UK B2B Economic Outlook – Winter 2023
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Description
“The UK, along with other Western economies, is grappling with a perfect storm caused by rocketing fuel prices following the conflict in Ukraine and the inflationary consequences of the post-COVID boom in demand. The sharp rise in inflation seen in 2022 has stimulated interest rate rises which in turn contribute to a slowing economy. Opinion on the depth and length of an inevitable recession vary significantly, but clearly 2023 is going to be a difficult year and unemployment can be expected to rise despite the growing skills shortages in critical sectors.”
– Terry Leggett, Principal Analyst
This Report looks at the following areas:
- Economic overview
- Business health
- Special focus: Construction
- What’s next?
Table of Contents
-
Overview
- Summary
- Economic overview
- CPI increasing sharply
- Bank rate – highest in 14 years, but more to come
- Public sector borrowing
- Unemployment
- Earnings growth
- Business health
- Business investment
- Business confidence falling
- Productivity
- Company births and deaths rising in 2021
- Special focus: Construction
- GDP exaggerated again
- Housing
- Industrial new construction
- Commercial new construction
- Public sector non-residential construction
- Infrastructure
- Repair and maintenance
- What’s next?
- GDP
- Figure 1: measures of GDP, CPI and Bank Rates, Q4 2022-25, (%)
- Unemployment
-
Economic Overview
- GDP
- Figure 2: UK GDP, 2016-2022, (% quarter-on-quarter change)
-
- Figure 3: Monthly output index of UK sectors, 2020-22, (Index)
- CPI
- Figure 4: 12-month CPI rate, 2020-2022, (%)
- Bank rate
- Figure 5: UK Bank of England interest base rate, 2021-22, (%)
- Public sector borrowing
-
- Figure 6: Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks, 2020-22, (£ million)
- Figure 7: Public sector debt compared with GDP, 2020-22, (% of GDP)
- UK Structure
- Figure 8: Structure of the UK economy, by sector, financial year 2021/22, (£ billion)
-
- Figure 9: Structure of the UK economy, by size of company, 2022, (% of turnover)
-
- Figure 10: Trends in UK economy, by company size, 2016-22, (£ billion)
- Employment and unemployment
- Figure 11: UK employment rate, July-September 2008-22, (%)
-
- Figure 12: UK unemployment rate, September-November 2008-22, (%)
- Earnings growth
- Figure 13: Regular and total pay changes, in nominal and real terms, 2020-22, (% change)
- GDP
-
Business Health
- Business investment
- Figure 14: Seasonally adjusted business investment, 2000-2022, (Index)
- Business confidence
- Figure 15: ICAEW UK National Business ConfidenceTM index, Q2 2008 – Q4 2022, (Index)
- Productivity
-
- Figure 16: UK productivity, output per hour, 2008-22, (Index)
- Business births and deaths
- Figure 17: Business births and deaths, 2017-22, (number)
- Business investment
-
Special Focus: Construction
- General
- Figure 18: UK GDP, new construction and RMI growth comparison, 2007-2022, (annual % change)
- Housing
- Figure 19: The new housebuilding market, 2007-22, (£ billion)
-
- Figure 20: Housing completions in England, by sector, 1970-2022, (number)
-
- Figure 21: House price inflation, 2019-22, (annual % change)
- Private industrial construction
- Figure 22: Private industrial construction activity, 2007-2022, (£ billion)
-
- Figure 23: Factory and warehouse construction, 2016-22, (£ billion)
- Private commercial construction
- Figure 24: Private commercial construction activity, 2007-2022, (£ billion)
- Figure 25: Segmentation of commercial construction market, 2016-22, (£ million)
- New public non-residential construction
-
- Figure 26: Long term development of public non-residential construction, 1970-2022, (£ million)
- Figure 27: Segmentation of public non-residential construction, 2016-22, (£ million)
- New infrastructure
- Figure 28: New infrastructure activity, 2007-22, (£ billion)
-
- Figure 29: Segmentation of new infrastructure construction, 2016-22 (£ million)
- Repair, maintenance and improvement
- Figure 30: Repair, maintenance and improvement activity, 2007-22, (£ billion)
- General
-
What’s Next?
- The economy
- Figure 31: measures of GDP, CPI and Bank Rates, Q4 2022-25, (%)
-
- Figure 32: Median City and non-city forecasts for GDP and CPI, 2022-26, (%)
- Unemployment
- Figure 33: Forecast unemployment, Q4 2022-25, (%)
- The economy
-
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
- Abbreviations
About the report
This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.
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Data
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*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.
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