Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The bad news first…
- …and then the good news
- What will it take to keep them coming?
- Innovations and strengths
- Restaurant analyses:
- Brand analysis: McDonald’s
- Advertising is a “breakfast eat breakfast” world
- The Consumer section in brief
- Fast food the weekday leader
- Spending is down
- Convenience, quality and cost hold the trump cards during the week
- Weekends are about leisurely breakfast out
- How to steal customers
- What consumers want to see more of
Insights and Opportunities
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- Key points
- Breakfast’s value proposition
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- Figure 1: Incentives to dine at restaurants, by age, November 2009
- Give them the menu items they want
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- Figure 2: Change in restaurant breakfast menu items versus consumer interest in menu items, by type of item, 2009
- Give them a customizable menu
- Light is right…
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- Figure 3: Attitudes regarding healthy eating, 2003-08
- Wooing the breakfast skipper means expanding hours
- Luring in the family
- Continue promoting the importance of breakfast
- If it isn’t easy, they won’t come
Inspire Insights
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- Alpha Mom’s
- What's it about?
- What we've seen
- Breakfast with an Alpha Mom
- Implications for restaurant breakfast purveyors
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Traffic bleeding from restaurants to the kitchen table
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- Figure 4: Ways consumers have cut down on restaurant spending, November 2009
- Keeping customers out of their kitchens
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- Figure 5: Prices for breakfast at home versus out, for one and four, 2009
- Meals eaten away from home enhance their price-competitiveness
- Keep an eye on at-home breakfast trends
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Strong historical growth, but a tempered future
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- Figure 6: Expenditures for breakfast and brunch purchased at restaurants and carry-out venues, 2003-13
- Figure 7: Expenditures for breakfast and brunch purchased at restaurants and carry-out venues, limited service and full service, 2003-08
- Sales by daypart
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- Figure 8: Full-service versus limited-service restaurants, percentage of sales, by daypart, 2008
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Restaurant breakfast takeaways
- Today’s forecast: Lots of rain and clouds
- Bottom line—restaurant industry in recession
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- Figure 9: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, November 2007-October 2008
- Consumer reaction to recession impacts restaurant breakfast spending
- Rapidly changing commodity prices provide added strain for restaurants
- What this means for restaurants
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- Figure 10: Producer Price Index, key farm products, January 2004-November 2008
- All aboard the CPI rollercoaster!
- Implications for restaurants
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- Figure 11: Consumer Price Index, key consumer items, January 2004-November 2008
- Consumer debt overload
- Implications for restaurants
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- Figure 12: Consumer credit outstanding, dollar change, by quarter, 2007-08
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- Figure 13: Consumer credit outstanding, percentage change, by quarter, 2007-08
- Falling home values and equity values create negative spending outlooks
- Implications for restaurants
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- Figure 14: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, January 2004-October 2008
- Despite economic woes, dining out remains a shining light for some
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- Figure 15: Where consumers spend their “extra” money, July 2008
- Healthy eating habits a boon and a bust
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- Figure 16: Breakfast usage, usage frequency, and mean weekly use, September 2008
Innovation and Innovators
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- Key points
- Spinning value
- Menu innovations
- Thinking outside the protein box
- Morning drinks with a twist
- Enticing customers with breakfast offerings beyond the “same old, same old”
- Ethnic influences
- Health innovation
- Breakfast sandwiches
- Smaller portions for smaller appetites
- Full-service quality with fast-service convenience
- Extending/modifying length of daypart
- Comfort food makes everything seem okay
Restaurant Analysis: Hardee’s
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- Key points
- The big picture
- On-track trend: The comfort food/convenience combo
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- Figure 17: Top ingredient claims, Hardee’s
- Opportunity: Tweak menu to offer healthy options, all-day breakfast
Restaurant Analysis: IHOP
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- Key points
- The big picture
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- Figure 18: IHOP system-wide same-store sales, percentage increase, 2005-08
- On-track trend: Specialty menus
- Healthful choices—and positive spins on less healthful choices
- All-you-can-eat LTO for 2009
- Senior specials
- On-track trend: Reasonably priced comfort food
- On-track trend: Menu items that blur daypart lines
- On-track trend: The convenience war
- Opportunity: More ethnic choices
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- Figure 19: IHOP demographic profile, January-November 2007
Restaurant Analysis: Denny’s
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- Key points
- The big picture
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- Figure 20: Denny’s same-store sales and check averages, growth rate, 2007 and 2008
- On-track trend: Aggressive advertising
- On-track trend: Specialty menus
- Healthy options
- Senior menu
- Kids’ menu
- On-track trend: Angling against QSR convenience and price advantage
- On-track trend: Targeting the Hispanic demographic
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- Figure 21: Denny’s demographic profile, January-November 2007
- Opportunity: Keeping it in check
Restaurant Brand Qualities: McDonald’s Breakfast Case Study
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- Key points
- Healthy brand equals healthy sales
- Leading the charge: McDonald’s sets the bar
- For coffee…
- For breakfast…
- For value…
- McDonald’s tries to show it can be “easy being green”
- Bottom line: The McDonald’s brand has become synonymous with success
Advertising and Promotion
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- Recession fuels aggressive comparison advertising
- Giveaways encourage product sampling
- Denny’s takes a “no holds barred” approach
- Pitting breakfast out against breakfast at home
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- Figure 22: McDonalds breakfast, 2008
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- Figure 23: Jack in the Box breakfast, 2008
- Value promotions
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- Figure 24: International House of Pancakes (IHOP), 2008
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- Figure 25: McDonalds breakfast, 2008
- Real food. Fresh ingredients
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- Figure 26: The Original Pancake House, 2008
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- Figure 27: Denny’s, 2008
- Mini meals
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- Figure 28: Sonic, 2008
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- Figure 29: Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, 2008
Breakfast Usage and Mean Use by Location
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- Key points
- Usage overview
- Weekday breakfast usage: an overview
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- Figure 30: Weekday breakfast usage, usage frequency, and mean use, by location, November 2008
- Weekend breakfast usage: an overview
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- Figure 31: Weekend breakfast usage, usage frequency, and mean use, by location, November 2008
Restaurant Breakfast Spending Trends
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- Key points
- Restaurant breakfast spending trends: an overview
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- Figure 32: Restaurant breakfast spending behavior compared to last year, November 2008
- Restaurant breakfast spending trends: in-depth
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- Figure 33: Restaurant breakfast spending behavior compared to last year, by gender, November 2008
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- Figure 34: Restaurant breakfast spending behavior compared to last year, by HH income, November 2008
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- Figure 35: Restaurant breakfast spending behavior compared to last year, by presence of children, November 2008
Most Important Restaurant Breakfast Selection Factors
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- Key points
- Most important restaurant breakfast selection factors: an overview
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- Figure 36: Most important restaurant breakfast selection factors, weekday versus weekend, November 2008
- Most important restaurant breakfast selection factors: weekdays
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- Figure 37: Most important weekday restaurant breakfast selection factors, by gender, November 2008
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- Figure 38: Most important weekday restaurant breakfast selection factors, by age, November 2008
- Most important restaurant breakfast selection factors: weekends
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- Figure 39: Most important weekend restaurant breakfast selection factors, by gender, November 2008
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- Figure 40: Most important weekend restaurant breakfast selection factors, by age, November 2008
Attitudes Toward Eating Breakfast Out
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- Key points
- Attitudes toward eating breakfast out: an overview
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- Figure 41: Attitudes toward eating breakfast out, November 2008
- Attitudes toward eating breakfast out: in depth
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward eating breakfast out, by gender, November 2008
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward eating breakfast out, by age, November 2008
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward eating breakfast out, by HH income, November 2008
Attitudes Toward Eating Weekday Breakfast Out
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- Key points
- Attitudes toward eating weekday breakfast out: an overview
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward eating weekday breakfast out, November 2008
- Attitudes toward eating weekday breakfast out: in depth
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- Figure 46: Attitudes toward eating weekday breakfast out, by age, November 2008
Switching Breakfast Venues
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- Key points
- Switching breakfast venues: an overview
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- Figure 47: Motivations for switching breakfast locations, November 2008
- Switching breakfast venues: in depth
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- Figure 48: Motivations for switching breakfast locations, by age, November 2008
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- Figure 49: Motivations for switching breakfast locations, by presence of children, November 2008
Breakfast Menu Items Consumers Want To See More Of
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- Key points
- Breakfast menu items consumers want to see more of: an overview
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- Figure 50: Breakfast menu items consumers want to see more of, November 2008
- Breakfast menu items consumers want to see more of: in depth
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- Figure 51: Breakfast menu items consumers want to see more of, by gender, November 2008
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- Figure 52: Breakfast menu items consumers want to see more of, by HH income, November 2008
Custom Groups: Coffee Drinkers, Breakfast Skippers and Lovers, and Full-Time Employees
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- Most important restaurant breakfast selection factors: weekdays
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- Figure 53: Most important weekday restaurant breakfast selection factors, by custom cross-tabs, November 2008
- Most important restaurant breakfast selection factors: weekends
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- Figure 54: Most important weekend restaurant breakfast selection factors, by custom cross-tabs, November 2008
- Attitudes toward eating breakfast out
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- Figure 55: Attitudes toward eating breakfast out, by custom groups, November 2008
- Attitudes toward eating weekday breakfast out
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- Figure 56: Attitudes toward eating weekday breakfast out, by custom groups, November 2008
- Breakfast menu items consumers want to see more of
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- Figure 57: Breakfast menu items consumers want to see more of, November 2008
Cluster Analysis
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- Treaters
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Budgeters
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Eaters
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 58: Breakfast foodservice clusters, November 2008
- Figure 59: Weekday breakfast usage, by breakfast foodservice clusters, November 2008
- Figure 60: Weekend breakfast usage, by breakfast foodservice clusters, November 2008
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- Figure 61: Most important restaurant breakfast selection factors, by breakfast foodservice clusters, November 2008
- Figure 62: Attitudes toward eating breakfast out, by breakfast foodservice clusters, November 2008
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 63: Breakfast foodservice clusters, by gender, November 2008
- Figure 64: Breakfast foodservice clusters, by age, November 2008
- Figure 65: Breakfast foodservice clusters, by HH income, November 2008
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- Figure 66: Breakfast foodservice clusters, by race, November 2008
- Figure 67: Breakfast foodservice clusters, by Hispanic origin, November 2008
- Cluster methodology
Appendix: Trade Associations
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