Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Mature market with some opportunities for growth
- Ice cream parlors, private label growth and DIY ice cream challenge at-home ice cream
- Ice cream segment remains flat due to lack of innovation
- Frozen novelties win with diet products
- Sorbet market overwhelmed by private label
- Frozen yogurt and tofu: prepare for take-off
- Supermarket sales dominate in the ice cream and frozen novelties category
- Domestic producers perform better than multinational brand holding companies
- Nearly everyone eats ice cream, less so sorbet
- Brandy loyalty low
- Ice cream and frozen novelties with candy, frozen yogurt and sorbet best paired with fruit
- Health claims are not all that important to consumers, but low fat tops the list
- Consumers snack on and stock ice cream, but not frozen yogurt
- New fruit flavors will help grow the frozen yogurt segment
Insights and Opportunities
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- Get noticed in the frozen case
- Ice creams with beneficial health properties
- Other sweeteners—all-natural-sugar-free—and more ways to say “organic”
- Behavior-based marketing
- Store brands in restaurants
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- Figure 1: References to ice cream by brand name in restaurant menus, Q1 2009
- Global perspectives on ice cream
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Fit or Fat
- What’s it all about?
- Specifics
- Implications
- Trend: Premiumization and Indulgence
- What’s it all about?
- Specifics
- Implications
- Trend: Purity
- What’s it all about?
- Specifics
- Implications
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- A mature market shows strong, but unsteady growth
- Bursting of the diet and ingredient bubble
- Sales and forecast of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt and frozen novelties
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
- Walmart sales
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Ice cream parlors as compelling alternatives
- New types of ice cream and frozen yogurt parlors emerge
- Fast food chains offering ice-cream-like products
- Dessert alternatives to ice cream
- Margin erosion and the rise of private label
- DIY ice cream and frozen yogurt
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Largest, most mature segments remain mostly flat
- Organic products drive appeal within smaller segments
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment
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- Figure 4: Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties at FDMx, segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance—Ice Cream
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- Key points
- Consumers form opinions and try ice creams based on what they can see at the shelf
- End of the low-carb craze
- Ingredient innovation is key to further growth
- Sales and forecast of ice cream
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- Figure 5: FDMx sales of ice cream, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Frozen Novelties
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- Key points
- Low-carb craze, and health brands showed mixed performance
- Strong performance of indulgent novelties, theme pops fizzle
- Getting it right with frozen novelties
- Sales and forecast of frozen novelties
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- Figure 6: FDMx sales of frozen novelties, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
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- Key points
- Private label encroaches
- Sorbet combos and premium offerings
- Sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices
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- Figure 7: FDMx sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, 2003-13
Segment Performance—Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
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- Key points
- Organic designation opens up growth opportunities
- Frozen yogurt/tofu consumers look for cues of quality; more upscale
- New claims spaces likely to drive growth in the future
- Sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/tofu
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- Figure 8: FDMx sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2003-13
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Consumer attitudes drive purchase location
- Supermarkets are the retail venue of choice for most ice cream purchases
- Walmart will not draw sales away from supermarkets
- Convenience can be a strong driver of channel choice
- Sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt, by channel
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- Figure 9: FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, 2006 and 2008
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Most ice cream is (and will continue to be) sold in supermarkets
- Ice cream as a lure back to supermarkets
- Supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 10: U.S. supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2003-08
Retail Channels—Drug Stores and Other
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- Key points
- Convenience factor and fill-in trips help drive drug store sales
- Drug store and other sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 11: U.S. drug store and other FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2003-08
Retail Channels—Natural Channels
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- Figure 12: Natural product supermarket sales of ice cream and other frozen treats, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-09
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- Figure 13: Natural product supermarket retail sales of ice cream and other frozen treats, by organic, 2007-09
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Market Drivers
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- Money to spend on ice cream and trend towards dining in
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- Figure 14: Real disposable personal income per capita, by month, Jan 2006-Feb 2009
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- Figure 15: Spending at restaurants compared to last year, November 2008
- An aging population poised to eat less ice cream
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- Figure 16: Population, by age, 2004-14
- Kids in the household key to consumption
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- Figure 17: Households by presence of children, 1998-2008
- Obesity concerns
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- Figure 18: Prevalence of overweight and obesity among Americans, by age and gender, 1988-2002
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Wells Weight Watchers spurs growth, Blue Bell is “best.”
- Private label shows significant growth
- Manufacturer sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt
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- Figure 19: Manufacturer sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share—Ice Cream
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- Key points
- Nestlé sees sales slip on diet, fad, and old products, soar on new products
- Unilever’s traditional and diet offerings perform poorly
- Product quality drives demand; most consumers buy only one at a time
- Manufacturer and brand sales of ice cream
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- Figure 20: Selected brand sales and market share of ice cream at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share—Frozen Novelties
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- Key points
- Diet frozen novelties see great success
- New frozen novelty segment entrants see wins through consumer curiosity
- Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen novelties
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- Figure 21: Selected brand sales and market share of frozen novelties at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share—Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
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- Key points
- Segment dominated by Nestlé, specifically, Häagen-Dazs
- Manufacturer and brand sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices
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- Figure 22: Selected brand sales and market share of sherbet/sorbet/ices at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share—Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
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- Key points
- Organic and non-dairy trend still hot in ice cream
- New distribution helps drive stronger sales
- Flavor and ingredient innovations in frozen yogurt drive sales
- Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt/tofu
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- Figure 23: Selected brand sales and market share of frozen yogurt/tofu at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
SPINS Natural Channel Data
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- Natural channel sales by segment and brand
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- Figure 24: Natural product supermarket retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2007-09
- Soy dessert maker Turtle Mountain leads segment, other larger brands challenged
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- Figure 25: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2007 and 2009
- Non-dairy sales strong, soy suffers to alternatives
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- Figure 26: Natural product supermarket retail sales of non-dairy ice cream and frozen novelties, by type, 2007-09
Brand Qualities
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- Blue Bell
- Ben & Jerry’s
- Breyers
- Edy’s/Dreyer’s
- Häagen-Dazs (and Häagen-Dazs Reserve)
- Klondike
- Wells Blue Bunny, Bomb Pops, and Weight Watchers
- Private Label
Innovation and Innovators
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- Ice cream
- Private label takes on the characteristics of branded ice cream
- Seasonal products hit the mainstream
- Private label organics
- Frozen novelties and frozen yogurt/tofu
- Novel forms
- Non-dairy/frozen yogurt/tofu
- Flavor
- Sorbets/sherbet/ices
- New drink-like flavors
- Health claims—antioxidants and vitamins
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
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- Figure 27: TV advertising expenditures by leading ice cream parent companies, 2007 and 2008
- The importance of packaging
- Breyers
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- Figure 28: Unilever/Breyers television ad, 2008
- Häagen-Dazs
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- Figure 29: Nestlé/Häagen-Dazs television ad, 2008
- Blue Bell
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- Figure 30: Blue bell ice cream/Blue Bell television ad, 2008
- Klondike
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- Figure 31: Klondike television ad, 2008
Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Consumption
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- Key points
- Trended usage
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- Figure 32: Trended household usage of ice cream and sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, 2004-08
- Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption today
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- Figure 33: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by gender, February 2009
- Younger consumers display higher consumption
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- Figure 34: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by age, February 2009
- The impact of income on less traditional frozen treats
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- Figure 35: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by HH income, February 2009
- Presence of children drives increased consumption
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- Figure 36: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by children in HH, February 2009
Brand Preferences
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- Key points
- Brand loyalty low for all frozen treats
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- Figure 37: Brand preference, by frozen treat, February 2009
- Gender roles in brand selection
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- Figure 38: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by gender, February 2009
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- Figure 39: Frozen yogurt and gelato brand preferences, by gender, February 2009
- The young and the fickle
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- Figure 40: Ice cream brand and frozen novelty preferences, by age, February 2009
- Southern loyalty
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- Figure 41: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by region, February 2009
Flavor Preferences
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- Key points
- Preferences vary by treat type
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- Figure 42: Flavor preference, by frozen treat, February 2009
- Ice cream and frozen novelty preferences
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- Figure 43: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
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- Figure 44: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by age, February 2009
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- Figure 45: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by region, February 2009
- Interest in mix-ins
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- Figure 46: Interest in packaged mix-ins, February 2009
The Health Factor
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- Key points
- Low fat, low calorie, low sugar, low cholesterol
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- Figure 47: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, February 2009
- Health matters: the role of gender, age and region in determining degree
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- Figure 48: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by gender and age, February 2009
- Is ice cream unhealthy?
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- Figure 49: Ice cream health attitudes, by gender, February 2009
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- Figure 50: Ice cream health attitudes, by age, February 2009
Purchase Locations
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- Key points
- Purchase locations
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- Figure 51: Frozen treat purchase location, by age, February 2009
Consumption Habits and Interest
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- Key points
- Ice cream consumption—convenience and pairing
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- Figure 52: Interest in portability and pairing of ice cream, by age, February 2009
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- Figure 53: Interest in portability and pairing of ice cream, by number of children in household, February 2009
- Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits
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- Figure 54: Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits, by gender, February 2009
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- Figure 55: Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits, by age, February 2009
Frozen Yogurt—Taste v. Health
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- Key points
- Increasing frozen yogurt consumption
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- Figure 56: Frozen yogurt preferences, by gender, February 2009
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- Figure 57: Frozen yogurt preferences, by age, February 2009
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- Figure 58: Frozen yogurt preferences, by region, February 2009
- The health factor
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- Figure 59: Health attributes of frozen yogurt, by gender, February 2009
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- Figure 60: Health attributes of frozen yogurt, by region, February 2009
Cluster Analysis
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- Purists
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Frozen Fans
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Bitties
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 61: Ice cream clusters, February 2009
- Figure 62: Other frozen treat consumption, by ice cream clusters, February 2009
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- Figure 63: Frozen treat brand preferences, by ice cream clusters, February 2009
- Figure 64: Frozen treat flavor preferences, by ice cream clusters, February 2009
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- Figure 65: Ice cream attitudes, by ice cream clusters, February 2009
- Figure 66: Frozen yogurt attitudes, by ice cream clusters, February 2009
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- Figure 67: Importance of health attributes in ice cream, by ice cream clusters, February 2009
- Figure 68: Interested in packaged mix-ins, by ice cream cluster, February 2009
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 69: Ice cream clusters, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 70: Ice cream clusters, by age, February 2009
- Figure 71: Ice cream clusters, by HH income, February 2009
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- Figure 72: Ice cream clusters, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups—Age by Gender
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- Young men key to market…
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- Figure 73: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by age by gender, February 2009
- … yet lack loyalty
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- Figure 74: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by age and gender, February 2009
- Keeping their attention
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- Figure 75: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by age and gender, February 2009
IRI/Builders Panel—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of ice cream/sherbet
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—ice cream
- Brand map
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- Figure 76: Brand map, selected brands of ice cream, by household penetration, 2008
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 77: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ice cream, by household penetration, 2008
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Brand map
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- Figure 78: Brand map, selected brands of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by household penetration, 2008
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 79: Key purchase measures for the top brands of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by household penetration, 2008
- Overview of frozen novelties
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen novelties
- Brand map
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- Figure 80: Brand map, selected brands of frozen novelties, by household penetration, 2008
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 81: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen novelties, by household penetration, 2008
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Regional trends at play
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- Figure 82: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by region, February 2009
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- Figure 83: Frozen yogurt brand preferences, by region, February 2009
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- Figure 84: Ice cream health attitudes, by region, February 2009
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- Figure 85: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by region, February 2009
- Additional income impacts
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- Figure 86: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by HH income, February 2009
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- Figure 87: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by HH income, February 2009
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- Figure 88: Ice cream health attitudes, by HH income, February 2009
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- Figure 89: Frozen treat purchase location, by HH income, February 2009
- Trended brand usage
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- Figure 90: Top ten brands of ice cream used by households, 2006-08
- Frozen yogurt flavors
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- Figure 91: Frozen yogurt flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
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- Figure 92: Frozen yogurt flavor preference, by age, February 2009
- Gelato flavors
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- Figure 93: Gelato flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
- Ice cream behaviors and interests
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- Figure 94: Eating ice cream, by gender, February 2009
Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- IRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix: Trade Associations
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