American Lifestyles: Consumer Recovery and Reset Market Report 2023

Overview

• What you need to know
• This Report looks at the following areas
• Definition
• Market context
• Economic and other assumptions

Executive Summary

• Top takeaways
• Market overview
  • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast with best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2018-28
• Opportunities and challenges
• Consumers are looking to improve their financial situation as they continue to recover from months of inflation and economic uncertainty
  • Figure 2: Current financial situation, 2021-23
• • Figure 3: Goals for the next year, 2023
• While older generations look to improve their physical health, younger consumers exhibit heightened focus on mental wellbeing
  • Figure 4: Goals for the next year, by generation, 2023
• • Figure 5: Actions to achieve goals – Improve mental health, by generation, 2023
• Although consumers continue to worry about the state of the world, they are ready to refocus on their future and life goals
  • Figure 6: Political and news media fatigue, 2023
• • Figure 7: Future focus and recovery, 2023

America Today – Spotlight on Mintel Trends

• Locavore & Surroundings
• Refocusing on regional economies
• Case study: Uber Eats shuts down ghost kitchens
• Trading Up & Value
• From cutbacks to splurges: a post-pandemic spending shift
• Case study: AMC Theaters walks back on tiered ticketing
• Prepare for the Worst & Wellbeing
• Uncertainty as a new constant
• Case study: Ben & Jerry’s melting ice (cream) caps

America Today – The People

• American population trends
• Population growth continues to slow
• • Figure 8: Annual growth rate of the US population, 2012-22
• Declining births and the increasing age of first-time mothers
  • Figure 9: Annual births, general fertility rate, 2010-21
• Deaths are up as life expectancy declines
  • Figure 10: Number of deaths in the US, 2011-21
  • Figure 11: Life expectancy at birth, 2011-21
• Changing American households
• More Americans are living alone than ever before
  • Figure 12: Households, by number of members, 2012 and 2022
• • Figure 13: Households, by presence of related children, 2012-22
• • Figure 14: Married share of the population, 2012-22
  • Figure 15: Median age at first marriage, by gender, 2012-22
• Variations in households by race and Hispanic origin
  • Figure 16: Households with related children under 18 in the household, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2022

America Today – The Economy

• A promising economic landscape
• Economic recovery
• The US economy grew for the fourth consecutive quarter
  • Figure 17: Real GDP change from the previous period, Q1 2021-Q2 2023
• The unemployment rate remains near 50-year lows
  • Figure 18: Unemployment and underemployment, 2020-23
• Prices continue to subside – reaching their lowest levels since March 2021
  • Figure 19: Consumer Price Index change from the previous period, 2021-23
• Consumer impact
• Consumer confidence soared to its highest level in 20 months
  • Figure 20: Consumer Sentiment Index, 2021-23
• Households remain largely optimistic for their future finances
  • Figure 21: Opinions on financial future, 2022 and 2023
  • Figure 22: Consumers’ one-year ahead expected inflation rate, 2021-23
• • Figure 23: Inflation and wage growth over time, 2021-23
• Consumers’ travel appetite is high amid the warm weather
  • Figure 24: Summer spending expectations, by household investable assets, 2023

Total Market Overview

• Estimated US consumer spending in 2023
  • Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast with best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 26: Estimated consumer spending by category, at current prices ($ bn), 2023
• Largest categories of spending: healthcare, housing, transportation
• Healthcare
  • Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of healthcare products and services, at current prices, 2018-28
• Housing
  • Figure 28: 30-year fixed mortgage rate, monthly, 2009-23
  • Figure 29: Home purchase timeline, 2022
• • Figure 30: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of housing market, at current prices, 2018-28
• Transportation
  • Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of transportation, at current prices, 2018-28
• Fastest growing categories for the next five years
  • Figure 32: Market growth by category, 2023-28
• Non-alcoholic drinks
• Travel and vacation
• Alcoholic beverages (in home)
• Slowest growing categories for the next five years
• Home and garden
• Transportation
• In-home food

At a Glance: Self-care and Wellness

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Aspects of the Home

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Transportation

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Retail Shopping

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Dining Out

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Food at Home

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Alcoholic Beverages (At Home and On Premise)

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Give consumers the option to moderate, or not
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Leisure and Entertainment

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Travel and Vacations

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

At a Glance: Technology and Communications

• Analyst perspective
• Top takeaways
• What’s happened until now
• Looking ahead
• Opportunities
• Challenges
• Meet the expert

The Consumer – Fast Facts

Americans’ Financial Health and Planning

• Only a third of consumers consider their current financial situation to be healthy, notably fewer compared to previous years
  • Figure 33: Current financial situation, 2021-23
• Younger consumers and traditionally marginalized groups in particular are struggling
  • Figure 34: Current financial situation, by generation, 2023
• • Figure 35: Current financial situation, by race and Hispanic origin, 2023
• Increases in food/drink costs and gas prices are the most common effects of inflation
  • Figure 36: Impact of inflation, 2023
• Nearly half of consumers have cut back on leisure activities and luxuries due to inflation
  • Figure 37: Actions due to inflation, 2023
• While Millennials and Gen Xers have put off major purchases or chosen lower-cost alternatives, Gen Zers have leveraged alternative buying methods
  • Figure 38: Actions due to inflation, by generation, 2023
• Half of consumers plan to save extra funds for the future
  • Figure 39: Plans for extra money, 2023
• While Gen Zers are prioritizing entertainment, treats and gifts for others, Millennials are saving and investing
  • Figure 40: Plans for extra money, by generation, 2023

Consumer Goal Planning

• The majority of consumers are prioritizing their physical and financial health going into next year
• • Figure 41: Goals for the next year, 2023
• Consumers’ goals vary based on current lifestage
• • Figure 42: Goals for the next year, by generation, 2023
• Among those who seek to improve their physical health, the majority plan to exercise more
  • Figure 43: Actions to achieve goals – Improve physical health, by generation, 2023
• While financed-focused Gen Xers and Baby Boomers prioritize cutting back, younger consumers look for new income and investment opportunities
  • Figure 44: Actions to achieve goals – Improve financial status, by generation, 2023
• Gen Zers continue to be heavily focused on mental wellbeing
• • Figure 45: Actions to achieve goals – Improve mental health, by generation, 2023

Outlook on the Country

• The majority of consumers are worried about the state of the world, but young adults are more likely to feel it’s impacting their mental wellbeing
  • Figure 46: Outlook on state of the world, 2023
• • Figure 47: Outlook on state of the world, by generation, 2023
• Inflation and domestic politics are the most concerning social issues for American consumers
  • Figure 48: Top issues of concern, 2023
• Younger consumers show more concern about climate change and COVID-19 than older generations
  • Figure 49: Top issues of concern, by generation, 2023
• Three quarters of consumers are fatigued by political disputes and news media
  • Figure 50: Political and news media fatigue, 2023
• The majority of consumers are ready to refocus on the future and are looking to brands for help in coping and recovery
  • Figure 51: Future focus and recovery, 2023
• Younger and multicultural consumers expect more from brands
  • Figure 52: Future focus and recovery, by generation and by ethnicity and Hispanic origin, 2023

Americans’ Perceptions of Shopping Local

• Consumers who are financially healthy and have a higher household income are the most likely to prioritize shopping local
  • Figure 53: Prioritizing shopping local, by household income and by financial situation, 2023
• Parents and multigenerational households are more likely to buy local
  • Figure 54: Prioritizing shopping local, by parental status and by multigenerational household status, 2023
• Produce, proteins and service providers such as restaurants are considered the most important categories in which to buy local
  • Figure 55: Important categories in which to shop local, 2023
• Benefiting the local economy is a main driver behind buying local
  • Figure 56: Local shopping drivers and barriers, 2023
• The majority of consumers want to see more global brands partner with local businesses
  • Figure 57: Global partners, by generation, 2023
• • Figure 58: Buying “made in America,” by generation, 2023
• Brand spotlight: Kraft Heinz lends a hand to local businesses
  • Figure 59: Kraft Peanut Butter supports local businesses

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

• Data sources
• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms

Appendix – The Market

• • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of housing, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of health, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of health, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of healthcare products and services, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of transportation, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of transportation, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales transportation, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 73: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of personal finance, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communications, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communications, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 76: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of technology hardware and communications, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 79: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of home and garden market, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 82: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of restaurants and eating places, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 85: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of in-home food, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 86: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 88: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 89: Total US retail sales and forecast of vacations and tourism, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 90: Total US retail sales and forecast of vacations and tourism, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 91: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of vacations and tourism, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 92: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 94: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 96: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 97: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 98: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (out of home), at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 99: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (out of home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 100: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks (out of home), at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 101: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (in home), at current prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 102: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic drinks (in home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 103: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks (in home), at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 104: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic drinks, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 105: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 106: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of non-alcoholic drinks, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 107: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at current prices, 2018-28
  • Figure 108: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2018-28
• • Figure 109: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of household care products market, at current prices, 2018-28