Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2012–22
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- Figure 2: Winter holiday shopping outlook, 2022-27
- Opportunities and challenges
- Inflation the single biggest challenge to the winter holiday shopping season
- Reinvent the winter holiday season and promotional calendar
- Embrace partnerships with BNPL providers and shopping portals
- Plan for an expanded physical and digital presence as multichannel shopping becomes the norm
- Leverage social commerce to create interactive online shopping experiences
- Key consumer insights
Market Perspective
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- In spite of challenges, 2021 delivered another year of record sales
- What happened in 2021
- What will happen in 2022
Market Size and Forecast
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- Another year of record growth in 2021; modest growth expected for 2022 as sales stabilize amid widespread inflation
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- Figure 3: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2012–22
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- Figure 4: Intent to spend more, 2021 behavior versus 2022 expectation, by household income, 2022
- Holiday sales remain a critical component to a retailer’s total year
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales* in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2012–22
- Average expenditures held flat in 2021; increases expected in 2022 as prices rise
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- Figure 6: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures, in current dollars, 2016-21
Market Factors
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- Inflation a major threat to consumer purchasing power
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- Figure 7: 12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index for all items, 2021–22
- Figure 8: Disposable personal income change from previous period, 2007–22
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- Figure 9: Financial health, by household income, 2022
- Supply chain issues persist, challenging retailers and frustrating consumers
- Labor shortages show some signs of improvement
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- Figure 10: Unemployment and underemployment, 2007–22
- COVID-19 is still here, but consumers are eager to move on
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- Figure 11: Worry levels regarding COVID-19 exposure and lifestyle disruption, 2020-22
- Evolving technology creates new connection points at retail
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- Figure 12: Forever 21 debuts first virtual store in the metaverse
Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities
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- Competitive strategies
- The deals started early and kept going throughout the season
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- Figure 13: Retailers began promoting holiday promotions in the fall
- Virtual events and livestream shopping supplemented the online shopping experience
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- Figure 14: Walmart and Macy’s leverage virtual winter holiday events
- Figure 15: Target Live: Last Minute Holiday Shopping with The Onyx Family
- Video advertising took a cinematic approach
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- Figure 16: “Black-Owned Friday,” a shoppable film by Google
- Figure 17: Zara presents “O Night Divine,” a short film by Luca Guadagnino
- Retailers amplified social causes
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- Figure 18: Madewell’s 2021 “Do Well Report”
- Market opportunities
- Reimagine the holiday promotional calendar
- BNPL and shopping portals are ripe for expanded partnership opportunities
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- Figure 19: Apple announces “Apple Pay Later” service; Klarna debuts virtual shopping tool
- Circular shopping options add value in a stretched economy
- Consider the return of in-person experiences
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- Figure 20: Amazon’s smart window display, “Alexa in a Pear Tree”
The Winter Holiday Consumer – Fast Facts
Holiday Shopping Participation
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- Holiday optimism grows; consumers expect to celebrate more in 2022
- Nearly all adults plan to participate in winter holiday shopping
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- Figure 21: Winter holiday shopping participation, 2020–22
- Hispanic families enjoy their own Thanksgiving traditions
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- Figure 22: Thanksgiving shopping participation, 2021 versus 2022, by race and Hispanic origin, 2022
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- Figure 23: Northgate Market celebrates Hispanic culture at Thanksgiving
- Younger consumers celebrate friend-focused holidays
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- Figure 24: Intent to shop for select winter holidays, by age, 2022
- New Year’s Eve skews younger
- Friendsgiving gaining ground as a non-official holiday
- Singles’ Day is an untapped opportunity in the US
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- Figure 25: Walmart + Buzzfeed Friendsgiving livestream; Fenty Beauty Singles Day promotion
- LGBTQ+ consumers embrace non-traditional holidays
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- Figure 26: Intent to shop for select winter holidays, by sexual orientation, 2022
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- Figure 27: Leveraging media to connect with LGBTQ+ audiences
Holiday Purchases
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- Most categories rebounded toward prepandemic levels in 2021
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- Figure 28: Items purchased during the winter holidays, 2018–21
- Parents are primary purchasers; moms still take the lead
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- Figure 29: Items purchased during the winter holidays, by gender and parental status, 2022
- Gift cards have the opportunity for universal appeal
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- Figure 30: Gift card purchases by household income; age and household income, 2022
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- Figure 31: Apple gift card stickers
How and Where Consumers Plan to Shop
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- In-store continues to rebound, but multichannel becomes the norm
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- Figure 32: Likely shopping method, 2022
- Consumers across demographics retain online and multichannel shopping habits; Gen Z leads the way back into stores
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- Figure 33: Likely shopping method, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 34: Boy Smells holiday playlist on Spotify
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- Figure 35: Actual and planned in-store shopping behaviors, by generation, 2022
- One-stop shops continue to win out; value retailers expected to grow share of wallet in 2022
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- Figure 36: Likely stores to be shopped, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 37: Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s roll out new concepts
- Circular shopping gains appeal with younger consumers and value-conscious shoppers
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- Figure 38: Likely stores to be shopped – thrift/consignment, by age and household income, 2022
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- Figure 39: GoodBuy Gear “Thrift the Gift” Holiday gift guide
- In their own words: consumers share their go-to holiday retailers
Shopping Timeframe
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- Nearly half of adults plan to do their shopping before Thanksgiving
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- Figure 40: Anticipated shopping timeframe, 2022
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- Figure 41: Anticipated shopping timeframe, by gender and age, 2022
- Emphasis on peak week continues to diminish
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- Figure 42: Behaviors and attitudes related to shopping timeframe, by gender and age, 2022
Shopping Behaviors
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- Conscious consumerism, in-store shopping and gatherings expected to be on the rise in 2022
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- Figure 43: Shopping behaviors, 2022
- Consumer values drive “share of heart”
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- Figure 44: Expected shopping behaviors, conscious consumerism, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 45: Victoria’s Secret women-led VS&Co-Lab; Amazon amplifies small sellers
- Figure 46: Sephora recognizes employee contributions
- Parents take advantage of flexible shopping options
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- Figure 47: Expected shopping behaviors – convenience, by gender and parental status, 2022
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- Figure 48: Affirm highlights stress-free financing for the holidays
Attitudes toward Winter Holiday Shopping
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- Concerns about rising prices will dominate this year; convenience and experience still matter
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- Figure 49: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping, 2022
- Consumers will go out of their way to find the best deals
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- Figure 50: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping – deal-seeking focus, by financial health, 2022
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- Figure 51: Rakuten offers cash back on holiday purchases
- Convenience is critical for parents – especially dads
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- Figure 52: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping – convenience, by gender and parental status, 2022
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- Figure 53: CNET Holiday Gift Guide
- Millennials and Gen Z value winter holiday experiences
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- Figure 54: Ralph Lauren Holiday experiential concepts, “The Winter Escape” on Roblox; drone light show
- Figure 55: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping – experiential, by generation, 2022
- Eco-conscious consumerism a growing trend as climate anxiety grows
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- Figure 56: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping – Environmentally friendly options, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 57: Walmart, Tradlands highlight sustainability initiatives
Winter Holiday Shopping Influences
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- Personal recommendations, sales events and promotions top the list
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- Figure 58: Winter holiday shopping influences, 2022
- Younger consumers significantly driven by media, older consumers favor more traditional influences
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- Figure 59: Winter holiday shopping influences, NET, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 60: Winter holiday shopping influences, by generation, 2022
- Digital experiences capture the attention of Gen Z and Millennials
- Social commerce enables discovery and seamlessness
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- Figure 61: Winter holiday shopping influences – Media, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 62: American Eagle leans into social and digital commerce
- Engagement with TV and streaming ads skews younger, male and multicultural
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- Figure 63: Winter holiday shopping influences, tv/streaming ads, by key demographics, 2022
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- Figure 64: Rocket Mortgage gets creative with QR codes in Super Bowl ad
- Social media platforms used varies widely across age groups
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- Figure 65: Social media channels used for winter holiday shopping, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 66: Social media platform used most often, by generation, 2022
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 68: Anticipated shopping timeframe, 2019-22
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- Figure 69: Social media channels used for winter holiday shopping, 2022
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