Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total U.S unit sales of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles and forecast of market, 2008-18
- Market factors
- New CAFE standards encourage sale of hybrids and plug-in electrics
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- Figure 2: Projections of new and existing light vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, 2012-40
- Regulations in California have massive effect on plug-in hybrid and electric car sales
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- Figure 3: California zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales, as mandated by the 2012 amendments to the California Zero-Emission Vehicle Regulation
- Historically high fuel prices help shift consumer purchasing preferences toward hybrids and electrics
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- Figure 4: All grades/all formulations retail gasoline prices, dollars per gallon, 1993-2013
- Key players
- Toyota dominates the hybrid and electric market
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- Figure 5: Largest manufacturers in the hybrid and electric segment, by market share, November 2013-year to date
- The consumer
- Approximately 4% of household vehicles are hybrids or alternative powered
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- Figure 6: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative power, November 2013
- Hybrids most popular alternative vehicle considered by vehicle purchasers
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- Figure 7: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, Millennials versus Baby Boomers, November 2013
- Top reasons for not buying a hybrid or plug-in electric include expense and recharging options
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- Figure 8: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, November 2013
- Top reasons for purchasing a hybrid or plug-in electric include saving money on fuel
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- Figure 9: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle only, November 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How can hybrid and electric vehicle manufacturers address affordability concerns?
- The issues
- The implications
- How can hybrid and electric vehicle manufacturers address performance and range concerns?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Prove It
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- Figure 10: Lincoln “That’s Me” print and web advertising, October 2013
- Trend: Green and Lean
- Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Hybrid and plug-in electrics to top 1 million annual sales by 2017
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- Figure 11: Total US unit sales of total hybrid and plug-in electric vehicle sales, 2008-18
- Hybrids
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- Figure 12: Total US unit sales of total hybrid vehicle sales, 2008-18
- Plug-in electrics
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- Figure 13: Total US unit sales of total plug-in electric vehicle sales, 2008-18
- Fan chart forecasts
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- Figure 14: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast for hybrids and plug-in electrics, 2008-18
- Figure 15: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast for hybrids, 2008-18
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- Figure 16: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast for plug-in electrics, 2008-18
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- New fuel economy standards will encourage sale of hybrids and plug-in electrics
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- Figure 17: Projections of new and existing light vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, 2012-40
- California regulations help spur or curtail plug-in electrics
- High fuel prices shift consumer purchasing preferences
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- Figure 18: All grades all formulations retail gasoline prices, dollars per gallon, 1993-2013
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- Figure 19: Gasoline regular grade retail price including taxes US average dollars per gallon, 2012-14 (forecast)
- Labor force participation, real disposable income, and unemployment critical to hybrid and electric car sales
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- Figure 20: Key macroeconomic indicators; labor force, unemployment and DPI, (2005 chain-weighted dollars), 2011-40
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- Figure 21: Civilian labor force participation rates by age, 1992, 2002, 2012, and projected 2022
- American drivers continue to drive fewer miles, weakening demand
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- Figure 22: Vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver, 1970-2040
- Government excise tax credits and state rebates/credits help spur demand for plug-in electrics
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- Figure 23: State hybrid and electric vehicle incentives, 2013 (Part 1: AL-DC)
- Figure 24: State hybrid and electric vehicle incentives, 2013 (Part 2: FL-LA)
- Figure 25: State hybrid and electric vehicle incentives, 2013 (Part 3: ME-NY)
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- Figure 26: State hybrid and electric vehicle incentives, 2013 (Part 4: NC-TX)
- Figure 27: State hybrid and electric vehicle incentives, 2013 (Part 5: UT-WA)
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Hybrids expected to dominate alternative energy transportation, but competition exist in diesels, natural gas, and fuel cells
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- Figure 28: Sales of light duty vehicles using nongasoline technologies by type, 2011, 2025, and 2040
- Diesels
- Natural gas
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- Figure 29: Natural gas consumption in the transportation sector, 2010-40
- Hydrogen fuel cells
- Fuel efficient nonhybrid gasoline vehicles
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- Figure 30: Most fuel-efficient nonhybrid gasoline powered vehicles
Market Segmentation
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- Hybrid versus Plug-in Electric
- Key points
- Hybrid dominates over plug-in electric
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- Figure 31: Share of total US unit sales of vehicles, by engine type, 2008-18
- Car type
- Key points
- Compact and midsized passenger cars continue to dominate hybrid and electric space
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- Figure 32: US unit sales of hybrid vehicles, by segment, YTD Nov 2012-YTD Nov 2013
- Figure 33: US unit sales of hybrid midsize cars, 2008-13
- Luxury hybrid and plug-in electric sales outpace mainstream units
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- Figure 34: US unit sales of hybrids/plug-in vehicles, mainstream versus luxury segments, 2008-13
Leading Manufacturers
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- Key points
- Despite increased competition, Toyota dominates the hybrid and electric market
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- Figure 35: Largest hybrid and electric manufacturers, by market share, November 2013-year to date
- A note on the manufacturer and dealers relationship
- Manufacturer profiles
- Toyota Motor Sales USA, Inc.
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- Figure 36: Toyota hybrid and electric market share and unit sales, by model, 2012-13
- Ford Motor Company
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- Figure 37: Ford hybrid and electric market share and unit sales, by model 2012-13
- General Motors Company
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- Figure 38: General Motors hybrid and electric market share and unit sales, by model, 2012-13
- Nissan North America Inc.
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- Figure 39: Nissan hybrid and electric market share and unit sales, by model, 2012-13
- Hyundai Motor America
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- Figure 40: Hyundai hybrid and electric market share and unit sales, by model, 2012-13
- American Honda Motor Co. Inc.
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- Figure 41: Honda hybrid and electric market share and unit sales, by model, 2012-13
- Tesla Motors, Inc.
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- Figure 42: Tesla hybrid and electric market share and unit sales, by model, 2012-13
Innovations and Innovators
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- Technical advancement drives performance and so luxury sales
- 2014 mainstream hybrid introductions from Honda, Nissan, and Subaru
- 2014 mainstream family vehicle plug-in introductions
- 2014 high-performance plug-in hybrid introductions
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Strategy: attractive lease deals salient marketing position for hybrids and plug-in electrics
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- Figure 43: Special lease terms for select plug-in hybrids and all-electrics, January 2014
- Strategy: lower prices attract mainstream consumers
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- Figure 44: Price changes on popular plug-in electrics, from 2011-14 model year
- Strategy: distinguish new hybrids and plug-in electrics with sub-branding
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- Figure 45: Toyota Prius family, 2013
- Figure 46: Toyota Prius Family “Hum” TV Spot, October 2012
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- Figure 47: BMW i3 TV Spot, October 2013
- Strategy: Tesla’s unique no-hassle, haggle-free, retail distribution is a breath of fresh air for consumers
- Strategy: adding plug-in electrics to certified preowned programs
Social Media – Hybrid and Electric Cars
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- Key points
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 48: Key performance indicators, December 2013
- Market overview
- Brand ownership and awareness
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- Figure 49: Brand ownership and awareness: hybrid and electric car brands, October 2013
- Interaction with brands
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- Figure 50: Interaction with hybrid and electric car brands, October 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 51: Toyota Prius positive words, December 9, 2012-December 8, 2013
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- Figure 52: Online mentions, selected hybrid and electric car brands, by week, December 9, 2012-December 8, 2013
- Where are people talking about hybrid and electric car brands?
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- Figure 53: Mentions by page type, selected hybrid and electric car brands, December 9, 2012-December 8, 2013
- What are people talking about online?
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- Figure 54: Mentions by type of conversation, selected hybrid and electric car brands, December 9, 2012-December 8, 2013
- Brand analysis
- Toyota Prius
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- Figure 55: Toyota Prius key social media indicators, November 2013
- Tesla
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- Figure 56: Tesla key social media indicators, December 2013
- Nissan LEAF
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- Figure 57: Nissan LEAF key social media indicators, December 2013
- Ford C-Max
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- Figure 58: Ford C-max key social media indicators, December 2013
- Chevrolet Volt
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- Figure 59: Chevrolet Volt key social media indicators, December 2013
- Volkswagen Jetta TDI
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- Figure 60: Volkswagen Jetta TDI key social media indicators, December 2013
Vehicles Owned by Household, by Vehicle Body Style
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- Key points
- Approximately 4% of household vehicles are hybrids or alternative powered
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- Figure 61: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, November 2013
- Little difference in hybrid/alternative vehicle ownership across generational groups
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- Figure 62: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, by generations, November 2013
- Hybrid/alternative powered vehicles far more likely to be owned by households earning $100K+
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- Figure 63: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, by household income, November 2013
- Hybrid/alternative powered vehicles more popular in the West and South
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- Figure 64: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, by region, November 2013
- Millennial parents more likely to own a hybrid/alternative powered vehicle
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- Figure 65: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, by Millennial versus non-Millennial parent, November 2013
- Multiple vehicle owners more likely to own hybrid/alternative powered vehicle
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- Figure 66: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, by single versus multiple car ownership, November 2013
- Heavier drivers more likely to own a hybrid/alternative powered vehicle
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- Figure 67: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, by mileage driven, November 2013
- Smartphone/tablet owners more likely to own a hybrid/alternative powered vehicle
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- Figure 68: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style and hybrid/alternative powertrain, by smartphone and tablet ownership, November 2013
Intent of Purchasing a Vehicle in the Next Three Years
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- Key points
- More than half of households expect to purchase a car in the next three years
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- Figure 69: Intent of purchasing a vehicle in the next three years, November 2013
- Millennials most likely to purchase a vehicle in the next three years
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- Figure 70: Intent of purchasing a vehicle in the next three years, by generations, November 2013
- Heavy drivers more likely to expect to buy in the next three years
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- Figure 71: Intent of purchasing a vehicle in the next three years, by mileage driven, November 2013
- Among those expecting to purchase a vehicle in the next three years, about 44% expect to purchase within the next year
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- Figure 72: When the next vehicle will be purchased, November 2013
- Heavy drivers more likely to plan to purchase within the next year
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- Figure 73: When the next vehicle will be purchased, November 2013
- Millennials are far more likely to purchase in the next year
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- Figure 74: When next vehicle will be purchased, by generations, November 2013
Intent on Purchasing an Alternative Fuel Vehicle, by Type
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- Key points
- Hybrids most popular alternative vehicle considered by vehicle purchasers
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- Figure 75: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, November 2013
- Millennials far and away the most interested in alternative fuels
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- Figure 76: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, by generations, November 2013
- Males 18-34 most enthusiastic for hybrids and electrics
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- Figure 77: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, by gender and age, November 2013
- Households income has mixed correlation to hybrid or electric intentions
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- Figure 78: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, by household income, November 2013
- Less enthusiasm for hybrids and electrics in the Midwest
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- Figure 79: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, by region, November 2013
- Heavy drivers more interested in hybrid and plug-in electrics
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- Figure 80: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, by mileage driven, November 2013
Alternative Fuel Intenders Future Purchase Intent by New, Used, or CPO
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- Key points
- Those considering alternatively powered vehicles more interested in compact cars
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- Figure 81: Vehicle body style considered for purchase in the next three years, all versus those likely to buy an alternatively powered vehicle, November 2013
- Women more interested in compact crossovers
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- Figure 82: Vehicle body style considered for purchase in the next three years, by those likely to buy an alternatively powered vehicle, by gender, November 2013
- Millennials, Generation X, show stronger demand for SUVs and pickup trucks
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- Figure 83: Vehicle body style considered for purchase in the next three years, by those likely to buy an alternatively powered vehicle, by generations, November 2013
- HEV intenders with children more interested in SUVs and crossovers
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- Figure 84: Vehicle body style considered for purchase in the next three years, by those likely to buy an alternatively powered vehicle, by presence of children in household, November 2013
Alternative Fuel Intenders Future Purchase Intent by New, Used, or CPO
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- Key points
- Those considering alternative powered vehicles are far more likely to purchase their next car new
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- Figure 85: Alternative fuel intenders future purchase intent, by new, used, or CPO, November 2013
- Men are far more likely to consider a new car at next purchase
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- Figure 86: Alternative fuel intenders future purchase intent, by new, used, or CPO, by gender, November 2013
- Millennials more certain of purchasing new vehicle
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- Figure 87: Alternative fuel intenders future purchase intent, by new, used, or CPO, by generations, November 2013
Price Sensitivity Analysis
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- Methodology
- Despite increased popularity, many popular hybrid models still cost more than the Optimal Price Point
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- Figure 88: Bestselling hybrid vehicles, by price analysis
- Figure 89: Hybrid automobiles optimal price, November 2013
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- Figure 90: Hybrid automobiles threshold prices, November 2013
- Plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles still massively overpriced for the average consumer
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- Figure 91: Bestselling plug-in electric vehicles, by price analysis
- Figure 92: Plug-in hybrid and electric automobiles optimal price, November 2013
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- Figure 93: Plug-in hybrid and electric automobiles threshold prices, November 2013
- Diesels show greatest congruency to Optimal Price Point
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- Figure 94: Bestselling diesel vehicles, by price analysis
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- Figure 95: Diesel automobiles optimal price, November 2013
- Figure 96: Diesel automobiles threshold prices, November 2013
Reasons for Not Wanting a Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, or Electric Vehicle
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- Key points
- Top reasons for not buying a hybrid or plug-in electric include expense and refueling/recharging options
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- Figure 97: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle only, November 2013
- Women more likely to not have the option of plugging in vehicle
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- Figure 98: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle only, by gender, November 2013
- Baby Boomers more skeptical about the benefits of hybrid and plug-in electrics
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- Figure 99: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle only, by generations, November 2013
- Light drivers are more concerned with the cost of hybrids and plug-ins
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- Figure 100: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle only, by mileage driven, November 2013
Reasons for Wanting a Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, or All-Electric Vehicle
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- Key points
- Saving money on fuel: top reason for buying
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- Figure 101: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, November 2013
- Saving money on fuel more important to those earning less
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- Figure 102: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by household income, November 2013
- Households with children far more interested in carpooling lane waiver
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- Figure 103: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by presence of children in household, November 2013
- Top reasons for wanting a hybrid or plug-in electric among heavy drivers include wanting a carpooling lane waiver
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- Figure 104: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by mileage driven, November 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Overall vehicle ownership, driving, and intent to buy
- Asians/Pacific Islanders show higher than average hybrid/alternative powered vehicle ownership
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- Figure 105: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Blacks more likely to have purchased last vehicle used or certified preowned
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- Figure 106: Vehicle last purchased by new, used, or CPO, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- More heavy drivers among Blacks and Hispanics
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- Figure 107: Miles personally driven annually, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Hispanics significantly more likely to purchase another vehicle in the next three years
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- Figure 108: Intent of purchasing a vehicle in the next three years, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Hispanics and Blacks are more likely to make a purchase within the next year
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- Figure 109: Approximately when will the next vehicle be purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Race/Hispanic origin and the HEV market
- More than half of Hispanics likely or very likely to consider purchasing a hybrid
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- Figure 110: Intent on purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Hispanics who are interested in alternative fuel vehicles also interested in crossovers and light-duty pickups
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- Figure 111: Alternative fuel intenders future purchase intent, by vehicle body style, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Hispanics more likely to not have a place to charge up a plug-in electric
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- Figure 112: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle only, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
- Whites and non-Hispanics more interested in saving money on fuel when considering a hybrid or plug-in
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- Figure 113: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle only, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Number of vehicles owned by household
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- Figure 114: Number of vehicles owned by household, November 2013
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- Figure 115: Number of vehicles owned by household, by mileage driven, November 2013
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- Figure 116: Number of vehicles owned by household, by vehicle type planned to purchase, new, used, CPO, November 2013
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- Figure 117: Number of vehicles owned by household, by smartphone and tablet ownership, November 2013
- Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style
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- Figure 118: Vehicles owned by household, by vehicle body style, by vehicle type planned to purchase, by new, used, CPO, November 2013
- Miles personally driven annually
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- Figure 119: Miles personally driven annually, November 2013
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- Figure 120: Miles personally driven annually, by household income, November 2013
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- Figure 121: Miles personally driven annually, by gender, November 2013
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- Figure 122: Miles personally driven annually, by generations, November 2013
- Cost of most recently acquired vehicle
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- Figure 123: Cost of most recently acquired vehicle, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 124: Cost of most recently acquired vehicle, by household income, November 2013
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- Figure 125: Cost of most recently acquired vehicle, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
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- Figure 126: Cost of most recently acquired vehicle, by mileage driven, November 2013
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- Figure 127: Cost of most recently acquired vehicle, by vehicle type planned to purchase, new, used, CPO, November 2013
- Vehicle last purchased by new, used, or CPO
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- Figure 128: Vehicle last purchased by new, used, or CPO, by region, November 2013
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- Figure 129: Vehicle last purchased by new, used, or CPO, by smartphone and tablet ownership, November 2013
- Vehicle usage/activity
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- Figure 130: Vehicle usage/activity, November 2013
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- Figure 131: Vehicle usage/activity, by generations, November 2013
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- Figure 132: Vehicle usage/activity, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
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- Figure 133: Vehicle usage/activity, by presence of children in household, November 2013
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- Figure 134: Vehicle usage/activity, by mileage driven, November 2013
- Other travel methods, besides automobile
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- Figure 135: Other travel methods, besides automobile, by frequency of use, November 2013
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- Figure 136: Frequency of walking versus using an automobile, by gender, November 2013
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- Figure 137: Frequency of using public transportation versus using an automobile, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2013
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- Figure 138: Frequency of public transportation versus using an automobile, by generations, November 2013
- When next vehicle will be purchased
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- Figure 139: When the next vehicle will be purchased, by gender, November 2013
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- Figure 140: When the next vehicle will be purchased, by mileage driven, November 2013
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- Figure 141: When the next vehicle will be purchased, by vehicle type planned to purchase, new used, CPO, November 2013
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- Figure 142: When the next vehicle will be purchased, by smartphone and tablet ownership, November 2013
- Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle
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- Figure 143: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by household income, November 2013
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- Figure 144: Reasons for not wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by presence of children in household, November 2013
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- Figure 145: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by smartphone and tablet ownership, November 2013
- Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle
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- Figure 146: Reasons for wanting an alternative fuel vehicle, by car ownership, November 2013
Appendix – Social Media
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 147: Brand usage or awareness, November 2013
- Figure 148: Tesla (ie tesla model S) usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 149: Toyota Prius (ie Prius, Prius c, Prius v) usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 150: Toyota Prius (ie Prius, Prius c, Prius v) usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Activities done
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- Figure 151: Activities done, November 2013
- Figure 152: Tesla – activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 153: Tesla – activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November°2013
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- Figure 154: Tesla – activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November°2013
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- Figure 155: Toyota Prius – activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 156: Toyota Prius – activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 157: Toyota Prius – activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 158: Toyota Prius – activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 159: Ford C-Max – activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 160: Ford C-Max – activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 161: Ford C-Max – activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 162: Nissan LEAF – activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 163: Nissan LEAF – activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 164: Nissan LEAF – activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 165: Nissan LEAF – activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 166: Chevrolet Volt – activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 167: Chevrolet Volt – activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 168: Chevrolet Volt – activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 169: Volkswagen Jetta TDI – activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 170: Volkswagen Jetta TDI – activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 171: Volkswagen Jetta TDI – activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 172: Volkswagen Jetta TDI – activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
Appendix – Trade Associations
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