Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Strengths and weaknesses balance for weak category growth
- Indulgence back in style in declining ice cream segment
- Frozen novelties gain on both health and indulgence
- Yogurt’s healthy image drives sales
- Sherbet/sorbet/ices stagnate
- Private label steps up competition
- Supermarkets lead, but lose share to other channels
- Nestlé gains with novelties, declines in ice cream
- Unilever bets on Magnum to reignite growth in U.S.
- Mid-size players make gains
- Pace of new launches declines
- Consumption of frozen treats overall is nearly universal, but pockets of opportunity exist
- Year-round consumption, with off-season opportunities
- Flavor tops all other purchase drivers of frozen treats
- Category consumers only moderately loyal
- Old favorites top the list of preferred flavors, a starting point for new creations
Insights and Opportunities
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- Destination ice cream (and other frozen treats)
- Price promotion prevalence
- Could shopping for ice cream ever be as much fun as eating it?
- Is frozen yogurt ready for a Greek invasion?
- Better-for-you family desserts
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- Figure 1: Frozen treats consumption, by presence of children in the household, October 2009-December 2010
Inspire Insights
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- Inspire Trend—Minimize Me
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- Figure 2: Eating pattern, by gender, February 2010
- Figure 3: Purchase drivers for frozen treats, March 2011
- Consider this
- Bottom line
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Strengths and weaknesses balance for tepid growth
- Growth potential in frozen novelties
- Harder choices for ice cream
- Sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 5: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Walmart sales
- Fan-chart forecast
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- Figure 6: FDMx sales and fan forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties products, at current prices, 2006-16
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Shaky view of economy keeps ice cream sales in check
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- Figure 7: University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index, January 2006-March 2011
- Weight awareness
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- Figure 8: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
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- Figure 9: Eating pattern, by gender, February 2010
- Households with kids
- More ice cream eaten in households with kids…
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- Figure 10: Frozen treats consumption, by presence of children in household, March 2011
- …but the number of households with kids is in decline
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- Figure 11: Households, by presence of children younger than age 18, 2000-10
- Children population rising, only at a slightly lower rate than overall population
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- Figure 12: Population, by age, 2006-16
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Private label steps up competition
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- Figure 13: U.S FDMx sales OF PRIVATE Label ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2006-10
- Better products, stronger branding
- Category dominates other spoonable desserts
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- Figure 14: Household consumption of spoonable desserts, June/July 2010
- Ice cream shops
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Closely related display diverging sales performance
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment
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- Figure 15: U.S. FDMx Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, segmented by type, 2009 and 2011
Segment Performance—Ice Cream
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- Key points
- Too good to be true?
- Indulgence back in style
- Mixing it up
- Sales and forecast of ice cream
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- Figure 16: U.S. FDMx sales of ice cream, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Frozen Novelties
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- Key points
- Segment strength based on versatility of forms
- Healthier products make gains
- Good things increasingly come in smaller packages
- Sales and forecast of frozen novelties
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- Figure 17: Total U.S. FDMx sales of frozen novelties, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
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- Key points
- Yogurt’s healthy image drives sales
- Non-dairy alternatives
- Room for more
- Time to go Greek?
- Sales and forecast of frozen yogurt
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- Figure 18: Total U.S. FDMX SALES of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
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- Key points
- Limited segment growth potential, but opportunity for niche players
- Sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices
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- Figure 19: U.S. FDMx sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, 2006-16
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets lead, but lose share to other channels
- Other channels compete on their own strengths
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties by channel
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- Figure 20: U.S. FDMx retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, 2009 and 2011
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Supermarkets remain key to category growth
- Supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 21: U.S. FDMx Supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2006-11
Retail Channels—Other FDMx (Drug Stores and Mass Merchants, excluding Walmart)
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- Key points
- Other channels drive convenience-oriented food sales
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- Figure 22: U.S. Other FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2006-11
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Insights
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties in the natural channel
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- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2008-10*
- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10*
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2008 and 2010*
- Brands of note
- Natural channel sales by organic content
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- Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by organic content, 2008 and 2010*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Nestlé gains with novelties
- Unilever bets on Magnum to reignite growth in the U.S.
- Manufacturer sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet, and frozen yogurt through FDMx
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- Figure 27: FDMX Manufacturer and brand sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt in the U.S., 2010 and 2011
Brand Share—Ice Cream
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- Key points
- Taste, fun, and indulgence still rule in declining ice cream segment
- Simple, short, natural ingredient lists complement indulgence message
- Better-for-you ice cream loses traction
- Taste trumps health
- Manufacturer and brand sales of ice cream
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- Figure 28: FDMX manufacturer and brand sales of ice cream in the U.S., 2010* and 2011**
Brand Share—Frozen Novelties
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- Key points
- Dynamic segment offers diverse opportunities
- Indulgence, fun, nostalgia (and subtle portion control)
- Better-for-you frozen novelties
- Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen novelties
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- Figure 29: FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of frozen novelties in the U.S., 2010* and 2011**
Brand Share—Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
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- Key points
- Nestlé slips as segment grows
- Smaller players grab share, grow segment
- Kemps a solid number two to Edy’s/Dreyer’s
- Turtle Mountain expands with soy- and coconut-based products
- Blue Bunny offers value in two extra scoops
- Private label share jumps in 2010
- Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt
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- Figure 30: FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt in the U.S., 2010* and 2011**
Brand Share—Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
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- Key points
- Nestlé’s segment-leading brands losing share
- Private label advances
- FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of sherbet
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- Figure 31: FDMx manufacturer AND BRAND sales of sherbet in the U.S., 2010*-2011**
Innovations and Innovators
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- Pace of new launches declines
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- Figure 32: Ice cream and frozen novelty packaging claims, U.S., 2005-11
- Better-for-you claims remain prominent
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- Figure 33: Ice cream and frozen novelty new product packaging claims, U.S., 2005-11
- Chocolate, vanilla, strawberry still on top of a long list of flavors
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- Figure 34: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor components, U.S., 2005-11
- From indulgent to decadent
- Exotic flavors
- From better-for-you to healthy
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Ben & Jerry’s recipe for success
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- Figure 35: FDMx sales of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and frozen novelties varieties, 2006-11
- Häagen-Dazs supports its super-premium image
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- Figure 36: Häagen-Dazs TV ad, 2010
- Quality message extended online
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- Figure 37: FDMx sales of Häagen-Dazs ice cream and frozen novelties varieties, 2006-11
- Magnum launches in the U.S.
- Focus on pursuit of pleasure
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- Figure 38: Magnum launch TV ad, 2011
- Integrated campaign
Frozen Treats Incidence and Usage Frequency
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- Key points
- Consumption of ice cream more widespread than other frozen treats
- Women more likely to consume most frozen treats
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- Figure 39: Frozen treats consumption, by gender, March 2011
- Younger consumers and families eat a wider variety of frozen treats
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- Figure 40: Frozen treats consumption by type of frozen treat, by age, March 2011
- Higher-income consumers eat wider variety of indulgent and healthy treats
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- Figure 41: Frozen treats consumption, by household income, March 2011
- Regular (non-diet) ice cream favored over better-for-you alternatives
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- Figure 42: Ice cream, sherbet, and fruit sorbet consumption among households that eat ice cream and sherbet, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
- Regular (non-diet) ice cream a little less prominent among older adults
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- Figure 43: Ice cream, sherbet, and fruit sorbet consumption among households that eat ice cream and sherbet, by age, October 2009-December 2010
Usage Occasions
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- Key points
- Most frozen treats eaten year-round, but off-season opportunity still exists
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- Figure 44: Usage occasions by frozen treat, by age, March 2011
- Frozen treats aren’t just for dessert
- Frozen novelties drive snack consumption
- Emotional rescue
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- Figure 45: Frozen treats usage occasions, by gender, March 2011
- Presence of kids drives dessert use, opportunity for better-for-you
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- Figure 46: Frozen treats usage occasions, by presence of children in household, March 2011
Purchase Drivers for Frozen Treats
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- Price and deals also significant factors in purchase decisions for frozen treats
- Health factors fall farther down the list
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- Figure 47: Purchase drivers for frozen treats, by gender, March 2011
- Health factors only moderately more important among older consumers
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- Figure 48: Purchase drivers for frozen treats, by age, March 2011
Brand Preference Factors
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- Key points
- Category consumers are loyal, to a point
- Promotional impact
- Something completely different
- Retailer loyalty
- Tofu shoppers less motivated by deals or private label
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- Figure 49: Brand preference factors, by frozen treat, March 2011
- Women less loyal to ice cream and frozen novelty brands
- What about the guys?
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- Figure 50: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preference factors, by gender, March 2011
- Young ice cream and frozen novelty eaters more likely to try to what’s new
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- Figure 51: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preference factors, by age, March 2011
- Less loyalty in smaller segments
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- Figure 52: Frozen yogurt and gelato brand preference factors, by gender, March 2011
Flavor Preferences
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- Key points
- Old favorites stay on top
- Familiar favorites just a starting point for new creations
- Men skew a bit to more familiar flavors
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- Figure 53: Personal flavor preference, by gender, March 2011
- Older adults more likely to go for fruit flavors
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- Figure 54: Personal flavor preference, by age, March 2011
- Kids don’t like nuts, but cookie dough’s okay
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- Figure 55: Personal and family member flavor preference, March 2011
Purchase Locations
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- Key points
- Grocery stores still the most common channel for frozen treats
- Young shoppers more likely to shop around
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- Figure 56: Purchase locations for ice cream and other frozen treats, by age, March 2011
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Asians especially interested in frozen treats perceived to be healthier
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- Figure 57: Frozen treats consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2011
- Asians less likely to give themselves a frozen treat
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- Figure 58: Usage drivers by frozen treat, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2011
- Flavor highly important among all groups in product selection
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- Figure 59: Purchase decision factors, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2011
Kids and Teens
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- Key points
- Almost all kids eat ice cream
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- Figure 60: Consumption of ice cream in the last 30 days for kids aged 6-11, by age and gender, October 2009-December 2010
- Teens slightly less likely to eat ice cream than younger kids
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- Figure 61: Consumption and frequency of consumption of ice cream usage in the last 30 days for teens aged 12-17, by age and gender, October 2009-December 2010
- Teen girls significantly more likely than boys to eat frozen yogurt
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- Figure 62: Consumption and frequency of consumption of frozen yogurt usage in the last 30 days for teens aged 12-17, by age and gender, October 2009-December 2010
Cluster Analysis
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- Daily Year-Rounders
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Flavorless Coolers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Snacking Treaters
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 63: Frozen treats clusters, March 2011
- Figure 64: Frozen Treats usage occasions, by frozen treats clusters, March 2011
- Figure 65: Frozen treats usage occasion, by frozen treats clusters, March 2011
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- Figure 66: Ways of eating frozen treats, by frozen treats clusters, March 2011
- Figure 67: Purchase decision factors, by frozen treats clusters, March 2011
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 68: Ice cream and frozen novelties clusters, by gender, March 2011
- Figure 69: Frozen treats clusters, by age, March 2011
- Figure 70: Frozen treats clusters, by household income, March 2011
- Figure 71: Frozen treats clusters, by race, March 2011
- Figure 72: Frozen treats clusters, by Hispanic origin, March 2011
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups—Gender and Presence of Children
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- Kids at home influence men’s consumption more than women’s
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- Figure 73: Frozen treats consumption, by gender and presence of children in household, March 2011
- Women with no kids at home more likely to seek frozen treats for comfort
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- Figure 74: Frozen treats usage occasions, by gender and presence of children in household, March 2011
- Flavor a top consideration for all, women interested in fun ingredients
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- Figure 75: Frozen treats purchase decision drivers, by gender and presence of children in household, March 2011
- Women show greater interest in new products
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- Figure 76: Frozen treats brand preference factors, by gender and presence of children in household, March 2011
IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of ice cream/sherbet
- Overview of frozen novelties
- Ice cream
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—ice cream
- Brand map
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- Figure 77: Brand map, selected brands of ice cream buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 78: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ice cream, by household penetration, 2010*
- Sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Brand map
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- Figure 79: Brand map, selected brands of sherbet/sorbet/ices buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 80: Key purchase measures for the top brands of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by household penetration, 2010*
- Frozen yogurt/tofu
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen yogurt/tofu
- Brand map
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- Figure 81: Brand map, selected brands of frozen yogurt/tofu buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 82: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen yogurt/tofu, by household penetration, 2010*
- Frozen novelties
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen novelties
- Brand map
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- Figure 83: Brand map, selected brands of frozen novelties buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 84: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen novelties, by household penetration, 2010*
- Ice pop novelties
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—ice pop novelties
- Brand map
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- Figure 85: Brand map, selected brands of ice pop novelties buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 86: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ice pop novelties, by household penetration, 2010*
Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 87: Frozen treats consumption, by children in the household, March 2011
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- Figure 88: Usage occasions of frozen treats, by age, March 2011
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- Figure 89: Ice cream and sherbet consumption, by health attributes, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2009-December 2010
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- Figure 90: Frozen yogurt consumption, by fat level, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
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- Figure 91: Frozen yogurt consumption, by fat level, by age, October 2009-December 2010
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- Figure 92: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by household income, March 2011
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Appendix—IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- IRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix—Trade Associations
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