Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The market
- Price increases help to avoid flat carbonated soft drink sales
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
- Diet soft drinks suffering from worst volume declines, seltzer a bright spot
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of packaged carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
- Market factors
- Soda bans place fresh pressure on an industry already under fire
- Population growth among racial, ethnic groups could boost industry
- Households with children decline at the same time as volume consumption drops
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- Figure 3: Net purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by intended audience, March 2013
- Retail channels
- Price, convenience drive retail channel choice for carbonated soft drinks
- Key players
- Three major CSD manufacturers continue to dominate market, despite declining sales
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- Figure 4: MULO sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2012-13
- The consumer
- Younger men most likely to purchase regular soft drinks
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- Figure 5: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by calorie level, by gender and age, March 2013
- Name brand, flavor more important attributes for purchase than low price
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- Figure 6: Top three product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
- Soft drinks losing their place as a favorite beverage, more apt to be a treat
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- Figure 7: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by favorite vs. treat, by generation, March 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What can the industry do to improve its image in difficult times?
- Insight: Continue education and outreach
- What new occasions or opportunities are available for soft drinks?
- Insight: Emphasize the possibility of pairing
- Can slumping sales of diet soft drinks be reversed?
- Insight: Continue to market to middle-aged consumers, especially men
- What is the next emerging soft drink alternative segment?
- Insight: Continue to push natural, yet bubbly options
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Collective Intelligence
- Trend: Extend My Brand
- Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- CSDs continually losing sparkle with future sales slated to be flat
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- Figure 8: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 9: Total U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Soda bans place fresh pressure on an industry already under fire
- Sweetener sensitivities create hurdles for manufacturers
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- Figure 12: Agreement with attitudes toward sweeteners in carbonated soft drinks, by purchase of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
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- Figure 13: Sweetener qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
- Population growth among racial, ethnic groups could boost industry
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- Figure 14: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
- Drop in households with children detrimental for soft drink makers
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- Figure 15: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by presence of children in household, March 2013
- Figure 16: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by presence of children in household, March 2013
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- Figure 17: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by presence of children in household, March 2013
- Soft drink volume consumption declining among kids, teens
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- Figure 18: Teen consumption of soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 19: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by audience, March 2013
- Figure 20: Kid consumption of regular cola and other regular soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Water showcases growth as consumers cut back on sweetened drinks
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- Figure 21: Change in personal non-alcoholic drinking habits, by category, November 2012
- Sparkling water offers particular advantages as a CSD alternative
- Ready-to-drink teas, energy drinks also suffer from sugar concerns
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Diet suffers declines as consumers trade away, while seltzer shines
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- Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales of packaged carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
Segment Performance – Regular Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- At current prices, regular soft drinks fall flat; with inflation, they decline
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- Figure 23: Sales and forecast of regular soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 24: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of regular soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Volume consumption falling across both full-calorie cola, flavors
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- Figure 25: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola and non-cola drinks, October 2007-November 2012
- Younger blacks, Hispanics lead volume consumption of full-calorie cola
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- Figure 26: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by race and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Figure 27: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Volume consumption of flavored full-calorie soft drinks exceeds colas
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- Figure 28: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by race and hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
- Despite cutbacks, black teens continue to report high volume use
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- Figure 29: Teen consumption of regular cola drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 30: Teen consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
- Kids aged 9-11 report high rates of consumption, but volume is falling
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- Figure 31: Kid consumption of regular cola drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 32: Kid consumption of regular other soft drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Segment Performance – Diet Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Diet segment suffering, but forecast not so bleak as loyalists remain
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- Figure 33: Sales and forecast of diet soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 34: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of diet soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Usage, volume consumption falling across diet soft drink segments
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- Figure 35: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola and non-cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
- Middle-aged respondents report higher volume consumption of diet cola
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- Figure 36: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Men of all ages are most likely to reach for flavored diet soft drinks
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- Figure 37: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Teen girls grasp onto diet, although volume consumption dropping
Segment Performance – Seltzer Water
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- Key points
- Seltzer, tonic water, club soda surge among new beverage seekers
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- Figure 38: Sales and forecast of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 39: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of seltzer water/tonic water/club soda, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Most seltzer water brands see growth between 2012 and 2013
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- Figure 40: MULO sales of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Lack of artificial sweeteners, new flavors drive seltzer water purchase
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- Figure 41: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of seltzer water, March 2013
- Single-serving packaging, increased marketing influential for seltzer
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- Figure 42: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of seltzer water, March 2013
- Refreshment main motivator for seltzer water consumption
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- Figure 43: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by purchase for personal consumption of seltzer water, March 2013
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Other retail channel maintains dominance, drug stores see growth
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- Figure 44: Total U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2007-12
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- Figure 45: U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, 2010 and 2012
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Three major CSD manufacturers, private label all see drop in sales
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- Figure 46: MULO sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Coca-Cola pushes online interaction, expands package size options
- PepsiCo places spotlight on core brands Pepsi, Mtn Dew, Sierra Mist
- Dr Pepper Snapple Group hedges bets on low-calorie lineup
Brand Share – Regular Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Flavored regular soft drinks outgrow colas, Pepsi Next makes entrance
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- Figure 47: MULO sales of regular carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- The cola wars return as Pepsi Next takes aim at Coca-Cola in viral video
- Fanta expands animated campaign to promote play to global teens
- Emphasis on natural elevates sales of Canada Dry Ginger Ale
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- Figure 48: Seagram’s ginger ale coupon flier, May 19, 2013
- Black consumers should be a target for cherry flavored colas
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- Figure 49: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by race and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Citrus flavored brands attract most multicultural users
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- Figure 50: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by race and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Figure 51: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
Brand Share – Diet Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Masculine edge helps Dr Pepper Ten, Coke Zero outperform Diet brands
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- Figure 52: MULO sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
- Expansion of Ten lineup forgoes man-centric focus
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- Figure 53: 7 UP Ten, television ad, 2013
- Coke Zero, Pepsi Max connect with younger men, women stick to diet
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- Figure 54: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Flavored diet brands could capitalize on desire for variety
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- Figure 55: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 56: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Diet cola carves a niche with teen girls, while teen boys favor flavors
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- Figure 57: Teen consumption of top 10 carbonated diet or sugar-free cola drinks, by gender, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 58: Teen consumption of other carbonated diet or sugar-free soft drinks, by gender, October 2011-November 2012
Innovations and Innovators
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- Packaging changes emphasize portion control, limited editions
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- Figure 59: Carbonated soft drink launches, by launch type, April 2012-April 2013
- Flavor experimentation could bring in curious consumers
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- Figure 60: Top 20 carbonated soft drink flavor introductions, April 2012-April 2013
- Due to consumer skepticism, sweeteners the focus for some products
- Packaging, flavor ideas provided by international innovations
- Packaging
- Flavors
- Products
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- Brand analysis: Coca-Cola
- Online initiatives
- TV presence
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- Figure 61: Coca-Cola, television ad, 2013
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- Figure 62: Coca-Cola, television ad, 2013
- Figure 63: Coca-Cola coupon ad, May 19, 2013
- Brand analysis: Diet Pepsi
- Print and other
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- Figure 64: Diet Pepsi, print ad, April 2013
- TV presence
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- Figure 65: Diet Pepsi, television ad, 2012
- Brand analysis: Mountain Dew
- Brand analysis: Dr Pepper
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- Figure 66: Dr Pepper, television ad, 2013
- Brand analysis: Sprite
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- Figure 67: Sprite, television ad, 2012
- Brand analysis: Zevia
- Print and other
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- Figure 68: Zevia Pro-Soda Ban Ad, 2012
Social Media – Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Social media metrics
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- Figure 69: Key performance indicators of selected carbonated soft drink brands, May 2013
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 70: Usage and awareness of selected carbonated soft drink brands, March 2013
- Interaction with carbonated soft drink brands
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- Figure 71: Interaction with carbonated soft drink brands, March 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 72: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
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- Figure 73: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by day, April 14-May 13, 2013
- Where are people talking about carbonated beverages?
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- Figure 74: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 75: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
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- Figure 76: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
- Analysis by brand
- Coca-Cola
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- Figure 77: Coca-Cola – key social media indicators, May 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Sprite
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- Figure 78: Sprite – key social media indicators, May 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Dr Pepper
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- Figure 79: Dr Pepper – key social media indicators, May 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Mountain Dew
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- Figure 80: Mountain Dew – key social media indicators, May 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Diet Pepsi
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- Figure 81: Diet Pepsi – key social media indicators, May 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Zevia
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- Figure 82: Zevia – key social media indicators, May 2013
- Key campaigns
- What we think
The Consumer – Purchase Preferences
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- Key points
- Younger men most likely to purchase regular soft drinks
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- Figure 83: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, by gender and age, March 2013
- Higher-income whites more likely to purchase diet soft drinks
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- Figure 84: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, by race and income, March 2013
- Matrix, Millennial soft drink buyers interested in emerging CSD segments
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- Figure 85: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by generation, March 2013
- Flavors appeal to younger buyers, cola the standard for older ones
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- Figure 86: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by flavor, by generation, March 2013
- Possible crossover opportunity between low-calorie, other CSDs
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- Figure 87: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by net purchase of low- or mid-calorie soft drinks, March 2013
The Consumer – Purchase Motivations
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- Key points
- Soft drinks losing their place as favored beverage, more apt to be a treat
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- Figure 88: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by generation, March 2013
- Older consumers drawn in by brand, younger consumers by flavor
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- Figure 89: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by generation, March 2013
- Younger men show preference for natural sweeteners
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- Figure 90: Agreement with attitudes toward sweeteners used in carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
- Diet remains realm of older women, younger men open to low-calorie
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- Figure 91: Agreement with attitudes toward calorie level of carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
- Single-serving, portion-controlled influential to young soft drink buyers
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- Figure 92: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by age, March 2013
- New flavors start outreach with package then smartphone marketing
The Consumer – Occasions for Personal Soft Drink Consumption
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- Key points
- Anywhere, anytime the soft drink consumption motto for young men
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- Figure 93: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by gender and age, March 2013
- Regular, diet show some variations in consumption time, place
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- Figure 94: Personal consumption of soft drinks by time, occasion, and location, by calorie level, March 2013
- Consumption while socializing motivated by taste, refreshment
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- Figure 95: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by any personal consumption of soft drinks, by occasion, March 2013
- At work, on-the-go consumption presents opportunities for placement
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- Figure 96: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics explore soft drink options, blacks focus on full-calorie flavors
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- Figure 97: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
- Other race consumers sensitive on sweeteners, blacks look for sugar
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- Figure 98: Sweetener qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
- Lower-income other race respondents hard to break from regular habits
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- Figure 99: Agreement with attitudes toward sweeteners and calories in carbonated soft drinks, by race and income, March 2013
- Calorie control is integral to lower-income Hispanics
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- Figure 100: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by Hispanic origin and income, March 2013
- In-store promotions, coupons connect with other race soft drink buyers
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- Figure 101: Packaging and/or promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
- Blacks give soft drinks highest marks for refreshment, flavor
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- Figure 102: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
- Hispanics stick to at-home consumption, blacks pair soda with dinner
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- Figure 103: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2013
Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data
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- Key household purchase measures
- Overview
- Regular soft drinks
- Brand map
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- Figure 104: Brand map, selected brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 105: Key purchase measures for the top brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012
- Diet soft drinks
- Brand map
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- Figure 106: Brand map, selected brands of low calorie soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 107: Key purchase measures for the top brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Obesity
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- Figure 108: U.S. obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012
- Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
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- Figure 109: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
- Racial, ethnic population growth
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- Figure 110: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
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- Figure 111: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
- Shifting U.S. demographics
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- Figure 112: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
- Figure 113: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Segment performance – Regular soft drinks
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- Figure 114: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, October 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 115: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
- Segment performance – Diet soft drinks
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- Figure 116: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 117: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated non-cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 118: Teen consumption of carbonated diet or sugar-free cola drinks, gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 119: Teen consumption of other carbonated diet or sugar-free soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
- Brand share – Regular soft drinks
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- Figure 120: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 121: Teen consumption of regular cola drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 122: Kid consumption of regular cola drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 123: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by brand, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 124: Adult consumption of top 10 other regular carbonated non-cola soft drink brands, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 125: Teen consumption of top 10 other regular/carbonated non-cola soft drink brands, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 126: Kid consumption of top 10 other soft drink brands, October 2011-November 2012
- Brand share – Diet soft drinks
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- Figure 127: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 128: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by brand, October 2007-November 2012
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- Figure 129: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by brand, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
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- Figure 130: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
- The consumer – Purchase preferences
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- Figure 131: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
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- Figure 132: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by any purchase (net) of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
- The consumer – Purchase motivations
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- Figure 133: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
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- Figure 134: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by net purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by calorie level and flavor, March 2013
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- Figure 135: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by presence of children in household, March 2013
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- Figure 136: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by generation, March 2013
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- Figure 137: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by gender, March 2013
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- Figure 138: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, March 2013
- The Consumer – Occasions for personal soft drink consumption
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- Figure 139: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by generation, March 2013
- Race and Hispanic origin
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- Figure 140: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
Appendix – Social Media
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- Online conversations
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- Figure 141: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
- Figure 142: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by day, April 14-May 13, 2013
- Figure 143: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
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- Figure 144: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
- Figure 145: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, by day, April 14-May 13, 2013
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- Figure 146: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 147: Brand usage and awareness, March 2013
- Figure 148: Coca-Cola usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
- Figure 149: Diet Pepsi usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 150: Dr Pepper usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
- Figure 151: Mountain Dew usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 152: Sprite usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
- Figure 153: Zevia usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
- Activities Done
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- Figure 154: Interaction with carbonated soft drink brands, March 2013
- Figure 155: Coca-Cola – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
- Figure 156: Diet Pepsi – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 157: Dr Pepper – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
- Figure 158: Mountain Dew – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 159: Sprite – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix – Trade Associations
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