Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Issues in the Market
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- To what extent has the low cost model permeated consumer travel attitudes?
- What is the potential impact of fare increases on people’s flying behaviour?
- Will aviation lose market share to other travel modes?
- Are environmental concerns likely to have any effect on consumer flying behaviour?
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted, 2007-17
- Uplift in volume
- Market factors
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- Figure 2: Visits abroad by UK residents (000s), 2006-11
- Regional troubles
- Kerosene concerns
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- Figure 3: Kerosene-type jet fuel monthly average spot price and USD: GBP monthly average spot exchange rate, Jan 2006-Mar 2012
- Charging controversy
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Budget carriers lead market
- Full-service consolidation
- Jet2.com/BA Cityflyer growing fastest
- Low cost reservations
- Virgin gets touchy-feely
- No kids all the way to Kuala
- In the zone
- High tech
- The consumer
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- Figure 4: Flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Two thirds have flown in past three years
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- Figure 5: Type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
- The right to choose
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- Figure 6: Most important extras when flying on journeys under four hours, April 2012
- Figure 7: Most important extras when flying on journeys over four hours, April 2012
- Price must be right
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- Figure 8: Most important factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
- A quarter have cut back
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- Figure 9: Changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012
- Consumers divided over frills
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards air travel, April 2012
- Hassled over-55s
- What we think
Future Opportunities
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- Trend: Many Mes
- Trend: Life Hacking
- 2015 East Meets West
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Holiday travel still in doldrums
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- Figure 11: Visits abroad by UK residents, 2006-11
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- Figure 12: Air travel in the last 12 months, 2007-11
- Frequent fliers take larger share
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- Figure 13: Number of air journeys per year, 2007-11
- Big two airports bounce back
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- Figure 14: Passenger traffic, by airport, 2006-11
- Regional decline
- Airport future uncertain
- Long-haul slump
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- Figure 15: Overseas journeys (all purposes), by region, 2006-11
- Figure 16: Most popular overseas travel destinations for UK residents, 2006-11
- Taxing matters
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- Figure 17: Air Passenger Duty, as of April 2012
- Hedging bets
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- Figure 18: Kerosene-type jet fuel monthly average spot price and USD:GBP monthly average spot exchange rate, Jan 2006-Mar 2012
- Dream on
- Carbon trading
- Ancillary affairs
- Super complaint
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Household consumption falls
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- Figure 19: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q1 2012
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- Figure 20: UK Consumer Confidence Index, July 2011-June 2012
- Age polarisation
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- Figure 21: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
- C2 growth may help charter
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- Figure 22: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
- Pound stages partial recovery
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- Figure 23: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2007 -12
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Sea/tunnel share rises
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- Figure 24: All overseas visits by air, sea and tunnel – volume, 2006-11
- Figure 25: Percentage share of all overseas visits, by travel mode, 2006-11
- Tunnel boost
- Megabus move
- Domestic niche
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- Figure 26: Main method of transport used for overnight trips in Great Britain, 2010-11
- Figure 27: Transport used on longest part of journey in UK, 2006-10
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- No kidding
- In the mood
- Olympian heights
- Live telly in the sky
- Nervous disposition discounts
- Carbon reduction
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Return to growth
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- Figure 28: Passengers uplifted, 2007-17
- Forecast
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- Figure 29: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted, 2007-17
- Figure 30: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted – international, 2007-17
- Figure 31: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted – domestic, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Hols account for two thirds of air trips
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- Figure 32: Volume of UK residents’ air trips abroad, by purpose, 2006-11
- Figure 33: Volume of UK resident’s air trips abroad, by purpose, % breakdown, 2006-11
- Heavy charter decline
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- Figure 34: Passengers uplifted, scheduled vs. non-scheduled flights, 2006-11
- Budget sector outperforms market
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- Figure 35: Total passengers uplifted by UK airlines, low cost and full-service, 2006-11
Market Share
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- Key points
- easyJet is largest UK airline…
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- Figure 36: Top 10 UK-based airlines, by passengers uplifted globally, 2006-11
- … but Ryanair carries most UK passengers
- Expansion plans
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- Figure 37: Number of active aircraft, by airline, 2010-11
Companies and Products
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- Ryanair
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- Figure 38: Key financials for Ryanair, 2011-12
- easyJet
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- Figure 39: Key financials for easyJet PLC, 2010-11
- British Airways
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- Figure 40: Key financials for IAG – British Airways (British Airways), 2010-11
- Thomson Airways
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- Figure 41: Key financials for TUI PLC (Thomson Airways), 2010-11
- Thomas Cook Airlines
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- Figure 42: Key financials for Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK & Ireland, India and Middle East segment, 2010-11
- Flybe
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- Figure 43: Key financials for Flybe, 2010-11
- Monarch Airlines
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- Figure 44: Key financials for Monarch Airlines, 2009-10
- British Midland International
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- Figure 45: Key financials for Lufthansa – British Midland (British Midland International), 2010-11
- Virgin Atlantic Airways
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- Figure 46: Key financials for Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd, 2010-11
- Jet2.com
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- Figure 47: Key financials for Dart Group PLC (Jet Group), 2010-11
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 48: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the airline sector, May 2012
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 49: Attitudes, by airline brand, May 2012
- Brand personality
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- Figure 50: Airline brand personality – macro image, May 2012
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- Figure 51: Airline brand personality – micro image, May 2012
- Brand experience
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- Figure 52: Airline brand usage, May 2012
- Figure 53: Satisfaction with various airline brands, May 2012
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- Figure 54: Consideration of airline brands, May 2012
- Figure 55: Consumer perceptions of current airline brand performance, May 2012
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- Figure 56: Airline brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, May 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 57: Airline brand index, May 2012
- Figure 58: Airline brand index vs. recommendation, May 2012
- Brand target group analysis
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- Figure 59: Brand target groups, May 2012
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- Figure 60: Airline brand usage, by target groups, May 2012
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Experience of Flying
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- Key points
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- Figure 61: Flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Income is main factor
Type of Flight Taken
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- Key points
- Four in ten fliers flew budget on last trip
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- Figure 62: Type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
Optional Extras
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- Key points
- Seat selection rises in popularity
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- Figure 63: Most important extras when flying, April 2012
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- Figure 64: Most important extras when flying for under four hours, December 2009-April 2012
- Figure 65: Most important extras when flying for over four hours, December 2009-April 2012
- Over-55s crave more space
Reasons for Selecting Airline
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- Key points
- Three quarters of fliers select on price
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- Figure 66: Most important factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
- Reputation important for long-haul
Changes in Air Travel Behaviour
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- Key points
- A quarter of fliers have cut back
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- Figure 67: Changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012
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- Figure 68: Changes in air travel behaviour, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Empty nesters have cut back the least
Anticipated Impact of Fare Increases on Flying
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- Key points
- Rises may be last straw for disgruntled fliers
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- Figure 69: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, April 2012
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- Figure 70: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
Attitudes Towards Flying
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- Key points
- Price is key but experience still matters
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- Figure 71: Attitudes towards air travel, April 2012
- Age splits
- Green gap
- Lapsed fliers go slow
Targeting Opportunities
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- Key points
- Target groups
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- Figure 72: Airlines target groups, April 2012
- Budget Babes
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
- Thrills And Frills
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
- Fear Of Flying
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
- Necessary Evil
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
- The Unconcerned
- Demographic profile
- Marketing message
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 73: All passengers uplifted, market volume and forecast, best and worst case scenarios, 2012-17
- Figure 74: All passengers uplifted – international, market volume and forecast, best and worst case scenarios, 2012-17
- Figure 75: All passengers uplifted – domestic, market volume and forecast, best and worst case scenarios, 2012-17
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 76: Brand usage, May 2012
- Figure 77: Brand commitment, May 2012
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- Figure 78: Brand momentum, May 2012
- Figure 79: Brand diversity, May 2012
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- Figure 80: Brand satisfaction, May 2012
- Figure 81: Brand recommendation, May 2012
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- Figure 82: Brand attitude, May 2012
- Figure 83: Brand image – macro image, May 2012
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- Figure 84: Brand image – micro image, May 2012
- Figure 85: Profile of brand target groups, by demographics, May 2012
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- Figure 86: Psychographic segmentation by target group, May 2012
- Figure 87: Brand usage, by target group, May 2012
- Brand index
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- Figure 88: Brand index, May 2012
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Appendix – Experience of Flying
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- Figure 89: Flights taken in the past three years, by demographics, April 2012
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Appendix – Type of Flight Taken
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- Figure 90: Type of flight taken for last trip, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Figure 91: type of flight taken for last trip, by demographics, April 2012
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- Figure 92: type of flight taken for last trip, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Optional Extras
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- Figure 93: Most important extras when flying, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Figure 94: Most important extras when flying, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
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- Figure 95: Most important extras when flying, by type of flight taken for last trip (cont.), April 2012
- Figure 96: Most popular extras when flying less than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
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- Figure 97: Next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
- Figure 98: Other extras when flying less than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
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- Figure 99: Most popular extras when flying more than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
- Figure 100: Next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
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- Figure 101: Other extras when flying more than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
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Appendix – Reasons for Selecting Airline
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- Figure 102: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Figure 103: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
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- Figure 104: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by type of flight taken for last trip (cont.), April 2012
- Figure 105: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 106: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 107: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by other extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 108: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 109: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 110: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by other extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 111: Most popular factors in choosing an airline, by demographics, April 2012
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- Figure 112: Next most popular factors in choosing an airline, by demographics, April 2012
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Appendix – Changes in Air Travel Behaviour
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- Figure 113: Changes in air travel behaviour, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Figure 114: Changes in air travel behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
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- Figure 115: Changes in air travel behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012 (continued)
- Figure 116: Changes in air travel behaviour, by most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 117: Changes in air travel behaviour, by next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 118: Changes in air travel behaviour, by other extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 119: Changes in air travel behaviour, by most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 120: Changes in air travel behaviour, by next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 121: Changes in air travel behaviour, by other extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 122: Most popular changes in air travel behaviour, by demographics, April 2012
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- Figure 123: Next most popular changes in air travel behaviour, by demographics, April 2012
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Appendix – Anticipated Impact of Fare Increases on Flying
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- Figure 124: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Figure 125: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
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- Figure 126: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012 (continued)
- Figure 127: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by demographics, April 2012
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Appendix – Attitudes Towards Flying
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- Figure 128: Attitudes towards air travel, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
- Figure 129: Attitudes towards air travel, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
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- Figure 130: Attitudes towards air travel, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
- Figure 131: Attitudes towards air travel, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 132: Attitudes towards air travel, by most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 133: Attitudes towards air travel, by next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 134: Attitudes towards air travel, by other extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 135: Attitudes towards air travel, by most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 136: Attitudes towards air travel, by next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
- Figure 137: Attitudes towards air travel, by other extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
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- Figure 138: Attitudes towards air travel, by most popular factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
- Figure 139: Attitudes towards air travel, by next most popular factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
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- Figure 140: Attitudes towards air travel, by changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012
- Figure 141: Attitudes towards air travel, by changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 142: Attitudes towards air travel, by expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, April 2012
- Figure 143: Agreement with most popular statements, by demographics, April 2012
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- Figure 144: Agreement with next most popular statements, by demographics, April 2012
- Figure 145: Agreement with next most popular statements, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
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Appendix – Targeting Opportunities
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- Figure 146: Flights taken in the past three years, by target groups, April 2012
- Figure 147: Type of flight taken for last trip, by target groups, April 2012
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- Figure 148: Most important extras when flying, by target groups, April 2012
- Figure 149: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by target groups, April 2012
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- Figure 150: Changes in air travel behaviour, by target groups, April 2012
- Figure 151: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by target groups, April 2012
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- Figure 152: Attitudes towards air travel, by target groups, April 2012
- Figure 153: Target groups, by demographics, April 2012
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