Table of Contents
Issues in the Market
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- Definitions and abbreviations
Insights and Opportunities
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- Younger greys – a lifestage opportunity
- Extending ethnic segmentation
- End of month purchases under threat
- No reason to go out
- Blog slobs
- Computer workouts
- Mobile extension
- Well being dressings
Fast Forward Trends
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- Trend: World Gone Green - is Eco becoming the New Ego?
- What is it?
- How is the consumer giving expression to it?
- What does it mean for brands?
- Trend: Carnivore, Herbivore... Locavore
- What is it?
- Why’s it happening?
- What it means?
- Trend: Sense of the Intense
- What is it?
- Where’s it moving to?
- What’s the opportunity?
- Trend: Brand Experience
- What is it?
- Where are we seeing it?
- Where’s the opportunity?
- Trend: Agelessness
- What is it?
- What’s the opportunity?
Broader Market Environment
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- Demographics
- Ageing comes of age
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- Figure 1: Population breakdown, by age, 2003, 2008 and 2013
- Half and half
- Age – The era of young greys
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- Figure 2: Male population change, by age, 2003-08 and 2008-13
- Figure 3: Female population change, by age, 2003-08 and 2008-13
- Figure 4: Total population change, by age, 2003-08 and 2008-13
- Babies back in fashion
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- Figure 5: Births and fertility, 2003-13
- Mature mummies
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- Figure 6: Births and fertility change, by age of mother, 2003-07
- Reinvigorated population
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- Figure 7: Population numbers and growth, 1997-2007
- Immigration prevents population decline
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- Figure 8: Births and fertility, 1997-2007
- Time for the retired
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- Figure 9: Lifestage changes, 2003-08 and 2008-13
- Overseas marriages disguise statistics
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- Figure 10: Marriages & Divorces, 1998-2013
- Economic
- Matching incomes to spend
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- Figure 11: Spending within & outside means, annual real changes in PDI and consumer expenditure, 1998-2013
- Spend exceeds income growth in seven years in past decade
- Per capita debt reaches £21,300
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- Figure 12: Secured and unsecured debt, 1997-2007
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- Figure 13: Cost of servicing debt, 1990-2007
- Already some sensible borrowing
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- Figure 14: Net unsecured credit, 2003-07
- Consumers funded spending in 2007 from borrowing
- A decade of increasing wealth
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- Figure 15: Tax and incomes, 1997-2007
- Incomes now under pressure
- The future
- Short-term belt tightening
- Baton passes from consumer to corporate sector
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- Figure 16: Past and future trends for main economic indicators, 2001-07 and 2007-13
In-home Food
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- Market size and trends
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- Figure 17: In-home food sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 18: In-home food trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Healthy eating message continues to shape the market
- Organics, fair trade and ethical yet to achieve scale
- Convenience comes of age
- 5-a-day bites back
- Forecast
- Steady, if not dynamic
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- Figure 19: In-home food market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 20: in-home food market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Health to remain crucial market driver
- Increasing affluence drives growth
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Analysing the edible oils consumer
- The Reducers (28% of sample)
- What’s Oil the Fuss About? (WOFAs) (52% of sample)
- It’s Oil Good (20% of sample)
Non-alcoholic Beverages
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- Market size and trends
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- Figure 21: Non-alcoholic drinks sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 22: Non-alcoholic drinks trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- In the frontline of health and nutritional trends
- Innovate and segment
- Carbonates go flat
- Clear winner in fizzy drinks fallout
- Hot beverages blow hot...and not so hot
- 5-A-Day is so good for market growth
- Energy drinks punch well above their weight
- Forecast
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- Figure 23: Non-alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 24: Non-alcoholic drinks market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Seeing through the bottled water consumer
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- Figure 25: Main reasons for drinking bottled water, March 2007
Alcoholic Drinks
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- Market size and trends
- Boozing our way through £41 billion a year
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- Figure 26: Alcoholic drinks sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 27: Alcoholic drinks trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Tastes, fashion and attitudes shape direction
- The deft hand of regulation and legislation
- Lager losing its ‘liquid gold’ status
- Dwindling ales and stouts sector
- Wine the major contributor to alcohol sales growth
- Cider – a triumph of ice-cube marketing!
- Spirits sectors take different growth tracks
- Forecast
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- Figure 28: Non-alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 29: Non-alcoholic drinks market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- The wine consumer in more depth
- Wine Chill-outs (21%)
- Social Drinkers/Unconcerned (38%)
- Wine Enthusiasts (16%)
- Wine Novices (25%)
Personal Care
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- OTC pharmaceuticals market size and trends
- A sector that shrugged off price deregulation
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- Figure 30: OTC pharmaceutical product sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 31: OTC pharmaceutical product trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Grocery multiple interest boosts volumes and undercuts brands
- Deregulation particularly favoured minor ailment sector
- Alternatives become less alternative!
- Self-diagnostics cash in on 21st Century consumer mood
- Future OTC medicine prospects
- Personal care market size and trends
- Market performance
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- Figure 32: Personal care sales value by sub-sector, 2007
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- Figure 33: Personal care trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Haircare brings the salon into the bathroom
- Innovation drives make-up
- Men getting there, but slowly
- Oral care goes beyond just the teeth
- Anti-ageing the holy grail in skincare
- Future
- Forecast
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- Figure 34: Personal care and otc pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 35: Personal care and otc pharmaceuticals market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Listen to me!
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- Figure 36: Attitudes towards performance of cosmetics and toiletries, September 2007
Clothing and Adornment
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- Market size and trends
- Overall trends
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- Figure 37: Adornment sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 38: Adornment trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Volatile trading picture
- Changing consumer sentiment
- Womenswear
- More retail exposure for women’s underwear
- Menswear
- Childrenswear
- Kids growing older younger
- Footwear
- Shoe buying is so good for the sole
- Jewellery and watches
- Forecast
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- Figure 39: Adornment market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 40: Adornment market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Battle of the sexes in the clothing market
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards clothes shopping, most popular statements – women, June 2007
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards clothes shopping, most popular statements – men, June 2007
Eating Out
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- Market size and trends
- Eating out means piling on the £s
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- Figure 43: Eating out and takeaways sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 44: Eating out & takeaways trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- More outlets mean more demand
- Looking forward to the next course
- Fast food meant fast growth…
- … but is now facing competition
- Pubs remain the nation’s favourite
- Other restaurants experience contrasting fortunes
- Forecast
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- Figure 45: Eating out and takeaways market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 46: Eating out and takeaways market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Eating out will bear brunt of downturn
- Consumer insight
- Developing menus the key to growth
- Non-adventurous (35% of the population)
- Main Course only (25% of the population)
- From the Specials Board (16% of the population)
- Confident Diners (24% of the population)
Technology and Communications
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- Market size and trends
- Technology innovation drives consumer desire
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- Figure 47: Technology & communications sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 48: Technology & Communications trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Bringing applications together
- Talk and text surge ahead
- Mobile mania reduces fixed-line demand
- Homes morph from narrowband to broadband
- Sky-high performance from digital TV sector
- Bigger and flatter ‘must have’ TVs power brown goods sector
- Audio and DVD faces stronger competition from multifunction devices
- SatNav sales guide strong in-car entertainment sector growth
- Changing the way we use computers
- Peripherals and software drive ahead
- New order in music distribution continues to hit pre-recorded sales
- Revolution in photography – pixels give way to style
- Forecast
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- Figure 49: technology & communications market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 50: Technology & communications market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Unbundling the mobile user
- Mobile-mad (28% of respondents)
- Forever Turned On (12% of respondents)
- A Necessary Burden (15% of respondents)
- Unconcerned (45% of respondents)
Entertainment
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- Market size and trends
- Facing competition from inside the home
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- Figure 51: Entertainment sales value by sub-sector, 2007
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- Figure 52: Entertainment trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Looking good is the biggest expenditure
- More options competing for the ‘on the town’ pound
- Marketing pays off for some of the days out sector
- Sports participation scores with convenience and activity extension
- Betting and gaming growth reflects softening of attitudes
- Forecast
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- Figure 53: Entertainment market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 54: Entertainment market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Ticking the boxes of the National Lottery player
- Lottery Lovers (42% of the population or 20.7 million adults aged 16+)
- In-betweens (29% of the adult population or 14.3 million adults aged 16+)
- Lottery Avoiders (29% of the adult population or 14.3 million adults aged 16+)
News, Print and Tobacco
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- Market size and trends
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- Figure 55: Newsagents’ goods sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 56: Newsagents’ goods trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Stubbing out the cigarette market
- Ever declining circulations
- Still can’t beat a good book
- The hallmark of greetings cards is sector maturity
- Varying fortunes for magazines and comic publishers
- Forecast
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- Figure 57: Newsagents’ goods market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 58: Forecast of the value of newsagents’ goods market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
Home and Garden
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- Market size and trends
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- Figure 59: Home & garden sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 60: Home & garden trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Growing interest in home design doesn’t translate to spend
- Changing uses of in-home spaces
- Household furniture provides built-in growth
- Domestic chores market fails to shine
- Garden products struggle to reach full growth
- In search of sanitary perfection
- Upstairs, downstairs…
- Price deflation knocks stuffing out of soft furnishings
- Price pressure pans pots and plates
- Forecasts
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- Figure 61: home and garden goods market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 62: home and garden goods market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- And so to bed…
- Group 1: Modest Needs (43% of sample)
- Group 2: Practical Purposes (35% of sample)
- Group 3: Design Desires (22% of sample)
Personal Transport
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- Market size and trends
- Life on four wheels is getting expensive
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- Figure 63: Personal transport sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 64: Personal transport trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- It’s personal, not environmental, cost that matters
- Don’t fill it up
- New sales face much stronger competition from used cars
- Changing car design means a substantial boost for after-care sector
- Attractions of two wheels? … it’s on trend, but a flat picture
- Forecast
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- Figure 65: Personal transport market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 66: Forecast of personal transport expenditure, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Car Enthusiasts (20% of the sample)
- Safety Gamblers (31% of the sample)
- Safety First (27% of the sample)
- A to Bs (22% of the sample)
Housing
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- Market size and trends
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- Figure 67: Housing value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 68: Housing trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Democratisation of home ownership
- Smaller dwellings and a castle home and abroad
- Rapid growth in personal balance sheets
- Property caught in the slipstream of world credit crisis
- Mortgage borrowing exceeds £1 trillion
- The home as a financial tool
- Changes in mortgagor profile
- Credit crunch brings market to a halt
- Renting gets more attractive
- Householders aren’t doing it for themselves
- Do it for me
- Mood, sanctuary and ‘instant’ bring new approaches to DIY
- Local taxes make bigger demands on household budgets
- Stamp duty ensnares more home buyers
- High energy inflation in fuel costs
- Forecasts
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- Figure 69: Housing market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 70: Forecast of housing market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Attitudes towards property investment
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- Figure 71: Attitudes towards property investment, June 2007
Holiday and Travel
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- Market size and trends
- Holiday-taking trends
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- Figure 72: Holiday & travel sales value, by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 73: Holiday and travel trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- More but shorter holidays…and we’re booking them ourselves
- Internet adds new elements to travel booking
- Long-duration holidays power the market…
- …but short breaks enjoying dramatic growth
- Spending begins at home? Not anymore
- Travel – prices going in two directions
- Forecasts
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- Figure 74: Holiday and travel market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 75: Forecast of value of holiday and travel market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
- Understanding the no-frills flyer
- No-frills thrilled (19% or 9.5 million adults aged 15+)
- Thrifty Groaners (14% or 7 million adults aged 15+)
- Disengaged (19% or 9.5 million adults 15+)
Personal Finance
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- Market size and trends
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- Figure 76: Personal finance sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 77: Personal finance trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- How things have changed in six months
- Changing face of distribution and technology
- Planning for old age tops expenditure
- Occupational schemes now a closed book
- Private schemes taking up some of the slack
- Private motor sector bows under pricing pressure
- Domestic property insurance continues on an upward path
- Creditor insurance – making hay while the sun shines
- Low claims ratio ensures solid performance from the accident sector
- Lower premiums for life cover slow growth
- Charities benefit from more effective marketing
- Rapid growth in charges, fees and commissions
- Forecasts
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- Figure 78: Personal finance market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 79: Forecast of value of personal finance market, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
- Factors used:
- Consumer insight
A miscellany – the remaining spend
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- Market size and trends
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- Figure 80: Miscellaneous sales value by sub-sector, 2007
- Figure 81: Miscellaneous trends at current prices, 1997-2007
- Education
- Medical services spend
- Funerals
- Pets
- Nappies and baby wipes
- Other services
- Forecast
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- Figure 82: Miscellaneous market, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 83: Miscellaneous market, at constant prices, 2003-13
Market Sizes Appendix
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- In-home food
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- Figure 84: Market value of in-home food products, 1997-2007
- Non-alcoholic drinks
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- Figure 85: Market value of non-alcoholic drinks, 1997-2007
- Alcoholic drinks
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- Figure 86: Market value of alcoholic drinks, 1997-2007
- Adornment
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- Figure 87: Market value of clothing products, 1997-2007
- Personal care
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- Figure 88: Market value of personal care products, 1997-2007
- Eating out and takeaways
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- Figure 89: Market value of eating out and takeaways products, 1997-2007
- Technology
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- Figure 90: Market value of technology products, 1997-2007
- Entertainment
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- Figure 91: Market value of entertainment products, 1997-2007
- Newsagents goods
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- Figure 92: Market value of newsagents goods, 1997-2007
- Home and garden
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- Figure 93: Market value of home and garden products, 1997-2007
- Personal transport
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- Figure 94: Market value of personal transport, 1997-2007
- Housing
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- Figure 95: Market value of housing, 1997-2007
- Holidays & travel
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- Figure 96: Market value of holidays, 1997-2007
- Personal finance
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- Figure 97: Market value of personal finance, 1997-2007
- Miscellaneous
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- Figure 98: Market value of miscellaneous products, 1997-2007
Winners and Losers – The Consumer Angle
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- Consumer research analysis: spending plans, past and future
- Those already feeling the pinch
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- Figure 99: Spending plans cancelled, February 2008
- Holidays feel the heat of domestic finance woes
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- Figure 100: Vulnerable population sectors for main holidays, February 2008
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- Figure 101: Vulnerable population sectors for weekend breaks, February 2008
- Home improvements get shelved
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- Figure 102: Vulnerable population sectors for DIY/home improvements, February 2008
- Savings plans dashed
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- Figure 103: Vulnerable population sectors for saving, February 2008
- Car purchasing stalls
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- Figure 104: Vulnerable population sectors for main cars, February 2008
- Clothes left hanging
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- Figure 105: Vulnerable population sectors for clothes, footwear/jewellery, February 2008
- More resilient electricals and entertainment spending
- Reasons for cancelling/postponing spending plans
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- Figure 106: Reasons for cancelling spending plans, February 2008
- General cost of living concerns
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- Figure 107: Cost of day-to-day living, February 2008
- Caution is a response to changing financial climate
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- Figure 108: Just felt should be more careful, February 2008
- Nasty shocks in brown envelopes
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- Figure 109: Had some big household bills, February 2008
- Downturn in income
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- Figure 110: Incomes down for other reasons, February 2008
- No more on the never-never
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- Figure 111: Had to pay off debt, February 2008
- Reasons for cancelling expenditure
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- Figure 112: Spending plans cancelled and reasons for cancelling, February 2008
- Future expenditure plans
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- Figure 113: Categories held in pent-up demand, February 2008
- Holidays continue to exert their grip on our spending plans
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- Figure 114: Pent-up demand for holidays, February 2008
- Putting money into the home
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- Figure 115: Pent-up demand for home improvements, February 2008
- Caution reigns in windfall
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- Figure 116: Pent-up demand for saving (putting money aside/rainy day), February 2008
- Granny’s charity
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- Figure 117: Pent-up demand for giving away to family or friends, February 2008
- Getting the debt monkey off our backs
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- Figure 118: Pent-up demand for paying off debt/credit card, February 2008
- Spending behavioural targets
- Sensible Spenders (14% of respondents who cancelled spending plans)
- What will affect their spending in the next year?
- Average Joes (31% of respondents who cancelled spending plans)
- What will affect their spending in the next year?
- Cautious Affluents (45% of respondents who cancelled spending plans)
- What will affect their spending in the next year?
- Credit Generation (10% of respondents who cancelled spending plans)
- What will affect their spending in the next year?
- Tenure status main determinant of spending plans
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- Figure 119: Adults who knew their housing status, February 2008
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- Figure 120: Behavioural groups 2007, by household status, February 2008
- Problems ahead for clothes, footwear, jewellery and travel
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- Figure 121: Postpone expenditure by households
- Renters less sensitive to market downturns
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- Figure 122: House ownership type, by attitudes towards spending, February 2008
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- Figure 123: House ownership type, by reasons cited for delaying or cutting back on spending plans in the past year, February 2008
- Appendix to section
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- Figure 124: Behavioural groups by socio-demograhic groups, February 2008
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- Figure 125: Behavioural groups 2007, by attitudes towards spending, February 2008
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- Figure 126: Behavioural groups by what they did not buy over the previous 12 months due to changes/uncertainty over household prices, February 2008
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- Figure 127: Behavioural groups by main reasons for delaying or cancelling spending plans in the past 12 months, February 2008
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- Figure 128: Behavioural groups by what they would buy if they came into money unexpectedly (around £31,000), February 2008
Winners and Losers – The Markets
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- Evaluation in current terms
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- Figure 129: Changing shares of main categories ofspend, at current prices, 1997-2007
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- Figure 130: Changing shares of individual categories ofspend, at current prices, 1997-2007
- Top 20 winners
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- Figure 131: Top 20 individual share growth areas, 1997-2007
- Top 20 losers
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- Figure 132: Bottom 20 individual declining share areas, 1997-2007
- Comparative growth rates
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- Figure 133: Comparisons of risers and fallers over the decade, 1997-2007, 1997-2002 and 2002-07
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- Figure 134: Comparative risers and fallers of individual sectors, 1997-2007
- Each sector has its story
- The real picture
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- Figure 135: Real growth, by main categories, 1997-2007
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- Figure 136: Real growth, by individual categories, 1997-2007
- Sensitivity to economic climate
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- Figure 137: Sensitivity of main categories of spend to main economic factors, 1997-2007
- Girls and their toys?
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