Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Fast casual market overview
- Market attracts high-income households; recession slows growth
- Young market attracts young users
- Fast casual answers demand for healthier dining choices
- Competition for fast casual restaurants
- Segment performance
- Breaking down the fast casual menu
- Marketing strategies
- Fast casual usage
- Weekly visits are the norm among fast casual users
- Lunch is the most popular dining occasion at fast casual
- Fast casual users spend the most at lunch
- Taste and quality are the most influential selection factors
Insights and Opportunities
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- Key points
- Families provide best route for fast casual to continue sales growth
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- Figure 1: Average annual expenditures for food away from home, all consumer units vs. parents, 2005-09
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- Figure 2: Average annual expenditures per consumer unit for food away from home by marital status and presence of children, 2005-09
- Figure 3: Index of average annual expenditures per consumer unit for food away from home by marital status and presence of children, 2005-09
- Fast casual is missing the kids’ meal opportunity
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- Figure 4: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by restaurant segment, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Fast casual can target families to drive usage of snack and dinner occasions
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- Figure 5: Dining occasions at fast casual restaurants by presence of children, June 2011
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- Figure 6: Chili’s email alert, August 2011
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: “Let’s Make a Deal”
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- Figure 7: Chick-fil-A coupon announcement, January 2011
- Trend: “Experience is All”
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- Figure 8: Dunkin’ Donuts mobile food truck
Market Size
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- Fast casual restarts growth momentum
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- Figure 9: Total U.S. sales at fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 10: Total U.S. sales of fast casual restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: Fan chart of market value for fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 12: Best and worst case forecast for fast casual restaurants, at current prices, 2011-16
Market Drivers
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- Lackluster consumer confidence supports instability in restaurant industry
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- Figure 13: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007–July 2011
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- Figure 14: Real personal disposable income, January 2007–June 2011
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- Figure 15: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007–July 2011
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- Figure 16: NRA performance indices, January 2009-June 2011
- Figure 17: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008–July 2011
- Implication for fast casual market
- The youthfulness of the market reflects its users
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- Figure 18: Population, by age, 2006-16
- Implication for fast casual market
- The call for healthy fast food
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- Figure 19: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
- Implication for fast casual market
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Competing with QSRs
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- Figure 20: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, June 2011
- Competing with casual dining
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- Figure 21: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining restaurants, June 2011
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Bakery/Café
- Panera Bread continues to produce impressive results
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- Figure 22: Systemwide U.S. restaurant sales of leading bakery/café fast casual chains, 2008 and 2010
- Ethnic
- Chipotle’s growth seems unstoppable
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- Figure 23: Systemwide U.S. restaurant sales of leading ethnic fast casual chains, 2008 and 2010
- Traditional and other
- Buffalo Wild Wings heats up segment sales
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- Figure 24: Systemwide U.S. restaurant sales of leading traditional and other fast casual chains, 2008 and 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Panera Bread
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- Overview
- Solid growth in 2010
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- Figure 25: Panera Bread’s systemwide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q2 2011
- Defining brand qualities
- Menu development
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- Figure 26: Panera Bread’s menu, Q2 2011
- Panera Bread dominates at lunch
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- Figure 27: Dining occasions usage at Panera Bread, June 2011
- Panera Bread marketing strategies
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- Figure 28: Valuable marketing efforts of fast casual restaurant chains by Panera Bread users, June 2011
Restaurant Analysis—Chipotle
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- Overview
- Double-digit sales growth returns
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- Figure 29: Chipotle’s systemwide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q2 11
- Food With Integrity defines the Chipotle brand
- Streamlined menu with customizable opportunities
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- Figure 30: Chipotle’s menu, Q2 2011
- Chipotle users are most likely to visit during lunch
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- Figure 31: Dining occasions at Chipotle, June 2011
- Chipotle marketing strategies
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- Figure 32: Valuable marketing efforts of fast casual restaurant chains by Chipotle users, June 2011
Restaurant Analysis—Buffalo Wild Wings
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- Overview
- Sales dipped in 2010 but regain footing in 2011
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- Figure 33: Buffalo Wild Wings company-owned* comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q2 2011
- Sports and entertainment are defining brand qualities
- Launch of customizable menu
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- Figure 34: Buffalo Wild Wings menu, Q2 2011
- Buffalo Wild Wings marketing strategies
Menu Analysis—The Fast Casual Menu
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- Key points
- Traditional American fare dominates fast casual menus
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- Figure 35: Top five fast casual menu item cuisine, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Italian fare commands highest price
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- Figure 36: Top five fast casual menu item cuisine, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- The sandwich is king of fast casual menu
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- Figure 37: Top 10 fast casual menu items, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Premium salads drive up salad prices
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- Figure 38: Top 10 fast casual menu items, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu Analysis—Marketing the Fast Casual Menu
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- Key points
- Freshness is integral to fast casual brands
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- Figure 39: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Fast casual operators give more attention to signature menu items
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- Figure 40: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on fast casual menus, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Gluten-free and vegetarian are gaining traction at fast casual
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- Figure 41: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Premium charges for nutritional menu items are negligible
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- Figure 42: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims on fast casual menus, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu Analysis—The Fast Casual Beverage Menu
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- Key points
- Little change on fast casual beverage menu
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- Figure 43: Top 10 beverages on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Highest price increases for smoothies, lemonade, and coffee beverages
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- Figure 44: Top 10 beverages on fast casual menus, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Menu Analysis—The Fast Casual Kids’ Menu
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- Key points
- Fast casual restaurants offer kids sandwich choices
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- Figure 45: Top 10 kids’ menu items on fast casual menus, by incidence, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
- Macaroni and cheese is the most expensive kids’ menu item
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- Figure 46: Top 10 kids’ menu items on fast casual menus, by incidence and average price, Q2 2009-Q2 2011
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- Defining the fast casual difference
- Freshness
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- Figure 47: Panera Bread TV ad, June 2011
- Ingredients
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- Figure 48: Jason’s Deli TV ad, February 2011
- Customization
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- Figure 49: Moe’s Southwest Grill TV ad, January 2011
- Focus on fun
- Adult beverages
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- Figure 50: Taco Cabana TV ad, July 2011
- Atmosphere
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- Figure 51: Buffalo Wild Wings TV ad, March 2011
- The value in price
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- Figure 52: Steak ’n Shake TV ad, June 2011
- Zaxby’s—Integrating marketing efforts
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- Figure 53: Zaxby’s TV ad, January 2011
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- Figure 54: Zaxby’s ad, 2011
- Figure 55: Zaxby’s homepage highlight, 2011
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- Figure 56: Zaxbys.com monthly people, July 2010-June 2011
Fast Casual Valuable Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Coupons by mail is the most valuable marketing effort
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- Figure 57: Valuable marketing efforts of fast casual restaurant chains by household income, June 2011
- Men younger than 35 value apps and social networking deals
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- Figure 58: Valuable marketing efforts of fast casual restaurant chains by gender and age, June 2011
- Facebook deals could help incentivize breakfast use
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- Figure 59: Valuable marketing efforts of fast casual restaurant chains by dining occasion, June 2011
- Frequent diner rewards and brand apps are valued by high-frequency fast casual users
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- Figure 60: Valuable marketing efforts of fast casual restaurant chains by usage frequency, June 2011
Fast Casual Usage
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- Key points
- Mediocre usage of fast casual restaurants provides room to grow
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- Figure 61: Fast casual usage, by age, June 2011
- More-affluent consumers are drawn to fast casual
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- Figure 62: Fast casual usage, by household income, June 2011
- Asians are most apt to use fast casual
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- Figure 63: Fast casual usage, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
- Panera Bread is the most widely used fast casual brand
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- Figure 64: Fast casual restaurant brand usage, by restaurant segment, June 2011
- Reasons for not visiting a fast casual restaurant
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- Figure 65: Reasons for not visiting fast casual restaurants, by household income, June 2011
- Men older than 55 prefer wait staff and don’t like menu options at fast casual
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- Figure 66: Reasons for not visiting fast casual restaurants, by gender and age, June 2011
Fast Casual Usage Frequency
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- Key points
- Fast casual restaurants visited 1.5 times per week
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- Figure 67: Number of visits to fast casual restaurants in past month, by household income, June 2011
- Men who are younger than 35 visit fast casual restaurants most frequently
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- Figure 68: Number of visits to fast casual restaurants in past month, by gender and age, June 2011
Fast Casual Dining Occasions
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- Key points
- Lunch is the most popular dining occasion at fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 69: Dining occasions at fast casual restaurants, by age, June 2011
- Low incomes less likely to eat lunch at fast casual
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- Figure 70: Dining occasions at fast casual restaurants, by household income, June 2011
- Panera Bread succeeds during breakfast and lunch dayparts
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- Figure 71: Dining occasions at fast casual restaurants, by restaurant brand, June 2011
Spending at Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Key points
- Fast casual users spend most per person during lunch
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- Figure 72: Spending at fast casual restaurants, by dining occasion, June 2011
- Consumers who are younger than 35 have the highest check average during lunch
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- Figure 73: Spending at fast casual restaurants for lunch, by age, June 2011
- Consumers aged 45+ have the highest average spend per person during dinner
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- Figure 74: Spending at fast casual restaurants for dinner, by age, June 2011
Fast Casual Selection Factors
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- Key points
- Taste and quality are driving factors in choice of fast casual restaurant
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- Figure 75: Fast casual selection factors, by gender, June 2011
- Older fast casual users are most influenced by quality, variety, and special offers
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- Figure 76: Fast casual selection factors, by age, June 2011
- Variety and speed of service drive choice among lower-income users
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- Figure 77: Fast casual selection factors, by household income, June 2011
- Variety is an important selection factor among high-frequency users
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- Figure 78: Fast casual selection factors by usage frequency, June 2011
- Fast casual restaurants receive high rating in taste and quality
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- Figure 79: Fast casual restaurant performance, by household income, June 2011
- Asians give high marks to fast casual for value
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- Figure 80: Fast casual restaurant performance, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
Health, Quality, and Value Perceptions
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- Key points
- Fast casual trumps fast food in health, quality, and value
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- Figure 81: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food, by household income, June 2011
- Men aged <35 positively associate health, value, and quality with fast casual
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- Figure 82: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to fast food restaurants, by gender and age, June 2011
- Casual dining has the edge over fast casual in health, quality, and value
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- Figure 83: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining restaurants, by gender and age, June 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
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