Mintel defines the milk category as including flavored, whole, low-fat and non-fat milk, as well as milk substitutes and beverages that contain milk components. The market grew to $14.6 billion in 2004, up 6.6% in current terms from 2003. The increase was a result of rising prices for raw milk, which are set by the government. The higher prices paid by bottlers were a result of fewer cows and higher feed prices. Some of these prices were pushed onto consumers, leading to an increase in category sales for the year.

But, the 2004 increase came after years of a flat market. Between 1999 and 2003, sales of milk in FDM, natural stores and convenience store channels increased only 3% in current terms, representing a decline of 7% in constant terms. Consumption of milk has been subject to steep competition from new beverages and dips in the numbers foods traditionally paired with milk. Furthermore, the number of kids under 14, a major group of milk consumers, increased only slightly (0.7%) in the past five years.

While most milk products, in general, are a mature commodity, many brands in sectors like flavored milk and milk substitutes are differentiating themselves from competitors, suggesting the mature landscape is moving towards change. This finding is supported by results from an exclusive Mintel consumer survey showing 54% of respondents say they can taste the difference between certain brands of milk. Still, at this point, 60% of sales through FDM channels are from private labels, most of which are not making any efforts to break out of their commodity status.

Categories of milk included in this report are:

whole milk (also known as full-fat milk)

nonfat (skim) milk, and low-fat (2%, 1%, and ½%) milk

flavored milk drinks, including chocolate milk, eggnog, and buttermilk

soymilk, kefir, rice milk and other milk substitutes

non-dairy beverages, defined as beverages that are considered “non-dairy” but are made from milk components such as dairy whey

Organic milk is also discussed, and where possible sales are identified, but it is considered a sub-segment within each of the segments listed above.

Creamers, half & half, powdered milk, milk for infants, and goats’ milk are not included in this report. Also excluded are sales of milk within the catering and industrial sectors, as well as schools and government-provided milk supplies. Shelf-stable milk is outside of the scope of this report.