Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value, 2007-17
- Segment performance
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- Figure 2: Trends in UK retail sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, value and volume, 2011-12
- Market factors
- Competition from alternative snacks and home baking
- Market opportunities lie in creating more healthy choices
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Market share
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- Figure 3: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by value and volume, 2012*
- NPD activity
- The consumer
- Types of cakes/cake bars purchased or eaten
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- Figure 4: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, March 2013
- Choice factors – nutritional/ingredients
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- Figure 5: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
- Choice factors - other
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- Figure 6: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
- Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
- Barriers to buying cake and cake bars
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- Figure 8: Barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What can cakes and cake bars learn from rival treat categories?
- Do healthier options resonate in the cake and cake bars market?
- How can cake brands combat low penetration among under-25s?
- How can flavour innovation support interest in the price-led market?
Trend Application
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- Trend: Perfecting the Details
- Trend: FSTR and HYPR
- Mintel Futures: Human
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Competitive pressures from alternative snacks
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- Figure 9: Household purchased quantities of selected food categories, by type, % change, 2006-11 and 2010-11
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- Figure 10: Performance of selected markets competing with cakes and cake bars, 2008-12
- Cupcakes mania shows no signs of abating
- Popularity of home baking
- Health and obesity concerns restrict cake consumption
- Smaller households pose a threat to cake and cake bars
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- Figure 11: Trends and projections in UK households, by size, 2007-17
- Price sensitivity heightened by widespread weak consumer confidence
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- Figure 12: Average annual price indices for cakes and biscuits, 2007-11
- Money-saving deals attract hard-pressed consumers
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- Figure 13: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2008-December 2012
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Innovation in cakes, pastries and sweet goods
- Own-label outweighs branded activity
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- Figure 14: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, own-label versus brands, 2009-12
- Brands look to sugar confectionery for inspiration
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- Figure 15: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top ten companies, 2012
- Seasonal impetus drives sales and offers further potential for growth
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- Figure 16: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by leading claims, 2012
- Untapped Easter opportunities
- Summer and Halloween
- Influx of limited editions in red, white and blue
- Number of new slimming lines rise in 2012
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- Figure 17: Product launches within the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by selected health-related claims, 2009-13*
- Free-from alternatives make cake more accessible
- Global examples
- Mr Kipling adds a modern twist on traditional flavours and formats
- No sign of cupcake momentum slowing
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Cakes and cake bars
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- Figure 18: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value and volume, 2007-11
- Continued blurring between categories
- Market outlook
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- Figure 19: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by volume, 2007-17
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- Figure 20: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value, 2007-17
- Small cakes and cake bars grow market share
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- Figure 21: UK retail sales of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by value and volume, 2007-17
- Figure 22: UK retail sales and forecast of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by value, 2007-17
- Large cakes – the shrink is on
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- Figure 23: UK retail sales of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by value and volume, 2007-17
- Figure 24: UK retail sales and forecast of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by value, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
- Overall positive performance by small cakes let down by seasonal/occasion and large cakes’ performance
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- Figure 25: UK retail sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, value and volume, % change, 2011-12
- Surge in small cake sales
- Seasonal opportunities
- Large cakes bolstered by Soreen’s snacking evolution
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- Figure 26: UK retail value sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-12
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- Figure 27: UK retail volume sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-12
Market Share
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- Key points
- Own-label tightens its grip on cakes and cake bars
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- Figure 28: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by value and volume, 2012*
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- Figure 29: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2012-13
- Figure 30: Brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, by volume, 2012-13*
- Mr Kipling extends its leadership among cake brands
- McVitie’s dips into chocolate and biscuit portfolio for brand extensions
- Can the launch of ‘minis’ help Fabulous Bakin’ Boys recover in 2013?
- Soreen celebrates 75th anniversary in style
- WeightWatchers relies on NPD to revive sales
Companies and Products
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- Figure 31: Leading brands in the cake and cake bars market, 2013
- United Biscuits (UBUK)
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Brand communication and promotion
- Premier Foods
- Background
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
- Brand communication and promotion
- McCambridge Group
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Brand communication and promotion
- Finsbury Food Group
- Recent activity
- Product range and innovation
- The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys (FBB)
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Brand communication and promotion
- Greencore
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Brand Communications
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- Key points
- Low but rising levels of adspend in cakes
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- Figure 32: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2009-13*
- Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the cakes and cake bars market, 2009-12
- Premier Foods flexes its heavyweight muscles in 2012
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- Figure 34: Advertising expenditure in the cakes and cake bars market, by highest-spending brands, 2009-13
- Mr Kipling powers ahead
- McVitie’s brings out the celebration cake
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Major multiples maintain their market dominance
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- Figure 35: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by outlet type, 2010-12
- A more rustic, homemade slant applied to in-store bakeries
Consumer – Types of Cakes/Cake Bars Purchased or Eaten
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- Key points
- Cake and cake bar usage
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- Figure 36: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, March 2013
- Cakes enjoy highest penetration among family households
- Large cakes make ‘staying in’ a more special occasion
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- Figure 37: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by selected age groups, % point +/- average, March 2013
- Youngest and oldest age groups lack engagement in the category
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- Figure 38: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
- Enthusiasm for cakes peaks among 25-44s
Consumer – Choice Factors (Nutritional and Ingredient-based)
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- Key points
- Important factors affecting choice of cakes and cake bars
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- Figure 39: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
- A sizeable minority of users value health credentials in cakes and cake bars
- Natural and free-from claims
- Functional attributes untested territory in cakes?
- Premium ingredients add sophistication
Consumer – Choice Factors (Non-Nutritional and Ingredient-based)
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- Key points
- Other important factors affecting choice of cakes and cake bars
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- Figure 40: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
- Price-sensitivity governs decision-making
- Flavour, ingredients and processes
- Convenience formats enhance usage potential
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Key points
- Cake users show reluctance to compromise on taste for health benefits
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
- Tapping into cake’s energy resources
- Sizeable minority are receptive to new flavours
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- Figure 42: Selected attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by over-55s, % point +/- average, March 2013
- Children are a positive influence on cake consumption
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- Figure 43: Selected attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by parents, March 2013
- Further demand for individual portions
- Confectionery brands attract a younger audience
Consumer – Barriers to Buying Cake and Cake Bars
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- Key points
- Health and cost reasons restrict cake purchase
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- Figure 44: Barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
- Health concerns top the list of potential barriers to purchase
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- Figure 45: Health-related barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
- Penny-pinching takes its toll on cakes
- A preference for home-made among older consumers
- Under-25s most likely to struggle to see cake as an ‘on the go’ option
- Young women are key target for reduced fat lines
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- Figure 46: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars “Reduced fat” – CHAID – Table output, March 2013
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Figure 47: Average weekly household purchased quantities of selected food categories, by type, % change, 2006-11 and 2010-11
- Figure 48: Trends and projections in the UK population (‘000s), by age group, 2007-17
- Figure 49: RPI, detailed indices for food and cake/biscuits, January 2012-February 2013
- Figure 50: Average monthly UK prices of wheat, January 2008-November 2012
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- Figure 51: Percentage monthly change in retail prices of butter and oil and fats, January 2007-April 2012
- Figure 52: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2007 prices, 2007-17
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Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 53: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by flavour, 2012
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Appendix – Market Forecast
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- Cakes and cake bars
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- Figure 54: Forecast of UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, best- and worst-case forecast, by volume,
- Small cakes and seasonal/occasion cakes
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- Figure 56: Forecast of UK retail sales of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 57: UK retail sales and forecast of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 58: UK retail sales and forecast of small cakes and cake bars and seasonal/occasion cakes, by volume, 2007-17
- Large cakes
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- Figure 59: Forecast of UK retail sales of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 60: UK retail sales and forecast of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 61: UK retail sales and forecast of large cakes (excl. seasonal/occasion cakes), by volume, 2007-17
Appendix – Brand Communications
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- Figure 62: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by media type, 2009-13
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Appendix – Consumer– Types of Cakes and Cake Bars Purchased/Eaten
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- Figure 63: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, March 2013
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- Figure 64: Most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 65: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 66: Most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 67: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 68: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
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- Figure 69: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors (Nutritional and Ingredient-based)
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- Figure 70: Nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 71: Most popular nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 72: Next popular nutritional and ingredient-based factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 73: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by most popular nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 74: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by next most popular nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 75: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors when being cake and cake bars, by most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, March 2013
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- Figure 76: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by next most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, March 2013
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- Figure 77: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
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- Figure 78: Nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors (Non-Nutritional and Ingredient-based)
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- Figure 79: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 80: Most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 81: Next most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 82: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 83: Types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by next most popular non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 84: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
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- Figure 85: Non-nutritional and ingredient-based choice factors that would influence choice of cake and cake bars, by next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Figure 86: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 87: Most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 88: Next most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 89: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 90: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by next most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, March 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Barriers to Buying Cake and Cake Bars
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- Figure 91: Barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 92: Most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 93: Next most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, by demographics, March 2013
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- Figure 94: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
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- Figure 95: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the past six months, by next most popular barriers to buying cake and cake bars, March 2013
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