Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Excluded
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Forecast
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2007-17
- Market factors
- Rising duty adds pressure on cider producers…
- …although craft producers are growing in number
- Low consumer confidence is a threat to the market…
- …while there are also threats associated with population changes
- Weather also plays a strong role in determining cider’s performance
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Strongbow still leads the way
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ market shares in value sales of cider in the off-trade, 2012
- The consumer
- Apple cider under increasing pressure from pear
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- Figure 3: Usage of different types of cider within the past six months, November 2012
- Brand name is the most important factor for users when buying cider
- High levels of enthusiasm for new innovation in the cider market
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- Figure 4: Users’ attitudes towards cider, November 2012
- Cider fares well on a number of positive associations
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can cider brands leverage product origin more effectively?
- How can fruit-flavoured cider win over older users?
- How much potential is there for boxed cider?
- How can cider improve on areas of weakness in its image?
Trend Application
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- Premiumization & Indulgence
- Fauxthenticity
- 2015: East Meets West
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Duty rises driving up retail prices
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- Figure 5: Value and volume sales of the total UK alcoholic drinks market, 2007-12
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- Figure 6: Index of price rises for wine, spirits and cider – on-trade versus off-trade, 2000-12
- Rising prices are becoming an escalating issue
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- Figure 7: UK excise duty rates for cider, beer, wine and spirits, 2003-12
- Rising prices of apples add to upward pressure on the price of cider
- Yet the craft cider market is in robust growth
- Cider can tap into a variety of occasions
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- Figure 8: Occasions for drinking in and out of the home, May 2012
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- Figure 9: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
- Brand loyalty falls as price pressures continue to bite
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- Figure 10: Trends in agreement with lifestyle statements regarding loyalty and pricing, 2008-12
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Consumer confidence remains low despite the recession ending
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- Figure 11: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-December 2012
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- Figure 12: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2008-12
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- Figure 13: Frequency of drinking in pubs/bars, May 2012
- Government focuses on a healthier population
- An ageing population is a threat to the cider market
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- Figure 14: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
- Growth in C2s set to be a major plus for the cider market
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- Figure 15: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2012-17
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Usage of many alcoholic drinks in decline
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- Figure 16: Usage of cider and competing drinks categories, in home and out of home, November 2012
- In-home drinking appeals as a cost-effective option
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Flavour innovation
- Using packaging to boost shelf standout
- Cider brands commemorate and celebrate historic events
- NPD aims to create new occasions for drinking cider
- Interesting examples of global innovation
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Cider’s value growth slows a little in 2012
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- Figure 17: UK value and volume sales of cider, 2007-17
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- Figure 18: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2007-17
- Volume sales hold up well
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- Figure 19: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Off-trade cider sales return to growth in 2012
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- Figure 20: UK value and volume sales of cider in the off-trade, 2007-17
- Figure 21: Market size and forecast for the off-trade UK cider market, by value, 2007-17
- Off-trade volume sales expected return to growth in 2012
- On-trade gains share in the cider market in 2012
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- Figure 22: UK value and volume sales of cider in the on-trade, 2007-17
- Figure 23: Market size and forecast for the on-trade UK cider market, by value, 2007-17
Market Share
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- Key points
- Strongbow continues to dominate the off-trade landscape
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- Figure 24: Value market share of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2010-12
- Other Heineken brands enjoy mixed fortunes
- Stella Cidre and Kopparberg are the shining lights in 2012…
- …with Frosty Jack’s also showing robust growth
- However, Magners finds its position under threat
- Sales of Lambrini plateau
- New wave of smaller brands flourishing
Companies and Products
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- AB InBev
- Aspall
- C&C Group
- Distell
- Heineken
- Kopparberg UK (Cider of Sweden Limited)
- Rekorderlig (Chilli Marketing)
- Westons Cider
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 25: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the cider sector, October 2012
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 26: Attitudes, by cider brand, October 2012
- Brand personality
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- Figure 27: Cider brand personality – macro image, October 2012
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- Figure 28: Cider brand personality – micro image, October 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 29: Cider brand usage, October 2012
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- Figure 30: Satisfaction with various cider brands, October 2012
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- Figure 31: Consideration of cider brands, October 2012
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- Figure 32: Consumer perceptions of current cider brand performance, October 2012
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- Figure 33: Cider brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, October 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 34: Cider brand index, October 2012
- Figure 35: Cider brand index vs. recommendation, October 2012
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 36: Target groups, October 2012
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- Figure 37: Cider brand usage, by target groups, October 2012
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend increased in 2011 and in the first ten months of 2012
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- Figure 38: Total adspend in the UK cider and perry market, 2008-12
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- Figure 39: Total adspend for beer, lager and cider multi products, 2008-12
- Responsible marketing is strictly enforced
- Two large players dominate cider advertising in 2012
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- Figure 40: Top advertisers in the cider and perry category, January-October 2012
- Figure 41: Leading advertisers in the UK cider category, 2009-12
- Two brands dominate the adspend on cider in 2012
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- Figure 42: Leading brands advertised in the UK cider category, January-October 2012
- Outdoor advertising encroaching on TV’s dominance
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- Figure 43: Advertising in the UK cider category, by media, 2009-12
- Highlighting heritage and quality to support premium credentials
- Music and festivals offer a route for brands to build identity
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Supermarkets remain the leading channel for cider sales…
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- Figure 44: Volume sales of cider, by on-trade and off-trade channels, 2009-11
- ...while the on-trade strikes back
Consumer – Usage of Cider
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- Key points
- Three in five adults are now active cider drinkers
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- Figure 45: Usage of different types of cider within the past six months, November 2012
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- Figure 46: Usage of different types of cider, in home vs out of home, November 2012
- Apple cider still leads the way
- Who drinks the different types of ciders?
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- Figure 47: Usage of the leading types of cider, by gender and age, November 2012
- Apple cider
- Pear cider
- Other fruit-flavoured ciders
- 25-34-year-olds are the key usage groups for other types of cider
- Three in ten adults drink three or more types of cider
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- Figure 48: Repertoire of purchase of different types of cider, November 2012
Consumer – Barriers to Usage
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- Key points
- Cider needs to become more ‘top of mind’
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- Figure 49: Barriers to usage among cider users, November 2012
- Summer associations may be holding the market back
- Taste also serves as a barrier to usage
- Lack of front of mind awareness and notable sweetness are the main deterrents for non-users
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- Figure 50: Barriers to usage among cider non-users, November 2012
Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Key points
- Branding leads the way when consumers buy cider
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- Figure 51: Choice factors when buying cider, November 2012
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- Figure 52: Choice factors when buying cider and beer, October/November 2012
- Price is the other main influence for cider drinkers
- Cider drinkers opening up to foreign brands
- Recommendations play a role in driving purchase for women and 18-24s
- Over-55s the most likely group to consider the cider producer
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cider
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- Key points
- High levels of enthusiasm for new innovation in the cider market
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- Figure 53: Users’ attitudes towards cider, November 2012
- Potential for cider in a keg/box to grow
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- Figure 54: Users’ attitudes towards the packaging/format of cider, November 2012
- Draught cider no longer equates to better quality for the majority
- Strong enthusiasm for ciders with adventurous flavours
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- Figure 55: Users’ attitudes towards range/flavour of cider, November 2012
- Opportunities for mulled cider to grow in popularity
- Half of cider drinkers think that British is best
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- Figure 56: Users’ attitudes towards quality comparisons of cider, November 2012
Consumer – Characteristics of Cider
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- Key points
- Cider leads the way for refreshment and natural associations
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- Figure 57: Characteristics associated with cider and other drinks, November 2012
- Cider performs strongly on a handful of other characteristics…
- …but struggles on a handful of other associations
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Four target groups
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- Figure 58: Target groups for cider, November 2012
- Explorers (32%)
- Disengaged (25%)
- Enthusiasts (24%)
- Unadventurous (19%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 59: Agreement with lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
- Figure 60: Agreement with lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 61: Usage of alcoholic drinks in the past 12 months, by demographics, 2012
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Appendix – Market Size
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- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by volume, 2012-17
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Appendix – Segment Performance
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- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the off-trade cider market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 65: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the off-trade cider market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 66: UK off-trade volume sales of cider, 2007-17
- Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the on-trade cider market, by value, 2012-17
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- Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the on-trade cider market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 69: UK on-trade volume sales of cider, 2007-17
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 70: Brand usage, October 2012
- Figure 71: Brand commitment, October 2012
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- Figure 72: Brand momentum, October 2012
- Figure 73: Brand diversity, October 2012
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- Figure 74: Brand satisfaction, October 2012
- Figure 75: Brand recommendation, October 2012
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- Figure 76: Brand attitude, October 2012
- Figure 77: Brand image – macro image, October 2012
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- Figure 78: Brand image – micro image, October 2012
- Figure 79: Profile of target groups, by demographics, October 2012
- Figure 80: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, October 2012
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- Figure 81: Brand usage, by target groups, October 2012
- Figure 82: Brand index, October 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Cider
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- Figure 83: Usage of any cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 84: Usage of apple cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 85: Usage of pear cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 86: Usage of any other fruit-flavoured cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 87: Usage of any low/non-alcoholic cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 88: Usage of mulled/warm cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 89: Usage of cider in a box and perry, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 90: Usage of any craft cider (made by a small producer), by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 91: Usage of any other cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 92: Repertoire of usage of different types of cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 93: Usage of different types of cider, by repertoire of ciders used, November 2012
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Appendix – Barriers to Usage
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- Figure 94: Barriers to usage among cider users, November 2012
- Figure 95: Most popular barriers to usage among cider users, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 96: Next most popular barriers to usage among cider users, by demographics, November 2012
- Figure 97: Barriers to usage among cider non-users, November 2012
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- Figure 98: Barriers to usage among cider non-users, by demographics, November 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Figure 99: Most popular choice factors when buying cider, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 100: Next most popular choice factors when buying cider, by demographics, November 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cider
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- Figure 101: Users' attitudes towards cider, November 2012
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- Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try many different brands and flavours of ciders’ and ‘I am open to drinking no/low-alcohol ciders’, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘I think that draught ciders taste better than bottled ones’ and ‘Own-label ciders taste as good as branded varieties’, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see a better range of craft ciders in supermarkets and pubs/restaurants’ and ‘I would like to see more mulled ciders available’, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘I expect bottled ciders to taste better than those in a can’ and ‘I am happy to pay more for premium ciders’, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be open to trying ciders with more adventurous flavours’ and ‘I think that British ciders taste better than foreign varieties’, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 107: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be interested in trying cider from a box/keg if it was of high quality’ and ‘I prefer fizzy ciders to still/cloudy varieties’, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 108: Users' attitudes towards cider, by purchase of any cider, November 2012
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- Figure 109: Users' attitudes towards cider, by most popular choice factors when buying cider, November 2012
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- Figure 110: Users' attitudes towards cider, by next most popular choice factors when buying cider, November 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Characteristics of Cider
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- Figure 111: Characteristics associated with cider, November 2012
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- Figure 112: Main characteristics associated with cider, lager, wine and RTDs among cider drinkers, November 2012
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- Figure 113: Association of ‘Refreshing’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 114: Association of ‘Summer drink’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 115: Association of ‘Sophisticated’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012,
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- Figure 116: Association of ‘Fashionable’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 117: Association of ‘Natural’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 118: Association of ‘Easy to drink’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 119: Association of ‘Suitable for men and women’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 120: Association of ‘Traditional’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 121: Association of ‘Innovative’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 122: Association of ‘Worth paying more for’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 123: Association of ‘Overrated’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 124: Characteristics associated with alcoholic drinks, by purchase of any cider, apple cider and pear cider, November 2012
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- Figure 125: Characteristics associated with alcoholic drinks, by purchase of any other fruit-flavoured cider, any low/non-alcoholic cider and mulled/warm cider, November 2012
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- Figure 126: Characteristics associated with alcoholic drinks, by purchase of cider in a box, perry and any craft cider, November 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups
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- Figure 127: Target groups, by demographics, November 2012
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- Figure 128: Purchase of different types of cider and other alcoholic drinks, by target groups, November 2012
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- Figure 129: Choice factors when buying cider, by target groups, November 2012
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- Figure 130: Users' attitudes towards cider, by target groups, November 2012
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- Figure 131: Main characteristics associated with cider and other alcoholic drinks, by target groups, November 2012
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- Figure 132: Barriers to usage among cider users, by target groups, November 2012
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