure 57: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Buying more, by generations, February 2014
- Affluent households purchase most milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk
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- Figure 58: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by household income, February 2014
- Households with children more likely to purchase milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk products
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- Figure 59: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by presence of children in household, February 2014
- Northeastern, West regions purchase largest variety of milk, cream/creamer products
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- Figure 60: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by region, February 2014
- Southern households consume most non-dairy creamers
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- Figure 61: Household consumption of non-dairy cream substitutes, by region, November 2012-December 2013
- Other races are highest purchasers of milk, cream/creamer
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- Figure 62: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2014
- Consumers drinking both non-dairy and dairy products
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- Figure 63: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by repertoire of dairy milk products, February 2014
- Figure 64: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by repertoire of non-dairy milk products, February 2014
- Household consumption of milk decreasing
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- Figure 65: Household volume consumption of milk, November 2008-December 2013
Attributes Affecting Purchases of Dairy Milk, Non-dairy Milk, Cream, and Creamer
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- Key points
- Packaging, retail shopping attributes, and product attributes fluctuate by generation
- Packaging interest peaks with Millennials
- Consumers prefer refrigerated dairy and non-dairy beverages
- Manufacturers with refrigerated non-dairy products increase exposure with consumers
- Older consumers buying private label, least interested in flavored offerings
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- Figure 66: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by generations, February 2014
- Households with children do not largely affect purchasing attributes
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- Figure 67: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by presence of children in household, February 2014
- Figure 68: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by repertoire of dairy milk products, February 2014
Attitudes toward Dairy and Non-dairy Beverages
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- Key points
- Dairy milk attitudes
- Protein, nutrient claims have yet to overcome high calorie counts
- Interest in growth-hormone-free dairy beverages continues
- Consumers not convinced of raw milk safety
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- Figure 69: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by gender and age, February 2014
- Attributes of both dairy and non-dairy milk
- GMOs still in the minds of consumers
- Young men lead in agreement with health attributes toward dairy and non-dairy milk
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by gender and age, February 2014
- Non-dairy milk attributes
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- Figure 71: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by gender and age, February 2014
Reasons for Purchasing Other/Non-dairy Milk and/or Creamer
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- Key points
- Other, non-dairy milk purchases influenced by taste, health benefits
- Taste preference is leading reason behind other/non-dairy milk/creamer purchases
- Younger consumers drawn to products’ vitamin, mineral contents
- Older consumers drink for lower calories, while young consumers drink for weight loss
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- Figure 72: Reasons for purchasing other/non-dairy milk and/or creamer, by gender and age, February 2014
Reasons for Purchasing Less Dairy and/or Non-dairy Milk, Cream, and/or Creamer
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- Key points
- Milk prices, weight loss top concerns for milk purchases
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- Figure 73: Reasons for purchasing less dairy and/or non-dairy milk, cream, and/or creamer, by gender and age, February 2014
- Significantly more consumers are drinking less/no milk
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- Figure 74: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Buying less/none, by generations, February 2014
- Households without children more likely to be purchasing less/no dairy/non-dairy products
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- Figure 75: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Buying less/none, by presence of children in household, February 2014
Occasions and Location for Consuming Dairy and/or Non-dairy Milk, Cream, and/or Creamer
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- Key points
- Milk most popular as an accompaniment, on-the-go concept still new
- Milk most consumed as an accompaniment
- Milk as a meal not yet popular with consumers
- On-the-go dairy and non-dairy offerings yet to fully appeal to consumers
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- Figure 76: Occasions and locations for drinking, February 2014
- Young men drinking dairy/non-dairy products at most occasions, locations
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- Figure 77: Occasions and locations for drinking – Any adult, by gender and age, February 2014
- Figure 78: Occasions and locations for drinking – Any adult, by generations, February 2014
- Consumption frequency increases with the number of milk types purchased
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- Figure 79: Occasions and locations for drinking – Any adult, by repertoire of dairy milk products, February 2014
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- Figure 80: Occasions and locations for drinking – Any adult, by repertoire of non-dairy milk products, February 2014
Attitudes and Behavior toward Flavored Dairy and Non-dairy Milk and Cream/Creamer
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- Key points
- Interest in flavored milk attributes decreases with consumers’ age
- Consumer attitudes support sophisticated flavors, natural sweetener innovation
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- Figure 81: Attitudes and behaviors toward flavored dairy and non-dairy milk and cream/creamer – Any agree, by generations, February 2014
- Households with children hold higher opinion of flavored products
- Sophisticated dairy milk flavors have potential to appeal to households with and without children
- Consumers show interest in stevia-sweetened flavored milk, healthy soft drink alternative
- Competition comes in the form of flavored milk powders, liquids
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- Figure 82: Attitudes and behaviors toward flavored dairy and non-dairy milk and cream/creamer – Any agree, by presence of children in household, February 2014
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer
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- Figure 83: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer, February 2014
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- Figure 84: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by generations, February 2014
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- Figure 85: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by region, February 2014
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- Figure 86: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamers – Any purchase, by region, February 2014
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- Figure 87: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Buying more, by gender, February 2014
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- Figure 88: Purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Buying more, by presence of children in household, February 2014
- Attributes affecting purchases of dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer
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- Figure 89: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by gender and age, February 2014
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- Figure 90: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by repertoire of dairy milk products, February 2014
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- Figure 91: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by repertoire of non-dairy milk products, February 2014
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- Figure 92: Dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer purchasing attributes, by purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Any purchase, February 2014
- Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy beverages
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- Figure 93: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by generations, February 2014
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- Figure 94: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by presence of children in household, February 2014
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- Figure 95: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by gender and age, February 2014
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- Figure 96: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by repertoire of dairy milk products, February 2014
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- Figure 97: Attitudes toward dairy and non-dairy products, by repertoire of non-dairy milk products, February 2014
- Reasons for purchasing other/non-dairy milk and/or creamer
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- Figure 98: Reasons for purchasing other/non-dairy milk and/or creamer, by purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Any purchase, February 2014
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- Figure 99: Reasons for purchasing other/non-dairy milk and/or creamer, by purchasing habits for dairy milk, non-dairy milk, cream, and creamer – Any purchase, February 2014
- Occasions and locations for consuming dairy and/or non-dairy milk, cream, and/or creamer
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- Figure 100: Occasions and locations for drinking – Any adult, by presence of children in household, February 2014
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- Figure 101: Occasions and locations for drinking – Any adult, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2014
- Attitudes and behavior toward flavored dairy and non-dairy milk and cream/creamer
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- Figure 102: Attitudes and behaviors toward flavored dairy and non-dairy milk and cream/creamer, February 2014
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- Figure 103: Attitudes and behaviors toward flavored dairy and non-dairy milk and cream/creamer – Any agree, by gender and age, February 2014
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- Figure 104: Attitudes and behaviors toward flavored dairy and non-dairy milk and cream/creamer – Any agree, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2014
- Experian Marketing Services: Fall adult 2013
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- Figure 105: Household consumption of non-dairy cream substitutes, by type, by household income, November 2012-December 2013
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- Figure 106: Household consumption of non-dairy cream substitutes, by flavor, by region, November 2012-December 2013
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- Figure 107: Household consumption of non-dairy cream substitutes, by brand, by region, November 2012-December 2013
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- Figure 108: Household consumption of milk flavorings, by brand, by region, November 2012-December 2013
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- Figure 109: Household consumption of non-dairy cream substitutes, by type, by region, November 2012-December 2013
Appendix – Social Media – Milk, Creamers, and Non-dairy Milk
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 110: Brand usage or awareness, February 2014
- Figure 111: Silk usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 112: Horizon Organic usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 113: Organic Valley usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 114: Blue Diamond Almond Breeze usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 115: Kemps usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 116: International Delight usage or awareness, by demographics, February 2014
- Interactions with milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands
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- Figure 117: Activities done, February 2014
- Figure 118: Silk – Activities Done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 119: Silk – Activities Done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 120: Silk – Activities Done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 121: Silk – Activities Done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 122: Horizon Organic – Activities Done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 123: Horizon Organic – Activities Done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 124: Horizon Organic – Activities Done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 125: Horizon Organic – Activities Done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 126: Organic Valley – Activities Done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 127: Organic Valley – Activities Done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 128: Organic Valley – Activities Done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 129: Organic Valley – Activities Done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 130: Blue Diamond Almond Breeze – Activities Done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 131: Blue Diamond Almond Breeze – Activities Done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 132: Blue Diamond Almond Breeze – Activities Done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 133: Blue Diamond Almond Breeze – Activities Done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 134: Kemps – Activities Done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 135: Kemps – Activities Done – I follow/like the brand on social media because…., by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 136: Kemps – Activities Done – none of the above, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 137: International Delight – Activities Done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 138: International Delight – Activities Done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 139: International Delight – Activities Done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, February 2014
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- Figure 140: International Delight – Activities Done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, February 2014
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 141: Social media metrics – Silk, March 2014
- Figure 142: Social media metrics – Blue Diamond Almond Breeze, March 2014
- Figure 143: Social media metrics – Horizon Organic, March 2014
- Figure 144: Social media metrics – International Delight, March 2014
- Figure 145: Social media metrics – Organic Valley, March 2014
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- Figure 146: Social media metrics – Kemps, March 2014
- Online conversations
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- Figure 147: Online mentions of select milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, by month, March 1, 2013-Feb. 28, 2014
- Figure 148: Online mentions of select milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, by page, March 1, 2013-Feb. 28, 2014
- Figure 149: Mentions by topic of conversations, milk, creamer, and non-dairy milk brands, March 1, 2013-Feb. 28, 2014
Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix – Trade Associations
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