Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Excluded
- Abbreviations
Issues in the Market
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- Has the trend towards artisan cakes and bakeries contributed to growth in the take-home market?
- How much potential is there for out of home cake consumption?
- How can occasions drive growth?
- Can healthier variants help to broaden the consumer base?
- What are the limitations for premiumisation in the market?
Future Opportunities
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- Fauxthenticity
- Play Ethic
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
- A tough 2010
- The future
- Market factors
- Moderate consumption
- Ageing population
- Balancing indulgence with other determining factors
- Companies, brands and innovation
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- Figure 2: Estimated market share of wrapped cakes and cake bars, 2010
- Own-label leverages power of scale
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- Figure 3: Attitudes towards and usage of cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
- NPD helps to drive the market
- Premier Foods looks to TV
- The consumer
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- Figure 4: Types of cakes and cake bars eaten or bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
- Wrapped cakes/cake bars largely dominate the market
- Women opt for special occasions, men for snacking
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- Figure 5: Net difference* between most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by gender, April 2011
- What we think
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Consumption is geared towards occasional usage and afternoon snacking
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- Figure 6: Trends in frequency of eating fresh or wrapped cakes, 2010
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- Figure 7: Times when snacking on cakes and biscuits, 2010
- Balancing health with indulgence
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- Figure 8: Change in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet, 2006-10
- Fighting obesity remains a legislative issue
- Snacking provides opportunities for cakes/cake bars
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- Figure 9: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, 2006-10
- Fuelled by self-gifting
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- Figure 10: Trends in reasons for snacking, 2010
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Rising commodity costs
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- Figure 11: RPI detailed indices, biscuits and cakes, January 2010-March 2011
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 12: Gfk NOP Consumer confidence index, January 2006-April 2011
- Demographic factors affecting the market
- Growth in 25-34s will provide a boost
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- Figure 13: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-11 and 2011-16
- There is a need to appeal to the growing AB population
- One-person households prove a challenge
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- Figure 14: UK households, by percentage of population, 2006-16
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Competing with other snacking categories
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- Figure 15: UK retail sales value of selected snack categories, by value, 2010
- Popularity of home baking poses a threat
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- Figure 16: UK retail sales value of home baking products, 2005-10
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Own-label and brands competing over NPD
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- Figure 17: New product launches in the cakes and cake bars market UK, by own-label vs brands, January 2008-March 2011
- Smaller format sizes offer indulgence and portability
- Attempting to replicate cupcakes’ success
- Chocolate brands entering the market
- Catering to seasonal occasions
- Themed celebration cakes target children’s market
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- The market sees a decline in growth
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- Figure 18: UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by value, 2006-16
- Future growth in the market
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- Figure 19: Cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
- Segmentation
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- Figure 20: Wrapped cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
- Figure 21: Unwrapped cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
- Methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
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- Figure 22: UK retail value sales of cakes/cake bars, by type, 2008-10
- Wrapped cakes
- Small cakes experience a decline in sales
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- Figure 23: UK retail value sales and forecast of small/individual cakes/cake bars, 2006-16
- Figure 24: UK retail value sales of small/individual cakes/cake bars, by type, 2008-10
- Large cakes see sales stagnate
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- Figure 25: UK retail value sales and forecast of large cakes, 2006-16
- Figure 26: UK retail value sales of large cakes, by type, 2008-10
- The influence of seasonal occasions
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- Figure 27: UK retail value sales and forecast of occasion cakes, 2006-16
- Unwrapped cakes
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- Figure 28: UK retail value sales and forecast of unwrapped cakes/cake bars, 2006-16
Market Share
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- Key points
- Major brands struggle with own-label over share
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- Figure 29: Estimated manufacturer and brand value shares in wrapped cakes/cake bars, 2009-10
Companies and Products
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- Figure 30: Major players in the cakes and cake bars market, UK, 2011
- Premier Foods
- United Biscuits
- Finsbury Food Group
- The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys
- Greencore
- McCambridge
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Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
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- Figure 32: Attitudes by cake and cake bar brand, April 2011
- Brand personality
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- Figure 33: Cake and cake bar brand personality – macro image, April 2011
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- Figure 34: Cake and cake bar brand personality – micro image, April 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand experience
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- Figure 35: Cake and cake bar brand usage, April 2011
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- Figure 36: Satisfaction with various cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
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- Figure 37: Consideration of cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
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- Figure 38: Consumer perceptions of current cake and cake bar brand performance, April 2011
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- Figure 39: Cake and cake bar brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, April 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 40: Cake and cake bar brand index, April 2011
- Figure 41: Cake and cake bar brand index vs. recommendation, April 2011
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 42: Target groups, April 2011
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- Figure 43: Cake and cake bar brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
- Group One – The Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – The Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- 2010 sees a return to advertising investment
- Premier Foods dominates spend
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- Figure 46: Advertising expenditure by brand, in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2006-10
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Supermarkets leverage scale of distribution
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- Figure 47: Food, drink and tobacco – estimated channels of distribution, 2009
- M&S and Asda stores prove popular
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- Figure 48: Index of supermarkets used by those eating/serving cakes and cake bars, (Average = 100), April 2011
- Specialists offer indulgence
The Consumer – Usage
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- Key points
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- Figure 49: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
- Penetration at over three fifths but geared towards infrequent usage
- Core base of cakes/cake bars remains women and the under-35s
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- Figure 50: Index of types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
- Appealing to the larger households
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- Figure 51: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, by household size, April 2011
- Extensive crossover between users
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- Figure 52: Crossover in types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
The Consumer – Occasions
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- Key points
- Snacking the key motivator
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- Figure 53: Most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, April 2011
- Need to do more to drive out of home snacking
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- Figure 54: Index of most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by gender, age, socio-economic status and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
- Women opt for special occasions, men for snacking
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- Figure 55: Net difference* between most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by gender, April 2011
- Self-gifting popular among smaller households
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- Figure 56: Those eating/serving cakes/cake bars ‘as a treat’, by household size, April 2011
- Defined occasions can help to drive usage
The Consumer – Behaviour
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- Key points
- Adventurous on flavour, apathetic on brand
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- Figure 57: Statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, by age, April 2011
- Promotions popular among consumers
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- Figure 58: Statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, by annual household income, April 2011
- Threat from home baking
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- Figure 59: Index of agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to make cakes from scratch’, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
- Balancing health and indulgence
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- Figure 60: Statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, April 2011
- An alternative option
- Format innovation could help to encourage out of home usage
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- Figure 61: Index of agreement with statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, by occasions when eating/serving cakes/cake bars, (Average = 100), April 2011
- And appeal to one-person households
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Key points
- Women are more engaged with the category
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- Figure 62: Index of agreement with statements on cakes/cake bars, by gender, (Average = 100), April 2011
- Providing moderate indulgence to consumers
- Addressing unhealthy perceptions
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- Figure 63: Index of agreement with the statement ‘Cakes/cake bars are unhealthy’, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
- Attitudes towards occasions
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- Figure 64: Statements on cakes/cake bars, April 2011
- Consumers are unconvinced on value-for-money positioning
The Consumer – Targeting Opportunities
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- Key points
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- Figure 65: Target groups based on attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, April 2011
- Reluctant
- Engaged Snackers
- Moderate
- Disengaged
Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 66: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2011 prices, 2006-16
- Figure 67: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
- Figure 68: UK households, by size, 2006-16
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 69: Best- and worst-case forecasts for cakes and cake bars, 2011-16
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 70: Brand usage, April 2011
- Figure 71: Brand commitment, April 2011
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- Figure 72: Brand momentum, April 2011
- Figure 73: Brand diversity, April 2011
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- Figure 74: Brand satisfaction, April 2011
- Figure 75: Brand recommendation, April 2011
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- Figure 76: Brand attitudes, April 2011
- Figure 77: Brand image - Macro image, April 2011
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- Figure 78: Brand image - Micro image, April 2011
- Figure 79: Profile of target groups, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 80: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, April 2011
- Figure 81: Brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 82: Brand index, April 2011
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Appendix – Consumer Usage
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- Figure 83: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
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- Figure 84: Wrapped cakes/slices/cake bars/fruit pies eaten/bought in the last 12 months by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 85: Unwrapped cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 86: Large cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months by demographics, April 2011
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Appendix – Consumer Occasions
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- Figure 86: Popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 87: Popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 88: Most popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by wrapped cakes/slices/cake bars/fruit pies eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
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- Figure 89: Most popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars by unwrapped cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
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- Figure 90: Most popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars by large cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Behaviour
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- Figure 91: Attitudes towards statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, April 2011
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- Figure 92: Agreement with the statements ‘I tend to buy the same brands of cakes/cake bars’ and ‘I like to try new flavours of cakes/cake bars’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 93: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see more flavours of cakes/cake bars available’ and ‘I prefer to make cakes from scratch’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 94: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see a wider variety of sizes available in cakes/cake bars’ and ‘I eat cakes/cake bars as an alternative to other snacks eg chocolate bars’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 95: Agreement with the statements ‘I have switched to buying own label cakes/cake bars as a way of saving money’ and ‘I would like to see more cakes/cake bars with premium ingredients eg superfruits, extra chocolate’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 96: Agreement with the statements ‘I tend to eat cakes at the weekend when i can indulge myself’ and ‘I buy multipacks and eat the individual cakes/cake bars outside of my home’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 97: Agreement with the statements ‘I buy low fat/sugar varieties whenever possible’ and ‘I tend to buy cakes/cake bars on promotion’, by demographics, April 2011
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Figure 98: Attitudes towards statements on cakes/cake bars, April 2011
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- Figure 99: Agreement with the statements ‘Cakes/cake bars are unhealthy’ and ‘Cakes/cake bars are a great way to indulge’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 100: Agreement with the statements ‘cakes/cake bars are fine in moderation’ and ‘cakes/cake bars are suitable for lunch-boxes’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 101: Agreement with the statements ‘Cakes/cake bars offer value for money’ and ‘Own label cakes/cake bars taste just as good as branded’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘Cakes/cake bars are suitable as a dessert’ and ‘Cakes are only suitable for special occasions’, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘Cake bars are suitable for portion control’ and ‘Cakes are an essential part of afternoon tea’, by demographics, April 2011
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