Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Grocery retailers sector size and forecast (incl. VAT), 2008-18
- Market factors
- Companies, brands and innovation
- 2012: Premium and discount winners
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- Figure 2: Leading grocers: Shares of all grocers’ sales, 2011 and 2012
- 2013
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- Figure 3: Leading grocery retailers: forecast growth in net revenues, 2013
- The consumer
- Retailers used for main grocery shop
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- Figure 4: The consumer: Retailer used for main grocery shop, September 2013
- Types of stores used for grocery shopping
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- Figure 5: The consumer: Type of stores used for grocery shopping, September 2013
- Changes in types of stores used
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- Figure 6: Proportion of population that has switched to a particular type of store/retailer in last year, September 2013
- Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers
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- Figure 7: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers in the past 12 months, September 2013
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- Figure 8: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers in the past 12 months, by in-store/online, September 2013
- Habits and attitudes in shopping for non-grocery items
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- Figure 9: The consumer: Habits and attitudes – shopping for non-grocery items, September 2013
- Services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer
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- Figure 10: Services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer, September 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What are the implications of online grocery shopping?
- The facts
- The implications
- Can revitalised stores halt a decline for hypermarkets?
- The facts
- The implications
- Is convenience booming?
- The facts
- The implications
- Who is feeling the heat from the discounters?
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Applications
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- Creature Comforts
- Collective Intelligence
- Mintel Futures
The Market Environment
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- Key points
- Confidence has been on an upward trajectory
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- Figure 11: Consumer confidence levels, October 2012-September 2013
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- Figure 12: Mintel’s consumer tracker: Percentage better off/worse off compared to 12 months ago, July 2011-September 2013
- But incomes remain under pressure
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- Figure 13: Annual % change in consumer prices versus annual % change in average earnings, January 2009-July 2013
- And inflation is high in food
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- Figure 14: Consumer prices index: annual % change, selected categories, October 2012-September 2013
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- Figure 15: Consumer prices index: annual % change, detailed categories, October 2012-September 2013 and 2012 annual average
Consumer Spending and Inflation
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- Key points
- Spending by category
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- Figure 16: Consumer spending on grocery and related categories (incl. VAT), 2008-13
- General merchandise
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- Figure 17: Consumer spending on selected general merchandise categories (incl. VAT), 2008-13
- Consumer prices inflation
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- Figure 18: Consumer prices index: Annual % change, October 2012-September 2013
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- Figure 19: Consumer prices index: Annual % change, 2008-13
- Real-terms spending growth
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- Figure 20: Inferred real-terms annual spending growth, by category, 2008-13
Sector Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Total sector sees real-terms declines
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- Figure 21: Grocery retailers sector size and forecast (incl. VAT), 2008-18
- Figure 22: Grocery retailers sector size and forecast (incl. VAT), in current and constant prices, 2008-18
- Segmentation: Convenience stores outpace supermarkets
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- Figure 23: Supermarkets, including online, retail sales and forecast (incl. VAT), 2008-18
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- Figure 24: Convenience stores retail sales and forecast (incl. VAT), 2008-18
- Figure 25: Supermarkets, including online, retail sales and forecast (incl. VAT), in current and constant prices, 2008-18
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- Figure 26: Convenience stores retail sales and forecast (incl. VAT), in current and constant prices, 2008-18
- Mintel’s forecast methodology
- The forecast
- The fan chart
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
The Consumer – Retail Customer Profile Comparison
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- Key points
- Gender
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- Figure 27: Consumer profile of primary shoppers by gender, October 2013
- Age
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- Figure 28: Consumer profile of primary shoppers, by age, October 2013
- Region
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- Figure 29: Consumer profile of primary shoppers, by region, October 2013
- Household size
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- Figure 30: Consumer profile of primary shoppers, by household size, October 2013
- Financial situation
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- Figure 31: Consumer profile of primary shoppers, by state of finances, October 2013
The Consumer – Grocery Shopping Habit Tracker
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- Key points
- Consumer confidence
- Financial situation
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- Figure 32: “How do you feel about your current financial situation”, 2009-13
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- Figure 33: “How do you feel about your financial prospects”, 2009-13
- Food buying habits
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- Figure 34: “I look out for more special offers (eg buy one get one free)”, 2012-13
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- Figure 35: “I have switched from branded to cheaper own-label groceries”, 2012-13
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- Figure 36: “I have cut down on the number of premium products I buy (eg Tesco Finest, Sainsbury's Taste the Difference etc)”, 2012-13
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- Figure 37: “I have cut back on organic products to save money”, 2012-13
The Consumer – Changing Shopping Habits
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- Key points
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- Figure 38: Changes in usage of grocery stores, September 2013
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- Figure 39: Proportion of population that has switched to a particular retailer in the last year, September 2013
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- Figure 40: Profile of those who have shopped more from discounters, online and C-stores, September 2013
The Consumer – Where People Shop
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- Key points
- Main shoppers
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- Figure 41: Stores used for main grocery shop, September 2013
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- Figure 42: Profile of main shoppers, September 2013
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- Figure 43: All stores used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 44: Profile of shoppers of particular stores, September 2013
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- Figure 45: Profile by age of respondent and household size, September 2013
The Consumer – What Have People Bought
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- Key points
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- Figure 46: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers, September 2013
- In-store purchases
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- Figure 47: in-store purchasers of non-grocery products, September 2013
- Online purchases
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- Figure 48: Online purchasers of non-grocery products, September 2013
- Repertoire
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- Figure 49: Number of different types of non-foods bought from grocery retailers, September 2013
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- Figure 50: Profile of customers by number of non-food items bought, September 2013
The Consumer – Attitudes to Buying Non-Groceries
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- Key points
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- Figure 51: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, September 2013
- Store location
- Profiles of attitudes to non-grocery buying
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- Figure 52: Profiles of attitudes to buying non-groceries, September 2013
The Consumer – Provision of Services
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- Key points
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- Figure 53: Services that have been used or would consider using, September 2013
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- Figure 54: Profile of users of Supermarket services, September 2013
Advertising and Promotion
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- Key points
- Total ad spend falls
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- Figure 55: Main media advertising spend, by leading grocery retailers, 2009-12
- Majority of ad spend channelled through the press and TV
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- Figure 56: Leading grocers’ main media advertising spend, by media type, 2012
- What we have seen in 2013
- Tesco’s digital entertainment and fashion push
- The world of Ocado
- Iceland moving further away from celebrity advertising
- Asda’s low prices commitment
- Morrisons multimillion pound TV sponsorship deal
- Spar addresses popular misconception
- Lidl UK’s first ever nationwide TV advert
- Sainsbury’s ‘Back Tu School’ and brand match values campaign
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the food retailing sector, July 2013
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 58: Attitudes, by food retailing brand, July 2013
- Brand personality
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- Figure 59: Food retailing brand personality – macro image, July 2013
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- Figure 60: Food retailing brand personality – micro image, July 2013
- Brand experience
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- Figure 61: Food retailing brand usage, July 2013
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- Figure 62: Satisfaction with various food retailing brands, July 2013
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- Figure 63: Consideration of food retailing brands, July 2013
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- Figure 64: Consumer perceptions of current food retailing brand performance, July 2013
- Brand index
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- Figure 65: Food retailing brand index, July 2013
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 66: Target groups, July 2013
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- Figure 67: Food retailing brand usage, by target groups, July 2013
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- First supermarket farm shop in the UK
- Music download reward for in-store customers
- Food collection lockers
- ‘Concierge-style welcome desks’
- Sainsbury’s sustainable store concept
- Mobile wallet to speed up click & collect checkout
- Shopping and leisure destination
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- Figure 68: Euphorium Bakery, Tesco Watford, August 2013
- Face-scanning technology enables targeted ads
- ‘Smart shelves’
- Off premises click & collect services
- EasyJet founder to launch new low-cost supermarket
- Personalised 3D-printing service
Space Allocation Summary
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- Key points
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- Figure 69: Space allocation of foods and non-foods, October 2013
- Detailed space allocation estimates
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- Figure 70: Leading grocers: Detailed space allocation estimates, October 2013
- Figure 71: Leading grocers: Detailed space allocation estimates, October 2013 (ctd)
Retail Product Mix
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- Key points
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- Figure 72: Leading food retailers: Broad sales mix, 2012/13
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- Figure 73: Leading food retailers: Sales by product in larger stores, 2012/13
- Figure 74: Leading food retailers: Sales per square metre in larger stores, 2012/13
Distribution of Spending
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- Key points
- Distribution of spending on food, beverages and tobacco
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- Figure 75: Estimated distribution of spending on food, beverages and tobacco, 2012
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- Figure 76: Estimated distribution of spending on food, beverages and tobacco, 2010-12
Market Shares
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- Key points
- Tesco falls back in 2012
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- Figure 77: Leading grocers: Shares of all grocers’ sales, 2011 and 2012
- In detail: Morrisons set to fall in 2013
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- Figure 78: Leading grocers: Shares of all grocers’ sales, 2008-13
- Technical note: Non-retail revenues
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- Figure 79: Leading grocers: Estimated percentage of revenues from non-retail sources, 2008-13
Leading Retailers – Financials and Outlets
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- Key points
- The leaders: Our forecasts for 2013
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- Figure 80: Leading grocery retailers: forecast growth in net revenues, 2013
- Revenues in detail: The top 25
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- Figure 81: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ net revenues (ranked by 2012 revenues), 2008-13
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- Figure 82: Leading grocery retailers’ net revenues: compound annual growth rates, 2008-12
- Store numbers and sales per outlet
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- Figure 83: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ outlet numbers, 2008-13
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- Figure 84: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ average sales per outlet, 2008-13
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- Figure 85: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ average sales per outlet: compound annual growth rates, 2008-12
- Space and sales densities
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- Figure 86: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ total sales area, 2008-12
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- Figure 87: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ average sales per sq m, 2008-12
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- Figure 88: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ average sales per sq m: compound annual growth rates, 2008-12
- Operating profits and margins
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- Figure 89: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ operating profits, 2008-12
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- Figure 90: Leading grocery/convenience retailers’ operating margins, 2008-12
Online and Social Media
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- Key points
- Online grocery market size and market shares
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- Figure 91: Online grocery market size (incl. VAT), 2010-14
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- Figure 92: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers sales/grocers sector sales, 2010-13
- Figure 93: Online grocery market shares, 2011 and 2012
- Major grocers’ total online sales
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- Figure 94: Leading grocers’ estimated total net online sales (grocery and non-grocery), 2010-12
- The Morrisons launch: what we think
- Online non-grocery ranges
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- Figure 95: Major grocers’ online non-grocery ranges, November 2013
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- Figure 96: Walmart’s Vudu video-on-demand service, October 2013
- Recent developments
- Social media
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- Figure 97: The consumer: Usage of social media sites, July 2013
- Figure 98: Leading grocers’ follower numbers on social media, October 2013
Aldi
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- What we think
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- Figure 99: Aldi: Number of new product lines recorded for brand keywords ‘Gourmet’ in Germany and ‘Specially Selected’ in the UK at Aldi, 2012 and 2013
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- Figure 100: Aldi Süd, Germany: Selected special offers, 6 November 2013
- Figure 101: Aldi Nord, Germany: Selected special offers, 6 November 2013
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 102: Aldi: Distribution of total European sales by market (estimated), 2012
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- Figure 103: Aldi: Estimated group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
- Figure 104: Aldi: Estimated outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Retail offering
Asda
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 105: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008-13
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- Figure 106: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2008-12
- Retail offering
The Co-operative Food
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- What we think
- Company performance
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- Figure 107: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2012/13
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- Figure 108: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
Iceland Foods
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 109: Iceland Foods Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2012/13
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- Figure 110: Iceland Foods Ltd: Outlet data, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
Lidl/Kaufland (Schwarz Group)
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 111: Schwarz Group: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2012/13
- Figure 112: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
Marks & Spencer (UK food)
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 113: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Group financial performance, 2008/09-2013/14
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- Figure 114: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Food outlets by format, 2008/09-2012/13
- Figure 115: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Outlet data, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
Wm Morrison Group
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 116: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2012/13
- Figure 117: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
Ocado
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 118: Ocado Ltd: Group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
- Retail offering
Sainsbury’s
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 119: J Sainsbury's Supermarkets: Group financial performance, 2007/08-2011/12
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- Figure 120: J Sainsbury's Supermarkets: Outlet data, 2007/08-2011/12
- Store formats
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- Figure 121: Sainsbury’s supermarkets: outlet numbers and space by store size, 2012/13
- Retail offering
Spar Europe
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 122: SPAR International: Retail sales by country, 2008-12
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- Figure 123: SPAR International: Outlets, 2008-12
- Figure 124: SPAR International: Sales area, by country, 2008-12
- Figure 125: SPAR International: Sales per sq m, by country, 2008-12
- Retail offering
Tesco
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 126: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2012/13
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- Figure 127: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
Waitrose
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- What we think
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 129: Waitrose Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008/09-2013/14
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- Figure 130: Waitrose Ltd: Outlet data, 2008/09-2012/13
- Retail offering
Appendix – The Consumer – Where They Shop
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- Figure 131: Retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 132: Most popular retailers used for grocery shopping, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 133: Next most popular retailers used for grocery shopping, by demographics, September 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Types of Stores Used for Grocery Shopping
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- Figure 134: Type of stores used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 135: Type of stores used for grocery shopping, by retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 136: Most popular type of stores used for grocery shopping, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 137: Next most popular type of stores used for grocery shopping, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 138: Other type of stores used for grocery shopping, by demographics, September 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Changes in Types of Stores Used
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- Figure 139: Changes in usage of grocery stores, September 2013
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- Figure 140: Changes in usage of grocery stores, by most popular retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 141: Changes in usage of grocery stores, by next most popular retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 142: Changes in usage of grocery stores, by other retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 143: Changes in usage of grocery stores – Large out-of-town superstore/hypermarket, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 144: Changes in usage of grocery stores – Town-centre or high-street superstore/supermarket, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 145: Changes in usage of grocery stores – Convenience store, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 146: Changes in usage of grocery stores – Discount supermarket, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 147: Changes in usage of grocery stores – Online from a supermarket, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 148: Changes in usage of grocery stores – Butchers shop, by demographics, September 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Non-Grocery Items Bought From Grocery Retailers
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- Figure 149: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers, September 2013
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- Figure 150: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers, by retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 151: Most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 152: Next most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 153: Other non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 154: Least popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 155: Most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – In-store, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 156: Next most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – In-store, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 157: Other non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – In-store, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 158: Least popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – In-store, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 159: Most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Online, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 160: Next most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Online, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 161: Other non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Online, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 162: Least popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Online, by demographics, September 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes to Shopping for Non-Grocery Products
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- Figure 163: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, September 2013
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- Figure 164: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, September 2013
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- Figure 165: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by next most popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, September 2013
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- Figure 166: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by other non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, September 2013
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- Figure 167: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by least popular non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Any, September 2013
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- Figure 168: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by most popular type of stores used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 169: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by next most popular type of stores used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 170: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by other type of stores used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 171: Consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 172: Most popular consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 173: Next most popular consumer habits-shopping for non-grocery items, by demographics, September 2013
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Appendix – The Consumer – Services Bought or Would Consider Buying
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- Figure 174: Services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer, September 2013
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- Figure 175: Services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer, by retailers used for grocery shopping, September 2013
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- Figure 176: Most popular services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer – Have bought from a grocery retailer in last 12 months, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 177: Next most popular services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer – Have bought from a grocery retailer in last 12 months, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 178: Other services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer – Have bought from a grocery retailer in last 12 months, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 179: Most popular services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer – Have not bought in the last 12 months but would consider buying from a grocery retailer in the future, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 180: Next most popular services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer – Have not bought in the last 12 months but would consider buying from a grocery retailer in the future, by demographics, September 2013
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- Figure 181: Other services bought or would consider buying from a grocery retailer – Have not bought in the last 12 months but would consider buying from a grocery retailer in the future, by demographics, September 2013
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 182: Brand usage, July 2013
- Figure 183: Brand usage, July 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 184: Brand commitment, July 2013
- Figure 185: Brand commitment, July 2013 (continued)
- Figure 186: Brand momentum, July 2013
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- Figure 187: Brand momentum, July 2013 (continued)
- Figure 188: Brand diversity, July 2013
- Figure 189: Brand diversity, July 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 190: Brand satisfaction, July 2013
- Figure 191: Brand satisfaction, July 2013 (continued)
- Figure 192: Brand attitude, July 2013
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- Figure 193: Brand attitude, July 2013 (continued)
- Figure 194: Brand image – macro image, July 2013
- Figure 195: Brand image – macro image, July 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 196: Brand image – micro image, July 2013
- Figure 197: Brand image – micro image, July 2013 (continued)
- Figure 198: Profile of target groups, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 199: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, July 2013
- Figure 200: Brand usage, by target groups, July 2013
- Brand index
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- Figure 201: Brand index, July 2013
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