Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market and forecast
- A post-recession shift in buying patterns has hurt pizza at retail
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2006-16
- Market shaped by frozen pizza; take-and-bake pizza is small but growing
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- Figure 2: Dollar sales change of pizza at retail, at current prices, by segment, 2007-16
- Market factors
- The aging American population creates challenges for pizza at retail
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- Figure 3: Percentage change in U.S. population, by age groups, 2006-16
- Decline in households with children could also slow sales
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- Figure 4: Households with and without presence of children, by percentage of total, 2001-11
- Multicultural groups are forecast to grow at a faster rate than whites, total population
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- Figure 5: Population percent change, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Companies, brands, and innovations
- Top two companies see declines; private label and smaller brands grow
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- Figure 6: Selected Manufacturer FDMx share of sales of pizza at retail, 2011*
- Innovation slows as new product introductions drop
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- Figure 7: Frozen pizza introductions, 2007-11
- The consumer
- Pizza consumption declines with age
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- Figure 8: Household consumption of pizza, by types eaten, March 2012
- Quality is important; brand loyalty not as strong; private label seen by many as comparable to brands
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- Figure 9: Top five attitudes toward pizza, by age, March 2012
- Customization of toppings plays an important role when choosing pizza
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- Figure 10: Top five important brand, preparation, and ingredient attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
- “Natural” and “organic” not necessarily associated with pizza
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- Figure 11: Top five important health-related attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can pizza manufacturers increase consumption?
- Could take-and-bake pizza become more of a threat to frozen pizza?
- What impact could private label have on overall pizza sales?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Meet the opportunity to market healthier pizza for kids
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- Figure 12: Parents' behaviors toward children's health and nutrition—any agree, by gender, March 2012
- Capitalize on frozen pizza’s popularity as a snack
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- Figure 13: Pizza usage occasions—frozen pizza, by age, March 2012
- Figure 14: Pizza usage occasions—takeout or delivery pizza, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 15: Pizza usage occasions—refrigerated pizza, by age, March 2012
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Who are the Joneses
- Trend: Simple Balance for Health
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Pizza at retail trails pizza restaurants as the economy improves
- Future sales dependent on demographic shifts, restaurant performance, and product innovation
- Sales and forecast of pizza at retail
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- Figure 16: Total U.S. sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 17: Total U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at Inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 18: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2006-16
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Fragile economic climate still keeps consumers cautious in spending
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slowly increasing, but not steady yet
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- Figure 19: Consumer sentiment, January 2007- March 2012
- Unemployment decreasing, but underemployment still high
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- Figure 20: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-May 2012
- DPI slowly increasing, while food prices expected to rise
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- Figure 21: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-April 2012
- Volatile commodity prices depress operating margins
- Coupon distribution remains high, fostering price consciousness
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- Figure 22: Total U.S. consumer packaged goods (CPG) coupons distributed, 2006-11
- Changes in household composition present opportunity
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- Figure 23: Population, by age, 2006-16
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- Figure 24: Households, by presence of children younger than 18, 2001-11
- Childhood obesity—highest in decades and not bound to slow down
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- Figure 25: Prevalence of obesity among children/teens aged 2-19, 1976-2008
- Multicultural groups remain important for pizza at retail
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- Figure 26: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Figure 27: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
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- Figure 28: Consumption and frequency of eating frozen pizza in the past 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
- Figure 29: Average number of children in household, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
- Recovering more quickly, foodservice takes share from retail
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- Figure 30: National Restaurant Association Performance Index, January 2009-April 2012
- Figure 31: U.S. eating & drinking place sales, January 2008–April 2012
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Pizza restaurants are becoming more aggressive marketers
- Pizza chains are keeping prices in check
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- Figure 32: Pizza menu pricing at restaurants, by quarter, 2009-12
- Pizza chains are improving product quality
- Restaurants are being more imaginative with products
- New technology is improving takeout service speed, communication
- The competition is getting organized
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Frozen pizza shapes the overall market
- Total U.S. sales of pizza at retail, by segment
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- Figure 33: Total U.S. sales of pizza at retail, by segment, 2011-12
Segment Performance—Frozen Pizza
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- Key points
- Consumer frugality and brand ownership changes have taken their toll
- Frozen pizza has failed to match takeout/delivery on innovations
- Sales and forecast of frozen pizza
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- Figure 34: Sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Refrigerated Pizza Crust/Dough, Kits
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- Key points
- Refrigerated pizza has been on a roller coaster ride
- Sales and forecast of refrigerated pizza crust/dough, kits
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- Figure 35: Sales and forecast of refrigerated pizza crust/dough, kits at current prices, 2006 -16
- Figure 36: Behaviors toward personal health and nutrition —any agree, by age, March 2012
Segment Performance—Shelf-stable Pizza Kits, Pizza Sauces, and Crusts
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- Key points
- The segment is small, but growing nicely
- Small brands are fueling the segment’s growth
- Sales/forecast of shelf-stable pizza kits, pizza sauces, and crusts
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- Figure 37: Sales and forecast of shelf-stable pizza kits, pizza sauces, and crusts, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Take-and-Bake Pizza
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- Key points
- Take-and-bake sales have risen through the recession
- The category has new products, but needs innovation
- Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza
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- Figure 38: Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza, at current prices, 2006-16
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets rule, but don’t rise
- Sales of pizza at retail, by channel
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- Figure 39: Sales of pizza at retail, by channel, 2011 and 2012
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets are losing the battle with takeout/delivery
- Supermarket sales of pizza at retail
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- Figure 40: Supermarket sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Supercenters and Warehouse Clubs
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- Key points
- Supercenters have lost their sales momentum
- Supercenters, warehouse clubs sales of pizza at retail
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- Figure 41: Supercenters, warehouse clubs sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Drug Stores
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- Key points
- Drug stores have the prescription for pizza sales growth
- Drug stores sales of pizza at retail
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- Figure 42: Drug stores sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Other Channel
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- Key points
- Convenience stores are focused on ready-to-eat pizza, not frozen
- Other sales of pizza at retail
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- Figure 43: Other sales of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2007-12
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- The Kraft-Nestlé deal changed the market
- Manufacturer sales of pizza at retail
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- Figure 44: Manufacturer FDMx sales of pizza at retail, 2010* and 2011*
- Consumer attitudes boost private label, promote brand hopping
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- Figure 45: Private label FDMx sales, market share, 2010*-11*
Brand Share—Frozen Pizza
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- Key points
- Frozen pizza falters as the top brands decline
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- Figure 46: Consumption of frozen pizza, by age, October 2010-November 2011
- Purchase drivers for frozen and refrigerated pizza
- Schwan Freschetta Simply…Inspired makes a successful debut
- Manufacturer sales of frozen pizza
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- Figure 47: Leading companies’ FDMx sales of frozen pizza, 2010*and 2011*
Brand Share—Refrigerated Pizza Kits, Crusts, and Dough
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- Key points
- Private label inches to nearly 40% of sales
- Manufacturer sales of refrigerated pizza kits, crusts, and dough
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- Figure 48: Leading companies’ FDMx sales of refrigerated pizza kits, crusts, and dough, 2010* and 2011*
Brand Share—Shelf-stable Kits, Pizza Sauces, and Crusts
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- Key points
- Despite a net gain, the category is ailing
- DiGiorno pizza crust is the most popular with consumers
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- Figure 49: Brands of packaged/ready-made pizza crust used, by age, October 2010-November 2011
- Pizza sauce purchases skew young and to families with children
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- Figure 50: Usage of pizza sauce, by marital status with children, October 2010-November 2011
- Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts
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- Figure 51: Leading companies’ FDMx sales of shelf-stable kits, pizza sauces, and crusts, 2010* and 2011*
Innovations and Innovators
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- Retail pizza product launches declined from 2007-11
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- Figure 52: Retail pizza product launches, by top claims, 2007-12*
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- Figure 53: Pizza introductions, by type, 2007-12*
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- Figure 54: Top companies and top brands, by retail pizza product launches, 2007-12*
- Artisan/upscale ingredients
- Improved/bigger/better
- Microwaveable/time/speed
- New/improved packaging
- Snack pizzas
- Gluten-free pizza
- Pizza-plus combos
- Ultra-thin-crust pizza
Marketing Strategies
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- Frozen pizza brands’ uphill marketing challenge
- Social media provides a democratic weapon
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- Figure 55: Social media activity, by top frozen pizza brands, June 2012
- Brand analysis: Freschetta Rally for Real Pizza
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- Figure 56: Brand analysis of Freschetta Rally for Real campaign, 2012
- Online initiatives
- Brand analysis: DiGiorno Pizza Dipping Strips
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- Figure 57: Brand analysis of DiGiorno Pizza Dipping Strips, 2012
- TV presence
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- Figure 58: DiGiorno, “Sorry, Vinny” TV Commercial, 2012
- Online presence
- Brand analysis: Tony’s Square Pizza
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- Figure 59: Brand analysis of Tony’s Score the Square Campaign, 2012
- Online presence
- Brand analysis: Red Baron, Taste the Legend
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- Figure 60: Brand analysis of Red Baron’s Taste the Legend Campaign, 2012
- TV presence
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- Figure 61: Red Baron, Taste the Legend Campaign, 2012
- Online presence
Pizza Consumption and Frequency
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- Key points
- Takeout/delivery and frozen pizza competing for consumers’ affection
- Pizza consumption declines with age; pizza at retail declines more
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- Figure 62: Frequency of eating frozen pizza in the past 30 days, by age, October 2010-November 2011
- Home-prep pizza is more of a young adult segment thus far
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- Figure 63: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by age, March 2012
- Absence of children significantly alters household pizza consumption
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- Figure 64: Households, by household size, 2001-11
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- Figure 65: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by presence of children in household, March 2012
- The very young eat the most frozen pizza
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- Figure 66: Consumption of frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
- Teens often decide which pizza is purchased
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- Figure 67: Involvement of teens in the brands of frozen pizza purchase decision process, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
Attitudes toward Pizza
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- Key points
- Pizza isn’t complicated, it’s food; however, quality is still important
- Brand loyalty isn’t strong; private label is seen by many as similar to brands
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- Figure 68: Leading pizza types/varieties appearing on menus, Q1 2009- Q1 2012
- Figure 69: Attitudes toward pizza, by age, March 2012
Purchase Drivers for Frozen and Refrigerated Pizza
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- Key points
- Personal preferences in toppings drive pizza purchases
- Two value attributes—quality and pizza size—are influential
- Speed is important, premium even more important
- Private label pizza shows strength
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- Figure 70: Important brand, preparation, and ingredient attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
Important Health-Related Attributes
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- Key points
- “Natural” and “organic” remain confusing terms
- Older consumers more interested in “low-in” attributes, but percentage low
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- Figure 71: Important health-related attributes when purchasing pizza, by age, March 2012
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- More multicultural consumers prefer refrigerated pizza to frozen
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- Figure 72: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
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- Figure 73: Attitudes toward pizza—any agree, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Is frozen pizza a meal or a snack?
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- Figure 74: Pizza usage occasions—frozen pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
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- Figure 75: Important health-related attributes when purchasing pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Consumption-frequency segmentation
- Pizza at retail’s invisible advantage
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- Figure 76: Frequency of eating pizza, by type of pizza, March 2012
- Presence of children has a dramatic impact on pizza consumption
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- Figure 77: Frequency of eating pizza, by type of pizza, by children’s age, March 2012
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- Figure 78: Frequency of eating pizza, by type of pizza by children’s age, March 2012
SymphonyIRI—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Frozen pizza
- Pizza
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 79: Brand map, selected brands of pizza buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 80: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen pizza, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 81: Household consumption of pizza by types eaten, by household income, March 2012
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- Figure 82: Brands of packaged/ready-made pizza crust used, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 83: Pizza usage occasions—refrigerated pizza, by children’s age, March 2012
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- Figure 84: Pizza usage occasions—refrigerated pizza, by household income, March 2012
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- Figure 85: Pizza usage occasions—frozen pizza, by household income, March 2012
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- Figure 86: Pizza usage occasions—takeout or delivery pizza, by household income, March 2012
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- Figure 87: Usage of packaged/ready-made pizza crust, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 88: Usage of packaged/ready-made pizza crust, by marital status with children, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 89: Usage of pizza sauce, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 90: Usage of pizza sauce, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 91: Brands of pizza sauce used, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 92: Consumption of frozen pizza, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 93: Household usage of pizza sauce, by age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 94: Consumption of frozen pizza, by age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 95: Consumption of frozen pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 96: Consumption of frozen pizza, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 97: Consumption of frozen pizza, by age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 98: Usage of packaged/ready-made pizza crust, by gender, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 99: Brands of packaged/ready-made pizza crust used, by gender, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 100: Pizza usage occasions—with store-bought dough, by gender, March 2012
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- Figure 101: Consumption and frequency of eating pizza with meat alternatives, by gender, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 102: Consumption and frequency of eating pizza with meat alternatives, by age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 103: Consumption of frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 104: Frequency of eating frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 105: Frequency of eating frozen pizza, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 106: Ranking of frozen pizza brands, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 107: Frequency of frozen pizza present in the house, by gender and age, October 2010-November 2011
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- Figure 108: Important brand, preparation, and ingredient attributes when purchasing pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
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Appendix—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix—Trade Associations
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