Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Restaurant sales a casualty of the recession
- Traditional families aide restaurant sales during recession
- Bringing families back to the dinner table
- Families represent a shrinking share of the population
- Growth in the Hispanic population bodes well for family dining
- Healthy dining is important for families
- Dining out for breakfast, lunch, and dinner
- The kids’ menu is a competitive necessity
Insights and Opportunities
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- Families provide best route in the road to recovery for restaurant industry
- Insight: Traditional American Families
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- Figure 1: Family dining habits impacted by recession, by marital status, November 2010
- Opportunities
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Experience Is All
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Restaurant industry outlook: A return to normalcy
- Sales and forecast of restaurant sales
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- Figure 2: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 4: Restaurant industry fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2005-15
Market Drivers
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- Recession causes restaurant sales to suffer, but outlook improves
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- Figure 5: NRA performance indices, January 2009-November 2010
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- Figure 6: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008-November 2010
- Rising food prices
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- Figure 7: CPI for food, November 2008-November 2010
- Unemployment and underemployment impact spending
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- Figure 8: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-December 2010
- Cash at hand remains limited
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- Figure 9: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-November 2010
- Consumer confidence still rattled
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- Figure 10: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-December 2010
- The impact of the family consumer unit on restaurant sales
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- Figure 11: Average annual expenditures for food away from home, all consumer units vs. parents, 2005-09
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- Figure 12: Average annual expenditures per consumer unit for food away from home, by marital status and presence of children, 2005-09
- Figure 13: Index of average annual expenditures per consumer unit for food away from home, by marital status and presence of children, 2005-09
- Families representing smaller share of households
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- Figure 14: Households by presence of children, 1999-2009
- The child population—restaurant needs vary by age
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- Figure 15: Population, by age, 2006-16
- Hispanics more likely to dine as a family
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- Figure 16: Population by Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Battling the bulge is a family affair
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- Figure 17: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
- Children following in parents’ footsteps
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- Figure 18: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by nutritional ingredient claim, Q3 2008–Q3 2010
- Figure 19: Prevalence of obesity among children aged 2-19, 1988-2008
- Government intervention in healthy dining
Competitive Context
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- The family meal at home
- The implication
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- Figure 20: Family dining at home, November 2010
- Recession fuels at-home dining trend
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- Figure 21: Incidence of cooking more at home to save money and improve nutrition, July 2010
- Restaurant operators entice families to dine out
- The bottom line
- But challenges remain
Menu Analysis—Differences by Daypart
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- Key points
- Dinner offers consumers more choice
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- Figure 22: Incidence of menu items, by menu type, Q3 2008–Q3 2010
- Breakfast is the least expensive meal
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- Figure 23: Average price of menu items, by menu type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Menu Analysis—What’s on the Menu
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- Key points
- Entrées and sandwiches account for largest menu sections
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- Figure 24: Incidence of menu items, by menu section, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- Diversity in choice of entrée
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- Figure 25: Incidence of entrée menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- Casual dining offers largest menu
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- Figure 26: Incidence of menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- The price of dining out
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- Figure 27: Average price of menu items, by menu section, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- Fast casual offers lowest prices
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- Figure 28: Average price of menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Menu Analysis—Kids’ Menu Items
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- Key points
- Choices for kids
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- Figure 29: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- Frying chicken is the most popular
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- Figure 30: Incidence of kids’ chicken menu items, by preparation, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- Fine dining increases the number of kids’ menu items; fast casual taking it slow
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- Figure 31: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- The price of kids’ menu items
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- Figure 32: Average price of kids’ menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Menu Analysis—The Combo Deal
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- Key points
- Make it a combo
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- Figure 33: Average price of combo menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- Kids’ menus—the price of happiness
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- Figure 34: Average price of kids’ combo menu items, by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Menu Analysis—Marketing the Menu
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- Key points
- Marketing menu items toward adults
- Hot trend—Gluten-free
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- Figure 35: Incidence of menu item, by marketing claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
- Marketing the kids’ menu
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- Figure 36: Incidence of kids’ menu items, by marketing claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Family is part of Olive Garden’s brand message
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- Figure 37: Olive Garden’s television ad, family of five, June 2010
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- Figure 38: Olive Garden’s television ad, favorite uncles, June 2010
- Figure 39: Olive Garden’s television ad, college visit, June 2010
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- Figure 40: Demographic index* for olivegarden.com, by age, January 2011
- McDonald’s—The brand that woos kids
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- Figure 41: McDonald’s television ad, happy meal toy promotion, August 2010
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- Figure 42: McDonald’s television ad, Charity donation, June 2010
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- Figure 43: Demographic index* for mcdonalds.com, by presence and age of children in household, April 2010
- Peripheral efforts to appeal to families
- A sense of family
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- Figure 44: Applebee’s television ad, May 2010
- Free kids’ meals
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- Figure 45: Chili’s email alert, December 2010
- Fundraisers encourage family dining
- Ad spending of top advertisers by restaurant segment
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- Figure 46: Top three restaurant advertisers, by segment, 2008 and 2009
Family Dining at Home
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- Key points
- Families most likely to eat dinner together at home
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- Figure 47: Family dining at home, November 2010
- Single parents less apt to have family dinners
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- Figure 48: Family dining at home, by marital status, November 2010
Family Dining at Restaurants
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- Key points
- Incidence of families dining at restaurants during the month
- Families frequently dine at restaurants
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- Figure 49: Family dining at restaurants, November 2010
- Restaurant usage lags among the less affluent
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- Figure 50: Family dining at restaurants, by household income, November 2010
- Single parents are less apt to dine out as a family during the week
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- Figure 51: Family dining at restaurants, by marital status, November 2010
- Restaurant usage by households with children
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- Figure 52: Restaurant usage, by households with children and marital status of parents, April 2009-June 2010
- Lunchtime and snacking offer opportunities in family dining
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward meal occasions and snacking, by presence of children in household, April 2009-June 2010
- Children and teen usage of restaurants by dining occasion
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- Figure 54: Kids’ and teens’ restaurant usage, by dining occasion, April 2009-June 2010
Family Dining at Restaurants by Daypart
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- Breakfast
- Key points
- Weekday breakfast
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- Figure 55: Restaurant dining for weekday breakfast, November 2010
- Weekend breakfast
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- Figure 56: Restaurant dining for weekend breakfast, November 2010
- Lunch
- Key points
- Weekday lunch
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- Figure 57: Restaurant dining for weekday lunch, November 2010
- Weekend lunch
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- Figure 58: Restaurant dining for weekend lunch, November 2010
- Dinner
- Key points
- Weekday dinner
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- Figure 59: Restaurant dining for weekday dinner, November 2010
- Weekend dinner
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- Figure 60: Restaurant dining for weekend dinner, November 2010
Family Dining Out—Habits and Behaviors
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- Key points
- Speed of service and kids’ meals are important to family dining
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- Figure 61: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by age, November 2010
- Less affluent parents more likely to limit kids’ food choices by price
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- Figure 62: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by household income, November 2010
- Large families look for entertainment value
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- Figure 63: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by number of children, November 2010
Family Dining-Out Habits—Impact of the Recession
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- Key points
- Families continue to modify behavior because of the recession
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- Figure 64: Family dining habits impacted by recession, by household income, November 2010
- Families are dining out less often because of the recession
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- Figure 65: Recession-induced changes in family dining-out habits, November 2010
What Parents Want to See More of on the Kids’ Menu
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- Key points
- Healthy meals in demand for kids
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- Figure 66: What parents would like to see more of on the kids’ menu, by age, November 2010
- Larger families want more variety
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- Figure 67: What parents would like to see more of on the kids’ menu, by number of children, November 2010
Interest in Healthy/Nutritional Restaurant Meals
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- Key points
- Parents show greatest concern in healthy meals for young children
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- Figure 68: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals, for self or children, November 2010
- Moms and dads equally concerned about healthy restaurants meals for young kids
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- Figure 69: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for children aged 1-5, by gender, November 2010
- Moms are more inclined not to worry about healthy meals for kids aged 6-11
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- Figure 70: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for children aged 6-11, by gender, November 2010
- Servings of fruits and veggies still popular for teens
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- Figure 71: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for children aged 12-17, by gender, November 2010
- Women look for fruits and veggies in restaurant meals for themselves
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- Figure 72: Interest in healthy/nutritional restaurant meals for themselves, by gender, November 2010
Restaurant Diners’ Usage of Social Media
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- Figure 73: Restaurant diners’ usage of social media, by presence of children in household, April 2009–June 2010
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Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanic families more likely to eat breakfast and lunch together
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- Figure 74: Family dining at home, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
- Hispanics more likely to dine out as a family
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- Figure 75: Family dining at restaurants, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
- Hispanics are influenced by affordability and health
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- Figure 76: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
Cluster Analysis
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- Infrequent Meal Sharers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Recession-Induced Economizers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Family Feasters
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Characteristic tables
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- Figure 77: Family dining clusters, November 2010
- Figure 78: Family dining at home, by family dining clusters, November 2010
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- Figure 79: Family dining at restaurants, by family dining clusters, November 2010
- Figure 80: Restaurant dining for weekday breakfast, by family dining clusters, November 2010
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- Figure 81: Restaurant dining for weekend breakfast, by family dining clusters, November 2010
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- Figure 82: Restaurant dining for weekday lunch, by family dining clusters, November 2010
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- Figure 83: Restaurant dining for weekend lunch, by family dining clusters, November 2010
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- Figure 84: Restaurant dining for weekday dinner, by family dining clusters, November 2010
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- Figure 85: Restaurant dining for weekend dinner, by family dining clusters, November 2010
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- Figure 86: Families’ restaurant dining habits and behaviors, by family dining clusters, November 2010
- Figure 87: Recession-induced changes in family dining-out habits, by family dining clusters, November 2010
- Demographic tables
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- Figure 88: Family dining clusters, by gender, November 2010
- Figure 89: Family dining clusters, by age, November 2010
- Figure 90: Family dining clusters, by household income, November 2010
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- Figure 91: Family dining clusters, by race, November 2010
- Figure 92: Family dining clusters, by Hispanic origin, November 2010
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- Figure 93: Family dining clusters, by number of children, November 2010
- Cluster methodology:
Appendix—Trade Associations
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