Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Industry definitions of yellow fats
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by value, by segment, 2012 and 2013 (est)
- The future
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- Figure 2: Retail value sales and forecast of yellow fats and oils, UK, by value, 2008-18
- Market factors
- Growth in 25-34s and C2s will support the market
- Encouraging consumers to trade up will add value to the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Arla Foods leads the market
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- Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK yellow fats market, by value, 2012/13*
- NPD focuses on butter
- Unilever and Arla Foods dominate adspend
- The consumer
- More than eight in ten consumers buy spread/butter and oils
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- Figure 4: Yellow fats bought, by type, July 2013
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- Figure 5: Edible oils bought, by type, July 2013
- Spreads are used most frequently, with 45% using them daily
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- Figure 6: Frequency of using butter, spreads, edible oils and solid oils/fats, July 2013
- Ease of use is the key driver to consumers
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- Figure 7: Factors influencing choice of butter/spread, July 2013
- Three in five can taste the difference between spreads/butter brands
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards butter/spread, July 2013
- Health, portion control and flavour are important to consumers in oils
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards edible oils, July 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can spread brands cater to consumers’ health concerns?
- How can brands add value to the yellow fats market through NPD?
- What factors can the market leverage to engage older age groups?
- Can origin information help brands to stand out in the market?
Trend Application
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- Guiding Choice
- Sense of the Intense
- Futures: Human
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Reduced and low-fat spreads dominate, but continue to see a decline in consumption
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- Figure 10: Household purchased quantities of butter, spreads and cooking fat, 1974-2011
- Olive oil gains popularity
- Prices stabilise for butter, rise for oils and fats
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- Figure 11: Retail prices index of butter and oil and fats, January 2009-June 2013
- Baking trend continues
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- Figure 12: Frequency of baking at home, June 2013
- Demographic changes
- Growth in core cohorts set to create opportunities for the market
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- Figure 13: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2008-13 and 2013-18
- Stunted growth in ABs potentially dampens premiumisation in the market
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- Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2008-18
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Margarine and spread NPD grows as oils fall since 2009
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- Figure 15: NPD in yellow fats and edible oils, by segment, 2008-13
- Brands dominate spreads, own-label grows in butter
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- Figure 16: NPD in yellow fats and edible oils, by product category, by brand vs own-label, 2012
- Own-label accounts for almost half of NPD in oil
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- Figure 17: NPD in edible oils, branded vs own-label, 2008-13
- Baking and cooking occasions pose potential for NPD
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- Figure 18: Top packaging trends in NPD in yellow fats, 2008-13
- Cold pressed rapeseed oils offer a higher smoke point, while retaining health benefits
- Health remains important to spreads and oils NPD
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- Figure 19: Health claims in margarines and spreads NPD, 2008-13
- Oils also look to health
- Sprays offer portion control
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Butter, spreads and edible oils
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of butter, spreads and edible oils, 2008-18
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- Figure 21: UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by value, by segment, 2012 and 2013 (est)
- Forecast
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- Figure 22: Retail sales and forecast of yellow fats and oils, UK, by value, 2008-18
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- Figure 23: Retail sales and forecast of yellow fats and oils, UK, by volume, 2008-18
- Methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Butter dominates the yellow fats market
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- Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of butter*, 2008-18
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- Figure 25: UK retail value sales of butter, by type, 2008-12
- Spreads see a year-on-year decline
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- Figure 26: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, 2008-18
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- Figure 27: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, by type, 2010-12
- Cooking and baking spreads/oils
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- Figure 28: UK retail value and volume sales of cooking and baking spreads*, 2008-18
- Edible oils see slight rise in value and volume sales
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- Figure 29: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, 2008-18
- Standard leads the edible oils market, maintaining its almost 50% share
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- Figure 30: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils (liquid), by type, 2010-12
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- Figure 31: Estimated UK retail value sales of edible oils (liquid), by type, 2010-12
Market Share
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- Key points
- Yellow fats
- Arla Foods leads by value share, Unilever by volume share
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- Figure 32: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- Flora sees sales decline but still leads the yellow fats market
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- Figure 33: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
- Lurpak continues to grow thanks to success of spreadable variants
- Most brands struggle to grow sales
- Oils
- Own-label dominates but Crisp ‘n Dry sees sales and share increase in standard cooking oils
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- Figure 34: Estimated brand sales and shares in the standard cooking oil* market, 2010-12
- Napolina takes on Filippo Berio in olive oil
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- Figure 35: Brand sales and shares in the olive oil market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Companies and Products
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- Adams Foods
- Arla Foods
- Dairy Crest
- Unilever
- Filippo Berio
- Princes Group
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Total adspend reaches almost £30 million in 2012
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- Figure 36: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, 2009-13
- Yellow fats dominate but oils have been stepping up spend
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- Figure 37: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by segment, 2008-13
- Unilever accounts for 40% of spend in the market
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- Figure 38: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by advertiser, 2009-13
- Arla and Unilever account for four of the top five brands
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- Figure 39: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by leading brands, 2012
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Supermarkets dominate distribution in yellow fats…
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- Figure 40: UK retail value sales of yellow fats, by outlet type, 2010-12
- …and in edible oils
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- Figure 41: UK retail value sales of edible oils, by outlet type, 2010-12
Consumer – Purchasing Habits
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- Key points
- More than nine in ten consumers use spread/butter
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- Figure 42: Yellow fats bought, by type, July 2013
- Spreads appeal most to C2s and full-time employees
- Butter attracts a more discerning user base
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- Figure 43: Types of butter bought, by age, socio-economic status and annual household income, July 2013
- More than half buy just two types of yellow fats
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- Figure 44: Repertoire of yellow fats bought, by type, July 2013
- 82% buy edible oils/solid oils/fats
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- Figure 45: Edible oils bought, by type, July 2013
- Olive oil attracts a more affluent consumer
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- Figure 46: Olive oils bought, by type, by demographics, July 2013
- Three in five buy one to three types of oil
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- Figure 47: Repertoire of edible oils bought, by type, July 2013
Consumer – Usage
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- Key points
- More than three in four use yellow fats and oils
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- Figure 48: Usage of yellow fats and oils, July 2013
- Spreads are used most frequently, with 45% using them daily
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- Figure 49: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils, July 2013
Consumer – Occasions
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- Key points
- On toast is the most popular usage for butter/spread, when cooking for edible oils and solid oils/fats
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- Figure 50: Ways in which butter, spreads, edible oils and solid oils/fats have been eaten/used, July 2013
- Baking drives usage of butter
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- Figure 51: Ways in which butter has been eaten/used, by age, July 2013
- Oils and solid oils/fats are most commonly used when cooking…
- …followed by when baking
Consumer – Factors Influencing Choice of Butter and Spreads
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- Key points
- Easy-to-use formats are the key driver for consumers
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- Figure 52: Factors influencing choice of butter/spread, July 2013
- Health still plays a role
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- Figure 53: Consumers who choose ‘low fat’ as a factor influencing their choice of one butter/spread over another, by gender, socio-economic status and annual household income, July 2013
- Baking drives call for unsalted butter/spreads
- Origin information of interest to more affluent groups
- Openness to new formats
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- Figure 54: Attitudes towards new products of butter/spreads, July 2013
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- Figure 55: Those who are ‘very interested’ in ‘butter/spread which is good for bones’, by presence of children in household, July 2013
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- Figure 56: Those who are ‘very interested’ in new products of butter/spreads, by age, July 2013
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Butter and Spreads
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- Key points
- Three in five can taste the difference between brands
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards butter/spread, July 2013
- Two fifths believe that naturalness equates to health for butter
- Flavours, added ingredients and texture appeal to the under-35s
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- Figure 58: Agreement with selected statements on butter/spread, by age, July 2013
- Tapping into consumer interest in farmers/farming could add value
Consumer Attitudes Towards Oils
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- Key points
- Health, portion control and flavour are important to consumers
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards edible oils, July 2013
- Educating consumers on product selection would help to demystify the category
- Flavour offers a shortcut to consumers
- Formats should cater to consumers’ desire for portion control
- Provenance has limited appeal
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Figure 60: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2013 prices, 2008-18
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of yellow fats and oils, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of yellow fats and oils, by volume, 2013-18
- Butter
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- Figure 63: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter*, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of butter, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 65: Retail sales and forecast of butter, UK, by volume, 2008-18
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- Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of butter, by volume, 2013-18
- Spreads
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- Figure 67: Retail sales and forecast of spreads, UK, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of spreads, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 69: Retail sales and forecast of spreads, UK, by volume, 2008-18
- Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of spreads, by volume, 2013-18
- Cooking and baking spreads
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- Figure 71: Retail sales and forecast of cooking and baking spreads, UK, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of cooking and baking spreads, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 73: Retail sales and forecast of cooking and baking spreads, UK, by volume, 2008-18
- Figure 74: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of cooking and baking spreads, by volume, 2013-18
- Edible oils
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- Figure 75: Retail sales and forecast of edible oils, UK, by value, 2008-18
- Figure 76: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of edible oils, by value, 2013-18
- Figure 77: Retail sales and forecast of edible oils, UK, by volume, 2008-18
- Figure 78: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of edible oils, by volume, 2013-18
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Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 79: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by media type, 2009-13
- Figure 80: Above-the-line media advertising spend on yellow fats and oils, by category, 2009-13
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- Figure 81: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by advertiser, 2009-13
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Appendix – Purchasing Habits
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- Figure 82: Yellow fats bought, by type – Butter, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 83: Most popular yellow fats bought, by type – Spread, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 84: Next most popular yellow fats bought, by type – Spread, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 85: Most popular edible oil bought, by type, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 86: Next most popular edible oil bought, by type, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 87: Other edible oil bought, by type, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 88: Edible oils bought, by type – Solid oil/fats, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Frequency of Usage
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- Figure 89: Frequency of usage of edible oils (eg vegetable oil, olive oil etc), by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 90: Frequency of usage of edible oils (eg vegetable oil, olive oil etc), by demographics, July 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 91: Frequency of usage of spreads, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 92: Frequency of usage of spreads, by demographics, July 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 93: Frequency of usage of butter, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 94: Frequency of usage of butter, by demographics, July 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 95: Frequency of usage of solid oils/fats (eg lard, fat), by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 96: Frequency of usage of solid oils/fats (eg lard, fat), by demographics, July 2013 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Occasions
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- Figure 97: Ways in which butter have been eaten/used, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 98: Ways in which spreads have been eaten/used, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 99: Ways in which edible oils have been eaten/used, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 100: Ways in which solid oils/fats have been eaten/used, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Factors Influencing Choice of Butter and Spreads
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- Figure 101: Most popular factors influencing choice of butter/spread, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 102: Next most popular factors influencing choice of butter/spread, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 103: Other factors influencing choice of butter/spread, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 104: Attitudes towards new products of butter/spread which is good for bones, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 105: Attitudes towards new products of butter/spread with added vitamins, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 106: Attitudes towards new products of butter/spread which are high in protein, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 107: Attitudes towards new products of butter/spread with added fibre, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 108: Attitudes towards new products of whipped butter/spread, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Yellow Fats
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- Figure 109: Attitudes towards butter/spread, July 2013
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- Figure 110: Agreement with the statement ‘I can taste the difference between different brands of butter/spread’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 111: Agreement with the statement ‘Butter enhances the flavour of food more than edible oil’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 112: Agreement with the statement ‘Supermarket own-label butter is just as good as branded’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 113: Agreement with the statement ‘The price of butter/spread has gone up noticeably in the last year’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 114: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worth paying more for butter/spread if the extra money goes to the farmer/producer’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 115: Agreement with the statement ‘Butter is healthier than spread because it is more natural’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 116: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worth paying more for butter/spread with health claims’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 117: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying butter made with added ingredients’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 118: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see a wider variety of flavoured butter’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 119: Agreement with the statement ‘Butter/spread with an unusual texture appeals to me’, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Oils
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- Figure 120: Most popular attitudes towards edible oils, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 121: Next most popular attitudes towards edible oils, by demographics, July 2013
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