Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Forecast
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of dark spirits, 2007-17
- Market factors
- Pressure on incomes leads to growing popularity of in-home drinking
- Premium goods fall from favour
- Low consumer confidence tempers optimism
- Population changes are mostly likely to be positive to the dark spirits market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Bell’s continues to hold the greatest share of off-trade sales
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- Figure 2: Value market shares of top-selling dark spirits brands in the off-trade, 2011
- Innovation continues to be prevalent in the dark spirits market
- Above-the-line adspend remains relatively flat
- The consumer
- Single malts and blends remain the most popular but bourbon is growing
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- Figure 3: Types of dark spirits used, May 2012
- Whisky is a popular drink for many occasions
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- Figure 4: Occasions for drinking dark spirits, May 2012
- Recommendations key to encouraging usage of dark spirits
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- Figure 5: Users' attitudes towards dark spirits, May 2012
- Whisky users prefer traditional designs
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- Figure 6: Packaging features influencing choice of dark spirits, May 2012
- Non-usage continues to be driven by whisky sceptics
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- Figure 7: Barriers to usage of dark spirits, May 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can whisky attract more female users?
- Where next for dark and golden rum?
- What are the key opportunities for brandy /Cognac?
- How can the dark spirits market reduce its dependence on promotions?
Trend Application
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- Edutainment
- Secret Secret
- 2015: East Meets West
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Rising pressures in the UK alcoholic drinks market
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- Figure 8: Value sales of the total UK alcoholic drinks market, 2007-12
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- Figure 9: Annual price index (RPI) of beer and wine and spirits, in the off-trade and on-trade, 2006-11
- Two in five adult drinkers drink alcohol at least twice a week
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- Figure 10: Frequency of drinking alcohol, May 2012
- Almost half of adults are monthly visitors to pubs/bars
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- Figure 11: Frequency of drinking in pubs/bars, May 2012
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- Figure 12: Trends in consumption of alcohol, in home versus out of home in the past 12 months, 2007-11
- Premium goods under threat but dark spirits may thrive
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- Figure 13: Agreement with lifestyle statements regarding premium products, 2007-11
- Loyalty takes a turn for the worse
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- Figure 14: Agreement with lifestyle statements regarding brand loyalty and experimentation, 2007-11
- Healthy attitudes on the rise
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- Figure 15: Agreement with lifestyle statements regarding drinking and health, 2007-11
- Dark spirits as an all-year-round rather than seasonal drink
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Consumer confidence remains fragile
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- Figure 16: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-July 2012
- Demographic changes present opportunities but also threats
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- Figure 17: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
- ABs and C2s hold the key to growth
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- Figure 18: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2012-17
- Uncertainty surrounds the introduction of minimum pricing
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Usage of many alcoholic drinks continues to wane
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- Figure 19: Trends in drink types consumed in the past 12 months, 2007-11
- In-home drinking comes to the fore
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- Figure 20: Trends in drink types consumed in the past 12 months in home and out of home, 2009-11
- Figure 21: Drinking alcohol amongst the population, by gender, age and socio-economic group, 2011
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Flavours and infusions feature prominently in NPD
- Heritage and history are central to whisky NPD
- Cognac cocktails
- Standout packaging is key to boosting shelf appeal
- International dark spirits on the rise
- Selected global examples in the dark spirits market
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Dark spirits sales set to grow strongly
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- Figure 22: UK value and volume sales of dark spirits, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
- Figure 23: Forecast of UK value sales of dark spirits, 2007-17
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- Figure 24: Forecast of UK volume sales of dark spirits, 2007-17
- Whisky enjoys a renaissance in 2012
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- Figure 25: UK value and volume sales of whiskies, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
- Forecast for whisky
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- Figure 26: Forecast of UK value sales of whiskies, 2007-17
- Brandy and Cognac expected to show signs of growth in 2012
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- Figure 27: UK value and volume sales of brandy/Cognac, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
- Forecast for brandy/Cognac
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- Figure 28: Forecast of UK value sales of brandy/Cognac, 2007-17
- Golden potential for dark/golden rum
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- Figure 29: UK value and volume sales of dark/golden rum, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
- Forecast for dark/golden rum
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- Figure 30: Forecast of UK value sales of dark/golden rum, 2007-17
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- On-trade success expected to fuel the growth of whisky in 2012
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- Figure 31: UK value sales of dark spirits in the on- and off-trade, 2009-12
- Figure 32: UK volume sales of dark spirits in the on- and off-trade, 2009-12
- Bright future for golden/dark rum
- Brandy/Cognac shows minimal overall growth
- Emerging markets can fuel growth
Market Share
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- Key points
- Many dark spirits brands enjoy strong growth in 2011
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- Figure 33: Trends for market share in value for top-selling dark spirits brands in the off-trade, 2009-11
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- Figure 34: Retail prices of selected dark spirits, per 70cl bottle, July 2012
- Whisky brands find growth at the top and low tiers
- Brandy/Cognac sales hold up in the off-trade
- Captain Morgan’s leads the rum charge
Companies and Products
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- Brown-Forman
- Diageo
- First Drinks
- LVMH
- Maxxium
- Pernod Ricard
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 35: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the dark spirits sector, June 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 36: Attitudes, by dark spirits brand, June 2012
- Brand personality
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- Figure 37: Dark spirits brand personality – macro image, June 2012
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- Figure 38: Dark spirits brand personality – micro image, June 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 39: Dark spirits brand usage, June 2012
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- Figure 40: Satisfaction with various dark spirits brands, June 2012
- Figure 41: Consideration of dark spirits brands, June 2012
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- Figure 42: Consumer perceptions of current dark spirits brand performance, June 2012
- Figure 43: Dark spirit brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, July 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 44: Dark spirits brand index, June 2012
- Figure 45: Dark spirits brand index vs. recommendation, June 2012
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 46: Target groups, June 2012
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- Figure 47: Dark spirit brand usage, by target groups, June 2012
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Dark spirits advertising spend declines in 2011
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- Figure 48: Total adspend for dark spirits, 2008-12
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- Figure 49: Total adspend for dark spirits, by segment, 2008-12
- Jack Daniel’s dominates advertising in the market
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- Figure 50: Top-spending dark spirits brands in above-the-line marketing, 2011
- Focus on Whisky
- Focus on Dark/Golden Rum
- Focus on Cognac/Brandy
- Press re-establishes itself as the preferred advertising medium
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- Figure 51: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK dark spirits market, by media type, 2008-12
- Targeting new consumers
- Innovative brand promotion strategies
- Responsible drinking campaigns gain prevalence
- A potential threat on the horizon…
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- On-trade sales of dark spirits jumps ahead
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- Figure 52: UK value sales of dark spirits in the on- and off-trade, 2009-12 (£m)
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- Figure 53: UK volume sales of dark spirits in the on- and off-trade, 2009-12
- Grocery multiples make further progress
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- Figure 54: Value sales within the off- and on-trade channels for the total dark spirits market, 2010-12
- Online continues to forge a niche channel for sales
Consumer – Trends in Usage
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- Key points
- Whisky set for a renaissance
- Non-malt Scotch whisky driven by the in-home market
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- Figure 55: Frequency of usage of Scotch whisky (other than malts) among users in home and out of home, 2011
- Malt whiskies reliant on male users
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- Figure 56: Frequency of usage of malt whisky among users in home and out of home, 2011
- Men and under-35s dominate the bourbon and other whiskies landscape
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- Figure 57: Frequency of usage of other whiskey and bourbon among users in home and out of home, 2011
- Dark/golden rum proves particularly popular for home drinking
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- Figure 58: Frequency of usage of dark/golden rum among users in home and out of home, 2011
- Brandy attracting a new wave of users
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- Figure 59: Frequency of usage of brandy, Cognac, Armagnac and Calvados among users in home and out of home, 2011
Consumer – Types of Dark Spirits Used
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- Key points
- Whisky remains the most popular type of dark spirit
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- Figure 60: Types of dark spirits used, May 2012
- Blends and single malts drive the whisky market…
- …with bourbon/Tennessee whiskey appealing to younger drinkers
- Dark/Golden/Spiced rum continues to attract new users
- Brandy, Cognac and Armagnac yet to gain traction
- 45% of adults do not drink dark spirits
- Single-use repertoires pose a problem for the market
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- Figure 61: Repertoire of types of dark spirits used, May 2012
Consumer – Usage of Dark Spirits by Occasion
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- Key points
- Whisky is a popular drink for many occasions
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- Figure 62: Occasions for drinking dark spirits, May 2012
- Rum increasingly seen as a ‘good time’ drink
- Brandy seen as a sophisticated but staid drink
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Dark Spirits
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- Key points
- Recommendations key to boosting usage of dark spirits
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- Figure 63: Users' attitudes towards dark spirits, May 2012
- Dark spirits users are open to trying new drinks but need an incentive
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- Figure 64: Users' attitudes towards usage of dark spirits, May 2012
- Recommendation is a key driver of trial
- Packaging and flavourings can pique users’ interest
- Three in five dark spirits users see whisky as sophisticated and refined
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- Figure 65: Users' attitudes towards the image and enjoyment of dark spirits, May 2012
- Under-35s are most open to reassessing their drinks choices
- Educating consumers would help the market
- Marked openness to own-brand
- Mixability remains a key feature of the market
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- Figure 66: Users' attitudes towards drinking dark spirits with a mixer, May 2012
Consumer – Visual Appeal of Dark Spirits Packaging
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- Key points
- Packaging plays a marked role in drinks choice
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- Figure 67: Attitudes towards dark spirits packaging, May 2012
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Dark Spirits Packaging
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- Key points
- A broad range of factors influence dark spirits users
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- Figure 68: Packaging features influencing choice of drink, May 2012
- Bottle shape and material are notable factors in shaping preferences
- Excitement vs sophistication
- Other packaging characteristics are more niche considerations
Consumer – Barriers To Usage
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- Key points
- Non-usage continues to be driven by taste preferences
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- Figure 69: Barriers to usage of dark spirits, May 2012
- Over half of non-users do not like the taste of whisky
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- Figure 70: agreement with the statement ‘I do not like the taste of whisky’ among non-users, and usage of any whisky, by gender and age, May 2012
- Gifting and competition with white spirits also hindering market growth
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Four target groups
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- Figure 71: Target groups for dark spirits, May 2012
- Mixers (34%)
- Whisky Lovers (24%)
- Habituals (23%)
- Adventurers (19%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 72: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding premium products, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 73: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding premium products, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 74: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding premium products, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 75: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding premium products, by usage of dark spirits, 2011
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Appendix – Competitive Context
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- Figure 76: Trends in drink types consumed in the past 12 months, 2007-11
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 77: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total dark spirits market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 78: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total dark spirits market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 79: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the whisky market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 80: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the whisky market, by volume, 2012-17
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- Figure 81: Forecast of UK volume sales of whisky, 2007-17
- Figure 82: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Cognac/brandy market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 83: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Cognac/brandy market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 84: Forecast of UK volume sales of Cognac/brandy, 2007-17
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- Figure 85: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the golden/dark rum market, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 86: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the golden/dark rum market, by volume, 2012-17
- Figure 87: Forecast of UK volume sales of golden/dark rum, 2007-17
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 88: Brand usage, June 2012
- Figure 89: Brand commitment, June 2012
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- Figure 90: Brand momentum, June 2012
- Figure 91: Brand diversity, June 2012
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- Figure 92: Brand satisfaction, June 2012
- Figure 93: Brand recommendation, June 2012
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- Figure 94: Brand attitude, June 2012
- Figure 95: Brand image – macro image, June 2012
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- Figure 96: Brand image – micro image, June 2012
- Figure 97: Profile of target groups, by demographics, June 2012
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- Figure 98: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, June 2012
- Figure 99: Brand usage, by target group, June 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 100: Brand index, June 2012
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Appendix – Channels to Market
Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Usage
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- Figure 101: Frequency of drinking Scotch whisky (other than malt), 2007-11
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- Figure 102: Frequency of drinking Scotch whisky (other than malt), by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 103: Frequency of drinking Scotch whisky (other than malt) in home, 2007-11
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- Figure 104: Frequency of drinking Scotch whisky (other than malt) in home, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 105: Frequency of drinking Scotch whisky (other than malt) elsewhere, 2007-11
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- Figure 106: Frequency of drinking Scotch whisky (other than malt) elsewhere, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 107: Frequency of drinking malt whisky, 2007-11
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- Figure 108: Frequency of drinking malt whisky, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 109: Frequency of drinking malt whisky in home, 2007-11
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- Figure 110: Frequency of drinking malt whisky in home, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 111: Frequency of drinking malt whisky elsewhere, 2007-11
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- Figure 112: Frequency of drinking malt whisky elsewhere, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 113: Frequency of drinking other whisky and bourbon, 2007-11
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- Figure 114: Frequency of drinking other whisky and bourbon, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 115: Frequency of drinking other whisky and bourbon in home, 2007-11
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- Figure 116: Frequency of drinking other whisky and bourbon in home, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 117: Frequency of drinking other whisky and bourbon elsewhere, 2007-11
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- Figure 118: Frequency of drinking other whisky and bourbon elsewhere, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 119: Frequency of drinking dark and golden rum, 2007-11
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- Figure 120: Frequency of drinking dark and golden rum, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 121: Frequency of drinking dark and golden rum in home, 2007-11
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- Figure 122: Frequency of drinking dark and golden rum in home, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 123: Frequency of drinking dark and golden rum elsewhere, 2007-11
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- Figure 124: Frequency of drinking dark and golden rum elsewhere, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 125: Frequency of drinking brandy, Cognac, Armagnac and Calvados, 2007-11
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- Figure 126: Frequency of drinking brandy, Cognac, Armagnac and Calvados, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 127: Frequency of drinking brandy, Cognac, Armagnac and Calvados in home, 2007-11
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- Figure 128: Frequency of drinking brandy, Cognac, Armagnac and Calvados in home, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 129: Frequency of drinking brandy, Cognac, Armagnac and Calvados elsewhere, 2007-11
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- Figure 130: Frequency of drinking brandy, Cognac, Armagnac and Calvados elsewhere, by demographics, 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Types of Dark Spirits Used
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- Figure 131: Types of dark spirits used, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 132: Types of dark spirits used, by demographics, May 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 133: Repertoire for types of dark spirits used, by demographics, May 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Dark Spirits by Occasion
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- Figure 134: Occasions for drinking dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 135: Occasions for drinking dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 136: Occasions for drinking dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Dark Spirits
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- Figure 137: Users' attitudes towards dark spirits, May 2012
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- Figure 138: Agreement with the statements ‘I would try a new type/flavour if recommended by a friend/family member/barman’ and ‘Whisky is a sophisticated and refined drink’, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 139: Agreement with the statements ‘I am only interested in drinking dark spirits with a mixer (eg with coke)’ and ‘Whisky should be drunk neat and without a mixer’, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 140: Agreement with the statements ‘I am thinking more about my choice of dark spirits as I get older’ and ‘I would try a new type of dark spirit based on the packaging (eg label or bottle shape)’, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 141: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be interested in trying drinks with new flavourings or spices (eg popcorn-infused rum)’ and ‘I am more likely to try a new type of dark spirit if it is flavoured (eg with vanilla)’, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 142: Agreement with the statements ‘Own-label options are as good as branded equivalents’ and ‘I do not understand what terms such as blended and single malt mean in whisky’, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 143: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see more ready-mixed drinks (eg whisky and coke in a can) available’ and ‘I would only drink them on special occasions such as Christmas’, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 144: Users' attitudes towards dark spirits, by types of dark spirits used, May 2012
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- Figure 145: Users' attitudes towards dark spirits, by types of dark spirits used, May 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Visual Appeal of Dark Spirits Packaging
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- Figure 146: Attitudes towards dark spirits packaging, May 2012
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- Figure 147: Attitudes towards the packaging of dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 148: Attitudes towards the packaging of dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Dark Spirits Packaging
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- Figure 149: Packaging features influencing choice of dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 150: Packaging features influencing choice of dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 151: Packaging features influencing choice of dark spirits, by attitudes towards dark spirits packaging, May 2012
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- Figure 152: Packaging features influencing choice of dark spirits, by attitudes towards dark spirits packaging, May 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Barriers to Usage
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- Figure 153: Barriers to usage of dark spirits, by demographics, May 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups
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- Figure 154: Target groups, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 155: Types of dark spirits used, by target groups, May 2012
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- Figure 156: Occasions for drinking dark spirits, by target groups, May 2012
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- Figure 157: Users’ attitudes towards dark spirits, by target groups, May 2012
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- Figure 158: Grocery shopping habits, by target groups, May 2012
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