Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Fan chart of market value for fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2007-17
- Market factors
- Sluggish consumer sentiment
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- Figure 2: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-August 2012
- Rising food prices
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- Figure 3: Changes in Food Price Index, 2009-12
- Calorie disclosure legislation
- Young adult population
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- Figure 4: U.S. population by age, 2012
- Competitive context
- Food menu trends
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- Figure 5: Top five food items on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2012
- The consumer
- Fast casual restaurant usage
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- Figure 6: Fast casual restaurant usage frequency, June 2012
- Changes in fast casual restaurant usage
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- Figure 7: Changes in fast casual restaurant usage, June 2012
- Important attributes for fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 8: Important attributes for fast casual restaurants, June 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What is the fast casual service style?
- How can fast casual be more than just a lunchtime destination?
- How can technology be better utilized to boost sales?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Let’s talk about health
- Reaching new customers
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Mood to Order
- Trend: Extend My Brand
- 2015 trend: Access Anything Anywhere
- Access Anything Anywhere
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Market size insight: Unit growth drives sales
- Sales and forecast of fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 10: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fast casual restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: Fan chart of market value for fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2007-17
Market Drivers
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- Fast casual accelerating growth
- Foodservice sales take a slow progression upward
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- Figure 12: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008-July 2012
- Restaurant performance index stabilizes
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- Figure 13: Restaurant Performance Index, January 2009-July 2012
- Consumer sentiment takes one step forward, two steps back
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- Figure 14: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-August 2012
- Disposable income has shown marginal growth
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- Figure 15: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-July 2012
- Unemployment inched up
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- Figure 16: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-August 2012
- Rising food prices
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- Figure 17: Changes in food price index, 2009-12
- Government intervention to help Americans decrease health risks
- Total population growth will drive long-term sales
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- Figure 18: Population, by age, 2007-17
Competitive Context
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- Overview
- All eyes on fast casual: new competition
- Quick service restaurants upgrading to offer fast casual experience
- Casual dining players taking signature dishes to on-the-go fast casual formats
- Fine dining leveraging quality equities for a gourmet fast casual option
- More competition on the horizon
Selected Companies
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- Fazoli’s
- Corner Bakery Café
- Smashburger
- Concepts to watch
- Energy Kitchen
- Stacked
- Sushi Freak
- Garbanzo Mediterranean Grill
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- Brand awareness
- Firehouse Subs
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- Figure 19: Firehouse Subs TV ad, Hook & Ladder, July 2012
- Market positioning
- Chipotle: Eco-friendly and health
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- Figure 20: Chipotle TV ad, A Better World, February 2012
- Buffalo Wild Wings: Social and sports
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- Figure 21: Buffalo Wild Wings TV ad, Too Caught Up, June 2012 – August 2012
- New product launches
- Boston Market
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- Figure 22: Boston Market TV ad, A Real Meal, September 2012
- California Tortilla
- Value
- Moe’s Southwest Grill
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- Figure 23: Moe’s Southwest Grill TV ad, Parenthood, June 2012 – August 2012
- Taste
- Culver’s
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- Figure 24: Culver’s TV ad, Flavor of the Day, June 2012-August 2012
- Social media
Menu Analysis—The Fast Casual Food Menu
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- Key points
- Breakfast sandwiches have a growing presence on fast casual menus
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- Figure 25: Top 10 food items on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2012
- Steady increase in food items
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- Figure 26: Average price of top 10 food items on fast casual menus, by incidence and price, Q2 2009-Q2 2012
- Hot new item: Frozen custard
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- Figure 27: Top new items at fast casuals, by incidence, Q2 2012
Fast Casual Restaurant Usage
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- Key points
- Strong overall usage of fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 28: Fast casual restaurant usage frequency, June 2011 and June 2012
- Fast casual restaurants are visited often
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- Figure 29: Fast casual restaurant usage frequency, June 2012
- Young men are frequent fast casual users
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- Figure 30: Fast casual restaurant usage frequency, by gender and age, June 2012
- More-affluent consumers are drawn to fast casual
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- Figure 31: Fast casual restaurant usage frequency, by household income, June 2012
Fast Casual Restaurant Brand Usage
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- Key points
- Growth across all fast casual brands
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- Figure 32: Fast casual restaurant brand usage, June 2011 and June 2012
- Men aged 18-34 have stronger-than-average usage of all fast casual brands
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- Figure 33: Fast casual restaurant brand usage, by gender and age, June 2012
Reasons for Not Dining at Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Key points
- Eating at home the biggest “competition” for fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 34: Reasons for not dining at fast casual, June 2011 and June 2012
- Less-affluent consumers think fast casual restaurants are too expensive
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- Figure 35: Reasons for not dining at fast casual, by household income, June 2012
Changes in Fast Casual Restaurant Usage
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- Key points
- More fast casual users are cooking at home this year
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- Figure 36: Changes in fast casual restaurant usage, June 2012
- Behavior shifts among women aged 18-34 damaging for fast casual
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- Figure 37: Changes in fast casual restaurant usage, by gender and age, June 2012
- Middle-income earners cooking at home and using coupons
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- Figure 38: Changes in fast casual restaurant usage, by household income, June 2012
- High-frequency fast casual users use coupons more this year
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- Figure 39: Changes in fast casual restaurant usage, by total frequency, June 2012
Important Attributes for Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Key points
- Quality and taste paramount in restaurant selection
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- Figure 40: Important attributes for fast casual restaurants, June 2012
- Kid-friendly atmosphere/menu important to women aged 18-54
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- Figure 41: Important attributes for fast casual restaurants, by gender and age, June 2012
- Affluent fast casual users favor freshness
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- Figure 42: Important attributes for fast casual restaurants, by household income, June 2012
- Speed of service significantly more important to frequent fast casual restaurant users
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- Figure 43: Important attributes for fast casual restaurants, by total frequency, June 2012
Attitudes of the Fast Casual Consumer
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- Key points
- Fast casual compared to fast food
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, June 2011 and June 2012
- Women aged 35-54 more likely to favor fast casual for quality and health
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, by gender and age, June 2012
- More-affluent fast casual users agree fast casual is healthier than fast food
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- Figure 46: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, by household income, June 2012
- High-frequency users agree fast casual is healthier and a better value than fast food
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- Figure 47: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, by total frequency, June 2012
- Fast casual compared to casual dining
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, June 2012
- Men younger than 35 perceive fast casual as a better value and healthier
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- Figure 49: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, by gender and age, June 2012
- High-frequency fast casual users agree fast casual is healthier than casual dining
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- Figure 50: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, by total frequency, June 2012
- Majority of fast casual users think of it as a lunch destination
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- Figure 51: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, June 2012
- Users younger than 35 consider fast casual for lunchtime dining
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- Figure 52: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by gender and age, June 2012
- Less-affluent fast casual users say these restaurants are too expensive for regular use
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by household income, June 2012
Fast Casual Valuable Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Fast casual users still want coupons by mail
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- Figure 54: Marketing effectiveness at fast casual restaurants, June 2011 and June 2012
- Fast casual’s core audience receptive to digital marketing efforts
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- Figure 55: Marketing effectiveness at fast casual restaurants, by gender and age, June 2012
- Integrated loyalty rewards/social media strategies needed
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- Figure 56: Marketing effectiveness at fast casual restaurants, by total frequency, June 2012
Correspondence Analysis
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- Methodology
- Perceptions of better quality lead to better sales
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- Figure 57: Fast casual restaurants correspondence analysis, June 2012
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- Figure 58: Fast casual brand attributes, June 2012
Appendix—Trade Associations
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