Table of Contents
Introduction
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Market in a nutshell
- Top two segments—regular and diet soda—exhibit decline
- Most soda buyers have not changed behavior in response to price increases
- Coca-Cola is the top player in the market
- Top cola brands flat or decline
- Regular soda core consumers show attrition
- Diet soda gains in men consumer base, but it’s men aged 55+
- Competition to heat up in crowding diet soda space
- Multipacks score over single-serve format
- Soda drinkers most likely to drink soda at home than out of home
- Interest in stevia-based soda remains small
Insights and Opportunities
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- Natural sweeteners offer “niche” growth opportunity
- Cane sugar soda is expensive; offers limited growth
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- Figure 1: New cane sugar-sweetened soda product count, 2006-11
- Stevia: limited success, a lot of hope
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- Figure 2: New stevia-sweetened soda product count, 2008-11
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: The Real Thing
- Trend: Greenfluencers
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Market growth challenged by health trends, price increases
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- Figure 3: Trends in FDMx dollar/volume sales and prices of carbonated soft drinks, 2006-11
- Sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 5: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 6: Fan chart forecast for carbonated soft drinks, at best-, worst-, and central-case scenario, 2006-16
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Decline in households with children may negatively impact the market
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- Figure 7: Households, by presence of children, 2001-11
- Kids and teens population is a key growth driver
- Teens are the key regular soda consumer
- Soda consumption among kids aged 6-11 remains strong
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- Figure 8: Kids and teens population, 2006-16
- Figure 9: Favorite colas are in your house, 2006/07 and 2010/11
- Adults aged 18-34 are key consumers, but population trends indicate little growth
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- Figure 10: Population 18+, by age, 2006-16
- Hispanics and blacks offer growth opportunities
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- Figure 11: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Figure 12: Average number of children in households, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
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- Figure 13: Household size, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
- Hispanics’ food preferences are changing
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- Figure 14: Presently watching diet, by race/Hispanic origin, 2004/05 and 2010/11
- Obesity and diabetes trends thwart soda consumption
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- Figure 15: Percentage of population aged 20+ who are overweight, obese, or extremely obese, 1988-2008
- Growing incidence of diabetes disfavors soda growth
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- Figure 16: Prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20+, by age, 2005-08
- More than half of adults watch their diet; a majority to lose weight
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- Figure 17: Presently watching diet, 2004/05-2010/11
- Figure 18: Reasons for watching diet, 2004/05-2010/11
- The quest for sugar-free foods increases with age; women more sensitive to sugar than men
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- Figure 19: Food that adults seek when watching diet, by age and gender, April 2010-June 2011
- Artificial sweeteners/additives threaten diet soda growth
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- Figure 20: Attitude/opinion about food, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
- The soda tax debate continues
- Let’s Move! program likely to negatively influence soda
- High-fructose corn syrup bothers soda consumers
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Energy drinks to pose stiffer competition with the revival of the economy
- Ready-to-drink tea proliferates, also available in fizzy format
- Sparkling fruit juices/drinks offer healthier option over soda
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Diet soda exhibits bigger decline than regular soda in 2011
- Total sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment
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- Figure 21: U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, 2006-16
- Figure 22: Total U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2009-11
Segment Performance—Regular Carbonated Drinks
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- Key points
- Volume sales more stable in 2011; need to rekindle love with teens, young adults
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- Figure 23: Trends in FDMx dollar/volume sales and prices of regular carbonated soft drinks, 2006-11
- Natural and sugar-sweetened soda gain, but still remains small
- Total sales of regular carbonated drinks
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- Figure 24: U.S. sales of regular carbonated drinks, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Diet Carbonated Drinks
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- Key points
- Diet soda offers growth opportunity only if the taste is right
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- Figure 25: Trends in FDMx dollar/volume sales and prices of diet carbonated soft drinks, 2006-11
- Competition to heat up in diet soda space
- Total sales of diet carbonated drinks
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- Figure 26: U.S. sales of diet carbonated drinks, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Seltzer/Tonic Water/Club Soda
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- Key points
- Segment experiences attrition from the key consumers
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- Figure 27: Trends in FDMx dollar/volume sales and prices of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, 2006-11
- Total sales of seltzer/tonic water/club soda
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- Figure 28: U.S. sales of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, 2006-16
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets exhibit decline; private labels in grocery channel lose volume
- Mass channel exhibits the biggest decline
- Convenience stores turn in weak performance
- Natural channel—stevia-sweetened soft drinks gain traction in natural channel
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- Figure 29: U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks, by retail channel, 2009 and 2011
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Coca-Cola gains; PepsiCo and Dr Pepper Snapple lose market share
- Private-label growth improves, albeit on the strength of price increases
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- Figure 30: Trends in FDMx dollar/volume sales and prices of private-label carbonated soft drinks, 2006-11
- Figure 31: FDMx sales of carbonated soft drinks, by manufacturers, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Regular Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Top cola brands flat or decline
- Natural brands show growth
- Non-cola brands perform better than cola brands
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- Figure 32: FDMx sales of leading regular carbonated soft drinks brands, part 1, 2010 and 2011
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- Figure 33: FDMx sales of leading regular carbonated soft drinks brands, part 2, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Diet Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Key points
- Diet Pepsi shows bigger loss than Diet Coke
- Pepsi Max growth overshadows that of Coke Zero; Dr Pepper Ten joins the bandwagon
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- Figure 34: FDMx sales of leading diet carbonated soft drinks brands, part 1, 2010 and 2011
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- Figure 35: FDMx sales of leading diet carbonated soft drinks brands, part 2, 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Seltzer/Tonic Water/Club Soda
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- Key points
- Private labels most popular; Polar shows growth
- Polar continues to show growth on the strength of flavor innovation
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- Figure 36: FDMx sales of leading seltzer/tonic water/club soda brands, 2010 and 2011
Innovations and Innovators
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- Pace of innovation declines in 2011
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- Figure 37: New carbonated soft drinks products count, 2006-11
- Top 10 new product claims
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- Figure 38: Top 10 claims in new carbonated soft drinks products, 2006-11
- Cola and root beer are the top flavors in new products
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- Figure 39: Top 10 flavors in new carbonated soft drinks products, 2006-11
- Dr Pepper Snapple Group leads the innovation in 2011
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- Figure 40: Top 10 companies, by carbonated soft drinks innovation, 2011
- Artisan and handcrafted soda
- “Pack size” innovation targets price-sensitive and health-conscious consumers
- Limited edition and holiday-special soda
- Private-label new product count remains steady
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- Figure 41: New carbonated soft drinks product count, by private label and branded, 2006-11
- Cane sugar-sweetened product continues to appear in the market
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- A continual assessment of brand image and positioning is essential
- Coca-Cola shares happiness with consumers in difficult times
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- Figure 42: Coca-Cola TV ad, “Preservation,” 2011
- Mountain Dew gives brand’s consumers control of the brand
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- Figure 43: Mountain Dew TV ad, “Delightful Flavor,” 2011
- PepsiCo engages in competitive advertising with Coca-Cola
- Pepsi Max and Coke Zero
- Sierra Mist Natural
- Diet soda brands heavily target men
- Coke Zero has masculine-tone advertising
- Dr Pepper Ten targets only men; excludes women from the product advertising
- Engage in community improvement
- Coca-Cola funds community parks to make people more active; takes arctic home initiative for polar bears
- PepsiCo continues with its Pepsi Refresh project
- Promoting food and soda together
The Consumer—Usage, Brands, Type, and Volume
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- Key points
- Incidence of drinking soda declines, but overall consumer base grows
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- Figure 44: Trends in the incidence of personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, 2004/05-2010/11
- Volume consumption remains stable
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- Figure 45: Trends in the mean frequency of drinking carbonated drinks, 2004/05-2010/11
- Regular cola and non-cola
- Regular soda core consumers show attrition
- Regular cola and non-cola consumption declines the most among highest-income households
- Households with children exhibit growth in consumption
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- Figure 46: Consumption of regular soda, by gender, age, household income, presence of children, and region, April 2010-June 2011
- Volume consumption of regular non-cola increases among key groups
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- Figure 47: Volume consumption of regular cola and non-cola, by gender, age, household income, presence of children, and region, April 2010-June 2011
- Coca-Cola Classic maintains its top position
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- Figure 48: Regular cola brands consumed in the past seven days, by age, April 2010-June 2011
- Sierra Mist, Mountain Dew, and Dr Pepper grow consumer base
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- Figure 49: Regular non-cola brands consumed in the past seven days, by age, April 2010-June 2011
- Diet cola and non-cola
- Diet cola and non-cola consumption declines among women
- Diet soda gains in male consumer base, but it’s men aged 55+
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- Figure 50: Consumption of soda, by gender, age, household income, presence of children, and region, April 2010-June 2011
- Volume consumption increases among men, declines among women
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- Figure 51: Volume consumption of diet soda, by gender, age, household income, presence of children, and region, April 2010-June 2011
- Diet Pepsi experiences erosion in consumer base
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- Figure 52: Diet cola brands consumed in the last seven days, by age, April 2010-June 2011
- Sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda
- Women, low-income households and those from the Northeast main consumers
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- Figure 53: Consumption of soda, by gender, household income, and region, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 54: Volume consumption of sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda, by gender, household income, and region, April 2010-June 2011
- Unflavored sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda more popular than flavored type
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- Figure 55: Types of sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda consumed, by age, April 2010-June 2011
- Aquafina Sparkling top brand; Perrier grows consumer base
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- Figure 56: Brand drunk in the last seven days, by gender, April 2010-June 2011
Factors influencing Soda Purchase Decision
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- Key points
- Brand choice and in-store price most important factors in regular soda purchase
- Sugar-sweetened soda likely to be a growth driver
- Regular soda buyers likely to respond favorably to price promotions/coupons
- Soda promoted with other food likely to increase purchase intention
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- Figure 57: Degree of influence of various factors in regular soda purchase decision, November 2011
- Age-related differences exist in factors influential in buying regular soda
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- Figure 58: Degree of influence of various factors in regular soda purchase decision, by age, November 2011
- Factors influencing diet soda purchase decision
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- Figure 59: Degree of influence of various factors in diet soda purchase decision, November 2011
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- Figure 60: Degree of influence of various factors in diet soda purchase decision, by gender, November 2011
Packaging Size Preference
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- Key points
- Multipacks score over single-serve format
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- Figure 61: Incidence of buying soda—single bottle/cans or multipack(s) package, by age, November 2011
- High-income households more likely to buy multipacks
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- Figure 62: Incidence of buying soda—single bottle/cans or multipack(s) package, by household income, November 2011
- 12-oz soda packaging most popular
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- Figure 63: Incidence of buying regular soda—single bottle/cans by bottle/can size, by age, November 2011
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- Figure 64: Incidence of buying regular soda—multipacks by bottle/can size, by age, November 2011
- Adults aged 18-34 are key single-serve diet soda consumer
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- Figure 65: Incidence of buying diet soda—single bottle/cans by bottle/can size, by age, November 2011
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- Figure 66: Incidence of buying diet soda—multipacks by bottle/can size, by age, November 2011
Frequency of Drinking Soda by Occasion
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- Soda drinkers more likely to drink soda at home than out of home
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- Figure 67: Frequency of drinking soda, by occasion, November 2011
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- Figure 68: Frequency of drinking soda, by occasion, by age, November 2011
Attitudes Toward Soda Price, Brands, and Related Health Concern
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- Key points
- Most soda buyers do not show price sensitivity
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- Figure 69: Attitudes toward soda price and brands among soda buyers, November 2011
- Young adults more price-sensitive than the average
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda buyers, by age, November 2011
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- Figure 71: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda buyers, by household income, November 2011
- Soda drinkers have issues with the artificial sweetener taste
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- Figure 72: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concerns among soda drinkers, November 2011
Attitudes Toward Soda Flavors
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- Rood beer, lemon-lime, and orange are the top three flavors soda drinkers like
- Soda drinkers show high interest in tea- and coffee-based flavors
- Hispanic flavors—some hot, some not so hot
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- Figure 73: Attitudes toward soda flavors, November 2011
- Figure 74: Attitudes toward soda flavors, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 75: Attitudes toward soda flavors, by age, November 2011
Attitudes toward Stevia-Sweetened Soda
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- Interest in stevia-based soda small; need for growing awareness for this soda type
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- Figure 76: Attitudes toward stevia-sweetened soda, by gender, November 2011
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Blacks and Hispanics are top regular soda consumers
- Diet soda makers need to attract blacks and Hispanics
- Hispanics are the key sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda consumers
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- Figure 77: Personal consumption of regular soda, diet soda, and sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
- Regular cola volume consumption declines significantly among Hispanics
- Blacks’ diet cola volume consumption increases
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- Figure 78: Trends in the mean frequency of drinking carbonated drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 79: Sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda consumption, by flavored/unflavored, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
- Price promotions a chief purchase criterion in soda purchase among the minorities
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- Figure 80: Degree of influence of various factors in regular soda purchase decision, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics more interested in single bottle/can format compared to multipacks
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- Figure 81: Incidence of buying soda—single bottle/cans or multipack(s) package, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Figure 82: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda buyers, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Artificial sweetener a roadblock in attracting black consumers
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- Figure 83: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda drinkers, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
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- Figure 84: Attitudes toward soda flavors, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
Custom Consumer Group
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- Experian Simmons custom consumer segmentation findings
- Food lifestyle segment
- Weekend Cooks and Convenience and Ease segments are the most active
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- Figure 85: Regular cola drinks, by food lifestyle segmentation, April 2010-June 2011
- Variety on a Budget offers opportunities
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- Figure 86: Number of drinks/glasses you drank in the last seven days, by food lifestyle segmentation, April 2010-June 2011
- Health and Wellbeing segment
- Weight Reformers are key target for diet soda
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- Figure 87: Regular cola drinks, by health and wellbeing segmentation, April 2010-June 2011
- Image shapers are most prolific soda drinkers
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- Figure 88: Number of drinks/glasses you drank in the last seven days, by health and wellbeing segmentation, April 2010-June 2011
IRI/Builders Panel Data—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of carbonated beverages
- Regular soft drinks—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 89: Brand map, selected brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 90: Key purchase measures for the top brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 2011*
- Low-calorie soft drinks—consumer insights on key purchase measures
- Brand map
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- Figure 91: Brand map, selected brands of low-calorie soft drinks buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 92: Key purchase measures for the top brands of low-calorie soft drinks, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix: Retail Channels
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- Retail channels—supermarkets
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- Figure 93: U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks at supermarkets, 2006-11
- Retail channels—convenience stores
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- Figure 94: U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks at convenience stores, 2006-11
- Retail channels—supercenters and warehouse clubs
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- Figure 95: U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks at supercenters and warehouse clubs, 2006-11
- Retail channels—drug stores
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- Figure 96: U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks at drug stores, 2006-11
- Retail channels—other
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- Figure 97: U.S. sales of carbonated soft drinks at other* channels, 2006-11
- Sales of carbonated beverages in the natural channel
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- Figure 98: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2009-11*
- Figure 99: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 100: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
- Brands of significance in natural channel
- Natural channel sales of carbonated drinks by organic
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- Figure 101: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated drinks—organic and non-organic, 2009 and 2011*
Appendix—Other Useful Tables
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- The consumer—usage, brands, type, and volume
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- Figure 102: Regular cola brands consumed in the past seven days, by household income, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 103: Regular non-cola brands consumed in the past seven days—top 15 brands, by gender, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 104: Diet cola brands consumed in the last seven days, by gender, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 105: Diet cola brands consumed in the last seven days, by household income, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 106: Diet cola brands consumed in the last seven days, by presence of children, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 107: Diet non-cola brands consumed in the last seven days, by gender, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 108: Diet non-cola brands consumed in the last seven days, by age, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 109: Types of sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda consumed, by age, April 2010-June 2011
- Factors influencing purchase decision
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- Figure 110: Degree of influence of various factors in regular soda purchase decision, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 111: Degree of influence of various factors in regular soda purchase decision, by household income, November 2011
- Figure 112: Degree of influence of various factors in regular soda purchase decision, by presence of children, November 2011
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- Figure 113: Degree of influence of various factors in regular soda purchase decision, by region, November 2011
- Figure 114: Degree of influence of various factors in diet soda purchase decision, by age, November 2011
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- Figure 115: Degree of influence of various factors in diet soda purchase decision, by presence of children, November 2011
- Packaging size preference
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- Figure 116: Incidence of buying soda—single bottle/cans or multipack(s) package, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 117: Incidence of buying soda—single bottle/cans or multipack(s) package, by presence of children, November 2011
- Figure 118: Incidence of buying soda—single bottle/cans or multipack(s) package, by region, November 2011
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- Figure 119: Incidence of buying regular soda—single bottle/cans by bottle/can size, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 120: Incidence of buying regular soda—single bottle/cans by bottle/can size, by household income, November 2011
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- Figure 121: Incidence of buying regular soda—multipacks by bottle/can size, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 122: Incidence of buying regular soda—multipacks by bottle/can size, by household income, November 2011
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- Figure 123: Incidence of buying diet soda—single bottle/cans by bottle/can size, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 124: Incidence of buying diet soda—single bottle/cans by bottle/can size, by household income, November 2011
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- Figure 125: Incidence of buying diet soda—multipacks by bottle/can size, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 126: Incidence of buying diet soda—multipacks by bottle/can size, by household income, November 2011
- Frequency of drinking soda by occasion
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- Figure 127: Frequency of drinking soda, by occasion, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 128: Frequency of drinking soda, by occasion, by household income, November 2011
- Figure 129: Frequency of drinking soda, by occasion, by presence of children, November 2011
- Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern
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- Figure 130: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda buyers, by gender, November 2011
- Figure 131: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda buyers, by presence of children, November 2011
- Figure 132: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda drinkers, by gender, November 2011
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- Figure 133: Attitudes toward soda price, brands, and related health concern among soda drinkers, by age, November 2011
- Attitudes toward soda flavors
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- Figure 134: Attitudes toward soda flavors, by household income, November 2011
- Figure 135: Attitudes toward soda flavors, by presence of children, November 2011
- Other useful tables—race and Hispanic origin
- Coca-Cola Classis is a favorite among Asians and Hispanics
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- Figure 136: Regular cola brands consumed in the past seven days, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 137: Regular non-cola brands consumed in the past seven days, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 138: Diet cola brands consumed in the last seven days, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 139: Diet non-cola brands consumed in the past seven days, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 140: Degree of influence of various factors in diet soda purchase decision, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Figure 141: Incidence of buying regular soda—single bottle/cans by bottle/can size, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
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- Figure 142: Incidence of buying regular soda—multipacks by bottle/can size, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Figure 143: Frequency of drinking soda, by occasion, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
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- Figure 144: Attitudes toward stevia-sweetened soda, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
- Other useful tables: teens and kids
- The teen soda consumer
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- Figure 145: Trends in the incidence of personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks among teens aged 6-11, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 146: Trends in the volume consumption of carbonated drinks among teens aged 12-17, 2006/07-2010/11
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- Figure 147: Regular cola drinks among teens aged 12-17, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 148: Regular cola drinks among teens aged 12-17, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 149: Number of drinks/glasses you drank in the last seven days among teens aged 12-17, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 150: Regular cola brands consumed in the past seven days among teens aged 12-17, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 151: Regular cola brands consumed in the past seven days among teens aged 12-17, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 152: Regular non-cola brands consumed in the past seven days among teens aged 12-17, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 153: Regular non-cola brands consumed in the past seven days among teens aged 12-17, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 154: Diet cola brands consumed in the past seven days among teens aged 12-17, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
- The kid soda consumer
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- Figure 155: Incidence of drinking regular cola among kids aged 6-11, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 156: Incidence of drinking regular cola among kids aged 6-11, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 157: Volume consumption of regular cola among kids aged 6-11, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 158: Volume consumption of regular cola among kids aged 6-11, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
- Figure 159: Incidence of drinking other soft drinks/soda pop among kids aged 6-11, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
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- Figure 160: Volume consumption of other soft drinks/pop (not cola) among kids aged 6-11, by gender and age, April 2010-June 2011
Appendix: SymphonyIRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
Appendix—Trade Associations
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