Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Fan chart forecast of total US grocery retail sales, at current prices, 2009-18
- Market factors
- Growing Hispanic population will impact market for groceries
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- Figure 2: US Hispanic population, 2009-19
- The impact of online and mobile shopping on groceries
- Addressing the needs for special diets
- The consumer
- Most shop at supermarkets when buying groceries
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- Figure 3: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, November 2013
- High interest in online grocery shopping, yet low incidence
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- Figure 4: Attitudes toward grocery shopping online, November 2013
- Most choose grocery retailers based on price
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- Figure 5: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers (in-store or online shoppers), November 2013
- Figure 6: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers (in-store shoppers), November 2013
- Most grocery shoppers use coupons and look for sale items
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- Figure 7: Grocery shopping behavior, November 2013
- Grocery shoppers desire personalized promotions and coupons
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- Figure 8: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, November 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Who competes in the grocery market?
- The issues
- The implications
- Is online shopping making headway in grocery shopping?
- The issues
- The implications
- What do consumers think would make grocery shopping better?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Make it Mine
- Trend: Locavore
- Mintel Futures: Human
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Positive outlook for grocery market
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- Figure 9: Total MULO sales and forecast of groceries at current prices, 2009-18
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- Figure 10: Total MULO sales and forecast of groceries at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-18
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: Fan chart forecast of total US grocery retail sales, at current prices, 2009-18
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Growing Hispanic population will impact grocery market
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- Figure 12: Hispanic population by age, 2009-19
- Impact of online and mobile shopping
- Addressing the needs of special diets
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- Figure 13: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-Oct. 28, 2013
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 14: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Local food movement
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Competition from other retail channels
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- Figure 15: Distribution of expenditures on food for off-premise consumption, by channel, 2008-12
- Supermarkets see highest sales, but other MULO gaining traction
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- Figure 16: MULO sales and forecast of groceries, by retail channel, at current prices, 2009-18
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of groceries, by retail channel, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
- Food and drink dominate grocery sales
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- Figure 18: MULO sales and forecast of groceries, by product segment, at current prices, 2009-13
Segment Performance – Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets to experience low annual growth
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- Figure 19: Supermarket sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2009-18
- Food and drink comprises bulk of supermarket sales
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- Figure 20: Supermarket sales of groceries, by segment, at current prices, 2009-13
Segment Performance – Drug Stores
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- Key points
- Drug stores’ sales of groceries expected to rise
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- Figure 21: Drug store sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2009-18
- HBC dominates drug store sales
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- Figure 22: Drug store sales of groceries, by segment, at current prices, 2009-13
Segment Performance – Other MULO
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- Key points
- Other MULO represents fastest-growing grocery sector
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- Figure 23: Sales and forecast of groceries through other MULO channels, at current prices, 2009-18
- Food and drink dominate other MULO sales, but higher share for household
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- Figure 24: Sales of groceries through other MULO channels, by segment, at current prices, 2009-13
Retailer Overview
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- Traditional supermarkets
- Ahold USA
- Delhaize
- Giant Eagle
- Kroger
- Publix Super Markets
- Safeway
- Supervalu
- Trader Joe’s
- Wegmans
- Whole Foods Market
- Issues and opportunities for traditional supermarkets
- Mass merchandisers
- Walmart
- Target
- Meijer
- Issues and opportunities for mass merchandisers
- Warehouse clubs
- BJ’s Wholesale Club
- Costco
- Sam’s Club
- Issues and opportunities for warehouse clubs
- Drug stores
- CVS
- Duane Reade
- Rite Aid
- Walgreens
- Issues and opportunities for drug stores
- Dollar stores and discount food stores
- Dollar General
- Dollar Tree
- Family Dollar
- ALDI
- Bottom Dollar
- Food 4 Less
- Sav-A-lot
- Issues and opportunities for dollar stores and discount food stores
- Online retailers
- Amazon.com
- FreshDirect.com
- Peapod.com
- Issues and opportunities for online retailers
Innovations and Innovators
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- Instacart brings personal element to online shopping
- Amazon expands into grocery
- Subscription-based food services offer new way of shopping
- Good Eggs offers local products in select markets
- Peapod’s shoppable billboard
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- Figure 25: Peapod’s shoppable billboard truck, July 2013
- Safeway opens on-site grocery store at Phoenix International Raceway
Marketing Strategies
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- Consumer use of coupons and private label
- Coupons/discounting
- Private label
- Theme: Personalized offers
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- Figure 26: Kroger direct mail piece, bonus savings for you, November 2013
- Theme: Local appeal
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- Figure 27: Whole Foods email ad, passport fair, January 2014
- Figure 28: Jewel-Osco “We’re not going anywhere,” television ad, December 2013
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- Figure 29: Safeway direct mail piece, more reasons to love, November 2013
- Theme: Encourage trial
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- Figure 30: Peapod direct mail piece, $20 off first order, December 2013
- Figure 31: Walmart Neighborhood market direct mail piece, see for yourself, October 2013
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- Figure 32: Amazon.com email ad, new year, new you, January 2014
Social Media – Grocery Retailing
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- Key points
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 33: Key social media metrics, January 2014
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 34: Brand usage and awareness for selected grocery store retailers, November 2013
- Interactions with grocery store retailers
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- Figure 35: Interactions with selected grocery retailers, November 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 36: Online mentions from the selected grocery retailers, by day, July 21, 2013-Jan. 20, 2014
- Where are people talking about grocery retailers?
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- Figure 37: Online mentions from the selected grocery retailers, by page type, July 21, 2013-Jan. 20, 2014
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 38: Topics of online conversation among the selected grocery retailers, July 21, 2013-Jan. 20, 2014
- Analysis by brand
- Kroger
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- Figure 39: Key social media metrics – Kroger, January 2014
- Publix Super Markets
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- Figure 40: Social media metrics – Publix, January 2014
- Whole Foods Market
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- Figure 41: Social media metrics – Whole Foods, January 2014
- Safeway
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- Figure 42: Social media metrics – Safeway, January 2014
- Trader Joe’s
- Albertsons
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- Figure 43: Social media metrics – Albertsons, January 2014
Grocery Shopping Frequency
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- Key points
- Most grocery shoppers shop weekly
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- Figure 44: Grocery shopping frequency, November 2013
- Young men most frequent shoppers
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- Figure 45: Grocery shopping frequency, by gender and age, November 2013
- Higher-income consumers shop for groceries most often
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- Figure 46: Grocery shopping frequency, by household income, November 2013
Retailers Shopped for Groceries
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- Key points
- Most shop at supermarkets when buying groceries
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- Figure 47: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, November 2013
- Older women prefer supermarkets, young adults shop at Walmart
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- Figure 48: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by gender and age, November 2013
- Lower-income consumers shop for groceries at Walmart, dollar stores
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- Figure 49: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by household income, November 2013
Changes in Grocery Spending
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- Key points
- Most shoppers spending the same amount on groceries compared to year ago
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- Figure 50: Changes in grocery spending, by store/store type, November 2013
- 18-34-year-old men spending more at Walmart, dollar stores
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- Figure 51: Spending more on groceries, by store/store type, by gender and age, November 2013
- Lowest- and highest-income households spending more at Trader Joe’s
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- Figure 52: Spending more on groceries, by store/store type, by household income, November 2013
Attitudes toward Online Grocery Shopping
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- Key points
- High interest in online grocery shopping, yet low incidence
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward grocery shopping online, November 2013
- Younger men most likely to shop online for groceries
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- Figure 54: Attitudes toward grocery shopping online, by gender and age, November 2013
- Higher-income shoppers more likely to buy groceries online
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- Figure 55: Attitudes toward grocery shopping online, by household income, November 2013
Reasons for Choosing Grocery Retailers
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- Key points
- Most choose grocery retailer based on price
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- Figure 56: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, November 2013
- Older men choose retailers based on price, young men seek healthy food
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- Figure 57: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by gender and age, November 2013
- Prices at retailers most important to lower-income shoppers
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- Figure 58: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by household income, November 2013
Grocery Shopping Behavior
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- Key points
- Most grocery shoppers use coupons and look for sale items
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- Figure 59: Grocery shopping behavior, November 2013
- Older shoppers likely to shop with a list and stick to it, young men compare prices via app
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- Figure 60: Grocery shopping behavior, by gender and age, November 2013
- High-income shoppers use coupons, look for sale items
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- Figure 61: Grocery shopping behavior, by household income, November 2013
Innovations/Improvements Desired in Grocery Shopping
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- Key points
- Grocery shoppers desire personalized promotions and coupons
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- Figure 62: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, November 2013
- Younger men and women would like free home delivery of groceries
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- Figure 63: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by gender and age, November 2013
- Shoppers of all income levels would like to redeem coupons via smartphone
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- Figure 64: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by household income, November 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics frequent grocery shoppers
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- Figure 65: Grocery shopping frequency, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Whites favor supermarkets while Hispanics and Blacks shop at Walmart
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- Figure 66: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Hispanics’ spending suggests convenience
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- Figure 67: Spending more on groceries, by store/store type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Hispanics most interested in shopping for groceries online
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- Figure 68: Attitudes toward grocery shopping online, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Whites and Blacks choose grocery retailers based on price
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- Figure 69: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Whites most price sensitive
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- Figure 70: Grocery shopping behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Whites seek customized promotions
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- Figure 71: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Grocery shopping frequency
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- Figure 72: Grocery shopping frequency, by marital status, November 2013
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- Figure 73: Grocery shopping frequency, by household size, November 2013
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- Figure 74: Grocery shopping frequency, by employment, November 2013
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- Figure 75: Grocery shopping frequency, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 76: Grocery shopping frequency, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2013
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- Figure 77: Grocery shopping frequency, by interest in online shopping, November 2013
- Retailers shopped for groceries
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- Figure 78: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by marital status, November 2013
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- Figure 79: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by household size, November 2013
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- Figure 80: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by employment, November 2013
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- Figure 81: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 82: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2013
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- Figure 83: Types of retailers shopped for groceries most often, by interest in online shopping, November 2013
- Changes in grocery spending
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- Figure 84: Spending more on groceries, by marital status, November 2013
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- Figure 85: Spending more on groceries, by household size, November 2013
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- Figure 86: Spending more on groceries, by employment, November 2013
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- Figure 87: Spending more on groceries, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 88: Spending more on groceries, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2013
- Reasons for choosing grocery retailers
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- Figure 89: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by marital status, November 2013
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- Figure 90: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by household size, November 2013
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- Figure 91: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by employment, November 2013
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- Figure 92: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 93: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2013
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- Figure 94: Reasons for choosing grocery retailers, by interest in online shopping, November 2013
- Grocery shopping behavior
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- Figure 95: Grocery shopping behavior, by marital status, November 2013
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- Figure 96: Grocery shopping behavior, by household size, November 2013
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- Figure 97: Grocery shopping behavior, by employment, November 2013
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- Figure 98: Grocery shopping behavior, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 99: Grocery shopping behavior, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2013
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- Figure 100: Grocery shopping behavior, by interest in online shopping, November 2013
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- Figure 101: Influence of advertising when shopping, by gender, May 2012-June 2013
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- Figure 102: Influence of advertising when shopping, by age, May 2012-June 2013
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- Figure 103: Influence of advertising when shopping, by household income, May 2012-June 2013
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- Figure 104: Influence of advertising when shopping, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012-June 2013
- Innovations/Improvements desired
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- Figure 105: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by marital status, November 2013
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- Figure 106: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by household size, November 2013
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- Figure 107: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 108: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2013
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- Figure 109: Innovations/Improvements desired when grocery shopping, by interest in online shopping, November°2013
Appendix – Social Media – Grocery Retailing
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 110: Brand usage or awareness, November 2013
- Figure 111: Publix usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 112: Kroger usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 113: Albertsons usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 114: Safeway usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 115: Whole Foods usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 116: Trader Joe’s usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Activities done
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- Figure 117: Activities done, November 2013
- Figure 118: Publix – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 119: Publix – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 120: Publix – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 121: Publix – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 122: Kroger – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 123: Kroger – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 124: Kroger – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 125: Kroger – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 126: Albertsons – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 127: Albertsons – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 128: Albertsons – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 129: Safeway – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 130: Safeway – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 131: Safeway – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 132: Safeway – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 133: Whole Foods – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 134: Whole Foods – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 135: Whole Foods – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 136: Whole Foods – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to…., by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 137: Trader Joe’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media…, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 138: Trader Joe’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to…, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 139: Trader Joe’s – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because…., by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 140: Trader Joe’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to…., by demographics, November 2013
- Online discussion
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- Figure 141: Online mentions from the selected grocery retailers, by day, July 21, 2013-Jan. 20, 2014
- Figure 142: Online mentions from the selected grocery retailers, by page type, July 21, 2013-Jan. 20, 2014
- Figure 143: Topics of online conversation among the selected grocery retailers, July 21, 2013-Jan. 20, 2014
Appendix – Trade Associations
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