Report Summary
“Ambient yogurt is facing declining consumption frequency and low willingness to trade-up. Chilled yogurt, despite its large decline in market value, saw increases in overall consumption frequency. Innovations focused on sugar-free products, patented strains, and improved indulgence brought by mix-ins will help win back the market momentum.”
– Pepper Peng, Research Analyst
This report covers the following issues:
- Future market outlook and growth prospects in the next five years
- COVID-19’s impact on the yogurt market and market value forecast under different scenarios
- The performance of chilled and ambient yogurt and how each segment will evolve
- Latest product trends and growth opportunities
- Changes in consumption frequency and trading up/down willingness in the future
- Consumption barrier and repurchase trigger of different price range yogurt
- Preference for mix-ins and packaging type in terms of yogurt with mix-ins
Table of Contents
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Overview
- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Covered in this Report
- Definitions
- What you need to know
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Executive Summary
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- The market
- Retracement in both value and volume
- Figure 1: Total value sales of yogurt, China, 2016-21
- Chilled yogurt witnesses a larger drop than ambient yogurt
- The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2022
- Figure 2: Summary of Mintel’s scenario expectations and the impact on the yogurt market, 2022
- Figure 3: COVID-19 scenario value forecasts for yogurt, 2016-26
- Companies and brands
- Strong chilled line and sugar-free line for better survival
- Figure 4: Leading yogurt companies, by value share*, 2020-21
- Buoyant innovation activities with new directions
- The consumer
- A harvest year for chilled spoonable yogurt in terms of consumption frequency
- Figure 5: Consumption frequency, 2022
- Taste and price are the biggest consumption barriers
- Figure 6: Consumption barrier, 2022
- For middle-to-high-end chilled yogurt, fortified nutrients and unique strains are priorities
- Figure 7: Repurchase trigger, by price level, 2022
- Consumers’ choices: fruits mix-ins and separate mix-ins on the top
- Figure 8: Yogurt with mix-ins, by type of mix-ins, 2022
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- Figure 9: Yogurt with mix-ins – Type of package wanted, 2022
- Ambient yogurt is facing a challenge in trading up
- Figure 10: Trading up and down, by dairy sector, 2022
- Consumers expect special strains
- Figure 11: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, by yogurt type consumed, 2022
- What we think
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Issues and Insights
- Aligning sugar claims with true tastes
- Figure 12: LB81 chilled yogurt line from Meiji, China
- Upgrade fun and taste: go for mix-ins with improved experiences
- Figure 13: Grape Yogurt with Konjac Jelly, Japan, 2021
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- Figure 14: Examples of yogurt with water chestnut burst
- Figure 15: Water chestnut is used as an added ingredient to enrich taste in on-premise coffee orders
- Figure 16: Collagen Peptide Yogurt with Fruit Bits and Bursting Balls, China, 2021
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- Figure 17: Meiji’s bubble tea yogurt, Japan, 2019
- How to differentiate: harness special strains like proprietary chips
- Figure 18: Hokkai Pastures Dairy LP28 Yogurt
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- Figure 19: Examples of yogurt with patented strains in the Japan market
- Figure 20: Werdery introduced patented probiotics for allergy, China, 2021
- Aligning sugar claims with true tastes
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Market Size and Segmentation
- Yogurt retreats in both value and volume
- Figure 21: Total value sales of yogurt, China, 2016-21
- Figure 22: Total volume sales of yogurt, China, 2016-21
- Ambient yogurt is more resilient than chilled yogurt
- Figure 23: Total value sales of ambient yogurt, China, 2016-21
- Figure 24: Total value sales of chilled yogurt, China, 2016-21
- Yogurt retreats in both value and volume
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Market Factor
- Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents 2022 released
- Food safety issues receive more attention
- Feed prices stay high
- Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents 2022 released
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COVID Influences (Including Market Forecast)
- COVID-19 China context
- COVID-19 impact on the market and consumer
- Drop in financial confidence in the future
- Figure 25: Future outlook towards financial status (%), 2022
- Gen Z has lower interest in trading up dairy products
- Figure 26: Shopping plan – Dairy products, 2022
- Market forecast
- Investment and innovation in sugar-free products will drive growth under a minimum-impact scenario
- Figure 27: COVID-19 scenario value forecasts for yogurt, 2016-26
- Less cost-effective and limited accessibility will pull consumption down in a medium-impact scenario
- A disrupted supply chain will harm sales in a high-impact scenario
- COVID-19 China context
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Market Share
- Strong chilled line for better survival
- Figure 28: Leading yogurt companies, by value share*, 2020-21
- Junlebao benefits from sugar-free yogurt line
- Strong chilled line for better survival
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Marketing Activities
- Mengniu shoots documentary about probiotics discovery
- Figure 29: A journey of probiotics discovery, Mengniu,2022
- Lepur introduces recycling plan
- Figure 30: Lepur’s recycle plan season 1, 2021
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- Figure 31: Introduction of care seeds and usage
- Mengniu shoots documentary about probiotics discovery
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New Product Trend
- Share of spoonable yogurt in new launches has potential
- Figure 32: Spoonable yogurt share in new launches of yogurt, by selected markets, 2017 (June) – 2022 (May)
- Reduced sugar/sugar-free yogurt is blooming
- Figure 33: Average sugar (g per 100g/ml) in yogurt, China, 2017 (June) – 2022 (May)
- Figure 34: New launches share of yogurt with reduced sugar/sugar-free claims, China, 2017 (June) – 2022 (May)
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- Figure 35: Reducing sugar-related claims in yogurt, China, 2017 (June) – 2022 (May)
- Figure 36: Yogurt with reduced/zero-sugar claims, by storage, China, 2017(June) – 2022(May)
- Figure 37: Top 10 sweet substitutes used in yogurt with reduced/zero-sugar claims, China, 2017 (June) – 2022 (May)
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- Figure 38: Hema has a special label for sucrose-free yogurt
- Figure 39: Examples of sucrose-free yogurt, China, 2021-22
- Figure 40: Yogurt with no sucrose and no sugar substitute, Niu Mao Hei Hei, China, 2022
- Uncover the “new” fruits flavour
- Figure 41: Top 10 flavour component group in new launches of yogurt, China, 2017 (June) – 2022 (May)
- Figure 42: Top 10 fruit flavours in new launches of yogurt, China, 2017 (June) – 2022 (May)
- Tropical flavour, vacation vibe
- Figure 43: Examples of pineapple flavour, China, 2022
- Figure 44: Examples of coconut flavour, China, 2021-22
- Figure 45: Examples of lychee flavour, China, 2021-22
- Fruit & herbs/spice combination
- Figure 46: Examples of fruits and herbs/spice flavoured coffee, China, 2021-22
- Figure 47: Lemon & Turmeric Flavoured Yogurt, Hema, 2020
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- Figure 48: Basil Apple Flavoured Ice Cream, Mengniu, 2022
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- Figure 49: Examples of fruits and herbs/spice flavoured yogurt, global, 2022
- Package format: separate mix-ins on the top and flip cup
- Figure 50: Original Flavoured Yogurt with Mixed Crunchy Milk Almond and Popping Candy, China, 2021
- Figure 51: Examples of flip cup yogurt, China, 2022
- Share of spoonable yogurt in new launches has potential
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Consumption Frequency
- Chilled spoonable yogurt is better-off
- Figure 52: Consumption frequency, 2022
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- Figure 53: Difference in consumption frequency among consumers aged 18-49, 2021-22
- Figure 54: Consumption barriers – Too many food additives, by sector, 2022
- Who contributes the most to chilled spoonable yogurt?
- Figure 55: Difference in consumption frequency, by age (18-49), 2021-22
- Figure 56: Percentage points change of usage in chilled spoonable yogurt, by household income, 2022
- Chilled spoonable yogurt is better-off
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Consumption Barriers
- Taste and price are the biggest barriers
- Figure 57: Consumption barrier, 2022
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- Figure 58: Non-users, by segmentation, 2022
- Figure 59: Comparison of average price (RMB/KG), 2021-22
- Younger generations pay more attention to the actual effect of aiding digestion
- Figure 60: Consumption barriers – Not effective in aiding digestion, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 61: Probio yogurt LG 21 line from Meiji, Japan, 2020-21
- Barriers varied among yogurt sector
- Figure 62: Consumption barriers – Not easy to store, by consumer group, 2022
- Figure 63: Consumption barriers – Too many food additives, by consumer group, 2022
- Taste and price are the biggest barriers
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Repurchase Trigger
- RMB5-10 is the most repurchased price range for chilled yogurt
- Figure 64: Repurchase trigger – Consumers haven’t brought/repurchased, by price level, 2022
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- Figure 65: Buying products at same/similar price, 2021-22
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- Figure 66: Repurchase trigger – Consumers haven’t brought/repurchased, by generations, by price level, 2022
- Figure 67: Repurchase trigger – Consumers haven’t brought/repurchased, by city tiers, by price level, 2022
- Fortified nutrition and special strains are priorities for middle-to high-end chilled yogurt
- Figure 68: Repurchase trigger by price level averages, 2022
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- Figure 69: Repurchase trigger, by price level, 2022
- What do heavy users value?
- Fortified nutrition and special strains
- Figure 70: Repurchase trigger of chilled yogurt priced at RMB5-10, by consumer group*, 2022
- Taste upgrading: mix-ins and sweetness
- Figure 71: Percentage triggers by points difference of chilled yogurt heavy users and light users, 2022
- RMB5-10 is the most repurchased price range for chilled yogurt
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Yogurt with Mix-ins
- Fruits mix-ins are still the apple of consumers’ eyes
- Figure 72: Yogurt with mix-ins, by type of mix-ins, 2022
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- Figure 73: Yogurt with mix-ins – Burst, by age, 2022
- Flip cup is popular in females and tier 1 cities
- Figure 74: Yogurt with mix-ins – Type of package wanted, 2022
- Figure 75: Type of package wanted, by gender, 2022
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- Figure 76: Type of package wanted, by city tier, 2022
- Unique combination: tea drinks mix-ins inside the yogurt and on the bottom
- Figure 77: Interest (%) in combinations of mix-ins and package type, 2022
- Fruits mix-ins are still the apple of consumers’ eyes
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Trading Up and Down
- Ambient yogurt is facing challenges
- Figure 78: Trading up and down, by dairy sector, 2022
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- Figure 79: Trading up and down – I will not buy in the next 3 months, by age, 2022
- Figure 80: Trading up and down – I will not buy in the next 3 months, by city tier, 2022
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- Figure 81: Trading up and down interest, by dairy sector, 2022
- Heavy users of chilled yogurt have more interest in trading up chilled yogurt
- Figure 82: Trading up and down interest in chilled yogurt, by consumer group*, 2022
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- Figure 83: Trading up and down interest in chilled yogurt, by consumer group*, 2022
- Ambient yogurt is facing challenges
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Attitudes towards Yogurt
- Yogurt is more of a gut health supplement
- Figure 84: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, by age, 2022
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- Figure 85: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, by monthly household income, 2022
- Figure 86: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, by consumer group*, 2022
- Consumers ask for special strains
- Figure 87: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, by yogurt type consumed, 2022
- Figure 88: Attitudes towards yogurt – CHAID
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- Figure 89: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, by consumer group*, 2022
- Opportunities to shape consumers’ perceptions remained high
- Figure 90: Perception of probiotics – Gut health, 2022
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- Figure 91: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, 2022
- Figure 92: Selected attitudes towards yogurt, by consumer group*, 2022
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- Figure 93: Live & Active Cultures of International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) in US and example of certificated yogurt
- Figure 94: Introduction page of the number of factory tested live cultures and triple plant-capsulation, Werdery, China
- Yogurt is more of a gut health supplement
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Food Persona
- Who are they?
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- Figure 95: Food persona, 2022
- Figure 96: Food persona, by gender, 2022
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- Figure 97: Food persona, by generation, 2022
- Critical shoppers are function-oriented premium yogurt selectors
- Figure 98: Repurchase trigger – Above RMB10, by food persona, 2022
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- Figure 99: Selected attitude towards yogurt, by food persona, 2022
- Critical shoppers who repurchase mix-ins love almost all mix-ins
- Figure 100: Yogurt with mix-ins, by food persona, 2022
- Who are they?
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 101: Total market value and forecast of yogurt in minimum-impact, China, 2016-26
- Figure 102: Total volume sales of yogurt, China, 2016-21
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Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 103: Total value sales of ambient yogurt, China, 2016-21
- Figure 104: Total value sales of chilled yogurt, China, 2016-21
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Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
- Methodology
- CHAID analysis methodology
- Abbreviations
- Methodology
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